Rough prediction of 2024-25 GP spot allocation

[rinettoii]

WOMEN

This prediction hinges on the assumption that

• those who have been banned from competing will still be banned in 2024-25 and
• that no one is unexpectedly sitting out/retiring and
• ISU uses the same rules they’ve historically used for GP spot allocation.

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Sakamoto - JPN
Levito - USA
C. Kim - KOR
Hendrickx - BEL
Repond - SUI
H. Lee - KOR
Chiba - JPN
Yoshida - JPN
Kaiser - SUI
Glenn - USA
Kurakova - POL
You - KOR

Comeback clause:
Liu - USA

Based on previous instances, Liu will likely get 2 invites (1 host invite to Skate America and 1 invite to another; see Kagiyama and Higuchi in 2023-24 GP season). This covers 26/72 spots.

Here is the updated World Standings list after the 2021/22 season's scores are dropped:

Kaori SAKAMOTO

Isabeau LEVITO

Loena HENDRICKX

Chaeyeon KIM

Haein LEE

Hana YOSHIDA

Anastasiia GUBANOVA

Rinka WATANABE

Ekaterina KURAKOVA

Yelim KIM

Nina PINZARRONE

Niina PETROKINA

Mone CHIBA

Mai MIHARA

Madeline SCHIZAS

Amber GLENN

Kimmy REPOND

Ava Marie ZIEGLER

Mao SHIMADA

Lorine SCHILD

Jia SHIN

Lindsay THORNGREN

Lara Naki GUTMANN

Sofja STEPCENKO

Not top 12 at Worlds, Top 24 in updated World Standings AND Top 24 in Season’s Best (will likely get 2 each):
Gubanova - GEO
Watanabe - JPN
Pinzarrone - BEL
Petrokina - EST
Ziegler - USA
Thorngren - USA

This now covers 38/72 spots.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in updated World Standings (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Yelim Kim - KOR (28th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Mihara - JPN (33rd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schizas - CAN (25th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schild - FRA (35th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Gutmann - ITA (likely 1 spot)
Stepcenko - LAT (likely 1 spot)

Shimada (JPN) and J. Shin (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in Season’s Best (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Matsuike - JPN (14th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Sumiyoshi - JPN (15th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Wi - KOR (22nd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Higuchi - JPN (24th on SB list —> 2 spots)

Uezono (JPN), Nakai (JPN), and Yuseong Kim (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.

This now covers 56/72 spots.


These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
TBD - USA (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CAN (likely savings 2 spots)
TBD - FIN (likely saving 3 spots)
TBD - FRA (likely saving 2 spots; could be 3 if Schild gets assigned somewhere else)
TBD - JPN (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CHN (likely saving 3 spots)

This now covers 68 or 69/72 spots.


The theoretically 3 or 4 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list:
Tennell - USA
Aoki - JPN (After this JPN has maxed out its spots)
M. Kim - KOR
Joos - ITA


Please leave any questions you have about my methodology. I'm no expert by any means, but I thought it would be fun to get a preview of the landscape for the next Grand Prix season.

 

[Karen-W]

This prediction hinges on the assumption that

• those who have been banned from competing will still be banned in 2024-25 and
• that no one is unexpectedly sitting out/retiring and
• ISU uses the same rules they’ve historically used for GP spot allocation.

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Sakamoto - JPN
Levito - USA
C. Kim - KOR
Hendrickx - BEL
Repond - SUI
H. Lee - KOR
Chiba - JPN
Yoshida - JPN
Kaiser - SUI
Glenn - USA
Kurakova - POL
You - KOR

Comeback clause:
Liu - USA

Based on previous instances, Liu will likely get 2 invites (1 host invite to Skate America and 1 invite to another; see Kagiyama and Higuchi in 2023-24 GP season). This covers 26/72 spots.

Here is the updated World Standings list after the 2021/22 season's scores are dropped:

Kaori SAKAMOTO

Isabeau LEVITO

Loena HENDRICKX

Chaeyeon KIM

Haein LEE

Hana YOSHIDA

Anastasiia GUBANOVA

Rinka WATANABE

Ekaterina KURAKOVA

Yelim KIM

Nina PINZARRONE

Niina PETROKINA

Mone CHIBA

Mai MIHARA

Madeline SCHIZAS

Amber GLENN

Kimmy REPOND

Ava Marie ZIEGLER

Mao SHIMADA

Lorine SCHILD

Jia SHIN

Lindsay THORNGREN

Lara Naki GUTMANN

Sofja STEPCENKO

Not top 12 at Worlds, Top 24 in updated World Standings AND Top 24 in Season’s Best (will likely get 2 each):
Gubanova - GEO
Watanabe - JPN
Pinzarrone - BEL
Petrokina - EST
Ziegler - USA
Thorngren - USA

This now covers 38/72 spots.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in updated World Standings (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Yelim Kim - KOR (28th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Mihara - JPN (33rd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schizas - CAN (25th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schild - FRA (35th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Gutmann - ITA (likely 1 spot)
Stepcenko - LAT (likely 1 spot)

Shimada (JPN) and J. Shin (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in Season’s Best (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Matsuike - JPN (14th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Sumiyoshi - JPN (15th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Wi - KOR (22nd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Higuchi - JPN (24th on SB list —> 2 spots)

Uezono (JPN), Nakai (JPN), and Yuseong Kim (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.

