Karen-W
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Starting a centralized thread for this since the main discussion has been in the NQS thread, but there's also been discussion in the US Women's thread this past week and there were some interesting tidbits dropped in today's TSL show.
From the NQS thread:
And from the US Women thread:
And the tidbits from today's TSL - per Dave Lease's conversations with Ari Zakarian, Ilia plans on skipping Art on Ice & the ISU Awards in favor of 4CCs this season. Their guest today, journalist Maya Bagriantseva who was at both GPdF and GP Espoo, stated that Chock/Bates told her (presumably at Espoo) that they will be at 4CCs.
From the NQS thread:
USFS selection procedures for 2024 Worlds, 2024 Four Continents, and 2024 Junior Worlds have been published on USFS site.
For "Calculation of Overall Athlete Performance Data," weighting factors for different events now are specified -- all of which looks very interesting.
I have not gone through everything closely yet (especially the parts about how previous season is taken into account), but ...
Of relevance to this thread, Four Continents selection procedures include "Current Sectional Final," with a high weighting factor.
(And Four Continents selection does not include the current U.S. Nats.)
1. Current Sectional Final (factor 4.0)a. If not at Sectional Final due to bye, most recent international score will be used at the same factor.
2. Most recent ISU Grand Prix Final (factor 3.0)3. Grand Prix Score: Highest & Average (factor 1.25)4. Challenger Score: Highest & Average (factor 1.0)5. Senior B Score: Highest & Average (factor 0.75)6. Previous Season’s Total Score (see appendix) (factor 15)
World Team Selection Procedures:
World Junior Selection Procedures:
Still wondering if someone can explain the weighting factor and how it works. I'm trying to understand why it is that LAST season's total score is given a factor of 15, which is more than the CURRENT season's maximum combined factor (10) by 50%. It seems bizarre that the USFS would weigh last season's score so much more than this season. It makes me wonder if it is a typo and last season's factor should be 1.5 not 15.
ETA - I just looked at the Appendix and it makes more sense now, and the factor of 15 also makes sense too. They're giving points for placements for certain events.
Based on the table above -
Men -
Malinin - (10+4)Ă—15 = 210
Brown - (5+2)Ă—15 = 105
Torgashev - 2Ă—15 = 30
Women -
Levito - (5+4)Ă—15 = 135
Glenn - 2Ă—15 = 30
Pairs -
Chan/Howe - (5+6+2)Ă—15 = 195
Plazas/Fernandez - 3Ă—15 = 45
Kam/O'Shea - 2Ă—15 = 30
Dance -
Chock/Bates - (12+6+4)Ă—15 = 330
Green/Parsons - (5+3+2)Ă—15 = 150
Carreira/Ponomarenko - (3+2)Ă—15 = 75
I'll have to set up an Excel spreadsheet to calculate this season's scores and factoring, but that's a project for when I'm not so sleepy, lol.
The formula I have for the CS Average is ((X+Y)/2)*1.0, so right now both ZingKol and PlaFern are going to gain points after Golden Spin. Same for the singles skaters assigned there.
Okay, so I've started working on the calculations and I started with Ice Dance - red indicates one competition left.
