U.S. Ladies [#24]: Starr-Ting Order/Detailed Classification

[Marco]

I wanna give a certain amount of credit for "transforming" Ashley to Philip Mills. I do think Ashley has a lot of natural charisma in her which wasn't necessarily brought out with her earlier programs. Philip gave her the right vehicles, and together with John, "put her together".

 

[Marco]

IMHO we have 4 clear medal frontrunners. (Tennell, Bell, Cui, Liu.)

The competition between Bell and Cui is an interesting one. Bell has been competing internationally for a few seasons and has been medaling at events as high up as Skate America. Cui's score matches her but is probably seen by more as a junior freshly coming up. I wonder if Cui's PCS would be held down at Nationals compared to Bell who incidentally does have some amazingly fitting programs for her.

Cui will probably need to quite clearly outjump Bell to stand a chance.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I think Ashley had naturally more charisma than Bradie, but I would not call her a performer until later in her career

I'm reminded of a story that Louis Stong told about his experience from first working with Kurt Browning. Stong had a range of musical styles, and played them one after the other to see how Browning would interpret them. Jazz, classical, modern, hip hop, Broadway, blues, rock, pop. You name it. Stong stepped further and further backwards with each performance, thinking, "My God. Is there nothing he can't do?"

My thinking is that Bradie's team should give her the same kind of opportunity, and see what she is good at, and likes to do, too. Whether her style is a result of IJS and its many creative restrictions, it all feels a little bit scripted.

 

[Eeyora1]

I'm sure the Michelle moving up story was during the Nationals TV broadcast. My imperfect memory thinks it was during a spotlight story about her during her first competition at Nationals. But I'm sure Michelle's fans remember more accurately. (I personally never had any of her early competitions on video tape). Maybe the story wasn't shared until the following year. In any case, she moved up to seniors quite young. There was media attention at a very young age. And she not only survived the experience. She now gets referenced as an example of a mature athlete. Everyone is young once. Many of the greats were once young phenoms, gaining attention and competitive scores by pushing the technical barrier and outjumping their peers. Michelle is a classic example.

So I do think this is relevant to the current discussion. And I do totally empathize with those who are ready to move forward again to discuss the athletes competing today.

I believe the piece on her was featured during the 1993 Nationals exhibitions.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

The competition between Bell and Cui is an interesting one. Bell has been competing internationally for a few seasons and has been medaling at events as high up as Skate America. Cui's score matches her but is probably seen by more as a junior freshly coming up. I wonder if Cui's PCS would be held down at Nationals compared to Bell who incidentally does have some amazingly fitting programs for her.

Cui will probably need to quite clearly outjump Bell to stand a chance.

Until her last international, Cui was a better short program skater, and Bell, the better free skater. It will be interesting to see how they go head-to-head in Detroit.

 

[WillyElliot]

I consider Mariah Bell to be a 2018/9 version of a Jenny Kirk. As in, close but no cigar or not even close to the cigar bar. She has cuteness and perkiness galore. Phhhht. We want a real skater. I say go with Ting. But what do I know. I call the World Team Bradie and Ting. I'd love Alysa to win too.

 

[Marco]

Until her last international, Cui was a better short program skater, and Bell, the better free skater. It will be interesting to see how they go head-to-head in Detroit.

Sure - if Bell goes clean with that short program, she can and will bring the house down, whereas I am guessing less members of the audience would be familiar with Cui.

Now that Wagner and Rippon are gone and Chen is not around, Bell and Brezina are suddenly the big brother and sister there, and it shows.

 

[Spun Silver]

I consider Mariah Bell to be a 2018/9 version of a Jenny Kirk. As in, close but no cigar or not even close to the cigar bar. She has cuteness and perkiness galore. Phhhht. We want a real skater. I say go with Ting. But what do I know. I call the World Team Bradie and Ting. I'd love Alysa to win too.

I couldn't disagree more. Mariah is NOT cute and perky - unless you are only looking at her face. She has "everything you could want in a lady's skater," to quote Scott Hamilton -- except consistency. She has such beautiful clear technique (at least so it appears to my non-skater's eyes), perfect posture -- I always feel I am watching a thoroughbred. She's the real skater, IMO. Bradie is a journeyman skater by comparison. Nonetheless, when so much comes down to the jumps, Bradie has the edge. But then, Mariah has Raf. It will be interesting for sure.

We agree on Ting and Alysa. I do hope Ting makes the team.

 

[layman]

Getting excited for US Nationals... Let's look at how the contenders stack up!

