2024 Four Continents/Junior Worlds/Worlds US Team Speculation

[Karen-W]

ZingKol are almost there! 2 hrs ago they landed in Seoul -

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[Frau Muller]

This was the toughest team to understand!

Naumov, Torgashev & Hiwatashi there!!!

ISU Four Continents Championships 2024 - Men

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[Karen-W]

And ZingKol have made it to Shanghai!

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[Wyliefan]

CPom are there.

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[Karen-W]

I've seen Greg Zuerlein post a pic from the arena in Shanghai on his IG so I presume that GreenP have also made it.

 

[her grace]

For Jr Worlds, my concern with Lin-Gracey, Zhang, and Lee is whether they’ll hit a fully-rotated 3-3 in the SP. Everhardt’s jumps look stronger, though the PCS could use some work.

 

[Karen-W]

There is no way I'd send Josephine to Jr Worlds over any of the other three women. Both of her international scores are far below what Lin-Gracey, Zhang and Everhardt put out there.

Lin-Gracey = 162.58, 179.16, 176.11, 177.50, 173.11 (Cranberry, JGP Istanbul, JGP Yerevan, CS Warsaw, Nats) = 173.69 average, 173.84 average w/o Nats
Zhang = 170.65, 175.18, 169.45 (JGP Budapest, JGP Yerevan, WYOG) = 171.76 average
Everhardt = 161.11, 168.69, 193.37 (Cranberry, JGP Gdansk, Nats) = 174.39 average, 164.90 average w/o Nats
J Lee = 156.71, 151.40, 204.13 (Cranberry, JGP Linz, Nats) = 170.75 average, 154.06 average w/o Nats

I think a lot of people are making way more of one hot Nats performance from Lee and forgetting that her international results are, on average, clearly lower than the other three. The USFS would be disadvantaging their chances of earning 2 JGP spots next year in sending Lee to Jr Worlds.

I think you can really flip a coin between Elyce & Sherry - their int'l averages are so close. I can see an argument to send both of them and leave Sarah off, but I really expect the USFS to spread the wealth and instead assign Sherry & Sarah to Jr Worlds.

 

[Karen-W]

If Broussard is healthy I’d like him to be sent back to Junior Worlds. What a tough year he’s had so far though. But he is still one of the US best up and coming talents.

Sadly, I don't think he has much of a chance for consideration. Martynov certainly has one of the spots locked up between making the JGPF and his solid performance at Nats.

I think the 2nd spot probably comes down to either Sanchez or Shinohara. Sanchez has shown a tendency of crumbling a bit under the pressure of the FS when he is in a medal position after the SP. Shinohara hasn't had a lot of international experience yet but he did okay at Jr Nats so we'll have to see how he does in the FS at Bavarian Open later today.

I'd say Beck Strommer for that 2nd Jr. Worlds spot, no?? He was pretty rock solid this fall on the Jr. Grand Prix and just missed qualifying for the Jr. Grand Prix Final. Nationals was actually his weakest pair of performances.

I'm thinking that the USFSA is looking at Shinohara because he has two 3Axels in his free, whereas Strommer doesn't have one at all.

Your thoughts...

Beck's Midwestern Sectional's was also pretty weak. He scored a 193.49 with a 127.39 in the long (and a 3-2 in the short). So, he's had 2 weaker competitions in a row. Honestly, he looks like he's lacking confidence and with lower tech, he needs to be clean.

Personally, I really like Beck's skating. But, I'm not sure I'd put him on the junior world's team.

I'd give the spots to Martynov and Shinohara.

Jacob is great in the short, but the free has been a consistent problem. While he did a little better in the free just now in the team event, it still wasn't great.

The Jr Men aren't making this easy on the USFS at all. I think skaters like Broussard, Kovar, Xie and Fegan have taken themselves out of contention.

Martynov = 207.98, 220.09, 197.36, 183.47, 227.05 (JGP Osaka, JGP Yerevan, CS Warsaw, JGPF, Nats) = 207.19 average, 202.23 average w/o Nats
Strommer = 186.11, 210.92, 200.22, 193.28 (Cranberry, JGP Linz, JGP Gdansk, Nats) = 197.63 average, 199.08 average w/o Nats
Sanchez = 201.49, 198.67, 200.28 (JGP Bangkok, JGP Budapest, WYOG) = 200.15 average
Shinohara = 161.27, 198.08, 193.87 (Cranberry, Nats, Bavarian) = 184.41 average, 177.57 average w/o Nats
Kovar = 166.30, 185.95, 210.73 (JGP Istanbul, Kings Cup, Nats) = 187.66 average, 176.13 average w/o Nats
Xie = 181.06, 204.13, 184.51 (JGP Bangkok, JGP Osaka, Nats) = 189.90 average, 192.60 average w/o Nats
Fegan = 177.94, 185.78, 194.95 (Cranberry, JGP Yerevan, Nats) = 186.22 average, 181.86 average w/o Nats
Broussard = 174.31, 216.10, 181.15 (Cranberry, CS Nebelhorn, COC) = 190.52 average

Martynov is a no-brainer and it's a wash between Strommer & Sanchez, IMO. Shinohara has no bigger part of the conversation right now than Kovar, Xie, Fegan and Broussard. I'd probably go with Jacob simply because he has a 3a despite his FS being a real issue with consistency.

