Create Your Own Selection Criteria for 2025-2026

[VGThuy]

@Karen-W and @Coco both of your posts today about 2014 got me looking it all up, and I think the entire bru-ha-ha would have been avoided had Polina just been judged much closer to how she'd been judged by the international panel and had Ashley been given the PCS she usually received in the SP and LP with errors internationally. If that happened - Ashley/Mirai would have been fighting for silver/bronze and Polina would have been in 4th, close but not close enough. Of course, maybe some people would have accused the judges of holding a junior skater back for their favorites to make the top 3, but seriously. Polina's TES were fine in the LP and close to her JGPF GOEs, but her PCS went up by 10 points in the LP and like 4-5 points in the SP. Of course, Polina did end up scoring similarly to her Nationals LP score at Worlds, but we didn't know that at the time, .

 

[Karen-W]

For the women, I think we need immediate revision of the criteria to encourage world-leading skills, which take time to develop.

E.g.: Successful execution of at least two quads or triple axels (total) at Nationals or an ISU event within the previous six months, with full rotation and average GOE not less than -2 should be required for Groups 1 and 2 (in addition to top 3 at Nationals for Group 1, and top 5 for Group 2).

It might also be worth considering minimum base value requirements for Group 3, perhaps 32 in the short program (achieved twice in the previous six months, which may include Nationals) and 62 (or at minimum 60) in at least two free skates.

Couldn't the same be said for Pairs? A la SBS triples and L4 twists?

 

[missing]

I love this thread in no small part because I don't understand 97% of it, which makes it very relaxing reading.

There are a few things I do understand whether they're covered in this thread or not.

The first is comparing senior scores to junior scores, while not the same as apples and oranges, is the same as apples and crabapples. Junior scores are artificially lower than senior scores and cannot be regarded as comparable, any more than women's scores (also artificially lower) can be compared to men's scores.

The second thing is even in the best of times (and the past two years have hardly been that) there aren't enough competitions to be able to rank skaters based on them. It's the exact same problem the ISU has when it makes up its skater rankings, which often have the best skaters ranked far lower than world champion skaters because the lower ranked skaters compete in autumn events and the champion skaters don't, and skaters up from juniors lose a year of ranking points. As of December 15, Kamila Valieva is the ISU 10th ranked woman, with 4 other Russian women ranked above her. The sample size is simply too small and too static.

I can't give a reasoned alternative, but I can suggest blowing up the entire system and starting from a different vantagepoint. I would give weighted points to how each skater has done opposite the other skaters (for example, on the ISU chart Jason Brown is #2 and Nathan Chen is #3 but in head to heads Nathan would have the competitive edge over Jason). Since there won't be nearly enough competitions to use only that, I'd then go with how each skater has competed against the top ten in their field, to avoid the apple/crabapple issue. Then I'd look at competition results, adding in some magic formula, gold, silver, bronze on down. And finally, I'd look at point numbers, but only if there's a fair formula, and possibly just as a tie breaker.

I don't see how the current approach, even tinkered with and polished by the people posting here who unlike me actually understand it, can really work. I think starting from scratch and playing with different concepts might solve some of the problems now faced.

 

[Baby Yoda On Skates]

For the women, I think we need immediate revision of the criteria to encourage world-leading skills, which take time to develop.

E.g.: Successful execution of at least two quads or triple axels (total) at Nationals or an ISU event within the previous six months, with full rotation and average GOE not less than -2 should be required for Groups 1 and 2 (in addition to top 3 at Nationals for Group 1, and top 5 for Group 2).

It might also be worth considering minimum base value requirements for Group 3, perhaps 32 in the short program (achieved twice in the previous six months, which may include Nationals) and 62 (or at minimum 60) in at least two free skates.

I think the weight should be based on ISU events similar to ratified first jumps. As we saw this weekend Nationals calling is more about rah rah then judging skater technique.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I get to decide!

 

[LeafOnTheWind]

I keep seeing a returning theme of juniors moving up to senior level. If you get rid of the existing groups 3 and 4 would you want to put in a new group 3 that specifically addresses what to do with the rising stars? What should that look like? How do you evaluate potential and the possible good experience they could get against what they actually do now?

 

[becca]

@Karen-W and @Coco both of your posts today about 2014 got me looking it all up, and I think the entire bru-ha-ha would have been avoided had Polina just been judged much closer to how she'd been judged by the international panel and had Ashley been given the PCS she usually received in the SP and LP with errors internationally. If that happened - Ashley/Mirai would have been fighting for silver/bronze and Polina would have been in 4th, close but not close enough. Of course, maybe some people would have accused the judges of holding a junior skater back for their favorites to make the top 3, but seriously. Polina's TES were fine in the LP and close to her JGPF GOEs, but her PCS went up by 10 points in the LP and like 4-5 points in the SP. Of course, Polina did end up scoring similarly to her Nationals LP score at Worlds, but we didn't know that at the time, .