IMHO we have 4 clear medal frontrunners. (Tennell, Bell, Cui, Liu.) Bubbling under the surface are 6 others who could potentially challenge for the pewter (Lin, Hicks, Andrews, Wessenberg, Glenn, Harrell.) As for Chen... who knows.

Here are the top 15 seasons best US ladies:
9 - 206.41 Bradie TENNELL USA ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2018 21.09.2018
17 - 199.79 Ting CUI USA ISU CS Tallinn Trophy 2018 29.11.2018
18 - 198.96 Mariah BELL USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2018 10.11.2018
37 - 181.21 Ashley LIN USA ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2018 28.09.2018
41 - 178.07 Courtney HICKS USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2018 10.11.2018
47 - 174.72 Starr ANDREWS USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2018 27.10.2018
56 - 170.33 Megan WESSENBERG USA ISU GP Skate America 2018 21.10.2018
**59 - 166.25 Amber GLENN USA ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2018 14.09.2018
67 - 160.99 Angela WANG USA ISU CS Finlandia Trophy Espoo 2018 07.10.2018
69 - 160.60 Pooja KALYAN USA ISU JGP Bratislava 2018 25.08.2018
*71 - 159.86 Gabriella IZZO USA ISU JGP Canada 2018 14.09.2018 (*competing Junior at Nats)
**76 - 157.08 Hanna HARRELL USA ISU JGP Armenian Cup 2018 12.10.2018
*81 - 154.56 Katie MCBEATH USA ISU CS 26th Ondrej Nepela Trophy 2018 22.09.2018 (*DNQ for Nats)
**105 - 143.07 Akari NAKAHARA USA ISU CS US International FS Classic 2018 15.09.2018
**107 - 141.61 Brynne MCISAAC USA ISU CS US International FS Classic 2018 15.09.2018

**Ladies from the above on an upward trajectory:
Amber Glenn's sectional score was 184.63
Hanna Harrell's sectional score was 173.05
Akari Nakahara's sectionals score was 169.06
Brynne McIsaac's sectional score was 161.73

In addition, a few ladies not mentioned above might be competitive here:
Alysa Liu (sectionals score 212.97)
Karen Chen (pending recovery)
Gracie Gold (pending readiness)
I suppose it's also possible Wagner or Nagasu competes, but it seems highly unlikely.

Thanks for the breakdown. Based on these scores US Nationals will probably be:
1. Liu (not age eligible for junior or senior internationals)
2. Tennell
3. Cui
4. Bell

Then it's going to be up to the committee to select the World Teams. It could be Tennell and Cui for senior Worlds or if they decide to send Cui to junior Worlds, the senior World team will be Tennell and Bell.

 

[her grace]

Thanks for the breakdown. Based on these scores US Nationals will probably be:
1. Liu (not age eligible for junior or senior internationals)
2. Tennell
3. Cui
4. Bell

The Season Best scores can be a bit misleading, though, because it only takes your best score. Cui has been inconsistent this season with international scores of 199.79, 172.74, and 156.04. Bell, OTOH, has become a fairly reliable competitor with scores staying in a similar range: 198.96, 196.60, 190.25, 188.97. Note, though, that both skaters' scores have risen with each competition so they are both on an upward trajectory.

 

[Dobre]

Agreed. Though of course, you can't compare junior vs. senior scores. Both Mariah & Ting have what it takes to make the team, but they are going to have to step it up in competition at Nationals or trust to the vagaries of fate. Both have issues staying focused all the way through a program. Hopefully, Mariah has gained from her experience over the past couple seasons. (It seems likely). And perhaps Ting will come in without too many expectations. (Seems likely much of the attention will be on Bradie and possibly Alysa). I'd love to see a strong competition for both Ting & Mariah. I won't underestimate the field, however. It's not like most of the other U.S. ladies have been maxing out their scoring potential.

 

[layman]

Agreed. Though of course, you can't compare junior vs. senior scores....

These are all senior (best) scores though as far as I can tell. Liu was skating as a senior at sectionals right? The other ladies earned their SB scores at senior competitions.

 

[euterpe]

A sectionals score is going to be far more inflated than a score earned at an ISU competition.

 

[layman]

A sectionals score is going to be far more inflated than a score earned at an ISU competition.

Yes but I think the Nationals scores are similar to those at Sectionals. If Liu's Sectionals Score holds up at Nationals (presuming she skates the same way), she will be the Champ.

