Rough prediction of 2024-25 GP spot allocation

[Vagabond]

Does the reigning World Silver Medalist still get to choose her Grand Prix events? If that rule still holds, the decision will be Levito's, not that of USFS.

 

[airgelaal]

Does the reigning World Silver Medalist still get to choose her Grand Prix events? If that rule still holds, the decision will be Levito's, not that of USFS.

She will choose after Sakamoto. and even silver doesn’t always leave much choice.

 

[Karen-W]

The US champion historically gets Skate America, so it would be Amber. I can see the SKAM lineup being something similar to Levito, Lee, Kaiser, Glenn, Petrokina, Stephchenko (if competing SR GP) or another Euro lady, Gutmann, Kim M. or Wi from Korea, and three of the 'weaker' Japanese ladies, Matsuike, Higuchi and Aoki, plus 1 TBD host spot.

One of the Japanese women will be either Chiba or Yoshida in all likelihood since they're in the "invited skaters" pool of the 7-12th place finishers from Worlds - unless the USFS can swing selecting Kaiser, Kurakova or You instead. I have a rough prediction of where I think all the skaters will wind up but it's on my personal laptop and I'm at work at the moment.

I think you're fairly close though in guessing the relative strength of the field.

I am crassly thinking of only getting butts in seats by suggesting Isabeau/Amber/Alyssa.

Those three aren't going to put butts in the seats at SkAm this year. Ilia will be the draw, for sure.

Does the reigning World Silver Medalist still get to choose her Grand Prix events? If that rule still holds, the decision will be Levito's, not that of USFS.

She will choose after Sakamoto. and even silver doesn’t always leave much choice.

Sakamoto, Levito and Chaeyeon Kim basically submit their preference for events and Sakamoto gets hers first, then Levito, then C Kim. Then the 4-6 skaters are handled in the same fashion. There is, though, usually some discussion and "agreement" between the host feds, especially when they have multiple skaters/teams in the top 6. I fully expect that Isabeau will get SkAm again this year. My gut says Kaori will select SCI and NHK, Isabeau will have SkAm and GP Helsinki, and Chaeyeon will get GPdF and CoC.

 

[SidelineSkater]

I had Glenn and Kaiser from the 7-12th place finishers in my 'fake lineup' predictions.

One of the Japanese women will be either Chiba or Yoshida in all likelihood since they're in the "invited skaters" pool of the 7-12th place finishers from Worlds - unless the USFS can swing selecting Kaiser, Kurakova or You instead. I have a rough prediction of where I think all the skaters will wind up but it's on my personal laptop and I'm at work at the moment.

 

[airgelaal]

Sakamoto, Levito and Chaeyeon Kim basically submit their preference for events and Sakamoto gets hers first, then Levito, then C Kim. Then the 4-6 skaters are handled in the same fashion. There is, though, usually some discussion and "agreement" between the host feds, especially when they have multiple skaters/teams in the top 6. I fully expect that Isabeau will get SkAm again this year. My gut says Kaori will select SCI and NHK, Isabeau will have SkAm and GP Helsinki, and Chaeyeon will get GPdF and CoC.

This season, for example, Sakamoto decided not to choose Japan. In 2012 Japan took home its silver and bronze medalists. Unexpected decisions also happen.

 

[Karen-W]

This season, for example, Sakamoto decided not to choose Japan. In 2012 Japan took home its silver and bronze medalists. Unexpected decisions also happen.

Yes, but NHK was also the last GP this season. I thought part of the rationale for not choosing NHK (Other than having done it many times in the past) was wanting a bit more prep time between her last GP event and the GPF. I suppose it is possible that she will choose GPdF and GP Helsinki but since France is hosting the GPF this year, I sort of am leaning toward her wanting SCI and NHK (choosing Helsinki again this year would be a repeat of her GP assignments from this season). Of course, she could just as easily decide on CoC since that's the easiest travel time for her if she does skip NHK again.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Amber, Isabeau, TBD- Everhardt, 3 from Japan but obviously not Kaori, Lee, Ye Lim Kim, Pinzarrone, Kaiser, Schizas or Riuter, Joos or Kurakova

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Does the reigning World Silver Medalist still get to choose her Grand Prix events? If that rule still holds, the decision will be Levito's, not that of USFS.

