Rough prediction of 2024-25 GP spot allocation

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Karen-W

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World Standings have had their season-end update in preparation for next season. This is usually a good indicator that the GP Host Commission will be meeting in the near future to hash out assignments. Crossing my fingers the GP assignments are released within the next few weeks!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797005298307088767
 
YukiNieve

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Sylvia said:
ISU World Standings updated of June 1, 2024:

Men: https://results.isu.org/ws/ws/wsmen.htm
Women: https://results.isu.org/ws/ws/wswomen.htm
Pairs: https://results.isu.org/ws/ws/wspairs.htm
Ice Dance: https://results.isu.org/ws/ws/wsdance.htm
Click to expand...
Thanks! Will these be used to allocate GPS assignments by considering them as the seeds (top 1-3, top 4-6 will not be doing the same comp), or will the results of the 2024 Worlds be used for that purpose? My memories are fading ... 😅
 
Sylvia

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YukiNieve said:
Thanks! Will these be used to allocate GPS assignments by considering them as the seeds (top 1-3, top 4-6 will not be doing the same comp)?
Click to expand...
The GP seeded skaters are based on 1-3 and 4-6 finishers at 2024 Worlds.

AnythingGOE's guide:
anythinggoe.com

A Guide to Grand Prix Assignments 2024/25

Grand Prix Assignments for the upcoming season will be released this June, and in the off-season, speculation is rife over which skaters and teams will be getting one or two spots (or maybe left out completely!). So let’s break it down a little…
anythinggoe.com
 
Karen-W

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YukiNieve said:
Thanks! Will these be used to allocate GPS assignments by considering them as the seeds (top 1-3, top 4-6 will not be doing the same comp), or will the results of the 2024 Worlds be used for that purpose? My memories are fading ... 😅
Click to expand...

Sylvia said:
The GP seeded skaters are based on 1-3 and 4-6 finishers at 2024 Worlds.

AnythingGOE's guide:
anythinggoe.com

A Guide to Grand Prix Assignments 2024/25

Grand Prix Assignments for the upcoming season will be released this June, and in the off-season, speculation is rife over which skaters and teams will be getting one or two spots (or maybe left out completely!). So let’s break it down a little…
anythinggoe.com
Click to expand...
Yes, but AnythingGOE's failed to note that the Men's #7 at Worlds will move up to seeded status due to Shoma's retirement, and #8 could also if Jason opts out of the GP again this season.
 
Sylvia

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Karen-W said:
Yes, but AnythingGOE's failed to note that the Men's #7 at Worlds will move up to seeded status due to Shoma's retirement, and #8 could also if Jason opts out of the GP again this season.
Click to expand...
AnythingGOE bolded who they thought would be the seeded skaters though it's possible Jason may decide to compete on the GP this fall:
  • Ilia Malinin (USA)
  • Yuma Kagiyama (Japan)
  • Adam Siao Him Fa (France)
  • *Shoma Uno (Japan) [retired]
  • *Jason Brown (USA) [likely won’t take part in the GP]
  • Lukas Britschgi (Switzerland)
  • Deniss Vasiljevs (Latvia)
  • Kao Miura (Japan)
    ...
Seeded skaters in bold.
 
Karen-W

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YukiNieve said:
Can top 3 skaters tell their wishes about where to compete?
Or top 6?
Click to expand...
The top 3 for sure get to put in their preferences for GP assignments with #1 getting first dibs and so on. I think the same is true of 4-6 but they aren't assigned until after 1-3 are assigned which ensures there will be a 1-3 and a 4-6 skater/team at every GP.
 
peibeck

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Sylvia said:
AnythingGOE bolded who they thought would be the seeded skaters though it's possible Jason may decide to compete on the GP this fall
Click to expand...

Any reason you think this might be the case, or is this just a general "anything's possible?"

I did consider he might choose to do the GP in the Olympic year, just for mileage, but I assumed he'd skip the GP again in Fall '24. 🤷‍♂️
 
Karen-W

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peibeck said:
Any reason you think this might be the case, or is this just a general "anything's possible?"

I did consider he might choose to do the GP in the Olympic year, just for mileage, but I assumed he'd skip the GP again in Fall '24. 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...
For me, at least, because he's already been working on his programs for next season, I feel like there's a chance he could decide to do the GP this fall. Of course, he could just decide to do a couple of Challengers instead if he wants to get some mileage on the programs without having to commit to the GP and GPF.
 
peibeck

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Karen-W said:
For me, at least, because he's already been working on his programs for next season, I feel like there's a chance he could decide to do the GP this fall. Of course, he could just decide to do a couple of Challengers instead if he wants to get some mileage on the programs without having to commit to the GP and GPF.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I knew he had selected programs for next season, but I didn't think that sounded out of the norm for most skaters. I guess we will know in a few weeks.
 
kwanfan1818

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Brown said somewhere, I believe after Nationals, that he knew he wasn't prepared, and that the plan would be different for this season. That may or may not include GP, but I'd expect his season to look different.