This now covers 56/72 spots.


These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
TBD - USA (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CAN (likely savings 2 spots)
TBD - FIN (likely saving 3 spots)
TBD - FRA (likely saving 2 spots; could be 3 if Schild gets assigned somewhere else)
TBD - JPN (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CHN (likely saving 3 spots)

This now covers 68 or 69/72 spots.


The theoretically 3 or 4 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list:
Tennell - USA
Aoki - JPN (After this JPN has maxed out its spots)
M. Kim - KOR
Joos - ITA


Please leave any questions you have about my methodology. I'm no expert by any means, but I thought it would be fun to get a preview of the landscape for the next Grand Prix season.

I roughly agree with these projections, though I think some of the Host spots will be assigned straightaway.

I'm not sure the GP host fed will drop all the way to #40 with Joos for an initial GP assignment. I think it's more likely that Tennell gets 2. Then again, Serna is sitting at #41 and very likely to be one of the host picks for GPdF, so maybe the host feds could decide to toss Joos one GP.

Aoki would be next in line for 2 but JPN has 8 women guaranteed or VERY likely to get 2 and I can't see them giving Aoki a 2nd assignment because then they wouldn't have a TBD spot at NHK.

Also, the Alternates List is going to be pretty thin - there are 26 women on the SB 75 who are juniors and aren't senior age-eligible.

 

[Jarrett]

I'm ready for the Grand Prix in March! lol

 

[rinettoii]

I roughly agree with these projections, though I think some of the Host spots will be assigned straightaway.

I'm not sure the GP host fed will drop all the way to #40 with Joos for an initial GP assignment. I think it's more likely that Tennell gets 2. Then again, Serna is sitting at #41 and very likely to be one of the host picks for GPdF, so maybe the host feds could decide to toss Joos one GP.

Aoki would be next in line for 2 but JPN has 8 women guaranteed or VERY likely to get 2 and I can't see them giving Aoki a 2nd assignment because then they wouldn't have a TBD spot at NHK.

Also, the Alternates List is going to be pretty thin - there are 26 women on the SB 75 who are juniors and aren't senior age-eligible.

I agree as well. For the USA TBD, they might just give Bradie a 2nd one, or they have a pool of Elyce/Starr/Clare/Sarah to choose from. For the 2 CAN TBD spots, it'll be some combination of Ruiter/Miclette/Dupuis likely. Finland and China are in similar situations where they don't have skaters who might get assignments outright, but they'll be able to fill in the 3 each. France is kind of a toss-up between a few skaters aside from Lorine.

Regarding Tennell's potential 2nd assignment over Joos' 1 assignment, the trend I've been noticing lately for skaters after 24th on the SB list follows a "spread the wealth" approach. That's why I listed her as a 1-assignment-getter, but I totally understand the train of thought that she might not get one because 41 is really deep down on the SB list.

I think this really speaks to how the change in age rules is truly opening up opportunities for skaters lower on the SB list to earn assignments.

 

[Jarrett]

I would be surprised if Sarah or Elyce get any initial GP assignment because that would be to forward thinking of the USFSA but they better get all the Bs they want!

 

[Karen-W]

I agree as well. For the USA TBD, they might just give Bradie a 2nd one, or they have a pool of Elyce/Starr/Clare/Sarah to choose from. For the 2 CAN TBD spots, it'll be some combination of Ruiter/Miclette/Dupuis likely. Finland and China are in similar situations where they don't have skaters who might get assignments outright, but they'll be able to fill in the 3 each. France is kind of a toss-up between a few skaters aside from Lorine.

Regarding Tennell's potential 2nd assignment over Joos' 1 assignment, the trend I've been noticing lately for skaters after 24th on the SB list follows a "spread the wealth" approach. That's why I listed her as a 1-assignment-getter, but I totally understand the train of thought that she might not get one because 41 is really deep down on the SB list.

I think this really speaks to how the change in age rules is truly opening up opportunities for skaters lower on the SB list to earn assignments.

CAN TBD - I am 100% positive that one of those has Ruiter's name on it on the initial assignments list. They'll not do dirty to their National Champ like that, plus she's their next highest woman on the SB list at 60. Dupuis and Miclette are sitting at 61 & 69 respectively on the SB list so I think it's possible that Skate Canada will TBD that spot and figure it out in September.

FIN TBD - I could see the Finnish fed assigning Jyrkinen and Pelkonen initially. A healthy Jyrkinen is, easily, their strongest woman. And Pelkonen made it to the FS this week which guaranteed FIN a Direct Entry for 2025 Worlds. 3rd spot is likely to be TBD.

CHN TBD - Hard to say. Part of me thinks that An and Chen will be assigned initially - Chen is SB 73 and An is a promising talent. 3rd spot would be TBD for sure.

