Karen-W
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Bringing this into GSD from the preliminary talk in the Worlds sub-forum...
There are two events left which might give some skaters/teams World Standings incremental points. Thailand Open and Oceania International entries have already been published and there aren't enough senior men or women to earn points; Mexico Cup doesn't have any senior men entered, though it looks like there are 9 women based on the detailed schedule they posted on their IG account 3 days ago; and Hollins Trophy entries aren't due until May 12th (this event is scheduled to have all four disciplines). Having said that, there are only a handful of skaters or teams that could earn enough points to jump into the WS Top 24 and I can't see any of them wanting to bring back their 2022-23 programs in mid-June, so I think we're pretty close to set on the guaranteed GP entries at this point now that the SB lists have been updated post-WTT.
For men and women, 72 spots - I have a suspicion there are going to be a lot of single GP assignments in both disciplines for a variety of reasons which I'll explain further below.
MEN
20 spots - Worlds 1-12 - Uno, Cha, Malinin, Aymoz,Brown, Tomono, Messing, Britschgi, Rizzo, Siao Him Fa, Litvintsev, Grassl
4 spots - Worlds 13 & 14 (move up to fill the seeded spots vacated by Brown & Messing) - Vasiljevs, Shaidorov
12 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Sato, Miura, Yamamoto, Pulkinen, Egadze, S Lee
2 spots - Comeback Skater - Kagiyama
6 spots - Top 24 WS - Ma, Memola, Kvitelashvili, Levandi, M Selevko, Nordeback
4 spots - Top 24 SB - Shimada, Tsuboi, Frangipani, Kataise
1 spot - JWC Top 3 (not guaranteed, but reasonable expectation) - Yoshioka
Total - 49 spots allocated based on Worlds, WS, SB, Comeback and JWC results, which leaves 23 spots and here's where it gets really interesting. The host feds are going to do their best to guarantee as many spots for their skaters as they can.
2 spots JPN - Miyake (SB 47) & NHK TBD - Japan is in a tough spot here for their men with a maximum of 18 spots - Uno, Tomono, Sato, Miura, Yamamoto and Kagiyama are all but certain to take 12 of those spots, while Shimada, Tsuboi and Kataise will take another 3, and Yoshioka is aging out of juniors, so they're going to want to get him at least 1 assignment, which leaves just 2 spots. Miyake is the only other man they have in the SB Top 75, so my best guess is that they'll broker to get him an assignment and that leaves just their NHK TBD which will go to whichever guy with 1 assignment at the outset does the best in the earlier Challenger events or Japanese regional competitions.
2 spots FIN - Virtanen (SB 61) & Suntsev (Espoo host pick) - Suntsev is sitting at SB 83 and easily earned the GP minimum score, so I expect the Finnish fed to give him a host assignment.
4 spots CHN - Jin (SB 31) will get a 2nd assignment in addition to CoC; Chen (SB 59) will get a CoC assignment; and the initial assignments will have a CoC TBD host pick that could be picked up by someone else later.
1 spot FRA - Economides (SB 30) will get the GPdF 3rd French spot on the initial assignments list (other options are Pitot SB 51 will likely stay junior and LeMay SB 61).
7 spots CAN - 3 SCI spots (Orzel, Gogolev & Chiu?) and then they'll scramble to get 1 assignment each elsewhere for Orzel (SB 33), Sadovsky (SB 34), Gogolev (SB 38) and Chiu (SB 42). I think Chiu has a decent shot at a 2nd assignment based on his solid JWC finish and who knows which of Orzel, Sadovsky and Gogolev only wind up with 1 spot?