If 4-6 have their say, with Uno retired from eligible competition, he'd have first dibs among that group.
 
YukiNieve

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Karen-W said:
I think the same is true of 4-6 but they aren't assigned until after 1-3 are assigned which ensures there will be a 1-3 and a 4-6 skater/team at every GP.
Click to expand...
So each GPS comp will have one of the top 6 skaters? Has it been the case before?
 
kwanfan1818

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It's been the case for years, with just a few exceptions, that for all disciplines, each GP has one of the Top 3 and one of 4-6. For singles, each GP has one of 7-9 and one of 10-12. For Dance and Pairs, the GP's split 7-10. This is after all of the adjustments for skaters/teams who are not competing in GP for the season (skipping, split, retired, taking time off).

When there's an exception, it's because the host nation has chosen more than one from a group for host spots. When that happens, another Fed takes more from the group that the host group skipped.

What some skaters have said seems to confirm that the Top 3, in the order of the podium, get to choose or at least strongly influence the choice of their events, unless the host nation has someone from the same group. There's also speculation that the Top 4-6 do as well.
 
YukiNieve

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kwanfan1818 said:
It's been the case for years, with just a few exceptions, that for all disciplines, each GP has one of the Top 3 and one of 4-6. For singles, each GP has one of 7-9 and one of 10-12
Click to expand...
Thanks! So, for example, if Skate America has got one male single skater from Top 1-3, then it will not be likely to get a male skater from Top 4-6 since other 5 comps get one from either Top 1-3 or Top 4-6?
 
kwanfan1818

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No, it’s one from each group.

First they adjust the groups from Worlds to remove anyone who isn’t skating in the upcoming season, is skipping GP, is no longer eligible (ex: split couple switching countries and forced to sit out the Fall for any reason), or whose Fed doesn’t enter them for GP consideration. (Happened to both Sandhu and Sokolova when they would have been guaranteed spots.)

Then the hosts draw for the order in which they choose for each discipline, after host picks are assigned. I think maybe 2 or three times there have been exceptions where a host has chosen more than one from the same group, but it’s extremely rare and bad strategy except for ticket sales.

I’m not sure where returning skaters and split couples that aren’t chosen by the hosts fit into this, especially since they aren’t guaranteed anything.

The skaters in top 3 and (probably 4-6) get preferences in order of placement, but host nation picks overrule those. For example, Malinin could say that he wants SA and France, but the French Fed can laugh and assign Siao Him Fa to France, thus getting their Top 3 skater.

After every host has one of the Top 3, then they each get one of 4-6. If any of 4-6 is a host pick, then that host skips selecting in that round because they already have one from 4-6. They do the same for 7-9, then 10-12 for singles or 7-10 for Pairs and Dance.

Then they go through other groups that are guaranteed one (SB 24, WS 24). Hosts can choose to give anyone eligible two, as long as everyone guaranteed a spot gets their guaranteed spots. Mathematically it’s possible for there to be too few spots in Pairs due to the 18 host picks in a field of 8/GP but it would be a very, very, very long shot.

The irony is that, if 4-6 get their preferences, #4 might get both of their choices as top of their group, while #3 gets what #1 and #2 don’t want, unless one of those spots is a wanted host pick. Similarly, a host that chooses last has to take whoever is left over in a group, while the next host to pick gets their choice of any non host picks in the next group.
 
ice coverage

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YukiNieve said:
Thanks! So, for example, if Skate America has got one male single skater from Top 1-3, then it will not be likely to get a male skater from Top 4-6 since other 5 comps get one from either Top 1-3 or Top 4-6?
Click to expand...

The general idea is that each GP would have one man from Top 1-3 + one man from Top 4-6.
(Each man in Top 1-6 is entitled to two GP assignments, so a total of 12 assignments are divided among the six GPs.)

For example ...

Top men at 2023 Worlds:​
#1 Uno
#2 Cha
#3 Malinin
#4 Aymoz
#5 Brown (chose to skip 2023 GPs)
#6 Tomono
#7 Messing (retired before 2023 GPs)
#8 Britschgi​

2023 GP (original) assignments:​
Skate America: #3 Malinin + #4 Aymoz
Skate Canada: #2 Cha + #6 Tomono
GP France: #3 Malinin + #8 Britschgi
Cup of China: #1 Uno + #6 Tomono
GP Finland: #2 Cha (later withdrew) + #4 Aymoz
NHK: #1 Uno + #8 Britschgi​
 
vireo

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Yesterday on GS, gsk8 posted that the grand prix assignments would be announced today. If those in the know have those expectations, the prankster probably couldn't resist.
 
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