U.S. Ladies [#28]: Achieving 2020 Vision

aftershocks

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Yay, hopefully it's gonna be about U.S. ladies and not about comparing Russian ladies' performances and chances...

Re-posting this GS interview with Mariah Bell from the previous thread. It's well worth a listen! That Gizmo cutie companion to Mariah & Romain, is certainly a feisty bunny rabbit. :rollin:

 

Frau Muller

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Will anybody BUT Alysa Liu win 2020 Nationals Sr Ladies? Does anybody stand a friggin chance?
 

jiejie

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Will anybody BUT Alysa Liu win 2020 Nationals Sr Ladies? Does anybody stand a friggin chance?
IMO, podium is most likely to be Liu, Tennell, Bell but not necessarily in that order. Liu is not superior to Tennell or Bell in the PCS components, only in the technical/jumping side and she must hit her elements--especially the 3A--to win. Or the others screw up. Other entrants (including Chen) will be dark horses but if any of the top three have an off day....
 

olympic

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I think that Liu, Tennell, and Bell have set themselves apart from the rest of the field. They are all very likely to be 1-2-3 at Nationals. The only potential challenger to the skating order is a healthy Ting Cui, but she has been sidelined this Fall. Does anyone know what her plans for the rest of the season are? Glenn, Chen, Andrews and maybe Izzo are the next group but they have a lot of issues to sort out before they can get close to the top 3. Glenn needs to find and maintain the right frame of mind (she does seem to be getting closer). She had a PB this season and while she started to meltdown at CoC, she did correct herself after the popped Lutz and V spin. IDK what to say about Chen. There has always been some sort of obstacle since the dawn of her career. The issues are chronic and I honestly believe her window has passed. Andrews has an 'it' factor but she really needs help on the tech side of her skating. She still has some time but it needs to start happening now.
 
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jiejie

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Ting certainly has the ability to get on the podium, but even when healthy, she tends to make errors in at least one program. She is definitely a question mark w/respect to injuries. I agree that Chen's window of opportunity has come and gone....and I don't see her pulling a Nathan and being able to combine higher education with top placements in skating.
 

Frau Muller

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I can’t imagine anyone but a healthy (injury free) Liu being seriously considered for the gold. I haven’t felt that certain about a Sr Ladies repeat since the Peggy Fleming days. Even Janet Lynn had serious competition in Julie Holmes...
 

AxelAnnie

Graceful men lift lovely girls in white!
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I can’t imagine anyone but a healthy (injury free) Liu being seriously considered for the gold. I haven’t felt that certain about a Sr Ladies repeat since the Peggy Fleming days. Even Janet Lynn had serious competition in Julie Holmes...
Totally agree! Alysa is a lock. Remember, she is a competitor with nerves of steel. She skated quite well in the competitions she was able to skate in. If I was going to put money on anybody it would be Alysa.
 

Frau Muller

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For now (pre-puberty), Liu is it. Hopefully puberty will be kind and she’ll sail into age 16, 17, etc., with her jumps & all else.
 

olympic

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Random thought- Would Karen ever consider training a 3A or even a quad? Her jumps are big and she seems to have bigger problems with a 3-3 then just executing a real big jump. IOW, structure a performance with a 3A or 4S and limit the combos to 3-2 and or 3-2-2
 

essence_of_soy

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Random thought- Would Karen ever consider training a 3A or even a quad? Her jumps are big and she seems to have bigger problems with a 3-3 then just executing a real big jump. IOW, structure a performance with a 3A or 4S and limit the combos to 3-2 and or 3-2-2
Karen has been sidelined with injuries a few times in her career. I'm guessing that skating is more of a nice side hustle to her university studies these days.
 
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kwanatic

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Might I suggest "U.S. Ladies: Achieving 2020 Vision" :)
YAAAAAY!! We went with my title! :D What an honor!:encore:

As for the nationals question, it's pretty clear who the front-runners are as of now: Bradie, Mariah, Alysa. I don't think there is an absolute clear winner at this time though...

I feel like a clean Bradie will have the advantage over Mariah in the SP, but Mariah's FS is a stunner this year and if she skates it cleanly at nationals her scores will likely beat Bradie's. Bradie beat Mariah by only 1.19 points last year. Both of them have improved this year...so it's a toss up for who would win between the two of them.

However, if Alysa manages to bring multiple triple axels and even a quad to nationals, I don't know that either of them will be able to take her down. She's a pretty damn gutsy competitor though so I'd say there's a good chance of her hitting a few of those difficult elements. Then again, she landed 3 triple axels last year and there was only 6.11 between 1st and 3rd, so you never know.

If Ting is healthy she has a definite shot but her nerves tend to sink her in at least one segment of the competition...

Karen, bless her, is perpetually sick/injured/experiencing some kind of issue. She could be a serious challenger or a complete non-factor...

Amber tends to keep it together during the SP but has trouble staying focused in the long. I don't see her winning even if she skates well (judges wouldn't trust her to go to worlds) but she could definitely land on the podium with strong skates...

I don't see Starr on the podium at this point but if she can skate well she could crack the top 5...

Hanna has the content but who knows what condition she will be in by that time...

It should be an interesting competition at least.
 