 

[Coco]

Her skating greatly matured during that time, but ALOT had to do with SkateDad Danny actually listening to advice about 'maturing' her look. He didn't want make-up or hair and liked her in a pink dress. Thankfully SD Danny took the advice. One wonders had she matured her look even the slightest (bun, barely there makeup) if she would have won 1995 Worlds in Birmingham. Her skating was small, but she brought down the house that night. And she would have been forever the youngest World champion for all of history.

The scores going up because of Kwan maturing her look is a very popular narrative.

No one ever mentions that she got WAY faster between '95 worlds and the fall of '95.

 

[gkelly]

The scores going up because of Kwan maturing her look is a very popular narrative.

No one ever mentions that she got WAY faster between '95 worlds and the fall of '95.

And added a triple-triple.

One could say she improved the "whole package." But the contents were more important than the wrapping.

 

[VGThuy]

The scores going up because of Kwan maturing her look is a very popular narrative.

No one ever mentions that she got WAY faster between '95 worlds and the fall of '95.

Agreed. I think the media harping on her whole new look was obviously a more compelling narrative, but I think it was the wrong lesson to take from what happened. It wasn't just the look that changed but Kwan building up and improving the actual skating coupled with the improved packaging that made it work. It wasn't just a cosmetic change. I think those who just think all a skater needs is to change the package and put their skaters' hair in a bun, put on make up, and dress better missed the entire message of what Frank and Michelle did to get her from 4th to 1st.

 

[MrMystery]

Completely agree that there was a strong narrative around MK's transformation, because it surely was a compelling one. I agree with others, her skating did improve a lot between '95 Worlds and the fall of '95, but I do think the transformation holds water. One of the most noticeable transformations in the sport.

 

[VGThuy]

I also think Kwan's transformation for some reason still didn't look too pageant-like. Some times when I see junior skaters with really packaged looks, especially in the U.S., it can look a bit like they came from a pageant factory where they all wear similar looking dresses with similar hairstyles and make-up and it's too soon for them to be looking that way. And since they start off looking like that, the impact of any transformation can't really exist. It got to the point where I loved Marin Honda's pigtail look in her last year of juniors because it was like they weren't afraid to illustrate that she was still a young, vibrant skater.

 

[WillyElliot]

The scores going up because of Kwan maturing her look is a very popular narrative.

No one ever mentions that she got WAY faster between '95 worlds and the fall of '95.

Umm, read the first seven words of my post..... I also think with a more mature look, it also translates to more mature skating.

 

[kwanatic]

Yeah until the Black Swan program Ashley was really boring to watch. That program really revitalized both her career and her image on the ice. Even after that it took her some time to get as good at performing as she was by the Moulin Rouge era of programs.

I wouldn't call Ashley boring prior to 2011-2012 but she didn't really stand out either. Granted that was during the 2008-2010 period when skaters like Alissa, Rachael, Mirai and even Caroline were getting more attention despite the fact Ashley was right there in the mix with them. She placed well prior to her emergence as a real medal threat, only missing the US podium once (2010) and placing top 5 at all of her GP events during that period and even 4th at the 2009 GPF.

I feel like the switch to John Nicks and Philip Mills was the right combination needed to make people take notice of Ashley. Nicks took her presentation (which was solid to begin with) and amped it up, giving her a more commanding and confident presence on the ice which caused people to take notice. She also did a much better job at staying focused and executing her content. And of course Mills choreography was a perfect vehicle for this new Ashley. It all came together for her and she began winning which gave her confidence. Her confidence made her stand out from nearly all of the other US women. From then onward she carried that confidence with her and it shaped her performance and skating during her peak years.

I couldn't disagree more. Mariah is NOT cute and perky - unless you are only looking at her face. She has "everything you could want in a lady's skater," to quote Scott Hamilton -- except consistency. She has such beautiful clear technique (at least so it appears to my non-skater's eyes), perfect posture -- I always feel I am watching a thoroughbred. She's the real skater, IMO. Bradie is a journeyman skater by comparison. Nonetheless, when so much comes down to the jumps, Bradie has the edge. But then, Mariah has Raf. It will be interesting for sure.

We agree on Ting and Alysa. I do hope Ting makes the team.

I feel like Mariah has a good shot at winning nationals this season. She has the best pair of programs out of all of the US women (hands down) and when she's on, she has that intangible quality that Bradie lacks. Bradie reminds me of Rachael Flatt--solid competitor, technical goods, no major weaknesses but also lacks that star quality that sparkles on the ice. As of now that sparkle is still missing for Bradie. It's obvious she's trying and I respect that...but it's not there. Hopefully she will find it at some point but she may not and that's okay.

