U.S. Ladies [#25]: Method in the Madness

[b-man]

That was San Jose 2018

OK, I was at both in person, I guess the grey cells may be failing.

 

[Maximillian]

I think this Worlds demonstrated that Mariah and Bradie have pretty much hit their ceilings in terms of results with their current tech. content, if either wants to make a push toward the top 5 without relying on multiple meltdowns in the field, they'll have to add more. And since PCS is so often contingent on TES, neither should expect that their second mark is going to hit the 1-5 ranking calibre while their TES stays at 6-10. JMO...

 

[Jammers]

I think this Worlds demonstrated that Mariah and Bradie have pretty much hit their ceilings in terms of results with their current tech. content, if either wants to make a push toward the top 5 without relying on multiple meltdowns in the field, they'll have to add more. And since PCS is so often contingent on TES, neither should expect that their second mark is going to hit the 1-5 ranking calibre while their TES stays at 6-10. JMO...

I agree. I think the next group of girls coming up are the ones that will get the US back in the top 5 though it may take some time. Bradie just isn't going to get the PCS needed and Mariah is limited technically. Neither are well balanced skaters which is what is needed along with quads and 3axels. Someone like Ting has nice jumps already and her style and natural gracefulness will get high PCS especially if she ever gets consistent Alysa is obviously a question mark until she grows and gets more speed and shows that her jumps won't go away and Hanna right now is a just jumper but needs to work on other things along with pushing the envelop technically but they are all young and have time to make massive improvements. Bradie and Mariah especially i'm not sure what more they can do.

 

[Coco]

Unless, of course, there is a major change in how GOE is applied. It was kind of shocking how far down in the pack Zagitova was on her jump metrics (height & speed).

 

[VGThuy]

Unless, of course, there is a major change in how GOE is applied. It was kind of shocking how far down in the pack Zagitova was on her jump metrics (height & speed).

Not sure if that would help Mariah much though. Bradie is another story.

 

[natsulian]

What the ladies have said about the off season thus far:
• Alysa - Training a 4T, 4S, 4Lz (?), and working on skating skills/spins
• Ting - Training the 4T, might keep her Short for next season, and a new Free
• Hanna - Training the 4T, 3A, and new combos

I hope Hanna works on her skating skills/spins and maintains energy throughout the entire program because her jumps lose the huge height near the end of her programs. Ting needs to really work on consistency, but she’s a late bloomer who really starts to put forth high scores near the end of the season. Alysa is consistent, but sometimes gets under-rotation calls even in domestic competitions and needs even more speed.

 

[Rhino]

Should Bradie include the 3Lz-3Lo next season? If she keeps growing artistically, gets even more GOE's on her jumps, and goes clean, then she'll definitely win over the judges next season, and it seems that the 3Lz-3Lo kept her from doing that. I think the Free at Worlds was not only a sigh of relief, but a huge burden off her back. Now she can really work on stabilizing the harder combos and being artistic. I think she was taken aback when the season did not go as planned, and had to dig herself out of a hole after the judges cremated her with under-rotation calls after a bad start to the season.

I'm hoping she goes for a dramatic Free with the same layout as Worlds, but keeps her Short and develops it even further. I don't think I've ever seen her perform that well... ever. She's got the goods to score 218-222 if everything goes well next season.

Bradie should have a go at 2A-3Lo or 3S-3Lo, allows you to do 2 flips and lutzs in the long, and without having to do a Euler. Even has a little GOE bonus because of the 3Lo being the highest value jump in the combination unlike in 3Lz or 3F-3Lo.

Layout -
3Lz-3T
2A-3Lo say
3F-2T-2Lo
3Lz
3F
3S
2A

Same BV as Alina's before 10% stuff even without 3Lz or 3F-3Lo.

 

[Coco]

What is the rule on GOE for combinations?

 

[gkelly]

What is the rule on GOE for combinations?

The value of the GOE is that each plus or minus is worth 10% of the value of the highest value jump in the element.