Skater Sectional
*4GPF
*3GP Highest
*1.25GP Average
*1.25CS Highest
*1CS Average
*1Sr B Highest
*.75Sr B Average
*.75Prev Season
*15Total Pate/Bye 738.32 0 230.725 228.775 191.2 191.2 133.4625 133.4625 0 1847.15Brown/Brown 750.48 0 234.525 228.01875 177.66 177.66 135.495 135.495 0 1839.33Green/Parsons 757.32 0 236.6625 234 168.56 168.56 0 0 150 1715.10Chock/Bates 837.84 0 266.2 264.0125 0 0 0 0 330 1698.05McNamara/Spiridonov 671.36 0 209.8 207.55625 167.77 167.77 126.8625 126.8625 0 1677.98Carreira/Ponomarenko 755.04 0 235.95 234.6625 191.14 184.525 0 0 75 1676.32Zingas/Kolesnik 735.12 0 231.2 230.4625 187.28 93.64 0 0 0 1477.70Bratti/Somerville 733.72 0 229.2875 226.7625 177.66 177.66 0 0 0 1545.09Wolfkostin/Tsarevski 742.16 0 0 0 172.88 168.11 0 0 0 1083.15Ling/Wein 665.52 0 0 0 0 0 115.3875 115.3875 0 896.30Flores/Desyatov 713.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 713.44Koncius/Shchepetov 623.92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 623.92Kowar/Schwappach 530.36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 530.36Murphy/Levitt 482.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 482.68Hawayek/Baker 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
Next up is Pairs - red indicates one competition left.
Skater Sectional
*4GPF
*3GP Highest
*1.25GP Average
*1.25CS Highest
*1CS Average
*1Sr B Highest
*.75Sr B Average
*.75Prev Season
*15Total Plazas/Fernandez 672.8 0 210.25 203.3 169.37 84.685 121.1325 121.1325 45 1627.67Martins/Bedard 662.92 0 193.325 193.325 152.64 152.64 101.3775 101.3775 0 1557.61Liu/Nagy 690.4 0 222.075 218.9125 165.2 165.2 0 0 0 1461.79Kam/O'Shea 608.64 0 190.2 190.2 182.07 182.07 0 0 30 1383.18Mokhova/Mokhov 539.24 0 168.5125 168.5125 127.05 127.05 109.3125 109.3125 0 1348.99Ouellette/Newby-Estrella 573.28 0 0 0 0 0 102.975 100.75125 0 777.01Hanns/Neudecker 550.12 0 0 0 0 0 103.1475 103.1475 0 756.42Digerness/Sadusky 611.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 611.80Fitzpatrick/Bearinger 587.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 587.80Wessenberg/Caputo 578.72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 578.72Chan/Howe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 195 195.00
Okay - here are the Women - red indicates one competition remaining.
Skater Sectional
*4GPF
*3GP Highest
*1.25GP Average
*1.25CS Highest
*1CS Average
*1Sr B Highest
*.75Sr B Average
*.75Prev Season
*15Total Ziegler 802 0 250.625 250.625 173.6 165.495 137.8425 137.8425 0 1918.03Levito 812.88 0 260.1875 257.10625 198.79 198.79 0 0 135 1862.75Seo 681.64 0 204.7125 204.7125 171.94 171.94 111.3525 111.3525 0 1657.65Shin 627.36 0 221.425 208.7375 169.04 169.04 128.5875 128.5875 0 1652.78Thorngren 794.92 0 248.4125 242.65625 0 0 149.37 149.37 0 1584.73Lin-Gracey 710 0 0 0 177.5 177.5 121.935 121.935 0 1308.87Andrews 617.68 0 218.525 205.775 0 0 125.2125 125.2125 0 1292.41Glenn 741.56 0 237.0375 234.3875 0 0 0 0 30 1242.99Hilmer 653.24 0 0 0 160.13 160.13 121.05 121.05 0 1215.60Everhardt 648.2 0 0 0 0 0 120.8325 120.8325 0 889.87Warne-Jacobsen 683.72 0 0 0 0 0 96.6525 96.6525 0 877.03Herrera 583.64 0 0 0 0 0 117.645 117.645 0 818.93Pierce 575.4 0 0 0 0 0 93.9525 93.9525 0 763.31Shen 740.84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 740.84Evans 638.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 638.80M Lee 637.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 637.80L Wang 636.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 636.60
