Grand Prix 2023-24 Season Potential Assignments

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Karen-W

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Bringing this into GSD from the preliminary talk in the Worlds sub-forum...

There are two events left which might give some skaters/teams World Standings incremental points. Thailand Open and Oceania International entries have already been published and there aren't enough senior men or women to earn points; Mexico Cup doesn't have any senior men entered, though it looks like there are 9 women based on the detailed schedule they posted on their IG account 3 days ago; and Hollins Trophy entries aren't due until May 12th (this event is scheduled to have all four disciplines). Having said that, there are only a handful of skaters or teams that could earn enough points to jump into the WS Top 24 and I can't see any of them wanting to bring back their 2022-23 programs in mid-June, so I think we're pretty close to set on the guaranteed GP entries at this point now that the SB lists have been updated post-WTT.

For men and women, 72 spots - I have a suspicion there are going to be a lot of single GP assignments in both disciplines for a variety of reasons which I'll explain further below.

MEN
20 spots - Worlds 1-12 - Uno, Cha, Malinin, Aymoz, Brown, Tomono, Messing, Britschgi, Rizzo, Siao Him Fa, Litvintsev, Grassl

4 spots - Worlds 13 & 14 (move up to fill the seeded spots vacated by Brown & Messing) - Vasiljevs, Shaidorov

12 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Sato, Miura, Yamamoto, Pulkinen, Egadze, S Lee

2 spots - Comeback Skater - Kagiyama

6 spots - Top 24 WS - Ma, Memola, Kvitelashvili, Levandi, M Selevko, Nordeback

4 spots - Top 24 SB - Shimada, Tsuboi, Frangipani, Kataise

1 spot - JWC Top 3 (not guaranteed, but reasonable expectation) - Yoshioka

Total - 49 spots allocated based on Worlds, WS, SB, Comeback and JWC results, which leaves 23 spots and here's where it gets really interesting. The host feds are going to do their best to guarantee as many spots for their skaters as they can.

2 spots JPN - Miyake (SB 47) & NHK TBD - Japan is in a tough spot here for their men with a maximum of 18 spots - Uno, Tomono, Sato, Miura, Yamamoto and Kagiyama are all but certain to take 12 of those spots, while Shimada, Tsuboi and Kataise will take another 3, and Yoshioka is aging out of juniors, so they're going to want to get him at least 1 assignment, which leaves just 2 spots. Miyake is the only other man they have in the SB Top 75, so my best guess is that they'll broker to get him an assignment and that leaves just their NHK TBD which will go to whichever guy with 1 assignment at the outset does the best in the earlier Challenger events or Japanese regional competitions.

2 spots FIN - Virtanen (SB 61) & Suntsev (Espoo host pick) - Suntsev is sitting at SB 83 and easily earned the GP minimum score, so I expect the Finnish fed to give him a host assignment.

4 spots CHN - Jin (SB 31) will get a 2nd assignment in addition to CoC; Chen (SB 59) will get a CoC assignment; and the initial assignments will have a CoC TBD host pick that could be picked up by someone else later.

1 spot FRA - Economides (SB 30) will get the GPdF 3rd French spot on the initial assignments list (other options are Pitot SB 51 will likely stay junior and LeMay SB 61).

7 spots CAN - 3 SCI spots (Orzel, Gogolev & Chiu?) and then they'll scramble to get 1 assignment each elsewhere for Orzel (SB 33), Sadovsky (SB 34), Gogolev (SB 38) and Chiu (SB 42). I think Chiu has a decent shot at a 2nd assignment based on his solid JWC finish and who knows which of Orzel, Sadovsky and Gogolev only wind up with 1 spot?

7 spots USA - Ma (WS 24/SB 37), Naumov (SB 32) and Torgashev (SB 54) I think will all wind up with 2 assignments on the initial list; while Kapeikis (SB 36) will get 1 initially. Part of me thinks that Torgashev is vulnerable to only getting 1 initially, but I think the USFS will do a bit of wheeling & dealing and ensure that he gets another spot in addition to SkAm as the current US bronze medalist. Kapeikis is a strong possibility to get a 2nd assignment with the SkAm TBD spot, but we all know the USFS likes to keep a host spot open on the initial go-round, plus they'll be hoping Kapeikis can pick up a 2nd assignment elsewhere.

Non-host fed skaters screwed on the Initial Assignments - Gorodnitsky (25), Yampolsky (35), Rossi (39), Broussard (40) - these last 3 are all still JGP eligible though.