The fact that Polinas PCs at nationals where around what she got when she went to Senior ISUs is why her scores at nationals were fair. The national judges were right.

Everyone said Polinas PCs with good skates are going to go up and we were proven right.

What you see talking about is penalizing juniors. They are scored lower in PCs their PCs always got up with good skates when they skate well at major senior international events. This always happens so you have to factor into account.

Skaters PCs and go up with the exposure and Reputation. To sit there and doom a new senior with junior level PCs is not right furthemore PCs are suppose to be not reputational but based on the night.

 

[Coco]

Perhaps all skaters can have a "batting average" based on their GOE. This can be looked at by itself and also viewed in conjunction with their base value. It would give a good picture of what can be expected from them. It would also be a way to compare juniors and seniors that negates the discrepancies between junior and senior programs.

Of course, it's good to remember that statistics have limitations.

 

[barbk]

I didn’t have a problem with Ashley she said as GPF medalist and two top five spots at worlds

I just have a problem with rewarding body of work to skaters who have repeatedly demonstrated they are not competitive for a world or Olympic medal.

Over young talent

Age discrimination isn't pretty.

 

[mackiecat]

But I think the only way USA wins good is if the place top 2 in men’s in both sections. I don’t think that happens if they use Jason.
He is reliant on a lot of mistakes from other men.

He can easily win the short if Yuzuru doesn’t do the team event.

 

[tony]

He can easily win the short if Yuzuru doesn’t do the team event.

Please. Uno and Kagiyama are both totally capable as well (both have scored over 100 this year), Zhou has a higher SP seasons best, Jin, Grassl, and Kvitelashvili are all higher on the list, too, and Messing and Kolyada are right behind him.

By that sound logic, any of those 7 countries could 'easily' win the short. Or finish 7th.

I'm repeating myself here, but Brown is not needed in the team event as any kind of advantage.

 

[jlai]

After some heated but informative discussions about the Canadian and American selection criteria, I want to ask if you were given the task to draft your own for the next Olympics, how would you do it?

Using the U.S. current selection criteria below:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds OR consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds

* Note: 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES must be from:

2021 Stockholm Worlds (done)
2021 GPs
2021 GPF
2021 Challengers
2021 JGP
2021 JGPF
2021 Other identified ISU events (not clear)

Let's pretend every skater competing this season retires. Let's have no emotional attachment to anyone. How would you re-write the above?

For me, for the U.S. specifically...

Looking at the chart above, I started to wonder if we really need Group 3 and Group 4.

I would keep Group 1 and Group 2 but also add OR Consistently Scored Equal to Top 3 Senior Level's Season's Best Scores for Group 1. I would add OR Consistently Scored Equal Equal to Top 5 of the Senior Level's Season Top 5 Scores and/or Score Once Equal to Top 3 Senior Level's Season's Best Scores for Group 2 to give the skater's a bit more wriggle room.

For those competing in the Junior GP, I would add some language that Junior Scores will be used with consideration of the different technical requirements and score ceilings for Juniors. For Mens, for example, they are missing 3-5 points by missing the choreo sequence in the LP and no quads are allowed in the SP. I would also give some acknowledgement that PCS and GOE CAN be stingier for juniors (though I'm not sure how true that is if you're a top junior trying to make a senior team in the same season as opposed to a Zagitova-like situation where she came off of Juniors and started her Olympic season as a senior building up her rep to get higher PCS and GOE).

Some people may think it's harsh to get rid of Group 3 and Group 4, but I'm starting to become convinced that slots should only be reserved for those who have shown they can challenge for medals or at least a top 5 placement which will let you play spoiler for a medal. I would then let Nationals dictate the rest considering scoring potential, who seems to be peaking right at the right moment, etc.

One problem with getting rid of Group 3 and Group 4 is that it gives much more discretion for the U.S. selection committee to pick the team if most of the contenders for the team fail to meet Group 1 or Group 2, but hey, sometimes it's good to have a debate. I would also put heavier emphasis on Nationals scores and base values (not so much ranking) because placement 3-4 with like a twenty+ point gap is different from placement 3-4 with like a 2 point gap. Of course, this has its own issues with callers not calling accurately and judges going crazy with GOE and PCS and manipulating results to get pump up their arguments. This is one reason I didn't change Group 2 to Top 3 from Top 5 at Nationals because it was bad enough with Vincent Zhou getting an undeserved 3rd place finish despite the fact he made Priority 2, but there would have been even bigger reason to do so if I made Group 3 Top 3 at Nationals AND international scores as opposed to the current Top 5 placement at Nationals AND international scoring criteria.