FRA TBD - Serna is the only other Frenchwoman on the SB 75 list so I expect she'll get a host assignment on the initial list. Last year the FFSG didn't assign Schild to GPdF initially, hoping for a 2nd assignment elsewhere for her, but in the end Schild's 2nd GP was, indeed, to GPdF. They might try that again but I think the result will end up the same. They might be better off just assigning Schild to GPdF as her 2nd event and hope that Serna gets a 2nd invite since she is going to be very high up on the Alternates List.

USA TBD - won't go to Tennell unless she earns it at Champs Camp. And, even then... I'd bet on one of those other 4 you mentioned getting the SkAm TBD spot. Bradie, like Lea Serna, is going to be so high up on the Alternates List that I'll be very surprised if she doesn't wind up with a 2nd assignment elsewhere even if she doesn't have 2 initially.

 

[Karen-W]

I would be surprised if Sarah or Elyce get any initial GP assignment because that would be to forward thinking of the USFSA but they better get all the Bs they want!

Elyce is 44 on the SB list and there are 5 sr age-ineligible juniors ahead of her between 25-43. She'll be in the first group of 10 for the Alternates list. I agree that an initial GP assignment is unlikely, however I could see her getting one as an alternate.

Sarah is way down at 72 on the SB list so she's not likely to get any GP unless it's the SkAm TBD host spot that the USFS will have up for grabs. But she'll be competing with Starr (SB 54) and Clare (SB 63) for it - and probably Elyce too.

I'd guess that those 4 had better be prepared for Cranberry Cup.

 

[rinettoii]

MEN

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Malinin - USA
Kagiyama - JPN
Siao Him Fa - FRA
Uno - JPN
Brown - USA --> Based on the fact that he's sat out the last 2 GP seasons, I don't think he'll participate in the upcoming one either.
Britschgi - SUI
Vasiljevs - LAT
Miura - JPN
Memola - ITA
Cha - KOR
Selevko - EST
Gorodnitsky - ISR
Egadze - GEO --> Added if Brown sits out. Even if Brown doesn't sit out, Egadze will get 2 from being in top 24 SB and WS.

Comeback clause:
Grassl - ITA (lol idk?)

I'm gonna assume that Grassl isn't coming back in time for the upcoming GP season. This covers 24/72 spots.

Here is the updated World Standings list after the 2021/22 season's scores are dropped:

Ilia MALININ

Adam SIAO HIM FA

Shoma UNO

Kao MIURA

Lukas BRITSCHGI

Shun SATO

Matteo RIZZO

Sota YAMAMOTO

Nika EGADZE

Junhwan CHA

Yuma KAGIYAMA

Nikolaj MEMOLA

Kevin AYMOZ

Mikhail SHAIDOROV

Deniss VASILJEVS

Gabriele FRANGIPANI

Kazuki TOMONO

Adam HAGARA

Aleksandr SELEVKO

Boyang JIN

Francois PITOT

Camden PULKINEN

Mark GORODNITSKY

Jason BROWN

Not top 12 at Worlds, Top 24 in updated World Standings AND Top 24 in Season’s Best (will likely get 2 each):
Aymoz - FRA
Sato - JPN
Tomono - JPN
Shaidorov - KAZ
Yamamoto - JPN
Jin - CHN
Frangipani - ITA
Rizzo - ITA

This now covers 40/72 spots.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in updated World Standings (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Hagara - SVK (37th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Pitot - FRA (1 spot)
Pulkinen - USA (31st on SB list —> 2 spots)


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in Season’s Best (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Shimada - JPN (20th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Chiu - CAN (23rd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Litvintsev - AZE (24th on SB list —> 2 spots)

This now covers 51/72 spots.


These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
TBD - USA (likely saving 1 spot for either Hiwatashi/Kapeikis/Martynov/Broussard/Naumov/etc.)
TBD - CAN (likely saving 1 spot for either Gogolev/Sadovsky/Orzel/Rakic/etc.)
TBD - FIN (likely saving 2 spots for Virtanen and Suntsev)
TBD - FRA (likely saving 1 spot for either Pitot/Economides/Le May/etc.)
TBD - JPN (likely saving 1 spot for many worthy candidates)
TBD - CHN (likely saving 2 spots for Chen/Dai/Xu/etc.)

This now covers 59/72 spots.


The theoretically 13 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list (1 each):
Torgashev - USA
Lim - KOR (might stay junior)
Yoshioka - JPN
Gogolev - CAN
Carrillo - MEX
Economides - FRA
Hyungyeom Kim - KOR (might stay junior)
Samoilov - POL
Reshtenko - CZE
M. Selevko - EST
Hiwatashi - USA
Sadovsky - CAN
Kapeikis - USA

I'm surprised how far down the SB list is being reached to fill in the spots.

 

[Jarrett]

GORODNITSKY is representing Israel not Italy.

 

[rinettoii]

GORODNITSKY is representing Israel not Italy.

That was an accident. It's corrected now.

 

[Karen-W]

I'd bet on Pitot getting 2 GPs - FRA will leave at least 2 host spots open and play the same game with him as they did with Schild last season. They'll have Adam and probably send Kevin elsewhere this year so that they can give Economides at least 1 GP (and 2 if he is selected elsewhere as projected).