WOMEN
24 spots - Worlds 1-12 - Sakamoto, H Lee, Hendrickx, Levito, Mihara, C Kim, Schott, Repond, Petrokina, Watanabe, Pinzarrone, Glenn

1 spot - Return Skater - Higuchi* (more on this below)

10 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Y Kim, Gubanova, Thorngren, Chiba, Kawabe

10 spots - Top 24 WS - Kurakova, You, Schizas, A Shin, Gutmann

2 spots - Top 24 WS - Shcherbakova (20) & Valieva (23)

8 spots - Top 24 SB - Yoshida, Tennell, Sumiyoshi, Wi

Total - 53-55 spots allocated, leaving 17-19 for the host feds to play around with...

2-3 spots JPN - Kihira (SB 25), Matsuike (SB 47) and NHK TBD - again, Japan is in a tough spot with 18 spots maximum - Sakamoto, Mihara, Watanabe, Chiba & Kawabe are all but guaranteed 10 of those spots and I can't see them not also garnering 2 for Yoshida & Sumiyoshi on the initial assignments list. Higuchi is only guaranteed 1 as a Return Skater (unlike Kagiyama in the Men who is guaranteed 2 by virtue of his Worlds 2nd place in 2022), and then there are the 2 other women they have in the SB Top 75 (well, three but Yokoi (SB 41) has retired). Matsuike could miss out on an initial assignment if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva. The NHK TBD spot will go to whomever shows up at the early fall Challengers & Japanese regional comps best prepared.

3 spots FIN - Jyrkinen (SB 46), Ceder (Espoo host pick) & ESPOO TBD - Ceder (SB 86) easily earned the GP minimum, as did Ounasvuori (SB 107), but with Peltonen having been injured most of the season, I expect the Finnish fed to hold off on naming their 3rd host spot pick on the initial assignments list, though, in the end, I fully expect them to use it.

3 spots CHN - An (SB 38) will get a 2nd spot in addition to her CoC assignment based on the strength of her JWC finish; and the initial assignments will have a CoC TBD host spot that could be picked up by a skater from another country. Are there any age-eligible Chinese women who could snag this plum assignment?

3 spots FRA - Schild (SB 40), Serna (SB 43) and Meite (SB 48) will be thrilled with their GPdF assignments and gladly sit on the Alternates List, hoping for a 2nd assignment.

2 spots CAN - Ruiter (SB 59) and SCI TBD - Daleman (SB 62), Dupuis (SB 63) & Miclette (SB 67) aren't high enough to get an initial assignment, and Ruiter's only going to get one (SCI host pick) because of her silver medal at Canadian Nats this year; and I also wouldn't bet on Daleman, Dupuis or Miclette getting the SCI TBD spot - my money would be on Bombardier if she does well in the early fall events.

4-5 spots USA - SkAm TBD plus 2 each for Andrews (SB 28) & Ziegler (SB 35). The other US women on the SB Top 75 are pretty far down and I can't see any of them getting an initial assignment - Harrell (SB 49), Hilmer (SB 53), Izzo (SB 54 - focusing on pairs), Gold (SB 55) & Seo (SB 58). Ziegler could wind up with 1 spot on the initial assignments if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva.

Non-host fed skaters screwed on the Initial Assignments - Ji (37) & Sarina Joos (39 - she's eligible for the JGP though).

Coming up next - Pairs & Dance :cool:
 
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Debbie S

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Is Seo definitely moving up to Senior GP? As for Gold, she is joining Johnny's new skating academy so I assume her retirement announcement will be coming soon.
 

Karen-W

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Is Seo definitely moving up to Senior GP? As for Gold, she is joining Johnny's new skating academy so I assume her retirement announcement will be coming soon.
I'm not sure what Seo's plans are, but, like Sarina Joos and the guys who are both Jr & Sr age-eligible, I'm not crossing her off the GP list until we start seeing JGP entry lists in a few months.
 

Karen-W

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PAIRS - 48 spots

A couple of notes about the Pairs SB list - there are only 64 teams total on the list, and the teams 47-below did not achieve the GP total score minimum, so they're not eligible for selection unless they belong to a host fed. Additionally, 9 of the teams between SB 25-46 have either split or will be competing on the JGP next season. Having said that, there are still plenty of teams to fill the 48 spots and any spots that open up due to injuries.