Usually ANL does all the deciding.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

My gut says Kaori will select SCI and NHK, Isabeau will have SkAm and GP Helsinki,

That’s how I have my selections as well

 

[Karen-W]

Amber, Isabeau, TBD- Everhardt, 3 from Japan but obviously not Kaori, Lee, Ye Lim Kim, Pinzarrone, Kaiser, Schizas or Riuter, Joos or Kurakova

My projected SkAm Women's field looks like this - Schild, Gubanova, Sarina Joos, Aoki, Matsuike, Sumiyoshi, Haein, Wi, Kurakova, Amber, Isabeau & USA TBD. The USFS likes Katia and I could see them inviting Schild (to give her a 2nd GP) in return for the FFSG inviting Bradie.

Can't see any Canadian woman being invited. Schizas and Ruiter will certainly be assigned to SCI. Schizas is the only one who can expect a 2nd GP and I can't see her doing back-to-back at SkAm and then SCI.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

My projected SkAm Women's field looks like this - Schild, Gubanova, Sarina Joos, Aoki, Matsuike, Sumiyoshi, Haein, Wi, Kurakova, Amber, Isabeau & USA TBD. The USFS likes Katia and I could see them inviting Schild (to give her a 2nd GP) in return for the FFSG inviting Bradie.

Can't see any Canadian woman being invited. Schizas and Ruiter will certainly be assigned to SCI. Schizas is the only one who can expect a 2nd GP and I can't see her doing back-to-back at SkAm and then SCI.

My Canadian entry was a last-minute switch out. they were not on my original skate America list until this morning.

 

[SidelineSkater]

Dance is going to be very tricky this season for GP slots. I copied off Karen-W's homework, but also did my own number crunching differently for World Standings.

60 dance spots (10 entries per 6 events)
Top 10 at worlds get two spots (60 spots - 20 worlds = 40)
8 teams on both SB and WS lists (40 spots - 16 spots = 24)

Here's where my math deviates.

Next, I'm subtracting the remaining host spots that aren't already used in the previous 36 slots.
(USA 2, CAN 2, FRA 2, JPN 3, FIN 1, CHN 3) = 13
13 host spots (24 - 13 = 11)

Top 24 SB list not already included in the above
Davis/Smolkin - 1 spot (see below, but they are roughly 32 on the WS list after the points update)
Brown/Brown - 1 spot (28 WS)
Bratti/Somerville - 1 spot (27 WS)
Komatsubara/Koleto - 2 spots (one from SB and one from NHK assignment host pick) (33 WS)
Smart/Dieck - 1 spot (31 WS)

5 spots from SB list (not including the K/K host spot) 11 - 5 = 6 spots remaining

Top 24 WS list (math might be fuzzy, but I think it's close)
17-Pinchuk/Pogorielov (SB 42)
18-Janse van Rensburg/Steffan (SB 27)
20-Neset/Markelov (SB 29)
22- Fradji/Forneaux (SB 55) noting they are unlikely to move up
23-Harris/Chan - (SB 30)
24-Orihara/Pirinen (SB 26)

5 spots from WS list (noting N/M, O/P are eligible and likely to get a host pick) 6 - 5 = 1 spot left for a team either assigned 1 or none!

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Do they go back to the SB list for the highest team with only 1 GP(Davis/Smolkin), or do they go to the next highest SB team with no events (Flores/Desyatov)? OR do they just do whatever the heck they want?

 

[kwanfan1818]

Did you all drop 2021/2022 and then factor 2022/2023 by 70%?

(When I tried this last year, I blew up my original spreadsheet, and then forgot to add the factoring back in .)

 

[Karen-W]

Did you all drop 2021/2022 and then factor 2022/2023 by 70%?

(When I tried this last year, I blew up my original spreadsheet, and then forgot to add the factoring back in .)

Yes, ma'am, lol. It's a royal pain to set the formula up again on my Excel spreadsheet but once I remember how I did it for the first discipline, it gets faster/easier to copy & paste everything, lol.

Top 24 SB list not already included in the above
Davis/Smolkin - 1 spot (see below, but they are roughly 32 on the WS list after the points update)
Brown/Brown - 1 spot (28 WS)
Bratti/Somerville - 1 spot (27 WS)
Komatsubara/Koleto - 2 spots (one from SB and one from NHK assignment host pick) (33 WS)
Smart/Dieck - 1 spot (31 WS)

5 spots from SB list (not including the K/K host spot) 11 - 5 = 6 spots remaining

Top 24 WS list (math might be fuzzy, but I think it's close)
17-Pinchuk/Pogorielov (SB 42)
18-Janse van Rensburg/Steffan (SB 27)
20-Neset/Markelov (SB 29)
22- Fradji/Forneaux (SB 55) noting they are unlikely to move up
23-Harris/Chan - (SB 30)
24-Orihara/Pirinen (SB 26)

5 spots from WS list (noting N/M, O/P are eligible and likely to get a host pick) 6 - 5 = 1 spot left for a team either assigned 1 or none!