Mariah OTOH has the sparkle in spades. She's always been an engaging performer and now that she's skating stronger it's beginning to really show. A clean performance of her programs will bring the house down and send her PCS soaring. I still feel like she's behind Bradie (as she's the reigning champ and has skated well so far) and if Liu goes off and skates well everyone will be buried by her TES...but I think Mariah has showstopper potential this year, much more than any year in the past.

Nationals should be an interesting competition that's for sure.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

The Season Best scores can be a bit misleading, though, because it only takes your best score. Cui has been inconsistent this season with international scores of 199.79, 172.74, and 156.04. Bell, OTOH, has become a fairly reliable competitor with scores staying in a similar range: 198.96, 196.60, 190.25, 188.97. Note, though, that both skaters' scores have risen with each competition so they are both on an upward trajectory.

I agree. I have been following Cui for a few years and until just a month or two ago she is wildly inconsistent and also hasn't ever gone to a JGPF.

I will be interested to see how she is judged by a senior panel. I think it will either be Bradie or Alysa for the national title. Mariah is another inconsistent skater. She will rock one program but usually not both.

 

[toddlj]

I probably say this every year, and sadly am wrong every year, but Amber Glenn is definitely a dark horse for the podium.

 

[Frida80]

I think this is Bradie's to lose. She's been very consistent this year in he FS and finally switched her combo in her SP leading to her 72 in GS. Last year she got a 219 at Nationals. This year should be even higher with her larger BV.

I think Mariah will make the world team but won't win because she always botches her SP. she's only has one clean one in three seasons. There is something about her triple triple that just isn't clicking. Her BV is much lower than Bradie's, so she needs Bradie to makes some mistakes to win.

Alysa is probably going to make the podium unless the pressure gets to her. She often underrotates or pops her 3A, but lands everything else clean. Unfortunately her PCS score will be held down just like Nathan's was in 2016. That will nullify her triple axel advantage.

I would bet on Ting if it weren't for Tom Z. I do love him, but when the stakes are really high his skaters seem to have melt downs. I remember when Mirai nailed her SP in 2017 and Tom was pushing for her to add her 3A in her FS. She did a practice with it but didn't add it. Unfortunately the layout changed so much that she botched her substitute jump layout and lost a chance to go to Worlds. This has happened mutliple times with several skaters. Now that Ting has a chance to go to senior Worlds already, I worry that she may have a similar meltdown. But I think she is definitely in the running for JW along with Hanna Harrell.

 

[gkelly]

Umm, read the first seven words of my post..... I also think with a more mature look, it also translates to more mature skating.

More likely the other way around: More mature skating contributes to a more mature look.

 

[VGThuy]

I have a feeling that if Mariah skates well, then the judges may go her way in a close call between her and Bradie. I think Cui and Liu will only beat them if Mariah and Bradie give subpar skates and leave too many points on the table TES wise for them to break through with clean skates given their level of skating in comparison to Bradie and Mariah.

 

[Vagabond]

A sectionals score is going to be far more inflated than a score earned at an ISU competition.

The score for a program with a landed quadruple jump or triple axel is also going to be far more inflated than one with nothing beyond a triple lutz.

 

[Sylvia]

Cross-posting this link here and in the U.S. Men's threads... USFS' Mitch Moyer and Justin Dillon spoke about Ting Cui, Hanna Harrell, Pooja Kalyan and Alysa Liu of the Emerging Athletes Program in this reprinted article from the November issue of SKATING magazine: https://usfigureskatingfanzone.com/...-expectations-high-for-emerging-athletes.aspx

 

[Frida80]

The score for a program with a landed quadruple jump or triple axel is also going to be far more inflated than one with nothing beyond a triple lutz.

Not really. When it comes to sectionals scores, there pretty similar to national score. Unless the skater is super artistic and then they'll get a huge inflation. Skaters that are more technical don't get national inflation. Alysa score is probably at its limit, while Bradie is looking at 230 if she's clean at nationals.

This happened in men's in 2016. Adam won with only one quad which he fell and underrotated. Nathan was third with four clean quads.

 

[RoseRed]

Yes but I think the Nationals scores are similar to those at Sectionals. If Liu's Sectionals Score holds up at Nationals (presuming she skates the same way), she will be the Champ.

Except that Bradie's SB is international, and thus would go up quite a bit with Nationals inflation. You can't count on the gap between the international score and the sectionals score remaining the same.