16 spots - Worlds 1-10 - Miura/Kihara, Knierim/Frazier, Conti/Macii, Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps, Chan/Howe, Pereira/Michaud, Pavlova/Sviatchenko, Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore, Hocke/Kunkel, Efimova/Blommaert

4 spots - Worlds 11 & 12 (move up to fill the seeded spots vacated by KniFraz & EfiBlom) - McIntosh/Mimar, Kam/O'Shea

16 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Ghilardi/Ambrosini, Danilova/Tsiba, Kovalev/Kovalev, Plazas/Fernandez, Osipova/Epstein, Roscher/Schuster, Caldara/Maglio, Laurin/Ethier

2 spots - Top 24 WS - Safina/Berulava, Valesi/Piazza, Metelkina/Parkman, Vouillamoz/Giniaux (27 - but will move up with the removal of SafBeru, EfiBlom & MetPark)

3 spots - Top 24 WS - Tarasova/Morozov (10), Mishina/Galliamov (17), Boikova/Kozlovskii (25 - but will move up with the removal of SafBeru, EfiBlom & MetPark)

2 spots - Top 24 SB - Smirnova/Siianytsia, Beccari/Guarise

Total - 40-43 spots allocated, leaving 5-8 for the host feds to play around with...

0 spots JPN - they don't have any pairs teams apart from MiuKih.

1 spot FIN - Vaananen/Clerici (Espoo host pick) - this will probably be listed as a ESPOO TBD spot initially and once Vaananen/Clerici get a chance to compete internationally, they'll be assigned.

2 spots CHN - Zhang/Yang (SB 29) will get one of the CoC host spots on the initial list and hope for a 2nd assignment later; Peng/Wang (CoC host pick) aren't eligible as a Comeback Couple because she achieved her Worlds Top 6 results with Jin, and they also aren't eligible for a Return Split Couple assignment because she didn't compete at Worlds 2022 or 2023. They're going to have to aim to win an early Challenger and get on the Alternates List that way.

1 spot FRA - Piegad/Strekalin (SB 40) will receive a GPdF host assignment and hope for a 2nd later.

0 spots CAN - With 4 teams already likely to get 2 assignments, I can't see Canada brokering a lone assignment for either Panetta/Thrasher (SB 43) or Alteryd/Farand (SB 46).

3 spots USA - SkAm TBD, Smirnova/Siianytsia (WS 28/SB 15) & McBeath/Bartholomay (SB 26). I expect SmirSiia to pick up a 2nd spot on the initial assignments, but they could miss out, as could McBBar if RUS is reinstated and spots need to be found for TarMor, MishGal & BoiKoz. The SkAm TBD spot will go to either SmirSiia (if they miss out on a 2nd spot on the initial assignments) or the Mokhovs (SB 28) in most all likelihood.

1 spot KOR - Cho/Adcock (SB 25 - yeah, yeah, WTT inflated scores, but still...) -
Like SmirSiia and McBBar, they'll be left waiting if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for TarMor, MishGal & BoiKoz. They might miss out anyway, if the FFSG brokers for a 2nd spot for VouGin on the initial assignments, but I don't think it'll happen since VouGin are 31 on the SB list.

Non-host fed teams screwed on the Initial Assignments - Beccari/Guarise (SB 23) probably deserve 2, but they're not going to get 2 on the initial list I don't think simply because there's just not a lot of spots to begin with.
 
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On My Own

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2 spots - Top 24 WS - Shcherbakova (20) & Valieva (23)
Matsuike could miss out on an initial assignment if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva.
Ziegler could wind up with 1 spot on the initial assignments if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva.
I expect SmirSiia to pick up a 2nd spot on the initial assignments, but they could miss out, as could McBBar if RUS is reinstated and spots need to be found for TarMor, MishGal & BoiKoz.
Like SmirSiia and McBBar, they'll be left waiting if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for TarMor, MishGal & BoiKoz. They might miss out anyway, if the FFSG brokers for a 2nd spot for VouGin on the initial assignments, but I don't think it'll happen since VouGin are 31 on the SB list.
Please stop jinxing it, I'll be blaming you if they do come back.
 

Karen-W

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ICE DANCE - 60 spots

I'm of two minds about likely GP assignments, mostly because we haven't heard any definitive plans for next season from Chock/Bates, Gilles/Poirier or Takahashi/Muramoto. What those teams do will greatly impact whether skaters sitting in the lower 30s on the SB list get an initial assignment or have to hope to be picked from the Alternates List. This first round of projections is going to operate on the assumption that all three teams will compete next season.

