U.S. Ladies [#24]: Starr-Ting Order/Detailed Classification

[Sylvia]

Sierra Venetta, 18, won the U.S. Novice Ladies bronze medal back in 2016 and her longtime coach in the SF Bay area was Grete Castaneda who passed away last year. I remember Sierra's name as being someone who was supported by the Michael Weiss Foundation as a young skater.

Rena Ikenishi, 18, was born in Tokyo and competed in Regionals in Japan until 2015. She recently graduated from a private high school on Long Island, NY - link to her profile there: https://www.waldorfhs.org/journey-profile/rena-ikenishi/

This will be the Senior debut at Nationals for both. Hope this helps a little, @doglover123.

 

[aftershocks]

I agree with the pick of Ashley and Polina over Mirai in 2014 and don't disagree with not picking Jeremy over Ross in 2011 or Ashley over Karen in 2018. The latter outcomes were sooo predictable.

Ashley vs Karen in 2017 at U.S. Nats was a toss-up; in 2018, Karen deserved to be in fourth behind Angela Wang in the sp (especially if it was so necessary to put the more experienced Ash behind Angela). As well, Jason Brown actually deserved to be in fourth place behind Grant Hochstein in the 2018 sp. That Jason and Karen were put in third place positions over skaters who performed better than them in the sp tells us exactly who U.S. fed was hoping to send to the Games. In the fp at 2018 U.S. Nats, Karen did not perform as if she was actually prepared and hungry to make the Olympic team. After the fp, U.S. fed threw Karen another bone in their rush to phase-out Ashley Wagner, who skated a decent fp to La La Land, a program that in retrospect, Ash should have kept and honed throughout the season. But when you are reeling from burnout, self-doubt and mild depression, sh*t happens.

Combined with her overall career accomplishments and name recognition, I think Ashley did enough in the fp to be given better PCS credit and the Swan Song dibs for an Olympic spot. U.S. fed felt differently for a variety of reasons including the fact they had bloomin' Tennell & 3-axel wieldin' Nagasu, plus they were hoping to groom inconsistent but talented K-Chen. The biggest reason for the dis though is that U.S. fed were down on Ash and disinclined to show her a vote of confidence and respect for carrying the U.S. ladies discipline on her back for at least 6 or 7 seasons. But again, alls well that ends well. The darkest hour comes before the glory of the dawn, and all that.

Ashley over Mirai was really Polina over Mirai masquerading as Ashley over Mirai. Lots of fans and even some coaches disagreed with Mirai being dumped on. At 2014 U.S. Nationals, debatably Mirai should have placed second overall anyway, not third. Mirai was the only one of the top 4 U.S. ladies to stay on her feet in the fp. Alls well that ends well though, as the unfair outcome toughened Mirai's resolve and ultimately culminated in her working with Tom Z. Mirai's crowning glory was in achieving something at the 2018 Olympics that only a handful of international women have ever accomplished. Your U.S. men's reference, I will take to U.S. men's thread.

 

[VGThuy]

I agree with the pick of Ashley and Polina over Mirai in 2014 and don't disagree with not picking Jeremy over Ross in 2011 or Ashley over Karen in 2018. The latter outcomes were sooo predictable.

I think if 2017 Worlds did not go down the way it did with Karen Chen placing 4th to Ashley's 7th which most people did not really expect going into 2017 Worlds as Ashley was the reigning silver medalist and Karen came from a 12th place finish at 4CC and a so-so GP series where she placed like 6th and 7th compared to Ashley's 1st and 6th place, then they may have passed Karen over. I think that 4th place finish at Worlds in a tough competition with some tough judging made the USFS feel like taking the risk. No risk, no reward right? Also, she was the third pick, not the first or second, so I guess USFS thought at least two of the three would perform well. Mirai did perform well in the team competition and had a skate for the ages and placed higher than expected (with SK/K) to give us points that we lost with Nathan Chen's SP bomb. Bradie skated cleanly in the team competition as well. For some reason in the individuals, they couldn't be close to repeating their skates. Karen's cracks showed at the Olympics. Maybe it would have been better for her longterm if she didn't compete but maybe she needed that experience to do better going forward. Time will tell.

Or...the USFS just went by nationals rankings this time as none of the ladies in contention had a record going into 2018 Nationals that was much better than the other ones using the relevant criteria so they took the easy route and just said we will go be how they finished.

The judges were responsible for placing Karen 3rd to Ashley's 4th given the PCS boost Karen got compared to Ashley's more reserved PCS scoring (I don't think that scoring was unfair though given the quality of their skates in both the SP and LP) but the callers arguably ignored some of Ashley's borderline rotation calls (I think they were arguable) while calling so many of Karen's (deservedly) to make it as close as it was. I guess it evened out a bit with the judges and callers "fighting".