Chris_E

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I think 2020 Nationals will be very similar to last year. Alysa is a front runner technically but if Bradie or Mariah perform 2 perfect programs, I wouldn't be surprised if either pulled off a win. Their PCS at this point in time is ahead of Alysa by quite a bit if judged appropriately. Also agree, we don't know how Alysa will fair defending her title.
 

Coco

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I would love to see Karen use a solo triple Lutz in the short program and find some other triple triple combination, even if it's triple toe-triple toe.

Then in the free state, she can repeat the Lutz by putting it in combination with a double.
 

Frau Muller

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I think 2020 Nationals will be very similar to last year. Alysa is a front runner technically but if Bradie or Mariah perform 2 perfect programs, I wouldn't be surprised if either pulled off a win. Their PCS at this point in time is ahead of Alysa by quite a bit if judged appropriately. Also agree, we don't know how Alysa will fair defending her title.
If PCS were graded honestly - independent from technique - then yes.
 

concorde

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I always appreciate seeing/reading thoughtful local media coverage of skaters (Mia won the South Atlantics Junior ladies' event and has worked with Kimmie Meissner for many years):
Excited to see this on Mia!

Super sweet young lady and a beautiful skater. She was out early in the season due to injuries so very happy she is now back in fighting form.
 

personwhoishere

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If PCS were graded honestly - independent from technique - then yes.
Alysa's PCS last year when she won Nationals were 61.43 - mostly 7s and some 8s. I think that was more than appropriate and could even justifiably go up a bit with the improvements she's made this year.
 

natsulian

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Both Bell and Tennell have worked immensely hard to improve everything about their skating be it performance skills, jumps, and consistency. If both skate clean, I'm expecting either of them to overtake Liu.

Tennell, 76-77 / 148-153 / 224-230
Bell, 74-75 / 146-150 / 220-225

However, if Liu hits all her jumps and has improved tremendously in the PCS market, then I see her overtaking both ladies. Again, the ice is slippery and anything can happen.
 
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AngieNikodinovLove

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Random thought- Would Karen ever consider training a 3A or even a quad?
I, in no way, think skaters should go to these monsters until they can get through minimum 2 consecutive competitions with no under or downgrades.. otherwise...why??? If they can rotate the triple they aint gonna rotate the quad.

Similarly, i like it when skaters (Glenn) stop the tanos and rippons, etc until they can land them regularly consistently. (Hannah please take note).

I am surprised that Vincent posts GG in the harness for the monsters because she barely rotates the 2 axel.

If I am brutally honest... I feel it irresponsible.
 

Sylvia

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Starr Andrews and Elsa Cheng (competing Novice at Mids tomorrow; this will be her Team USA debut) are listed for the Junior international event of Golden Spin (Dec. 4-7, 2019 in Zagreb, Croatia) on USFS' International Assignments page as of today... both are looking to get the ISU junior minimum scores to be eligible to be considered for Junior Worlds.

Bradie Tennell and Hanna Harrell (hope she can go this time!) are listed for the ISU Challenger part of Golden Spin.
 

natsulian

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Starr will have another competition to practice and get more experience. The US truly wants to groom Starr into the skater that she can become, and I hope she can use every single minute of it to push herself.
 

Dobre

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I think Alysa may upgrade. She doesn't have much on the line at Nationals. A spot at Junior Worlds possibly, but having secured a spot at the JGPF, I don't know if even that. It would be a good competition to run whatever her final layout will be prior to Junior Worlds. Of course, maybe she is already there and is planning to use the layout in her current junior LP; but as she has run two different free jump layouts and two different shorts, it seems quite plausible that she may upgrade.
 

Marco

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The podium at Nationals will likely be Liu, Bell, Tennell and Cui (again). For Liu, the uncertainty for her defending the title is that she is relying on 3 incredibly difficult tricks - if she pops or URs any one of them, her BV will go down quite significantly.

We also don't know if the caller at Nationals is going to be as strict as the ones at recent GPs. If yes, Liu and Tennell could be in trouble.
 

sjs5572

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I think Alysa may upgrade. She doesn't have much on the line at Nationals. A spot at Junior Worlds possibly, but having secured a spot at the JGPF, I don't know if even that. It would be a good competition to run whatever her final layout will be prior to Junior Worlds. Of course, maybe she is already there and is planning to use the layout in her current junior LP; but as she has run two different free jump layouts and two different shorts, it seems quite plausible that she may upgrade.
I think defending her Nationals title is just about as important to Alysa as Junior Worlds.
 

kwanatic

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I think defending her Nationals title is just about as important to Alysa as Junior Worlds.
Agreed. However, I feel like Alysa is young and still in the "I'm having a blast! This is so fun!" stage of her skating which means she'll be more interested in going out and having a good time. I get the sense she won't make the mistake of being in defense mode which is how most skaters end up losing their title. Rather than skating to keep the title, she'll just be skating and that's great. So many skaters get caught up in the gravity of winning the title that they freeze up or overthink...Alysa knows she won but it doesn't seem like the pressure of being champion has affected her. If she's lucky it never will.

She is a steely competitor (thus far) so if she maintains that, I could definitely see her repeating as champ.
 

essence_of_soy

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She is a steely competitor (thus far) so if she maintains that, I could definitely see her repeating as champ.
Agreed. Case on point at her second JGP stop, and was behind after doubling the loop in the short. It wasn't a deductible error as such, but oh boy, Liu got mad and steamrolled her way back in the free skate.
 

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