And, the Men - red indicates one competition remaining
Skater Sectional
*4GPF
*3GP Highest
*1.25GP Average
*1.25CS Highest
*1CS Average
*1Sr B Highest
*.75Sr B Average
*.75Prev Season
*15Total Malinin 1218.72 0 388.0875 384.46875 281.68 281.68 0 0 210 2764.64Ma 765.04 0 260.1875 247.7625 191.08 191.08 166.8675 166.8675 0 1988.89Kapeikis 787.76 0 275.1875 260.68125 181.03 181.03 145.0425 145.0425 0 1975.77Torgashev 878.68 0 274.5875 274.5875 233.26 233.26 0 0 30 1924.38Pulkinen 917.28 0 288.55 287.6 210.46 210.46 0 0 0 1914.35Broussard 724.6 0 226.4375 226.4375 216.1 216.1 130.7325 130.7325 0 1871.14Naumov 842.12 0 263.1625 263.1625 201.71 201.71 0 0 0 1771.87Hiwatashi 996.44 0 0 0 223.79 111.895 0 0 0 1332.13Brown 681.64 0 0 0 236.75 236.75 0 0 105 1260.14Endo 907.52 0 0 0 0 0 173.5575 173.5575 0 1254.64Paniot 873.8 0 0 0 0 0 166.935 166.935 0 1207.67Martynov 789.44 0 0 0 197.36 197.36 0 0 0 1184.16Kovar 832.36 0 0 0 0 0 139.4625 139.4625 0 1111.29Mindra 791.04 0 0 0 0 0 152.235 146.27625 0 1089.55Annis 801.24 0 0 0 0 0 140.2125 140.2125 0 1081.67Klein 792.96 0 0 0 0 0 133.35 133.35 0 1059.66Murzin 773.8 0 0 0 0 0 141.3 141.3 0 1056.40Zharkov 748.04 0 0 0 0 0 140.2575 140.2575 0 1028.56Xie 795.36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 795.36Samohin 780.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 780.56
It appears to be benefiting lower ranked skaters and teams that only had 1 GP - athletes already in the top 24 SB/WR, and athletes with 2 GP's have less need to be sent to a non-challenger Sr. B, and USFS is less likely to spend the $$ to send them there. The prior season points aren't offsetting that nearly enough (especially with current season events basically counting 2x with average & highest). The top 5 from US Nationals are put into the selection pool as well, so it's not like anyone is being left out, but seeing the numbers makes me think USFS is not going to rely too much on the ranking - otherwise Seo & Shin could be given higher consideration than skaters that beat them on the GP.
It seems like a reasonable way to put a pool of athletes together, but not a good solution for final selection (IMO).
Yes, the selection pool includes the following:
1) Top 5 from the "Calculation of Overall Athlete Performance Data" (for 4CCs the athlete/team must have submitted an Intent to Compete form prior to the Int'l Committee's meeting on Dec 11-12)
2) Top 5 from US Nationals (2023 for 4CCs, 2024 for Worlds)
3) Top 10 from 2023 Worlds
4) All 2022 Olympic Team Members
5) Any athlete/team in the Top 24 of the CURRENT season's World Rankings
6) Any other athlete/team if unanimously approved by the Int'l Committee
So, the Selection Pool for each discipline should be:
Men - 7 - Malinin, Ma, Kapeikis, Torgashev, Pulkinen, Brown, Naumov
Women - 7 or 8 - Levito, Ziegler, Glenn, Andrews, Seo, Thorngren, Lin-Gracey, Shin (currently SWR #21)
Pairs - 6 - Liu/Nagy, Kam/O'Shea, Plazas/Fernandez, Martins/Bedard, Mokhova/Mokhov, Chan/Howe
Ice Dance - 9 - Chock/Bates, Pate/Bye, Brown/Brown, Green/Parsons, McNamara/Spiridonov, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Zingas/Kolesnik, Bratti/Somerville, Hawayek/Baker
So if I have everything straight in my head re Four Continents consideration, "Calculation of Overall Athlete Performance Data" is what will enable Kapeikis, Seo, Martins/Bedard, Mokhova/Mokhov, and McNamara/Spiridonov to be included in the pool for consideration. (All fine by me.)