 

[Karen-W]

Also, I will not be one bit surprised if Uno calls it a career. He was dropping hints during the GP season, especially after NHK, but also after the GPF, that this could be his last season.

 

[jlai]

If Uno retires his skating will be missed but great opportunity for all the remaining and deserving Japanese boys

 

[Karen-W]

If Uno retires his skating will be missed but great opportunity for all the remaining and deserving Japanese boys

Surprisingly, there seems to be a bit of a thinning in the ranks of the Japanese men. I don't think they're going to max out with 18 spots.

Guaranteed 2 - Kagiyama, Miura
Guaranteed 1 but likely 2 - Sato, Yamamoto, Tomono, Yoshioka, Shimada

SB Top 75 - Tsuboi 47, Nakamura 51, Kataise 55

The 7 guys who are guaranteed spots will use up 14, but I think Tsuboi, Nakamura & Kataise are far enough down the SB list that they'll not get 1 on the initial assignments list and will probably battle it out for 1 or 2 NHK TBD spots.

 

[Karen-W]

Time for Pairs GP predictions!

48 spots and this is gonna always hurt/burn some teams that deserve two..

Top 10 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Miura/Kihara
Hase/Volodin
Pavlova/Sviatchenko
Hocke/Kunkel
Conti/Macii
Metelkina/Berulava
Pereira/Michaud
Beccari/Guarise
Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore

48-20 = 28

Top 24 in both World Standings & Season's Best guaranteed 1 each (I'll explain the reasoning why some of these teams are probably only getting 1 further below):
Ghilardi/Ambrosini 3/9 >> likely 2
Plazas/Fernandez 9/18 >> likely 1
Danilova/Tsiba 12/15 >> likely 2
Kam/O'Shea 13/11 >> likely 2
Chan/Howe 14/17 >> likely 2
Kovalev/Kovalev 15/19 >> likely 2
Laurin/Ethier 16/16 >> likely 1
Liu/Nagy 24/14 >> likely 1

28 - 13 = 15

Top 24 in Season's Best guaranteed 1 each:
Peng/Wang 12 >> likely 2
Vaananen/Clerici >> likely 2

15 - 4 = 11

Top 24 in World Standings guaranteed 1 each:
Vaipan-Law/Digby 18 (28 in SB)
Valesi/Piazza 20 (27 SB)
Sierova/Khobta 21 (34 SB) - they still have 1 more season of jr eligibility and I think I read somewhere that they plan on staying on the JGP next season

11 - 2 = 9

These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
SkAM - 2 - USFS will do as they did last year and save 2 host spots (probably Efimova/Mitrofanov and McBeath/Parkman)
SCI - 1 - Skate Canada could bite the bullet here and assign Laurin/Ethier outright to ensure they have a 2nd GP on the initial assignments list but I think they'll hold off if Bombardier/Mimar look promising this spring/early summer.
GPdF - 2 - FFSG will probably assign Piegad/Strekalin on the initial assignments list and hold one as TBD - probably will release it and invite one of those teams who didn't get 2 but deserved 2 (PlaFern, LaurEth or LiuNagy). They'll most certainly assign Les Kovs on the initial list and Les Kovs will get a 2nd assignment elsewhere by virtue of being the only French team on both the SB & WS Top 24 lists.
NHK - 2 - JSF will certainly assign Nagaoka/Moriguchi and could hold the other as TBD if Shimizu/Honda elect to compete senior rather than on the JGP next fall, but they'll also monitor Shimizu/Honda and could wind up giving that 2nd spot up.
GP Helsinki - Finnish fed will certainly assign Vaananen/Clerici to this event and they'll probably cut a deal with one of other host feds to invite one of their teams that is looking for a 2nd assignment (LaurEth, PlaFern or LiuNagy) in order to secure a 2nd assignment for VaaCler.
CoC - 2 - Chinese fed will probably take the same approach as the Finnish fed with regard to securing a 2nd assignment for Peng/Wang, but they're certainly going to hold their other 2 host spots for their own teams. They might assign Wang/Zhu who are 43 on the SB list outright in addition to Peng/Wang and let the rest of their teams compete for the last spot.

2+1+2+2+2 = 9

It's going to be tough for any team who is not guaranteed 1 GP that isn't from a host fed to get any GP assignments. The GP commission and host feds seem to favor teams that are higher on the SB list rather than the WS list, so that's part of why I can see teams like Peng/Wang and Vaananen/Clerici who were brand new to the international scene this year getting two ahead of some of the more established teams who have two seasons' worth of WS points. And, I can certainly see the USFS deciding to just toss all the coins in the air for those 2 SkAm TBD host spots and letting a bunch of teams duke it out for them instead of trying to scramble to get all 4 teams on the SB and WS Top 24 lists 2 assignments each - and when they're prioritizing which teams to throw their weight behind for 2 assignments initially they're likely to back Kam/O'Shea (Nat'l Champs, highest placement at Worlds and 4CCs bronze medalists) and Chan/Howe (2nd highest placement at Worlds, out most of the season due to injury).