7 spots USA - Ma (WS 24/SB 37), Naumov (SB 32) and Torgashev (SB 54) I think will all wind up with 2 assignments on the initial list; while Kapeikis (SB 36) will get 1 initially. Part of me thinks that Torgashev is vulnerable to only getting 1 initially, but I think the USFS will do a bit of wheeling & dealing and ensure that he gets another spot in addition to SkAm as the current US bronze medalist. Kapeikis is a strong possibility to get a 2nd assignment with the SkAm TBD spot, but we all know the USFS likes to keep a host spot open on the initial go-round, plus they'll be hoping Kapeikis can pick up a 2nd assignment elsewhere.
Non-host fed skaters screwed on the Initial Assignments - Gorodnitsky (25), Yampolsky (35), Rossi (39), Broussard (40) - these last 3 are all still JGP eligible though.
WOMEN
24 spots - Worlds 1-12 - Sakamoto, H Lee, Hendrickx, Levito, Mihara, C Kim, Schott, Repond, Petrokina, Watanabe, Pinzarrone, Glenn
1 spot - Return Skater - Higuchi* (more on this below)
10 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Y Kim, Gubanova, Thorngren, Chiba, Kawabe
10 spots - Top 24 WS - Kurakova, You, Schizas, A Shin, Gutmann
2 spots - Top 24 WS - Shcherbakova (20) & Valieva (23)
8 spots - Top 24 SB - Yoshida, Tennell, Sumiyoshi, Wi
Total - 53-55 spots allocated, leaving 17-19 for the host feds to play around with...
2-3 spots JPN - Kihira (SB 25), Matsuike (SB 47) and NHK TBD - again, Japan is in a tough spot with 18 spots maximum - Sakamoto, Mihara, Watanabe, Chiba & Kawabe are all but guaranteed 10 of those spots and I can't see them not also garnering 2 for Yoshida & Sumiyoshi on the initial assignments list. Higuchi is only guaranteed 1 as a Return Skater (unlike Kagiyama in the Men who is guaranteed 2 by virtue of his Worlds 2nd place in 2022), and then there are the 2 other women they have in the SB Top 75 (well, three but Yokoi (SB 41) has retired). Matsuike could miss out on an initial assignment if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva. The NHK TBD spot will go to whomever shows up at the early fall Challengers & Japanese regional comps best prepared.
3 spots FIN - Jyrkinen (SB 46), Ceder (Espoo host pick) & ESPOO TBD - Ceder (SB 86) easily earned the GP minimum, as did Ounasvuori (SB 107), but with Peltonen having been injured most of the season, I expect the Finnish fed to hold off on naming their 3rd host spot pick on the initial assignments list, though, in the end, I fully expect them to use it.
3 spots CHN - An (SB 38) will get a 2nd spot in addition to her CoC assignment based on the strength of her JWC finish; and the initial assignments will have a CoC TBD host spot that could be picked up by a skater from another country. Are there any age-eligible Chinese women who could snag this plum assignment?
3 spots FRA - Schild (SB 40), Serna (SB 43) and Meite (SB 48) will be thrilled with their GPdF assignments and gladly sit on the Alternates List, hoping for a 2nd assignment.
2 spots CAN - Ruiter (SB 59) and SCI TBD - Daleman (SB 62), Dupuis (SB 63) & Miclette (SB 67) aren't high enough to get an initial assignment, and Ruiter's only going to get one (SCI host pick) because of her silver medal at Canadian Nats this year; and I also wouldn't bet on Daleman, Dupuis or Miclette getting the SCI TBD spot - my money would be on Bombardier if she does well in the early fall events.
4-5 spots USA - SkAm TBD plus 2 each for Andrews (SB 28) & Ziegler (SB 35). The other US women on the SB Top 75 are pretty far down and I can't see any of them getting an initial assignment - Harrell (SB 49), Hilmer (SB 53), Izzo (SB 54 - focusing on pairs), Gold (SB 55) & Seo (SB 58). Ziegler could wind up with 1 spot on the initial assignments if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva.
Non-host fed skaters screwed on the Initial Assignments - Ji (37) & Sarina Joos (39 - she's eligible for the JGP though).