20 spots - Worlds 1-10 - Chock/Bates, Guignard/Fabbri, Gilles/Poirier, Fear/Gibson, Fournier Beaudry/Soerensen, Green Parsons, Reed/Ambrulevicius, Taschlerova/Taschler, Turkkila/Versluis, Carreira/Ponomarenko

1 spot - Return Split Couple - Smart/Dieck

16 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Lajoie/Lagha, Lopareva/Brissaud, Muramoto/Takahashi, Demougeot/Le Mercier, Hawayek/Baker, Kazakova/Revia, Lauriault/Le Gac, Lim/Quan

2 spots - Top 24 WS/JWC Top 3 - Bashynska/Beaumont

3 spots - Top 24 WS - Harris/Chan, Soucisse/Firus, Brown/Brown

1 spot - Top 24 WS - Sinitsina/Katsalapov

5 spots - Top 24 SB - Zingas/Kolesnik, Janse van Rensburg/Steffan, Pate/Bye, Bratti/Somerville, McNamara/Spiridonov

2 spots - JWC Top 3 - Mrazkova/Mrazek - not guaranteed, but I can't see them only getting 1 assignment while LimQuan and BashBeau get two, which I think is very likely.

Total - 49-50 spots allocated, leaving 10-11 for the host feds to dole out amongst themselves...

2 spots JPN - Komatsubara/Koleto (SB 38) & NHK TBD - In all likelihood, KoKo will wind up with the NHK host spot, but last season the JSF didn't give it to them on the initial assignments list and I don't think this season will be any different. Also, I think KoKo are the most likely to miss out if RUS is reinstated and a spot needs to be found for SinKats.

2 spots FIN - Orihara/Pirinen (SB 30) & ESPOO TBD - I expect the Finnish Fed will do the same as the JSF, CFSA & FFSG and hope for a 2nd assignment for OriPir at another GP, but ultimately, they'll probably wind up at Espoo.

3 spots CHN - Wang/Liu (SB 28), Chen/Xing (CoC host pick) & 1 CoC TBD spot - Wang/Liu are going to be in the same boat as KoKo and OriPir, probably skating at their home GP for their 2nd assignment; Chen/Xing don't have a SB due to the passport snafu that prevented them from competing at 4CCs and then not making the FD at Worlds, but I think, based on their Santa Claus Cup score that had they competed at Golden Spin or 4CCs they would be on the SB Top 75 list.

2 spots FRA - Dupayage/Nabais (SB 31) & GPdF TBD - see above scenarios for KoKo, OriPir, & WangLiu - assigned somewhere else and probably will wind up with the GPdF host spot if nothing else opens up for them. Meanwhile, Lagouge/Caffa (SB 44) & Terreaux/Perron (SB 51) will hope something materializes as Alternates, and Fradji/Forneaux (SB 46) will make the most of their final season on the JGP.

0 spots CAN - Unfortunately, I think Canada is going to be hoping teams like Fabbri/Ayer (SB 36), Lanaghan/Razgulajevs (SB 37), Gauthier/Thieren (SB 47), Hensen/Lickers (SB 49), and Bronsard/Richmond (SB 57) can snag a GP assignment from the Alternates list. There are too many teams guaranteed at least one spot ahead of them, even from host feds. Additionally, I believe Lewis/McMillan (SB 62) will skate on the JGP.

1 spot USA - SkAm TBD - this will be a dogfight between ZingKol, PateBye, BraSom, McNSpir, and the Browns, one of whom will be very lucky to wind up with 2 GP assignments as a result. Or, maybe Cesanek/Yehorov (SB 56) will come back strong and snag the spot - though I'm not sure they're even training right now based on Molly's IG posts being only school related at this time. Also Neset/Markelov (SB 41), Hauer/Starr (SB 53), & Carhart/Horovyi (SB 60) will stay on the JGP.

1 spot HUN - Ignateva/Szemko (SB 27) will probably get 1 spot on the initial assignments, but they might also wind up losing out if the JSF bargains for KoKo to get one instead should SinKats take a spot.

Non-host fed teams likely screwed on the Initial Assignments - Bekker/Hernandez (SB 35), which will be a real shame for them.