 

[Karen-W]

In Jr Pairs news - Zheng/Deng earned the SP TES min for Jr Worlds today at Bavarian Open. Park/Griffin did not. Smith/McPike also did not earn Jr Worlds TES mins at the WYOG. So, at this point the 3rd Jr Worlds spot will be Zheng/Deng's if they can earn the FS TES min tomorrow.

 

[A.H.Black]

There is no way I'd send Josephine to Jr Worlds over any of the other three women. Both of her international scores are far below what Lin-Gracey, Zhang and Everhardt put out there.

Lin-Gracey = 162.58, 179.16, 176.11, 177.50, 173.11 (Cranberry, JGP Istanbul, JGP Yerevan, CS Warsaw, Nats) = 173.69 average, 173.84 average w/o Nats
Zhang = 170.65, 175.18, 169.45 (JGP Budapest, JGP Yerevan, WYOG) = 171.76 average
Everhardt = 161.11, 168.69, 193.37 (Cranberry, JGP Gdansk, Nats) = 174.39 average, 164.90 average w/o Nats
J Lee = 156.71, 151.40, 204.13 (Cranberry, JGP Linz, Nats) = 170.75 average, 154.06 average w/o Nats

I think a lot of people are making way more of one hot Nats performance from Lee and forgetting that her international results are, on average, clearly lower than the other three. The USFS would be disadvantaging their chances of earning 2 JGP spots next year in sending Lee to Jr Worlds.

I think you can really flip a coin between Elyce & Sherry - their int'l averages are so close. I can see an argument to send both of them and leave Sarah off, but I really expect the USFS to spread the wealth and instead assign Sherry & Sarah to Jr Worlds.

Josephine also did very well (at least in free) at Nationals in 2023. I wonder if she is a bad traveler, or something. I would put her on the team.

 

[haribobo]

Wasn't Josephine recovering from injury during her intl season? Also she was 5th at Nationals last year. She clearly has promise and rightly or wrongly I am 100% sure she will be assigned to Jr Worlds. This isn't Canada. We don't just give our national medalists nothing...

 

[RoseRed]

Wasn't Josephine recovering from injury during her intl season? Also she was 5th at Nationals last year. She clearly has promise and rightly or wrongly I am 100% sure she will be assigned to Jr Worlds. This isn't Canada. We don't just give our national medalists nothing...

Oh come on, complain about Skate Canada's assignments all you want, but that's a silly comment. There are two Canadian senior medalists without post-Nationals assignments. One is Fabbri/Ayer, who got the bronze with our #2 & 3 dance teams out, so realistically are CAN #5. The other is Hetty Shi, who got bronze in Sr women. She's not age-eligible for seniors (so no possibility of 4CCs). She didn't get JW, yes, but the two who got it instead are Kaiya Ruiter (Sr gold) and Lulu Lin (Jr gold, higher Nats score than Hetty by a few points). She wasn't passed over for anyone who finished behind her.

It's just not the same situation as potentially passing over Josephine for Sarah or Elyce. Personally, I see that Josephine has notably weaker results for the rest of the season, but I do feel that 2nd place in seniors should get you something, especially when there are two spots (not just one). It is complicated by Sherry Zhang competing at YOG and not at Nationals, though, so you miss the direct comparison. Not sure what team I would go with in the end - I think there are arguments for all of them.

 

[haribobo]

See also Fiona Bombardier in 2023, or Madeline Schizas in 2020...or all the skaters who win or medal at Challenge with promise who often get nothing unless they manage to medal at Nationals...which just feels really short-sighted to me.

 

[Jonas]

After watching the ladies event at Four Continents, I reaffirm my hope for and belief in a Jr. Worlds team of Josephine Lee and Sarah Everhardt. They were rock solid at Nationals and yes, I agree that their placements there should count for a lot.

Had Sherry Zhang, who I think is lovely, BTW, medaled at Youth Olympic Games, I would've been ok w/bumping one of the other two (likely Everhardt) off the Jr. Worlds Team. I think she'll be named an alternate along with Logan Higase-Chen.

Elyce Lin-Gracey now has ISU Championship points and I'm betting she'll actually be named an alternate to Worlds along with Ava Marie Ziegler and Everhardt.

Boy, I haven't been this excited about the depth of the US ladies since 2016!

Your thoughts...

 

[Stephanie]

Everhardt can’t be an alternate for worlds because she doesn’t have the minimums.

 

[Aceon6]

Reminder age+minimums=eligibility.

 

[Jonas]

Got it...I bet now that the USFSA names Starr Andrews as one of the World alternates.

 

[Karen-W]

Got it...I bet now that the USFSA names Starr Andrews as one of the World alternates.