Ultimately, given that Pairs usually has the most withdrawals as a percentage of the overall field, I expect that teams like PlaFern, LaurEth and LiuNagy WILL wind up with 2 GPs when it's all said and done and we're looking back on the season. I just don't expect them to get 2 on the initial assignments list.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

WOMEN

This prediction hinges on the assumption that

• those who have been banned from competing will still be banned in 2024-25 and
• that no one is unexpectedly sitting out/retiring and
• ISU uses the same rules they’ve historically used for GP spot allocation.

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Sakamoto - JPN
Levito - USA
C. Kim - KOR
Hendrickx - BEL
Repond - SUI
H. Lee - KOR
Chiba - JPN
Yoshida - JPN
Kaiser - SUI
Glenn - USA
Kurakova - POL
You - KOR

Comeback clause:
Liu - USA

Based on previous instances, Liu will likely get 2 invites (1 host invite to Skate America and 1 invite to another; see Kagiyama and Higuchi in 2023-24 GP season). This covers 26/72 spots.

Here is the updated World Standings list after the 2021/22 season's scores are dropped:

Kaori SAKAMOTO

Isabeau LEVITO

Loena HENDRICKX

Chaeyeon KIM

Haein LEE

Hana YOSHIDA

Anastasiia GUBANOVA

Rinka WATANABE

Ekaterina KURAKOVA

Yelim KIM

Nina PINZARRONE

Niina PETROKINA

Mone CHIBA

Mai MIHARA

Madeline SCHIZAS

Amber GLENN

Kimmy REPOND

Ava Marie ZIEGLER

Mao SHIMADA

Lorine SCHILD

Jia SHIN

Lindsay THORNGREN

Lara Naki GUTMANN

Sofja STEPCENKO

Not top 12 at Worlds, Top 24 in updated World Standings AND Top 24 in Season’s Best (will likely get 2 each):
Gubanova - GEO
Watanabe - JPN
Pinzarrone - BEL
Petrokina - EST
Ziegler - USA
Thorngren - USA

This now covers 38/72 spots.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in updated World Standings (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Yelim Kim - KOR (28th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Mihara - JPN (33rd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schizas - CAN (25th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schild - FRA (35th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Gutmann - ITA (likely 1 spot)
Stepcenko - LAT (likely 1 spot)

Shimada (JPN) and J. Shin (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in Season’s Best (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Matsuike - JPN (14th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Sumiyoshi - JPN (15th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Wi - KOR (22nd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Higuchi - JPN (24th on SB list —> 2 spots)

Uezono (JPN), Nakai (JPN), and Yuseong Kim (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.

This now covers 56/72 spots.


These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
TBD - USA (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CAN (likely savings 2 spots)
TBD - FIN (likely saving 3 spots)
TBD - FRA (likely saving 2 spots; could be 3 if Schild gets assigned somewhere else)
TBD - JPN (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CHN (likely saving 3 spots)

This now covers 68 or 69/72 spots.


The theoretically 3 or 4 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list:
Tennell - USA
Aoki - JPN (After this JPN has maxed out its spots)
M. Kim - KOR
Joos - ITA


Please leave any questions you have about my methodology. I'm no expert by any means, but I thought it would be fun to get a preview of the landscape for the next Grand Prix season.

Wow, you have a dedication and a focus that is admirable.

 

[Samurina]

WOMEN

This prediction hinges on the assumption that

• those who have been banned from competing will still be banned in 2024-25 and
• that no one is unexpectedly sitting out/retiring and
• ISU uses the same rules they’ve historically used for GP spot allocation.

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Sakamoto - JPN
Levito - USA
C. Kim - KOR
Hendrickx - BEL
Repond - SUI
H. Lee - KOR
Chiba - JPN
Yoshida - JPN
Kaiser - SUI
Glenn - USA
Kurakova - POL
You - KOR

Comeback clause:
Liu - USA

Based on previous instances, Liu will likely get 2 invites (1 host invite to Skate America and 1 invite to another; see Kagiyama and Higuchi in 2023-24 GP season). This covers 26/72 spots.

Here is the updated World Standings list after the 2021/22 season's scores are dropped:

Kaori SAKAMOTO

Isabeau LEVITO

Loena HENDRICKX

Chaeyeon KIM

Haein LEE

Hana YOSHIDA

Anastasiia GUBANOVA

Rinka WATANABE

Ekaterina KURAKOVA

Yelim KIM

Nina PINZARRONE

Niina PETROKINA

Mone CHIBA

Mai MIHARA

Madeline SCHIZAS

Amber GLENN

Kimmy REPOND

Ava Marie ZIEGLER

Mao SHIMADA

Lorine SCHILD

Jia SHIN

Lindsay THORNGREN

Lara Naki GUTMANN

Sofja STEPCENKO

Not top 12 at Worlds, Top 24 in updated World Standings AND Top 24 in Season’s Best (will likely get 2 each):
Gubanova - GEO
Watanabe - JPN
Pinzarrone - BEL
Petrokina - EST
Ziegler - USA
Thorngren - USA

This now covers 38/72 spots.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in updated World Standings (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Yelim Kim - KOR (28th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Mihara - JPN (33rd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schizas - CAN (25th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schild - FRA (35th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Gutmann - ITA (likely 1 spot)
Stepcenko - LAT (likely 1 spot)

Shimada (JPN) and J. Shin (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in Season’s Best (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Matsuike - JPN (14th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Sumiyoshi - JPN (15th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Wi - KOR (22nd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Higuchi - JPN (24th on SB list —> 2 spots)

Uezono (JPN), Nakai (JPN), and Yuseong Kim (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.