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Do they go back to the SB list for the highest team with only 1 GP(Davis/Smolkin), or do they go to the next highest SB team with no events (Flores/Desyatov)? OR do they just do whatever the heck they want?

Are you forgetting that you already awarded Orihara/Pirinen a host spot in addition to their guaranteed 1 from the WS Top 24? I expect that one of the US teams you've got on either the SB or WS Top 24 will get one of the SkAM host spots you've held out from your list too.

 

[SidelineSkater]

Are you forgetting that you already awarded Orihara/Pirinen a host spot in addition to their guaranteed 1 from the WS Top 24? I expect that one of the US teams you've got on either the SB or WS Top 24 will get one of the SkAM host spots you've held out from your list too.

No ma'am. I knew that when I posted. I only had one Host Pick/Invite left for GP FIN.

And that's my point. There are 11 spots left with 10 on the SB/WS list.

Even with host picks for FIN and USA left, there's only 1 spot unaccounted for after all the guarantees. So one of B/S, B/B, N/M may get left out. Maybe the hope is one of them get a 2nd spot and the other two are SKAM host picks.

 

[wouldacoulda]

Also, I will not be one bit surprised if Uno calls it a career. He was dropping hints during the GP season, especially after NHK, but also after the GPF, that this could be his last season.

Maybe he’ll go the same route as Jason, and skip the GP.

 

[peibeck]

Those three aren't going to put butts in the seats at SkAm this year. Ilia will be the draw

I don't doubt Ilia will be a draw for all event ticket holders, but you know ladiezzzz is generally the hottest ticket to fill the rest of the seats here in the US. So the National champ facing the current and last US World medalists, plus add in the curiosity of the Alyssa "comeback" story angle... that's what generates some press (and ticket sales) in a non-Olympic year.

 

[DreamSkates]

Also, I will not be one bit surprised if Uno calls it a career. He was dropping hints during the GP season, especially after NHK, but also after the GPF, that this could be his last season.

I would be sad to not see him compete and how his artistry is top notch. Maybe he’ll try one more season after a very good season his year and winning at least the sp at Worlds.

 

[Karen-W]

Okay, time for my Men's GP Predictions! There are going to be a lot of happy guys, I think, who get 1 GP on the initial assignments list.

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Malinin
Kagiyama
Siao Him Fa
Uno*
Brown*
Britschgi
Vasiljevs
Miura
Memola
J Cha
A Selevko
Gorodnitsky
Egadze
Shaidorov

* - I expect that Uno will either retire or at least skip the GP next season (maybe try to take the Brown approach?) and Brown will skip the GP next season

72 - 24 = 48

Top 24 in both World Standings & Season's Best guaranteed 1 each but will get 2 each:
Sato
Rizzo
Yamamoto
Aymoz
Frangipani
Tomono
Jin

48 - 14 = 34

Top 24 in Season's Best guaranteed 1 each (my expectation is that they will all get 2 each):
Shimada
Chiu
Litvintsev

34 - 6 = 28

Top 24 in World Standings guaranteed 1 each:
Hagara (SB 37)
Yoshioka (SB 27)
Pitot (SB 43) - not sure if he's remaining junior or moving up - if he moves up, I think he'll get 1 and be in the mix with Le May for a GPdF host spot
Pulkinen (SB 31)

I know Pitot is further down the SB list than a lot of guys who are likely to get one but one of the assignments I expect him to get is GPdF, and Hagara is the reigning JWC/JGPF bronze medalist so I expect him to get 2 even though he's further down the SB list.

28 - 8 = 20

These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
SkAm - 2 host spots - Lots of guys vying for one of these spots - I think the USFS may give Martynov one of the spots on the initial list as a reward for making the JGPF last year and let the rest of the guys we have littering the SB 75 list fight for the final SkAm host spot.
SCI - 2 host spots - I expect one will be assigned to Sadovsky and the other will be TBD (Orzel or Rakic or some other unknown man)
GPdF - 1 host spot - Economides is SB 32, so he'll get one of these; the other spot will go to Pitot if he moves up to seniors (accounted for above). Right now, I have Pitot penciled in ahead of LeMay getting an initial assignment on the strength of Pitot's good JGP results this season.
NHK - 1 host spot - Tsuboi, Nakamura or Kataise will be fighting for this one.
GP Helsinki - 2 host spots - Virtanen and Suntsev.
COC - 2 host spots - Yudong Chen is SB 45 so I think he'll probably be assigned here on the initial list and the CFSA will save their 3rd spot for someone else (Dai?).