Or did you mean how do judges decide where to reward and penalize?

 

[Coco]

No, you answered the question.

So falling on a 2a3t2t is not - 4.45 , just negative 2.15.

I don't know if I agree, but I see the logic.

 

[layman]

What the ladies have said about the off season thus far:
• Alysa - Training a 4T, 4S, 4Lz (?), and working on skating skills/spins
• Ting - Training the 4T, might keep her Short for next season, and a new Free
• Hanna - Training the 4T, 3A, and new combos

I hope Hanna works on her skating skills/spins and maintains energy throughout the entire program because her jumps lose the huge height near the end of her programs. Ting needs to really work on consistency, but she’s a late bloomer who really starts to put forth high scores near the end of the season. Alysa is consistent, but sometimes gets under-rotation calls even in domestic competitions and needs even more speed.

Didn't Alysa land a 4Lz at one of her competitions earlier in the season?

 

[Dobre]

Didn't Alysa land a 4Lz at one her competitions earlier in the season?

No, she went for it at Regionals and fell. Reportedly landed one in warm-up. Here is the protocol sheet. It looks as though she popped it initially, but put it in during the 2nd half.

https://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2019/27735/SEGM017.html

 

[layman]

No, she went for it at Regionals and fell. Reportedly landed one in warm-up. Here is the protocol sheet. It looks as though she popped it initially, but put it in during the 2nd half.

https://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2019/27735/SEGM017.html

Thanks!

 

[natsulian]

Alysa reminds me of Alexandra Trusova. Very gutsy and determined. During regionals, Alysa attempted a 4Lz and popped it. Then she attempted another 4Lz in the second half of the program, but fell on it. She did land one in the warm up, but it was under-rotated and a little cheated.

 

[Tinami Amori]

Alysa reminds me of Alexandra Trusova. Very gutsy and determined.

Yes, but with different "styles", Trus is a tomboy, and Alysa maintains a more "balletic" style, both are good.

 

[vesperholly]

No, you answered the question.

So falling on a 2a3t2t is not - 4.45 , just negative 2.15.

I don't know if I agree, but I see the logic.

Welll, technically they didn't fall on all 3 jumps

 

[Coco]

Well, if I fall on a triple, I'm not falling on every rotation

 

[natsulian]

Biggest questions for the upcoming season:
- Will Starr continue to work on the 3A? She’s shown that she can score above 180 internationally with a program she’s comfortable with, so hopefully she keeps improving her jumps, artistry, and skating skills. Maybe it’s time for a coaching change?
- Will the new generation truly herald a new era for the US ladies? With Alysa, Ting, Hanna, Pooja (Who’s been injured), and upcoming talents hot on the trails of the residing seniors, how will they change the game? They’re already attempting the harder jumps, but will that be enough to truly revolutionize the ladies’ field?
- How will Gracie fare? She’s said that her main goal is to win a Worlds medal and we can never count out truly raw talent. If Kostner is anything to go by, when you have the talent and commitment, age truly is just a number.
- More Junior Grand Prix medals than Grand Prix medals? With Alysa and Hanna, the US can start medaling in the JGP consistently for the first time in what seems like forever.
- Will Ting find her consistency and move to Raf? With newfound confidence after the bronze at Junior Worlds, Ting will start off the season with a lot of momentum... but the question remains: can she find consistency?
- What’s happening with Karen and Polina? Both hinted at comebacks, let’s see how they fare.
- Will Bell and Tennell continue to lead the seniors of Will there be pleasant surprises along the way?
- Thoughts on possible dark horses and breakouts of the season?

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

I agree. I think the next group of girls coming up are the ones that will get the US back in the top 5 though it may take some time. Bradie just isn't going to get the PCS needed and Mariah is limited technically. Neither are well balanced skaters which is what is needed along with quads and 3axels. Someone like Ting has nice jumps already and her style and natural gracefulness will get high PCS especially if she ever gets consistent Alysa is obviously a question mark until she grows and gets more speed and shows that her jumps won't go away and Hanna right now is a just jumper but needs to work on other things along with pushing the envelop technically but they are all young and have time to make massive improvements. Bradie and Mariah especially i'm not sure what more they can do.