This now covers 56/72 spots.


These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
TBD - USA (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CAN (likely savings 2 spots)
TBD - FIN (likely saving 3 spots)
TBD - FRA (likely saving 2 spots; could be 3 if Schild gets assigned somewhere else)
TBD - JPN (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CHN (likely saving 3 spots)

This now covers 68 or 69/72 spots.


The theoretically 3 or 4 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list:
Tennell - USA
Aoki - JPN (After this JPN has maxed out its spots)
M. Kim - KOR
Joos - ITA


Please leave any questions you have about my methodology. I'm no expert by any means, but I thought it would be fun to get a preview of the landscape for the next Grand Prix season.

Wait im so happy Stepcenko and Gutmann will get assignments, sucks for Taljegård and Sauter tho

 

[Samurina]

Time for Pairs GP predictions!

48 spots and this is gonna always hurt/burn some teams that deserve two..

Top 10 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Miura/Kihara
Hase/Volodin
Pavlova/Sviatchenko
Hocke/Kunkel
Conti/Macii
Metelkina/Berulava
Pereira/Michaud
Beccari/Guarise
Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore

48-20 = 28

Top 24 in both World Standings & Season's Best guaranteed 1 each (I'll explain the reasoning why some of these teams are probably only getting 1 further below):
Ghilardi/Ambrosini 3/9 >> likely 2
Plazas/Fernandez 9/18 >> likely 1
Danilova/Tsiba 12/15 >> likely 2
Kam/O'Shea 13/11 >> likely 2
Chan/Howe 14/17 >> likely 2
Kovalev/Kovalev 15/19 >> likely 2
Laurin/Ethier 16/16 >> likely 1
Liu/Nagy 24/14 >> likely 1

28 - 13 = 15

Top 24 in Season's Best guaranteed 1 each:
Peng/Wang 12 >> likely 2
Vaananen/Clerici >> likely 2

15 - 4 = 11

Top 24 in World Standings guaranteed 1 each:
Vaipan-Law/Digby 18 (28 in SB)
Valesi/Piazza 20 (27 SB)
Sierova/Khobta 21 (34 SB) - they still have 1 more season of jr eligibility and I think I read somewhere that they plan on staying on the JGP next season

11 - 2 = 9

These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
SkAM - 2 - USFS will do as they did last year and save 2 host spots (probably Efimova/Mitrofanov and McBeath/Parkman)
SCI - 1 - Skate Canada could bite the bullet here and assign Laurin/Ethier outright to ensure they have a 2nd GP on the initial assignments list but I think they'll hold off if Bombardier/Mimar look promising this spring/early summer.
GPdF - 2 - FFSG will probably assign Piegad/Strekalin on the initial assignments list and hold one as TBD - probably will release it and invite one of those teams who didn't get 2 but deserved 2 (PlaFern, LaurEth or LiuNagy). They'll most certainly assign Les Kovs on the initial list and Les Kovs will get a 2nd assignment elsewhere by virtue of being the only French team on both the SB & WS Top 24 lists.
NHK - 2 - JSF will certainly assign Nagaoka/Moriguchi and could hold the other as TBD if Shimizu/Honda elect to compete senior rather than on the JGP next fall, but they'll also monitor Shimizu/Honda and could wind up giving that 2nd spot up.
GP Helsinki - Finnish fed will certainly assign Vaananen/Clerici to this event and they'll probably cut a deal with one of other host feds to invite one of their teams that is looking for a 2nd assignment (LaurEth, PlaFern or LiuNagy) in order to secure a 2nd assignment for VaaCler.
CoC - 2 - Chinese fed will probably take the same approach as the Finnish fed with regard to securing a 2nd assignment for Peng/Wang, but they're certainly going to hold their other 2 host spots for their own teams. They might assign Wang/Zhu who are 43 on the SB list outright in addition to Peng/Wang and let the rest of their teams compete for the last spot.

2+1+2+2+2 = 9

It's going to be tough for any team who is not guaranteed 1 GP that isn't from a host fed to get any GP assignments. The GP commission and host feds seem to favor teams that are higher on the SB list rather than the WS list, so that's part of why I can see teams like Peng/Wang and Vaananen/Clerici who were brand new to the international scene this year getting two ahead of some of the more established teams who have two seasons' worth of WS points. And, I can certainly see the USFS deciding to just toss all the coins in the air for those 2 SkAm TBD host spots and letting a bunch of teams duke it out for them instead of trying to scramble to get all 4 teams on the SB and WS Top 24 lists 2 assignments each - and when they're prioritizing which teams to throw their weight behind for 2 assignments initially they're likely to back Kam/O'Shea (Nat'l Champs, highest placement at Worlds and 4CCs bronze medalists) and Chan/Howe (2nd highest placement at Worlds, out most of the season due to injury).