I'm interested in what you all would do.

You do know that no matter what the criteria say, someone is gonna be pissed when a talented skater gets left off the team, no matter who that is. If we clarify the criteria further, something else will be the sore point.

 

[Rukia]

Group 1: Costumes I like and/or can make good jokes about
Group 2: Voiceovers in music
Group 3: I just like them
Group 4: Everyone else #noskaterleftbehind

 

[deegee]

Group 1: Costumes I like and/or can make good jokes about
Group 2: Voiceovers in music
Group 3: I just like them
Group 4: Everyone else #noskaterleftbehind

you win all the arguments about all the olympic selections today. this is clearly the only way forward.

 

[screech]

He can easily win the short if Yuzuru doesn’t do the team event.

Messing usually scores in the 90s for a good short program as well (his PB is just 0.47 less than Jason's), so Keegan could definitely defeat Jason there.

All that said, I'm fully expecting USFS to use Jason for the SP - he's reliable and will score well, likely within the top 3, potentially higher. It's their decision for the FP that will be interesting.

 

[becca]

He can easily win the short if Yuzuru doesn’t do the team event.

Messing usually scores in the 90s for a good short program as well (his PB is just 0.47 less than Jason's), so Keegan could definitely defeat Jason there.

All that said, I'm fully expecting USFS to use Jason for the SP - he's reliable and will score well, likely within the top 3, potentially higher. It's their decision for the FP that will be interesting.

Samarin to got a 98 in France.

 

[Karen-W]

Samarin to got a 98 in France.

Samarin won't be in Beijing.

 

[mackiecat]

Please. Uno and Kagiyama are both totally capable as well (both have scored over 100 this year), Zhou has a higher SP seasons best, Jin, Grassl, and Kvitelashvili are all higher on the list, too, and Messing and Kolyada are right behind him.

By that sound logic, any of those 7 countries could 'easily' win the short. Or finish 7th.

I'm repeating myself here, but Brown is not needed in the team event as any kind of advantage.

But there won’t be two Japanese men in the team event. Looking at all the Grand Prix results, the only skaters who can easily beat a clean Brown in the short is the one Japanese skater.
At Skate Canada a marred Briwn short beat a clean Messing.

 

[tony]

But there won’t be two Japanese men in the team event. Looking at all the Grand Prix results, the only skaters who can easily beat a clean Brown in the short is the one Japanese skater.
At Skate Canada a marred Briwn short beat a clean Messing.

I’m aware of how the team event works. I didn’t count two for the Japanese men- it’s either or. Any of those other skaters going clean, and they potentially best Brown as well.

Also, Messing wasn’t clean either at Skate Canada.

 

[Karen-W]

But there won’t be two Japanese men in the team event. Looking at all the Grand Prix results, the only skaters who can easily beat a clean Brown in the short is the one Japanese skater.
At Skate Canada a marred Briwn short beat a clean Messing.

In a BEST scores scenario for the TE, Brown would place 5th if we are looking at just this season's international comps. Uno (or any Japanese man), Jin, Grassl & Kvitelashvili all have higher SP scores. Kolyada & Messing have the potential to best Jason's SP SB of 94.00 but have yet to achieve that this season.

 

[becca]

In a BEST scores scenario for the TE, Brown would place 5th if we are looking at just this season's international comps. Uno (or any Japanese man), Jin, Grassl & Kvitelashvili all have higher SP scores. Kolyada & Messing have the potential to best Jason's SP SB of 94.00 but have yet to achieve that this season.

The problem isn’t that yes Jason could end up capitalizing on others errors very Much so. But if other skaters skate their best he won’t beat them he hands of too many technical points.

I am tired of the whole it’s not just about quads. It’s insulting to the skaters who master both.

I am sure if Jason could do them he would. But it’s not a winning strategy to hope others fall.

 

[On My Own]

I am tired of the whole it’s not just about quads. It’s insulting to the skaters who master both.

It's not even that there are skaters who master both. It's literally that Brown doesn't even get that much higher PCS than the rest of the field. So all Brown really has left is the principled argument of how there "should" be artistry in FS.

 

[becca]

It's not even that there are skaters who master both. It's literally that Brown doesn't even get that much higher PCS than the rest of the field. So all Brown really has left is the principled argument of how there "should" be artistry in FS.

I enjoy watching Kolyoda skating I wouldn’t say Jason is more artistic. Hanyu has some iconic programs. Keegan has great spins and is very fast.