20 - 10 = 10

The theoretically 10 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list:
25 Torgashev
26 Juheon Lim
28 Gogolev
29 Carrillo
33 Hyeongyeom Kim
34 Samoilov
36 Reshtenko
38 M Selevko
39 Hiwatashi
41 Kapeikis

 

[Karen-W]

Maybe he’ll go the same route as Jason, and skip the GP.

I would be sad to not see him compete and how his artistry is top notch. Maybe he’ll try one more season after a very good season his year and winning at least the sp at Worlds.

LOL - you two were reading my mind as I was working on my Men's GP predictions. I do think that Uno could try the Brown approach and skip the GP.

 

[Stephanie]

Pitot is aging out of juniors (turned 19 in January) so he'll be in seniors: http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00107792.htm

ETA: Juheon Lim has the option of going back to the JGP (Korea has the maximum spots), although I hope he'll elect to challenge himself in seniors.

Hyeongyeom Kim can also go back to juniors but has stated that he plans to focus on seniors next season https://x.com/goldenskate/status/1771665569177014552?s=20

 

[Karen-W]

Pitot is aging out of juniors (turned 19 in January) so he'll be in seniors: http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00107792.htm

ETA: Juheon Lim has the option of going back to the JGP (Korea has the maximum spots), although I hope he'll elect to challenge himself in seniors.

Hyeongyeom Kim can also go back to juniors but has stated that he plans to focus on seniors next season https://x.com/goldenskate/status/1771665569177014552?s=20

Thanks, Stephanie! I think Hyeongyeom is making the right move focusing on seniors. And I agree that Juheon should focus on seniors. Sihyeong Lee's injury struggles this season have left a bit of a vacuum at the senior level for the Korean men and I think both Juheon and Hyeongyeom are ready to make the move up.

 

[Karen-W]

Well, we can take Komatsubara/Koleto off our ice dance projection lists. Japan only has 2 other senior level dance teams with TES mins for 4CCs/Worlds, so I think that opens up a space at NHK for another team. I had KoKo projected for a 2nd GP as Japan's national Champs and top-ranked dance team. I'll have to examine my projection chart in more detail in a bit to see who gets those two spots instead.

ETA - looked my list over and best bet... Smart/Dieck benefit and wind up with 2 assignments on the initial list. They were the only team in the SB Top 24 who didn't get 2 assignments when I made my first round of projections. The other team I think benefits is Flores/Desyatov who are SB 25 - they'll get 1 assignment (and this leaves the USFS in a good place to award the TBD host spot to Wolfkostin/Tsarevski who are SB 32).

I considered Janse van Rensburg/Steffan as possibly also picking up a 2nd assignment - they're WS 19/SB 27 but I suspect the USFS will swing 1 assignment for FlorDes (which also then gives the USA the max assignments - 18 - in ice dance).

 

[On My Own]

Jin really gets two huh?

 

[Karen-W]

Jin really gets two huh?

He is WS 21/SB 14 - I'd be shocked if he doesn't get two.

 

[On My Own]

He is WS 21/SB 14 - I'd be shocked if he doesn't get two.

Well I'll be happy for him. Whether he "should" keep going is a different issue, but I suppose he gets no choice on the matter.

 

[Karen-W]

And Kazakova/Revia have split - they were WS 23/SB 23 - guaranteed 1 GP, likely to have gotten 2. That opens up a couple more spots. My gut says the GP hosts issue 1 invitation each to Harris/Chan and Soucisse/Firus - both teams made the FD at Worlds and I can see them being given a GP before a team like Janse van Rensburg/Steffan (WS 19/SB 27) get a 2nd GP.

 

[Karen-W]

And Shoma Uno has announced his retirement, so that officially moves Nika Egadze into the 7-12th Invited Skater category and guarantees him 2 GPs next season.

 

[Debbie S]

And Shoma Uno has announced his retirement, so that officially moves Nika Egadze into the 7-12th Invited Skater category and guarantees him 2 GPs next season.

So Deniss is now seeded?

 

[Karen-W]

So Deniss is now seeded?

Yes, he moves into the Seeded 4-6 group.