Also - if ChoBat, GilPoir and/or KanaDai decide to not compete next season, my expectation is that Bekker/Hernandez (SB 35), Fabbri/Ayer and Lanaghan/Razgulajevs would be the most likely teams to get an initial assignment, ahead of some of the other SB Top 75 host fed teams who would like a 2nd assignment (WangLiu, OriPir, DupNab, & KoKo).
 
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Karen-W

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LOL - Not gonna lie, if I had an inside track with YGA, I'd be telling them to at least consider entering some of their teams, especially the Mrazeks, at Hollins Trophy, even if it is in mid-June. The Mrazeks don't have any senior int'l WS points and only need 28 to surpass SinKats. KoKo don't have WS points from a 2nd sr int'l and they only need 162 points to move ahead of SinKats.

Seriously, someone needs to put a bug in the ears of both YGA and IAM - send the Mrazeks, Simova/Aksenov, Harris/Chan and KoKo to compete, pretty please?
 

Stephanie

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I'm not sure what Seo's plans are, but, like Sarina Joos and the guys who are both Jr & Sr age-eligible, I'm not crossing her off the GP list until we start seeing JGP entry lists in a few months.
On Clare Seo:


I agree it's unlikely that she'll get an initial GP given her season's best score ranking. I'll be happy to see her in Challengers and if she skates really well over the summer I would love to see her get the Skate America TBA.
 

Holy Headband

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Thanks for figuring this all out, @Karen-W! I really hope Bekker/Hernandez can get an least one GP assignment. It would be a real shame if they have to miss out in their first senior season (though Fear/Gibson did them a massive favour by at least securing them spots at the big championships).
 

Evgeniafan

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Question. For GP France, if only Adam gets a spot, does that mean they can choose Luc and either Francis or Lemay. Having Adam and Kevin at the same competition is not good for the GP final, one of them could knock the other one out.
 

Vagabond

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2 spots FIN - Orihara/Pirinen (SB 30) & ESPOO TBD - I expect the Finnish Fed will do the same as the JSF, CFSA & FFSG and hope for a 2nd assignment for OriPir at another GP, but ultimately, they'll probably wind up at Espoo.2 spots FIN - Orihara/Pirinen (SB 30) & ESPOO TBD - I expect the Finnish Fed will do the same as the JSF, CFSA & FFSG and hope for a 2nd assignment for OriPir at another GP, but ultimately, they'll probably wind up at Espoo.
Does Finland have three other Ice Dance couples with the minimum TES?

I would expect the Finnish Federation to assign them to Espoo in order to generate more of an audience.
 

Karen-W

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Question. For GP France, if only Adam gets a spot, does that mean they can choose Luc and either Francis or Lemay. Having Adam and Kevin at the same competition is not good for the GP final, one of them could knock the other one out.
The FFSG assigned both Adam & Kevin to GPdF last year, so I fully expect them to do the same this year. They're the ticket draw for the FFSG.

Does Finland have three other Ice Dance couples with the minimum TES?

I would expect the Finnish Federation to assign them to Espoo in order to generate more of an audience.
Host fed picks aren't required to have the GP total score min (it's a total score, not TES mins for the GP). I don't think there are any other Finnish dance teams, and it's entirely possible that the Finnish fed will pick Orihara/Pirinen for Espoo on the initial assignments, but that wouldn't change the overall available spots or the allocation of those spots.
 

kwanfan1818

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Question. For GP France, if only Adam gets a spot, does that mean they can choose Luc and either Francis or Lemay. Having Adam and Kevin at the same competition is not good for the GP final, one of them could knock the other one out.
Hosts can pretty much do what they please. For skaters guaranteed two, if they are part of a host nation, their own host doesn't have to choose them. Hosts also have in the past, albeit rarely, used their host privilege to choose two skaters from the same selection group for their host GP, although that's not an issue with Aymoz (4) and Fa (expected to be 8, without Messing or Brown). But the French Fed could choose neither of them, and they'd have to be assigned to other events.

Hosts can choose skaters who don't otherwise follow selection rules -- Top 75 on SB list, earn GP minimums -- although the ISU often pepper their documents with "recommendations", even using "strong" and "highly" to characterize them: these are toothless. The only rules that matter are the basic overall participation ISU requirements for international competition, like age, ability to compete for a country, etc.

Whether the French Fed would weigh Aymoz's or Fa's chances of making GPF if they competed against each other in the same event against their $$$ draw for the competition, is to be seen. (I'm assuming if there were rules, policies, precedents, points, ranking competitions, standings at prior nationals, the French Fed would ignore them.)
 