Coming up next - Pairs & Dance
There are two events left which might give some skaters/teams World Standings incremental points. Thailand Open and Oceania International entries have already been published and there aren't enough senior men or women to earn points; Mexico Cup doesn't have any senior men entered, though it looks like there are 9 women based on the detailed schedule they posted on their IG account 3 days ago; and Hollins Trophy entries aren't due until May 12th (this event is scheduled to have all four disciplines). Having said that, there are only a handful of skaters or teams that could earn enough points to jump into the WS Top 24 and I can't see any of them wanting to bring back their 2022-23 programs in mid-June, so I think we're pretty close to set on the guaranteed GP entries at this point now that the SB lists have been updated post-WTT.
For men and women, 72 spots - I have a suspicion there are going to be a lot of single GP assignments in both disciplines for a variety of reasons which I'll explain further below.
MEN
20 spots - Worlds 1-12 - Uno, Cha, Malinin, Aymoz,
4 spots - Worlds 13 & 14 (move up to fill the seeded spots vacated by Brown & Messing) - Vasiljevs, Shaidorov
12 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Sato, Miura, Yamamoto, Pulkinen, Egadze, S Lee
2 spots - Comeback Skater - Kagiyama
6 spots - Top 24 WS - Ma, Memola, Kvitelashvili, Levandi, M Selevko, Nordeback
4 spots - Top 24 SB - Shimada, Tsuboi, Frangipani, Kataise
1 spot - JWC Top 3 (not guaranteed, but reasonable expectation) - Yoshioka
Total - 49 spots allocated based on Worlds, WS, SB, Comeback and JWC results, which leaves 23 spots and here's where it gets really interesting. The host feds are going to do their best to guarantee as many spots for their skaters as they can.
2 spots JPN - Miyake (SB 47) & NHK TBD - Japan is in a tough spot here for their men with a maximum of 18 spots - Uno, Tomono, Sato, Miura, Yamamoto and Kagiyama are all but certain to take 12 of those spots, while Shimada, Tsuboi and Kataise will take another 3, and Yoshioka is aging out of juniors, so they're going to want to get him at least 1 assignment, which leaves just 2 spots. Miyake is the only other man they have in the SB Top 75, so my best guess is that they'll broker to get him an assignment and that leaves just their NHK TBD which will go to whichever guy with 1 assignment at the outset does the best in the earlier Challenger events or Japanese regional competitions.
2 spots FIN - Virtanen (SB 61) & Suntsev (Espoo host pick) - Suntsev is sitting at SB 83 and easily earned the GP minimum score, so I expect the Finnish fed to give him a host assignment.
4 spots CHN - Jin (SB 31) will get a 2nd assignment in addition to CoC; Chen (SB 59) will get a CoC assignment; and the initial assignments will have a CoC TBD host pick that could be picked up by someone else later.
1 spot FRA - Economides (SB 30) will get the GPdF 3rd French spot on the initial assignments list (other options are Pitot SB 51 will likely stay junior and LeMay SB 61).
7 spots CAN - 3 SCI spots (Orzel, Gogolev & Chiu?) and then they'll scramble to get 1 assignment each elsewhere for Orzel (SB 33), Sadovsky (SB 34), Gogolev (SB 38) and Chiu (SB 42). I think Chiu has a decent shot at a 2nd assignment based on his solid JWC finish and who knows which of Orzel, Sadovsky and Gogolev only wind up with 1 spot?
7 spots USA - Ma (WS 24/SB 37), Naumov (SB 32) and Torgashev (SB 54) I think will all wind up with 2 assignments on the initial list; while Kapeikis (SB 36) will get 1 initially. Part of me thinks that Torgashev is vulnerable to only getting 1 initially, but I think the USFS will do a bit of wheeling & dealing and ensure that he gets another spot in addition to SkAm as the current US bronze medalist. Kapeikis is a strong possibility to get a 2nd assignment with the SkAm TBD spot, but we all know the USFS likes to keep a host spot open on the initial go-round, plus they'll be hoping Kapeikis can pick up a 2nd assignment elsewhere.