Ultimately, given that Pairs usually has the most withdrawals as a percentage of the overall field, I expect that teams like PlaFern, LaurEth and LiuNagy WILL wind up with 2 GPs when it's all said and done and we're looking back on the season. I just don't expect them to get 2 on the initial assignments list.

wait what about Holichenko/Darenskyi, can't they get anything they are right at 25

 

[Karen-W]

wait what about Holichenko/Darenskyi, can't they get anything they are right at 25

Probably not on the initial assignments list. No one outside the SB/WS Top 24 who wasn't from a host fed got a GP on the initial assignments list. Even Vouillamoz/Giniaux who were in the WS Top 24 only got their home GPdF assignment and nothing else.

There were 3 teams on both the SB and WS Top 24 who only got 1 assignment - Roscher/Schuster, Caldara/Maglio and Osipova/Epstein. Of course, OsiEp then split before the GP and their assignment went unfilled because there wasn't enough time to get a replacement team in - CalMag were assigned to the same GP so they couldn't get the vacant spot. And then by the time the next GP spot opened up, RoSchu were injured so ValPia (who were only on the WS Top 24) were given a 2nd one instead.

Here's the timeline of how the withdrawals and replacements for GP Pairs spots last year went, along with host TBD announcements:

Piegad/Strekalin - initial GPdF assignment (SB 40)
Nagaoka/Moriguchi - initial NHK assignment (new team)
Vaananen/Clerici - initial GP Espoo assignment (new team internationally)
Liu/Nagy - filled one SkAm host spot August/early September prior to Champs Camp (new team)
Mokhova/Mokhov - replaced Smirnova/Siianytsia at CoC in mid-September when they announced their split (so, the Chinese fed lost a seeded US team and invited a non-seeded US team who were SB 28)
Beccari/Guarise - gained 2nd GP as replacement for Smirnova/Siianytsia at NHK in mid-September (SB 23)
Peng/Wang - gained 2nd GP by filling one CoC host spot early October (new team exercising Return Split Couple clause)
Zhang/Yang - filled one CoC host spot early October (SB 29)
Wang/Zhu - filled one CoC host spot early October (not on SB list)
Hanns/Neudecker - filled one SkAm host spot late September/early October (new team internationally)
Vaipan-Law/Digby - replaced Miura/Kihara at SkAm about in early October (SB 35)
Martins/Bedard - replaced Hanns/Neudecker for SkAm host spot early October (new team internationally)
Valesi/Piazza - gained 2nd GP as replacement for Chan/Howe at CoC mid-October (WS Top 24/SB 33)
Liu/Nagy - gained 2nd GP as replacement for Chan/Howe at NHK mid-November (new team, won bronze at SkAm)
Hase/Volodin - gained 2nd GP as replacement for Miura/Kihara at NHK late November (new team internationally, won bronze at GP Espoo the week before)

The GP Host feds have played a bit fast and loose with the Alternates List the past two seasons - they're more willing to give a brand-new team internationally that scores well in an early Challenger a GP assignment (or a 2nd one in the case of Hase/Volodin and Peng/Wang who exercised the Return Split Couple clause, and Beccari/Guarise who had limited int'l opportunities the previous year) rather than go down the alternates list and select teams who haven't demonstrated as high of scoring potential.

The biggest problem (apart from there only being 48 pairs GP spots total) for Holichenko/Darenskiy, even sitting at SB 25, is that their SB is a good 10 points lower than the teams higher up the list who are going to get assignments (Kemp/Elizarov & Flores/Wang are too young for seniors, and McIntosh/Mimar and Proft/Nadeau have split/retired). There will be other teams below them on the SB list who get a GP - but that's only because they're from host feds.

 

[SidelineSkater]

Working on my dance list. Can those in the know recap who is likely staying junior and who is coming up to seniors?

 

[Sylvia]

Working on my dance list. Can those in the know recap who is likely staying junior and who is coming up to seniors?

Paging @Andrea82!

 

[Wyliefan]

These dancers are aging out of juniors:

For dance, Pinchuk/Pogorielov, Tali/Lafornara, Pedersen/Chen, Carhart/Horovyi, Bland/Sperry, and Nguyen/Giang

Grimm/Savitskiy are leaning toward a split season, which most likely means junior GP, not senior.

I think Neset/Markelov are moving up, but I'm not sure -- someone please remind me!

 

[Karen-W]

These dancers are aging out of juniors:

Grimm/Savitskiy are leaning toward a split season, which most likely means junior GP, not senior.

I think Neset/Markelov are moving up, but I'm not sure -- someone please remind me!

Neset/Markelov haven't said whether they're moving up. My updated WD calculations have them winding up at #22. Same goes for Fradji/Forneaux - my updated WS calculations have them winding up at #24, which would guarantee them both 1 GP. The big difference is NesMark are 29 on the SB and FraForn are 55 on the SB. I lean toward NesMark moving up but I'd tell FraForn to stay on the JGP another season.