On My Own

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LOL - Not gonna lie, if I had an inside track with YGA, I'd be telling them to at least consider entering some of their teams, especially the Mrazeks, at Hollins Trophy, even if it is in mid-June. The Mrazeks don't have any senior int'l WS points and only need 28 to surpass SinKats. KoKo don't have WS points from a 2nd sr int'l and they only need 162 points to move ahead of SinKats.

Seriously, someone needs to put a bug in the ears of both YGA and IAM - send the Mrazeks, Simova/Aksenov, Harris/Chan and KoKo to compete, pretty please?
You should link your post in your twitter and instagram profile as a warning so more people participate in your campaign. Along with a video of Tarasova/Morozov's Candyman.
 

Karen-W

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You should link your post in your twitter and instagram profile as a warning so more people participate in your campaign. Along with a video of Tarasova/Morozov's Candyman.
Well, TarMor is pairs, not dance, and if we're hoping to ice SinKats out of the WS Top 24, linking TarMor's Candyman would be about as useful as that German media outlet using a pic of BoiKoz for their article about Germany bidding for 2027 Euros. ;)
 

On My Own

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Well, TarMor is pairs, not dance, and if we're hoping to ice SinKats out of the WS Top 24, linking TarMor's Candyman would be about as useful as that German media outlet using a pic of BoiKoz for their article about Germany bidding for 2027 Euros. ;)
Well you can add T/M for Pairs and Katsalapov's twizzles for dance.
 

Dobre

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Methinks it's more likely that China would invite Stepanova & Bukin without a guaranteed berth than that Sinitisina & Katsalapov would return to international competition with a guaranteed one, but we'll see. I suppose if the ISU bails on Russian accountability and it's a matter of skate or be drafted, Nikita could show up.
 

Karen-W

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Methinks it's more likely that China would invite Stepanova & Bukin without a guaranteed berth than that Sinitisina & Katsalapov would return to international competition with a guaranteed one, but we'll see. I suppose if the ISU bails on Russian accountability and it's a matter of skate or be drafted, Nikita could show up.
Oh, dang... I forgot about the Russian skaters/teams who have finished Top 6 at Worlds and are still competing - they're automatically eligible for 2 spots.

So, add in Kolyada, Trusova, Tuktamysheva, and SinKats to the lists. I really hope the ISU just upholds the ban and makes this far less messy than it already is.
 

On My Own

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Oh, dang... I forgot about the Russian skaters/teams who have finished Top 6 at Worlds and are still competing - they're automatically eligible for 2 spots.

So, add in Kolyada, Trusova, Tuktamysheva, and SinKats to the lists. I really hope the ISU just upholds the ban and makes this far less messy than it already is.
Oh god lol. No, I don't think they'll be quite so disgusting as to allow them in WITH the comeback rule in effect. But I also thought it was only for two seasons?
 

Karen-W

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Oh god lol. No, I don't think they'll be quite so disgusting as to allow them in WITH the comeback rule in effect. But I also thought it was only for two seasons?
Unfortunately, the Comeback rule is different than the Return Skater/Return Split Couple rule. The "Come-back" Skaters/Couples rule is as follows:
“Come-Back” Skaters/Couples: Skaters/Couples who were previously seeded (placed 1 to 6 within the past 10 years at a ISU World Figure Skating Championships) and subsequently did not participate in one or more competitive seasons will be given priority consideration to re-enter the ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating for selection of up to 2 assignments if they commit in writing to participating in two ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating events and if such return is announced and confirmed by the date of the annual Selection Meeting. Such so called “Come Back Skaters/Couples” will not substitute any of the Seeded Skaters/Couples, mentioned under a). “Come Back Skaters/Couples” must not fulfil the requirements of the minimum Grand Prix score and would be considered for selection as an Organizing ISU Member Choice. A come back under this clause is allowed only once in their competitive career for any Skater/Couple.

Now, this doesn't mean they're GUARANTEED any assignments, just that they "will be given priority", which is going to likely screw skaters like Torgashev, Gogolev, Ziegler, Shin, SmirSiia, KoKo, WangLiu, OriPir, DupNab, etc out of 2 spots on the initial assignments list.
 

Karen-W

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What a ridiculous rule. 10 years only make sense for World or Olympic Champions.
I could see it being allowed for World or Olympic medalists (minus the TE medalists), but even if that was the rule, it would only eliminate Kolyada and StepBuk.
 