Maybe? Her scores haven't been all that great this season, even at Nats. I think Elyce has been mostly consistent but her Nats result was a stinker. The USFS might just decide to stick with the Nats results for the 2nd & 3rd alts.

1st Alt - Ava Marie Ziegler
2nd Alt - Clare Seo
3rd Alt - Starr Andrews

 

[Karen-W]

Bavarian Open stream doesn't show the FS TES/PCS breakdown on their on-screen scores chyron buy, Zheng/Deng scored around 80 in the FS, so I'm pretty sure they did manage the FS TES min of 34.

 

[Jonas]

Maybe? Her scores haven't been all that great this season, even at Nats. I think Elyce has been mostly consistent but her Nats result was a stinker. The USFS might just decide to stick with the Nats results for the 2nd & 3rd alts.

1st Alt - Ava Marie Ziegler
2nd Alt - Clare Seo
3rd Alt - Starr Andrews

This'd probably make the most sense at this point, so you'll probably be right in calling this one! I almost forgot about Clare Seo in all of this discussion.

 

[DORISPULASKI]

Asking for a friend. Ava Marie is 17. Is there a junior comp she could do to qualify for junior worlds? She has competed senior all year, but still meets the age requirement.

 

[Andrea82]

Bavarian Open stream doesn't show the FS TES/PCS breakdown on their on-screen scores chyron buy, Zheng/Deng scored around 80 in the FS, so I'm pretty sure they did manage the FS TES min of 34.

36.11

 

[Karen-W]

Asking for a friend. Ava Marie is 17. Is there a junior comp she could do to qualify for junior worlds? She has competed senior all year, but still meets the age requirement.

No. This is the last weekend to earn the TES mins.

 

[Jammers]

Asking for a friend. Ava Marie is 17. Is there a junior comp she could do to qualify for junior worlds? She has competed senior all year, but still meets the age requirement.

After winning NHK and almost medaling at a stacked ladies 4CC field i think she doesn't want to drop back down to Juniors and i don't blame her. I would almost be thinking of replacing Isabeau with Ava right now though. She showed some toughness with pressure skating in a event like this against really good skaters and Isabeau is a mess right now and one thing Ava can do is jump with the proper technique and we know internationally as it was shown at NHK and 4CC the judges will award her big scores if she skates well even if she was a little tight in the LP here.

 

[Stephanie]

Bavarian Open stream doesn't show the FS TES/PCS breakdown on their on-screen scores chyron buy, Zheng/Deng scored around 80 in the FS, so I'm pretty sure they did manage the FS TES min of 34.

They did: 36.11, so they’ll be the third team for junior worlds. Congrats to them!

 

[PRlady]

After winning NHK and almost medaling at a stacked ladies 4CC field i think she doesn't want to drop back down to Juniors and i don't blame her. I would almost be thinking of replacing Isabeau with Ava right now though. She showed some toughness with pressure skating in a event like this against really good skaters and Isabeau is a mess right now and one thing Ava can do is jump with the proper technique and we know internationally as it was shown at NHK and 4CC the judges will award her big scores if she skates well even if she was a little tight in the LP here.

Isabeau had one really bad program this season at Nats. Unless her jump technique is well and truly deserting her, I think what we are seeing is the stress of a perfectionist with high expectations of herself. Her track record is much fuller than Ava’s, whom I love and who should be proud of her season and planning to make the Worlds team next year, especially if she does well on the GP.

 

[skatingguy]

Asking for a friend. Ava Marie is 17. Is there a junior comp she could do to qualify for junior worlds? She has competed senior all year, but still meets the age requirement.

Going to Junior Worlds won't do anything for Ava. She's got a good score for the season best list, and she earned more World Standing points for 4th at Four Continents than she could for winning Junior Worlds. The only thing that could help her more at this point would be to go to the World Championships.

 

[skatingguy]

Isabeau had one really bad program this season at Nats. Unless her jump technique is well and truly deserting her, I think what we are seeing is the stress of a perfectionist with high expectations of herself. Her yea k record is much fuller than Ava’s, whom I love and who should be proud of her season and planning to make the Worlds team next year, especially if she does well on the GP.

Two = short program at the Grand Prix Final, and the free skate at US Nationals - it's the trend at the moment, but she can turn it around with a solid performance at Worlds.

 

[her grace]

Going to Junior Worlds won't do anything for Ava. She's got a good score for the season best list, and she earned more World Standing points for 4th at Four Continents than she could for winning Junior Worlds. The only thing that could help her more at this point would be to go to the World Championships.

It could potentially help the U.S. with JGP spots and world spots for next year. But it’s neither here nor there since she doesn’t have the Jr. minimums.

 

[Jammers]

It could potentially help the U.S. with JGP spots and world spots for next year. But it’s neither here nor there since she doesn’t have the Jr. minimums.

It's bit ridiculous that someone who has scored over 200 total points in each of her last international events which included a GP and a ISU championship doesn't quality for Jr Worlds. Seems backwards to me to score that high at the highest level of figure skating competition yet not have the Jr minimums.