The problem with “artistry” is that it is very very subjective.

Furthemore being the best is being well rounded. And that includes working on the jumps.

Even Jason said that if he could do it all over again there were things he should have worked on when he was a much younger skater.


There are men out there with very good skating skills and very good performance ability and who also have extremely good jumps.

It’s who combines it all.

 

[On My Own]

I enjoy watching Kolyoda skating I wouldn’t say Jason is more artistic

I don't particularly care either way of either of those two, in terms of artistry, or overall skating. I'm just saying that even if we posit that Brown is some sort of artistic skater well ahead of the field, and "it isn't just about quads", the scores literally say otherwise, that there are people extremely close to him on PCS, and even the so called non-artists simply exceed him in terms of scores (and aren't even that much behind on the PCS). We can argue against the scores, call the judges biased, incompetent, whatever, but when selecting a skater for a team event, the scoring potential is what matters, not what is being argued online.

 

[barbk]

The problem isn’t that yes Jason could end up capitalizing on others errors very Much so. But if other skaters skate their best he won’t beat them he hands of too many technical points.

I am tired of the whole it’s not just about quads. It’s insulting to the skaters who master both.

I am sure if Jason could do them he would. But it’s not a winning strategy to hope others fall.

Isn't this similar to Kwan? There were usually several skaters with technical skills who COULD beat her, at least theoretically, but they tended to be inconsistent whereas Kwan tended to be remarkably reliable. Not that I know her (or Brown), but I don't get the impression that she went into competitions hoping others would fall.

Brown could have a terrible SP. However, most of the time, his SP has been solid and high-scoring across many years of competition. The same can't be said for Kolyada, Messing, or any number of guys not named Hanyu or Chen. All things being equal, if Nathan doesn't want to do the SP in the team event, I'd rather have Brown than Zhou or Malinin. I'd probably go with Zhou for the free and just hope he doesn't feck it up.

 

[VGThuy]

I bet that if Nathan does the TE SP and does well and things play out where the US really does have a chance to win the gold even with Russian and ladies and pairs winning the top spot in the LP, the USFS will beg Nathan to do the LP as well and try to argue having one gold medal nearly guaranteed twill be better than leaving it to someone else’s hands and risk losing it and risk losing the individual as well when a gold is within reach with “just” one more LP performance. He may feel like doing the TE LP will leave him too tired for the individual but maybe he’ll be convinced anyway.

 

[On My Own]

Kwan used to do 7 triple LPs, though, like at 2001 worlds, in addition to the presentation. Sure, she dropped the 3T+3T, but even at 2003 worlds, it was hardly the huge technical disadvantage that Brown has against the rest of the field.

 

[Karen-W]

I bet that if Nathan does the TE SP and does well and things play out where the US really does have a chance to win the gold even with Russian and ladies and pairs winning the top spot in the LP, the USFS will beg Nathan to do the LP as well and try to argue having one gold medal nearly guaranteed twill be better than leaving it to someone else’s hands and risk losing it and risk losing the individual as well when a gold is within reach with “just” one more LP performance. He may feel like doing the TE LP will leave him too tired for the individual but maybe he’ll be convinced anyway.

Nah, they have to name the TE Men's FS participant as soon as the Women’s SP is complete and the men literally are taking the ice immediately afterward. There is no way they would beg Nathan nor would he be ready to compete on that short of notice.

 

[screech]

I bet that if Nathan does the TE SP and does well and things play out where the US really does have a chance to win the gold even with Russian and ladies and pairs winning the top spot in the LP, the USFS will beg Nathan to do the LP as well and try to argue having one gold medal nearly guaranteed twill be better than leaving it to someone else’s hands and risk losing it and risk losing the individual as well when a gold is within reach with “just” one more LP performance. He may feel like doing the TE LP will leave him too tired for the individual but maybe he’ll be convinced anyway.

Don't forget Russia in the ice dance too. In theory, Russia will win 3 of the 4 events (all depending on SinKats), and the mens event will likely be between USA and Japan. So unless the ice is incredibly slippery those few days, I don't foresee USFS risking Nathan failing in the individual event for the slim chance of winning the team event. In any case they're incredibly likely to have an improvement on their bronze medal result of the last 2 games.

 

[VGThuy]

Nah, they have to name the TE Men's FS participant as soon as the Women’s SP is complete and the men literally are taking the ice immediately afterward. There is no way they would beg Nathan nor would he be ready to compete on that short of notice.

Are the women SP the last to go for the SP portion? If so, they may ask Nathan to prepare for the LP ahead of time in the case it becomes really close for gold.