On My Own

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I could see it being allowed for World or Olympic medalists (minus the TE medalists), but even if that was the rule, it would only eliminate Kolyada and StepBuk.
Well if you allow world medalists of past 10 years, it'll include Kolyada. But again, 10 years?!?! Only makes sense for world or Olympic champions to me, not just medalists.
 

Karen-W

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Well if you allow world medalists of past 10 years, it'll include Kolyada. But again, 10 years?!?! Only makes sense for world or Olympic champions to me, not just medalists.
Ahhh, I'd forgotten he won a Worlds medal. Maybe 10 years for the Champs and 5 years for silver & bronze?
 

AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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Bringing this into GSD from the preliminary talk in the Worlds sub-forum...

There are two events left which might give some skaters/teams World Standings incremental points. Thailand Open and Oceania International entries have already been published and there aren't enough senior men or women to earn points; Mexico Cup doesn't have any senior men entered, though it looks like there are 9 women based on the detailed schedule they posted on their IG account 3 days ago; and Hollins Trophy entries aren't due until May 12th (this event is scheduled to have all four disciplines). Having said that, there are only a handful of skaters or teams that could earn enough points to jump into the WS Top 24 and I can't see any of them wanting to bring back their 2022-23 programs in mid-June, so I think we're pretty close to set on the guaranteed GP entries at this point now that the SB lists have been updated post-WTT.

For men and women, 72 spots - I have a suspicion there are going to be a lot of single GP assignments in both disciplines for a variety of reasons which I'll explain further below.

MEN
20 spots - Worlds 1-12 - Uno, Cha, Malinin, Aymoz, Brown, Tomono, Messing, Britschgi, Rizzo, Siao Him Fa, Litvintsev, Grassl

4 spots - Worlds 13 & 14 (move up to fill the seeded spots vacated by Brown & Messing) - Vasiljevs, Shaidorov

12 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Sato, Miura, Yamamoto, Pulkinen, Egadze, S Lee

2 spots - Comeback Skater - Kagiyama

6 spots - Top 24 WS - Ma, Memola, Kvitelashvili, Levandi, M Selevko, Nordeback

4 spots - Top 24 SB - Shimada, Tsuboi, Frangipani, Kataise

1 spot - JWC Top 3 (not guaranteed, but reasonable expectation) - Yoshioka

Total - 49 spots allocated based on Worlds, WS, SB, Comeback and JWC results, which leaves 23 spots and here's where it gets really interesting. The host feds are going to do their best to guarantee as many spots for their skaters as they can.

2 spots JPN - Miyake (SB 47) & NHK TBD - Japan is in a tough spot here for their men with a maximum of 18 spots - Uno, Tomono, Sato, Miura, Yamamoto and Kagiyama are all but certain to take 12 of those spots, while Shimada, Tsuboi and Kataise will take another 3, and Yoshioka is aging out of juniors, so they're going to want to get him at least 1 assignment, which leaves just 2 spots. Miyake is the only other man they have in the SB Top 75, so my best guess is that they'll broker to get him an assignment and that leaves just their NHK TBD which will go to whichever guy with 1 assignment at the outset does the best in the earlier Challenger events or Japanese regional competitions.

2 spots FIN - Virtanen (SB 61) & Suntsev (Espoo host pick) - Suntsev is sitting at SB 83 and easily earned the GP minimum score, so I expect the Finnish fed to give him a host assignment.

4 spots CHN - Jin (SB 31) will get a 2nd assignment in addition to CoC; Chen (SB 59) will get a CoC assignment; and the initial assignments will have a CoC TBD host pick that could be picked up by someone else later.

1 spot FRA - Economides (SB 30) will get the GPdF 3rd French spot on the initial assignments list (other options are Pitot SB 51 will likely stay junior and LeMay SB 61).

7 spots CAN - 3 SCI spots (Orzel, Gogolev & Chiu?) and then they'll scramble to get 1 assignment each elsewhere for Orzel (SB 33), Sadovsky (SB 34), Gogolev (SB 38) and Chiu (SB 42). I think Chiu has a decent shot at a 2nd assignment based on his solid JWC finish and who knows which of Orzel, Sadovsky and Gogolev only wind up with 1 spot?