I know people think Ashley could have had an amazing skate, but keep in mind that because she didn't skate at the Olympics and Worlds, it's easy to say she would have skated better or placed much higher when we don't really know. Ashley may have been on an upward trajectory but maybe Nationals was a temporary upswing. You never know, and it's not like Ashley was guaranteed to have all her jumps credited and get the necessary TES either. Her track record does indicate that she most likely would have placed higher than the three American girls who went to Pyeongchang, but it's not like she would have guaranteed a medaled. Top 6 is questionable.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

The system that I would prefer most is that the US National Champion is automatically on the Worlds Team.

And the rest of the team is 50% Nationals and 50% Body of work from the season. (or even 25% / 75%)

I like seeing Season Body of Work emphasized A LOT more than getting the bronze at Nats and bombing everything else internationally on your plate the last 4 months.

 

[aftershocks]

Or...the USFS just went by nationals rankings this time as none of the ladies in contention had a record going into 2018 Nationals that was much better than the other ones using the relevant criteria so they took the easy route and just said we will go be how they finished.

Eh, but there's reason to question the order of finish though, because Ash was dumped on PCS-wise, unfairly and uncharacteristically. Ash skated a good and entertaining fp to La La Land, which U.S. fed and some other haters had not expected.

 

[Coco]

In the end, the push didn't do Karen any favors It seemed to add pressure.

 

[VGThuy]

Eh, but there's reason to question the order of finish though, because Ash was dumped on PCS-wise, unfairly and uncharacteristically. Ash skated a good and entertaining fp to La La Land, which U.S. fed and some other haters had not expected.

I acknowledged that. However, the USFS is not on monolithic entity. I'm sure if we look at the scoring some judges would have had Ashley ahead of Karen. Plus the callers were not giving Karen any breaks whatsoever and they are also part of USFS.

Either way, with the way the season was going both skaters were risky selections and had issues that interfered with their prep. Even Raf said Ashley had issues with motivation for a whole season and a half. Ashley most likely would not have bombed the way Karen did, but it was a risk and for better or worse they went with strictly by Nationals results as both of their records were comparable going in. Had Ashley medaled at 2017 Worlds and/or made the GPF and if Karen placed in Ashley's place at 2017 Worlds and had the same season she had after, then Ashley most likely would have been sent over Karen even if she placed 4th to Karen's 3rd.

The only one who looked like she could give a solid, consistent if not exciting skate was Bradie Tennell and we saw what happened in the individual Ladies event.

 

[aftershocks]

I know people think Ashley could have had an amazing skate, but keep in mind that because she didn't skate at the Olympics and Worlds, it's easy to say she would have skated better or placed much higher when we don't really know.

One never knows, do one? -- Fats Waller #Ain't Misbehavin' (Stormy Weather, 1943)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSNPpssruFY It never really grows old
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in1eK3x1PBI last line
It ain't over till the fat guy sings. And that' why we watch.

 

[GullyGirl84]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BdmWD_9Bftg/

I couldn't remember the specifics for the judges that put Karen over Ashley at nationals last year, so I pulled out the Skating Protocol's instagram on this to refresh my memory. I'm sure for someone like Ashley who really put effort into improving her PCs over the years, to see others (especially someone new like Bradie) get higher PCs over her really stung. However, I feel like the judges do like Karen when she skates well, as evidenced by her 2017 worlds scores. I know that Ashley brought up in the mixed zone that it was specifically the PCs scores that she was questioning, but then she also said that she "left one jump on the table" and that others' underrotations should be looked at-maybe this was before she saw Karen's protocol, or maybe she was talking about Mirai. Of course, it was also in the moment so I'm not sure that I can fault her instantaneous reaction, though I wish she would have skated in the gala. I would have liked to see her at the olympics, but I'm also not sure that the public understands figure skating enough to distinguish between a 6-10 place finish.

 

[aftershocks]

^^ Cool p.r. positioning hindsight scenario to excuse the overall scoring and team selection. The judges squeezed Ash on PCS, uncharacteristically, which also contributed to the placement outcome. Adam Rippon popped two jumps unexpectedly in his 2018 U.S. Nats fp, which hurt his overall score and podium placement, but not his deserved team selection. Ouch, 'body of work,' ouch. Ahem...

the callers were not giving Karen any breaks whatsoever...