Agree it will depend on what happens with next crop internationally - As 4/3A crop pulls up to seniors. Will they bring those jumps with them or be worn out/injured by then? Will some lose the jumps as they enter puberty? If they come with these technical advantages the age of the 3/3 will be over. The base value for Zag, Med, Tennell, etc. will just be too low.

 

[nathanfan]

Kostner skated in a different era than what we will be seeing next season in senior ladies. I do not see how it would be possible for Gracie to win a worlds medal among the current field. I think her medaling at US Nationals would already be a big stretch.

 

[SidelineSkater]

Kostner skated in a different era than what we will be seeing next season in senior ladies. I do not see how it would be possible for Gracie to win a worlds medal among the current field. I think her medaling at US Nationals would already be a big stretch.

Yep - Kostner won worlds with a 5 triple program and no lutz, but did have a four year streak of being on the podium - when most skaters weren't doing 3-3 combos like they are today. She won her first world medal in 2005 - so quite a long competitive career.

Wishing Gracie the best in her comeback, though! And while Bradie and Mariah didn't get three spots, they had a respectable showing despite the naysayers. Onwards and upwards, right?

 

[Tinami Amori]

I do not see how it would be possible for Gracie to win a worlds medal among the current field. I think her medaling at US Nationals would already be a big stretch.

Hypothetically, she can, many can. If they devote all their efforts to it, with lots of discipline and sacrifices. Big part is "motivation to do it".. like a russian saying "Fear has huge and wide open eyes" (meaning that a major challenge looks scary and impossible, and it stops many people).

 

[IloveFS]

Biggest questions for the upcoming season:
- Will Starr continue to work on the 3A? She’s shown that she can score above 180 internationally with a program she’s comfortable with, so hopefully she keeps improving her jumps, artistry, and skating skills. Maybe it’s time for a coaching change?
- Will the new generation truly herald a new era for the US ladies? With Alysa, Ting, Hanna, Pooja (Who’s been injured), and upcoming talents hot on the trails of the residing seniors, how will they change the game? They’re already attempting the harder jumps, but will that be enough to truly revolutionize the ladies’ field?
- How will Gracie fare? She’s said that her main goal is to win a Worlds medal and we can never count out truly raw talent. If Kostner is anything to go by, when you have the talent and commitment, age truly is just a number.
- More Junior Grand Prix medals than Grand Prix medals? With Alysa and Hanna, the US can start medaling in the JGP consistently for the first time in what seems like forever.
- Will Ting find her consistency and move to Raf? With newfound confidence after the bronze at Junior Worlds, Ting will start off the season with a lot of momentum... but the question remains: can she find consistency?
- What’s happening with Karen and Polina? Both hinted at comebacks, let’s see how they fare.
- Will Bell and Tennell continue to lead the seniors of Will there be pleasant surprises along the way?
- Thoughts on possible dark horses and breakouts of the season?

Remember Lyaseck's success at the 2010 Olympics when many of the men with quads faltered. Perhaps, the 2022 Olympic results will be similar for the US (or other skaters from other countries) without quads or triple axels....

 

[VGThuy]

2010 was a lot different than what 2022 will be on that front.

 

[nathanfan]

We will be seeing ladies’ 3A and quads at the next Olympics. Scoring has also changed since 2010.

 

[Perky Shae Lynn]

I think this Worlds demonstrated that Mariah and Bradie have pretty much hit their ceilings in terms of results with their current tech. content, if either wants to make a push toward the top 5 without relying on multiple meltdowns in the field, they'll have to add more. And since PCS is so often contingent on TES, neither should expect that their second mark is going to hit the 1-5 ranking calibre while their TES stays at 6-10. JMO...

Unfortunately, I agree with this. I don't quiet know where we go from here.