Kudryavtseva/Karankevich have said they ARE moving up.

No word yet on Tkachenko/Kiliakov, Zehnder/Sieber or some of the other teams that have at least one more season of Jr eligibility.

 

[Karen-W]

Okay, so I know @SidelineSkater is working on their Dance projections. I've got mine ready, so I'll go first! A little bit easier than Pairs since there are 60 spots. I'm a bit torn on one of my projections but more on that later.

I really think Gilles/Poirier are going to retire but for the purposes of projections this early in the season, I'll go with them staying in. FBSoer, on the other hand, I'm completely convinced they're done.

Top 10 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Chock/Bates
Gilles/Poirier
Guignard/Fabbri
Fear/Gibson
Lajoie/Lagha
Reed/Ambrulevicius
Carreira/Ponomarenko
Lopareva/Brissaud
Turkkila/Versluis
Demougeot/Le Mercier

60 - 20 = 40

Top 24 in both World Standings & Season's Best guaranteed 1 each but I'm positive every single team on this list will get 2:
Green/Parsons
Taschlerova/Taschler
Lauriault/Le Gac
Lim/Quan
Mrazkova/Mrazek
Zingas/Kolesnik
Pate/Bye
Kazakova/Revia

40 - 16 = 24

Top 24 in Season's Best guaranteed 1 each:
Davis/Smolkin (12) >> likely 2
Brown/Brown (19) >> likely 2
Bratti/Somerville (21) >> likely 2
Komatsubara/Koleto (22) >> likely 2
Smart/Dieck (24) >> likely 1

24 - 9 = 15

Top 24 in World Standings guaranteed 1 each:
Pinchuk/Pogorielov (SB 42) >> likely 1
Janse van Rensburg/Steffan (SB 27) >> likely 1
Orihara/Pirinen (SB 26) >> likely 2
Neset/Markelov (SB 29) >> likely 2
Fradji/Forneaux (SB 55) - should remain junior IMO - if they do move up then this slightly messes with my projections - I would expect in that scenario that they're given the 2nd spot Neset/Markelov should get and then both the USFS and FFSG would give them host assignments so they have 2 in the end.

15 - 6 = 9

These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
SkAm - 1 - TBD - Flores/Desyatov and Wolfkostin/Tsarevski are likely to duke it out for their first GP assignment (or it will go to Neset/Markelov outright if they're moving up and the USFS can't wrangle 2 assignments elsewhere for them)
SCI - 1 - Fabbri/Ayer are SB 31 so I think they'll be assigned initially
GPdF - 2 - Dupayage/Nabais are 28 on the SB so I think they'll be assigned initially and the FFSG will let Lagouge/Caffa (SB 44) and Terreaux/Perron (SB 56) fight for it at French Masters (and possibly also Fradji/Forneaux if they elect to go senior)
NHK - 2 - JSF should assign Yoshida/Morita (SB 43) and Tanaka/Nishiyama (SB 51) on the initial assignments
GP Helsinki - 0
CoC - 3 - Chen/Xing (SB 50) should be assigned initially, and also possibly Shi/Wu (SB 75); 3rd spot will be TBD - I don't think the CFSA will give up their 3rd spot on the initial assignments list since they have some interesting teams that need more international experience

It pays to be from a host fed, that's all I gotta say.

 

[Cutting the Ice]

What happened to Fournier-Beaudry / Sorensen? I didn’t hear they would retire.

 

[skatingguy]

What happened to Fournier-Beaudry / Sorensen? I didn’t hear they would retire.

That's a very big question - nothing official at this point, but @Karen-W is taking into consideration their previously stated long term career goals - Olympics, Worlds at home - as well as recent allegations of sexual assault against Sorensen, and the questions that situation brings, and concluding that they will retire.

 

[Karen-W]

What happened to Fournier-Beaudry / Sorensen? I didn’t hear they would retire.

That's a very big question - nothing official at this point, but @Karen-W is taking into consideration their previously stated long term career goals - Olympics, Worlds at home - as well as recent allegations of sexual assault against Sorensen, and the questions that situation brings, and concluding that they will retire.

What @skatingguy said

 

[Rukia]

plus it's pretty clear lala has the momentum now

 

[Sylvia]

@Cutting the Ice, discussion on the topic is here, ICYMI: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...nsions-in-skating.105778/page-55#post-6579935

 

[Andrea82]

Neset/Markelov haven't said whether they're moving up. My updated WD calculations have them winding up at #22. Same goes for Fradji/Forneaux - my updated WS calculations have them winding up at #24, which would guarantee them both 1 GP. The big difference is NesMark are 29 on the SB and FraForn are 55 on the SB. I lean toward NesMark moving up but I'd tell FraForn to stay on the JGP another season.

Kudryavtseva/Karankevich have said they ARE moving up.

No word yet on Tkachenko/Kiliakov, Zehnder/Sieber or some of the other teams that have at least one more season of Jr eligibility.

At Junior Worlds, Fradji/Forneaux said they plan to do JGP next season and then some Senior Challengers.

Tali/LaFornara want to stay Junior and are waiting for rule changes regarding age eligibilities.