They don't fit other criteria, and per the numbers seen in Karen's tables for Four Continents, they realistically will not be displaced from the top five positions in Calculation of Overall Data, regardless of Golden Spin results or GPF results.
Not wishing either of these scenarios on anyone, but I will be curious to see who in top five of "Calculation of Overall Athlete Performance Data" for Worlds consideration did not meet any other criteria -- with 2024 Nats score getting the highest weighting factor (x 4) instead of score from sectionals or most recent international.
Seo, the Mokhovs and McNamara/Spiridonov seem to be the likely candidates. The Mokhovs and McNamara/Spiridonov have pretty low scores in that Sectional/Most recent int'l category, so their Nationals score can only go up one would hope. McNamara/Spiridonov aren't getting within spitting distance of Top 5 at Nats. The Mokhovs might, if they're clean, finish Top 5, but I'd be surprised, especially with Chan/Howe, McBeath/Parkman and Efimova/Mitrofanov in the mix. Same goes for Seo, though we know she is capable of scoring well, but there are those international juniors who are skating senior at Nats who can easily outscore her and the likes of Levito, Glenn and Thorngren whose scores this season are consistently much higher than Clare's.
For Worlds consideration, I am definitely worried about McNamara/Spiridonov falling out of the top five of Calculation of Overall Data. In your table for Four Continents, they are in fifth position and not even two points ahead of Carreira/Ponomarenko.
Just roughly eyeballing your Four Continents table for Women, I am concerned whether Seo's small-ish "cushion" will be sufficient to keep her in top five of Calculation of Overall Data for Worlds consideration. I think it will depend on scores from Golden Spin and from Nats.
Agree that Mokhova/Mokhov will not fall out of top five of Calculation of Overall Data for Worlds consideration, and it could turn out to be the (only) reason that they do receive Worlds consideration.
And from the US Women thread:
So how do you think usfs would pick the 4cc team? This is unprecedented or is it?
Well, it all depends on which skaters WANT to go to 4CCs. I agree with most who expect Isabeau to pass - she's going to Beijing next week and certainly doesn't need the WS points for Worlds. Any of the rest would benefit from going to 4CCs. Unless Starr has an exceptional competition at Golden Spin, the three with the best scores internationally this season are Amber, Lindsay and Ava Marie - and it's not really close between them and the next tier, so those are the three I would select for the team.
And here's the one for 4CCs (that mentions selection dates of 12/11 and 12/12 that Karen-W referred to above)
I wonder if they will list several alternates and then possibly shake up the team after nationals.
Doubtful. The 4CCs team will most likely travel directly from Columbus to Shanghai and will need to have their airline tickets and visas before Nats.
I would be shocked if the USFSA DOESN'T outright name Amber, Lindsay, and Ava-Marie to Four Continents. I'd say name an alternate (Elyse Lin-Gracey??) in the likely event one of those three is named to the World team and opts not to travel.
I will say though that if I were Lindsay and Ava, I would compete at Four Continents even if I was named to the World Team. It's halfway through this Olympic cycle and these ladies have to think longer term. It'll give them experience at an ISU Championship. The scheduling is tough, but I can't imagine that they're not aware of it and not have prepped accordingly.
Your thoughts...
Elyce has a good chance for alternate, I'd say, after the consistency she's been showing.
I would say Elyce Lin-Gracry would have an out right spot with her body of work.
A JGP silver medal compared to GP gold, silver and bronze medals? Okay, then...
How so?
And the tidbits from today's TSL - per Dave Lease's conversations with Ari Zakarian, Ilia plans on skipping Art on Ice & the ISU Awards in favor of 4CCs this season. Their guest today, journalist Maya Bagriantseva who was at both GPdF and GP Espoo, stated that Chock/Bates told her (presumably at Espoo) that they will be at 4CCs.
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