Non-host fed skaters screwed on the Initial Assignments - Gorodnitsky (25), Yampolsky (35), Rossi (39), Broussard (40) - these last 3 are all still JGP eligible though.
WOMEN
24 spots - Worlds 1-12 - Sakamoto, H Lee, Hendrickx, Levito, Mihara, C Kim, Schott, Repond, Petrokina, Watanabe, Pinzarrone, Glenn
1 spot - Return Skater - Higuchi* (more on this below)
10 spots - Top 24 World Standings & Top 24 Season's Best - Y Kim, Gubanova, Thorngren, Chiba, Kawabe
10 spots - Top 24 WS - Kurakova, You, Schizas, A Shin, Gutmann
2 spots - Top 24 WS - Shcherbakova (20) & Valieva (23)
8 spots - Top 24 SB - Yoshida, Tennell, Sumiyoshi, Wi
Total - 53-55 spots allocated, leaving 17-19 for the host feds to play around with...
2-3 spots JPN - Kihira (SB 25), Matsuike (SB 47) and NHK TBD - again, Japan is in a tough spot with 18 spots maximum - Sakamoto, Mihara, Watanabe, Chiba & Kawabe are all but guaranteed 10 of those spots and I can't see them not also garnering 2 for Yoshida & Sumiyoshi on the initial assignments list. Higuchi is only guaranteed 1 as a Return Skater (unlike Kagiyama in the Men who is guaranteed 2 by virtue of his Worlds 2nd place in 2022), and then there are the 2 other women they have in the SB Top 75 (well, three but Yokoi (SB 41) has retired). Matsuike could miss out on an initial assignment if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva. The NHK TBD spot will go to whomever shows up at the early fall Challengers & Japanese regional comps best prepared.
3 spots FIN - Jyrkinen (SB 46), Ceder (Espoo host pick) & ESPOO TBD - Ceder (SB 86) easily earned the GP minimum, as did Ounasvuori (SB 107), but with Peltonen having been injured most of the season, I expect the Finnish fed to hold off on naming their 3rd host spot pick on the initial assignments list, though, in the end, I fully expect them to use it.
3 spots CHN - An (SB 38) will get a 2nd spot in addition to her CoC assignment based on the strength of her JWC finish; and the initial assignments will have a CoC TBD host spot that could be picked up by a skater from another country. Are there any age-eligible Chinese women who could snag this plum assignment?
3 spots FRA - Schild (SB 40), Serna (SB 43) and Meite (SB 48) will be thrilled with their GPdF assignments and gladly sit on the Alternates List, hoping for a 2nd assignment.
2 spots CAN - Ruiter (SB 59) and SCI TBD - Daleman (SB 62), Dupuis (SB 63) & Miclette (SB 67) aren't high enough to get an initial assignment, and Ruiter's only going to get one (SCI host pick) because of her silver medal at Canadian Nats this year; and I also wouldn't bet on Daleman, Dupuis or Miclette getting the SCI TBD spot - my money would be on Bombardier if she does well in the early fall events.
4-5 spots USA - SkAm TBD plus 2 each for Andrews (SB 28) & Ziegler (SB 35). The other US women on the SB Top 75 are pretty far down and I can't see any of them getting an initial assignment - Harrell (SB 49), Hilmer (SB 53), Izzo (SB 54 - focusing on pairs), Gold (SB 55) & Seo (SB 58). Ziegler could wind up with 1 spot on the initial assignments if RUS is reinstated and spots have to be found for Shcherbakova & Valieva.
Non-host fed skaters screwed on the Initial Assignments - Ji (37) & Sarina Joos (39 - she's eligible for the JGP though).
Coming up next - Pairs & Dance
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