7 spots USA - Ma (WS 24/SB 37), Naumov (SB 32) and Torgashev (SB 54) I think will all wind up with 2 assignments on the initial list; while Kapeikis (SB 36) will get 1 initially. Part of me thinks that Torgashev is vulnerable to only getting 1 initially, but I think the USFS will do a bit of wheeling & dealing and ensure that he gets another spot in addition to SkAm as the current US bronze medalist. Kapeikis is a strong possibility to get a 2nd assignment with the SkAm TBD spot, but we all know the USFS likes to keep a host spot open on the initial go-round, plus they'll be hoping Kapeikis can pick up a 2nd assignment elsewhere.

Non-host fed skaters screwed on the Initial Assignments - Gorodnitsky (25), Yampolsky (35), Rossi (39), Broussard (40) - these last 3 are all still JGP eligible though.

WOMEN
24 spots - Worlds 1-12 - Sakamoto, H Lee, Hendrickx, Levito, Mihara, C Kim, Schott, Repond, Petrokina, Watanabe, Pinzarrone, Glenn

1 spot - Return Skater - Higuchi* (more on this below)

10 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Y Kim, Gubanova, Thorngren, Chiba, Kawabe

10 spots - Top 24 WS - Kurakova, You, Schizas, A Shin, Gutmann

2 spots - Top 24 WS - Shcherbakova (20) & Valieva (23)

8 spots - Top 24 SB - Yoshida, Tennell, Sumiyoshi, Wi

Total - 53-55 spots allocated, leaving 17-19 for the host feds to play around with...

2-3 spots JPN - Kihira (SB 25), Matsuike (SB 47) and NHK TBD - again, Japan is in a tough spot with 18 spots maximum - Sakamoto, Mihara, Watanabe, Chiba & Kawabe are all but guaranteed 10 of those spots and I can't see them not also garnering 2 for Yoshida & Sumiyoshi on the initial assignments list. Higuchi is only guaranteed 1 as a Return Skater (unlike Kagiyama in the Men who is guaranteed 2 by virtue of his Worlds 2nd place in 2022), and then there are the 2 other women they have in the SB Top 75 (well, three but Yokoi (SB 41) has retired). Matsuike could miss out on an initial assignment if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva. The NHK TBD spot will go to whomever shows up at the early fall Challengers & Japanese regional comps best prepared.

3 spots FIN - Jyrkinen (SB 46), Ceder (Espoo host pick) & ESPOO TBD - Ceder (SB 86) easily earned the GP minimum, as did Ounasvuori (SB 107), but with Peltonen having been injured most of the season, I expect the Finnish fed to hold off on naming their 3rd host spot pick on the initial assignments list, though, in the end, I fully expect them to use it.

3 spots CHN - An (SB 38) will get a 2nd spot in addition to her CoC assignment based on the strength of her JWC finish; and the initial assignments will have a CoC TBD host spot that could be picked up by a skater from another country. Are there any age-eligible Chinese women who could snag this plum assignment?

3 spots FRA - Schild (SB 40), Serna (SB 43) and Meite (SB 48) will be thrilled with their GPdF assignments and gladly sit on the Alternates List, hoping for a 2nd assignment.

2 spots CAN - Ruiter (SB 59) and SCI TBD - Daleman (SB 62), Dupuis (SB 63) & Miclette (SB 67) aren't high enough to get an initial assignment, and Ruiter's only going to get one (SCI host pick) because of her silver medal at Canadian Nats this year; and I also wouldn't bet on Daleman, Dupuis or Miclette getting the SCI TBD spot - my money would be on Bombardier if she does well in the early fall events.

4-5 spots USA - SkAm TBD plus 2 each for Andrews (SB 28) & Ziegler (SB 35). The other US women on the SB Top 75 are pretty far down and I can't see any of them getting an initial assignment - Harrell (SB 49), Hilmer (SB 53), Izzo (SB 54 - focusing on pairs), Gold (SB 55) & Seo (SB 58). Ziegler could wind up with 1 spot on the initial assignments if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva.

Non-host fed skaters screwed on the Initial Assignments - Ji (37) & Sarina Joos (39 - she's eligible for the JGP though).

Coming up next - Pairs & Dance :cool:

Holy moly this was a dedication and commitment to be appreciated. Thank you for doing this. by the way, do you happen to do internal accounting as well? 🥳
 

AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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OK, Karen, I’ve gone through all of these posts and even went back to reread everything in red, when are the assignments being announced? June like usual? And when do they determine if the Russian federation is participating?
 
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