In my view, Karen got some breaks by even being in third after the sp at 2018 U.S. Nats. And Karen also got breaks in the fp scoring. Talented K-Chen failed to capitalize upon U.S. fed's vote of confidence in her though, what with her boot problems and self-doubts she'd unfortunately been dealing with all season long. Surprisingly and disappointingly, K-Chen consistently underperformed after expectations in her abilities were running high post-2017 Worlds.

But yeah, there's always tomorrow...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yop62wQH498 The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow #ILoveYaTomorrow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm0nopK1BQM Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow

 

[GullyGirl84]

Even if Karen never skates again-being a national champion, being an olympian, and getting that 4th place finish at worlds is not a bad resume at all. Likewise, Ashley won't be remembered for how she did at nationals in 2018, but for being the top US women skater for a decade and breaking the medal drought at worlds. And soon we will have new nationals scoring to pick apart for years!

 

[Sylvia]

The system that I would prefer most is that the US National Champion is automatically on the Worlds Team.

This selection criterion used to be in the rulebook but no longer is.

@her grace posted a breakdown of likely Worlds selection criteria earlier in this thread (before the withdrawals of Wang and Lin): https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...ed-classification.104857/page-19#post-5499926

USFS' standard procedure is to publish the selection criteria for Worlds/4CC/Junior Worlds at the beginning of each season (in the Members Only section of their website) so that the skaters and coaches all know the criteria ahead of time.

 

[Debbie S]

I'm an Ashley fan, but haven't we rehashed last year's Nats enough? Can we focus on the ladies competing this year, please?

 

[Tinami Amori]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BdmWD_9Bftg/

I couldn't remember the specifics for the judges that put Karen over Ashley at nationals last year, so I pulled out the Skating Protocol's instagram on this to refresh my memory. I'm sure for someone like Ashley who really put effort into improving her PCs over the years, to see others (especially someone new like Bradie) get higher PCs over her really stung. However, I feel like the judges do like Karen when she skates well, as evidenced by her 2017 worlds scores. I know that Ashley brought up in the mixed zone that it was specifically the PCs scores that she was questioning, but then she also said that she "left one jump on the table" and that others' underrotations should be looked at-maybe this was before she saw Karen's protocol, or maybe she was talking about Mirai. Of course, it was also in the moment so I'm not sure that I can fault her instantaneous reaction, though I wish she would have skated in the gala. I would have liked to see her at the olympics, but I'm also not sure that the public understands figure skating enough to distinguish between a 6-10 place finish.

I understood this phrase (in a nut shell) as following: "my PCs scores are too low (in Ashley's opinion) but if i did that jump i would have still placed third."

 

[GullyGirl84]

I understood this phrase (in a nut shell) as following: "my PCs scores are too low (in Ashley's opinion) but if i did that jump i would have still placed third."

Yes, Ashley was talking about the pop...but she also had the second jump that she had a bad landing on and underrotated/two footed, so it wasn't like that was the only mistake in an otherwise clean performance. She just thought that the PCs boost would be enough this time.

 

[Tinami Amori]

She just thought that the PCs boost would be enough this time.

Well, Wagner often thinks of "her stuff" to be "deserving of more", not just in skating. That should not be a reason for judging her performances and points she earns, but Olympics is also an international platform, and given her track record of "opening her mouth", there is not guarantee that if she did not like her scores at the Olympics or did not like something else, she would not have caused an "international uproar" by insulting someone.

 

[aftershocks]

I'm an Ashley fan, but haven't we rehashed last year's Nats enough? Can we focus on the ladies competing this year, please?

Thread drift and rehash are common occurrences on FSU. Try holding back flood waters, or going with the flow.

If peeps are still rehashing and referencing U.S. men 2011 and U.S. ladies 2014, well... Heck some fans are still rehashing, re-living and re-scoring various and sundry Olympics results, including 1996 ladies, 1998 ladies, 2002 ladies, 2002 pairs, 2014 ladies, 1980 ladies, etc. Even Janet Lynn's star-crossed career at Worlds in the early 1970s is sometimes rehashed, albeit more rarely these days. Lynn's debated and confusing to a tv audience scoring results, are in part the reason why we have short programs, which a lot of young fans don't realize or know the history behind.

 

[Debbie S]

There are other threads/sections of this board where people can rehash results. This thread is supposed to be about discussing the U.S. ladies who are competing this season. Perhaps those who want to keep discussing Ashley vs Karen at Nats last year could start a thread for that purpose?

 

[aftershocks]

The only one who looked like she could give a solid, consistent if not exciting skate was Bradie Tennell and we saw what happened in the individual Ladies event.

Eh, Bradie skated first in the sp individual event at the Olympics. She didn't exactly fall apart either, after making uncharacteristic opening jump error. Chalk it up to a learning experience, even if untimely, re the necessity to learn how to manage nerves.

(before the withdrawals of Wang and Lin)

Probably because of all the ubiquitous and uncontrollable rehash in this thread, I must have missed when it was reported that Angela Wang has withdrawn. I haven't been able to find the previous reference. Could you help with a link or reference source. Thanks.

 

[Sylvia]

... I must have missed when it was reported that Angela Wang has withdrawn. I haven't been able to find the previous reference. Could you help with a link or reference source. Thanks.

https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...ed-classification.104857/page-24#post-5501539

 

[aftershocks]

She's never had that undeniable skate yet.

Sure Courtney has had 'undeniable' performances, just unfortunately not consistently enough nor back-to-back convincingly enough in the same event, or string of events.

My favorite Courtney Hicks sp from 2015 U.S. Nationals:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2cuwFZs9rM Code Name Vivaldi

Now that is undeniably blazing talent that needs to be honed, channeled, mastered and believed in, consistently.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Eh, Bradie skated first in the sp individual event at the Olympics.

Does anyone remember in 98 when Maria Butyrskaya drew first in the SP in Nagano?

Bonus: The SP music was "Fever."

White costume with fringe on the skirt.

It amazes me I cant remember if I finished off the bag of peanut butter cups this morning in bed but I can remember that sh*t!

 

[Finsta]

People need accept Karen skated better and deserved her chance. The talk was Ashley thought she would get the PCS even with mediocre skating. She did not expect other girls to outskate her. Sorry some feel Ashley should have higher PCS. Judges disagree. I Like Ashley. But she did not deserve Olympics on name alone.

 

[Erin]

Had Ashley medaled at 2017 Worlds and/or made the GPF and if Karen placed in Ashley's place at 2017 Worlds and had the same season she had after, then Ashley most likely would have been sent over Karen even if she placed 4th to Karen's 3rd.

I think it's highly unlikely that Ashley would have been put on the team without finishing in the top 3 in 2018, given that she had already been given the benefit of the doubt in 2014.

 

[Coco]

If we're getting specific, she beat Karen on the technical side. Slim margin, but better, to use your word.

 

[haribobo]

This Karen vs. Ashley discussion is almost as randomly timed as my Mark Mitchell vs. Todd vs. Scott Davis discussion upthread. For the love of Erin Pearl, let's get this thing back on track!

 

[VGThuy]

Sorry for participating in the thread drift. I just think Karen gets beaten up a lot for "taking Ashley's spot" and being perceived as being a favored skater by the USFS and used as a "tool" to punish Ashley who is often said around here to be the USFS's favorite victim. I think I'm quick to respond because it's clear Ashley has way more fans to bring this up and Karen doesn't have 1/10 the fans Ashley does on the boards to advocate for her. And it's easier to beat up on Karen after her Olympic skate, her controversy with the boot company, and her being unprepared and MIA this season. It's a very "see I told you so" type of posts that triggers me to reply. Why I feel the need to advocate for Karen? I don't know. That's a me problem. IMO, Karen isn't given credit for a skate at 2018 Nationals that was arguably deservedly placed ahead of Ashley despite Ashley having fans saying otherwise. Not saying they're wrong, but I don't think the final Nationals result was unreasonable at all given the skates both provided or that Ashley gave a slam dunk skate over Karen. I think either one placing ahead of the other can be considered reasonable and it was just one of those calls.

 

[haribobo]

I 100% agree, Viet. Karen's spins and speed are very strong, people overlook that and just say, Ashley was robbed but don't really have a technical way to back up that argument.

 

[all_empty]

Yeah, I'm over Wagner.

And without Chen's placement at 2017 Worlds there would only be two spots in Pyeongchang.

Reading all these threads about Hicks made me revisit her performances this season.

I couldn't find her NHK performance online, but I looked at the protocol and she had most +GOEs on most of her elements. And she got level 4 on all her spins and step sequences.

Watching her FS from the Classic, it's actually not bad. You can see a real effort at improving carriage and line. Smart using an ina bauer instead of spiral. If she can skate clean she's definitely a medal threat. I think the key is nailing that short program combo. It's been her nemesis for years.

I liked her Maleficent and Vivaldi shorts. I found the costumes effective too -- made her look longer and taller. Good luck to all the competitors.

I predict a "new" name will sneak into the top 6, along with Tennell, Bell, Cui, Liu and Hicks.

 

[Erin]

I predict a "new" name will sneak into the top 6, along with Tennell, Bell, Cui, Liu and Hicks.

I don’t know if those will be the other five, but I agree there will be at least one new name and it may be higher than people think. US Nationals always has surprises.