U.S. Ladies [#24]: Starr-Ting Order/Detailed Classification

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Carolla5501 said:
Isn't there a statue of limitations on whining "my favorite skater was robbed"
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Lol, absolutely not! 21 years later I'm still arguing that had Michelle skated after Tara in 1998 she'd have won :soapbox::lol:

I did an entire post on my blog last year about the results of nationals and concluded that Ashley was dumped on but with good reason. She'd been unmotivated and blah all season and then tried to turn it on in the 11th hour only to have it backfire. Karen didn't skate much better (similar mistakes in both programs) but she was younger, more naturally talented and despite the clusterf**k that was her season up until that point, it was clear she'd been trying to get herself together. It could have gone either way and the judges went with Karen. Bygones...

We're about a week out from the big event starting. I'm excited! Despite the fact we have a very good idea of who will be sent to worlds, I'm really interested to see who will step up. There's a lot of raw talent in the US ranks but very few of them can put it together. This year almost feels like 2008--just about all of the previous quads holdovers are gone and the field feels fresher and newer.

I don't know why but I honestly feel like Alysa Liu may win here. I'm not saying I want that to happen (I don't) but given the fact she's not age eligible for senior worlds, the USFSA can position her well heading into the JGP next year by being the national champ and we still get to send Bradie and Mariah to senior worlds.

Just putting it out there. I hope I'm wrong but if I'm right I have proof I predicted it.:D
 
kwanatic said:
I don't know why but I honestly feel like Alysa Liu may win here. I'm not saying I want that to happen (I don't) but given the fact she's not age eligible for senior worlds, the USFSA can position her well heading into the JGP next year by being the national champ and we still get to send Bradie and Mariah to senior worlds.

Just putting it out there. I hope I'm wrong but if I'm right I have proof I predicted it.:D
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I've been having that feeling for a while too. I'm totally expecting NBC to hype the crap out of her too.
 
I think the judging from last year (trying to support a younger skater with more talent) could inform how judging works this season.
 
wickedwitch said:
I think the judging from last year (trying to support a younger skater with more talent) could inform how judging works this season.
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The truth of the matter is in skating years Bradie is well into adulthood (20) and Mariah is middle aged approaching old (22). Bradie will be 24 and Mariah will be 25 by the time Beijing rolls around. Considering most skaters retire or are left behind by 25 years old there's a good chance one or both of them may not compete through to 2022. Of course there's no guarantee Alysa will make it to 2022 either but if she does, she'll be 16 which means she could possibly compete to 2026 and beyond.

The USFSA just needs to find a good balance between supporting the talent they have now and nurturing the future talent as well. Too often they drop their current talent as soon as something newer with more triples shows up. I don't want to see that happen this year...but I won't be surprised if it does.
 
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kwanatic said:
The truth of the matter is in skating years Bradie is well into adulthood (20) and Mariah is middle aged approaching old (22). Bradie will be 24 and Mariah will be 25 by the time Beijing rolls around. Considering most skaters retire or are left behind by 25 years old there's a good chance one or both of them may not compete through to 2022. Of course there's no guarantee Alysa will make it to 2022 either but if she does, she'll be 16 which means she could possibly compete to 2026 and beyond.

The USFSA just needs to find a good balance between supporting the talent they have now and nurturing the future talent as well. Too often they drop their current talent as soon as something newer with more triples shows up. I don't want to see that happen this year...but I won't be surprised if it does.
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Agreed. For various reasons, not one of the three skaters on the Sochi Olympic Team went to PyeongChang.

Unless either Bradie or Mariah can maintain (or add to) their skills, who knows what will happen three years from now.
 
kwanatic said:
The truth of the matter is in skating years Bradie is well into adulthood (20) and Mariah is middle aged approaching old (22). Bradie will be 24 and Mariah will be 25 by the time Beijing rolls around. Considering most skaters retire or are left behind by 25 years old there's a good chance one or both of them may not compete through to 2022. Of course there's no guarantee Alysa will make it to 2022 either but if she does, she'll be 16.

The USFSA just needs to find a good balance between supporting the talent they have now and nurturing the future talent as well. Too often they drop their current talent as soon as something newer with more triples shows up. I don't want to see that happen this year...but I won't be surprised if it does.
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Sure. But I would hope that skaters are judged for what they put on the ice. If international assignments or even funding is done based on other criteria, that's acceptable (assuming that criteria has been communicated to the skaters). But the scores of the competition should be about the skating during that competition. And too often at national level competitions, it's about the skaters the fed/judges want to promote.
 
wickedwitch said:
Sure. But I would hope that skaters are judged for what they put on the ice. If international assignments or even funding is done based on other criteria, that's acceptable (assuming that criteria has been communicated to the skaters). But the scores of the competition should be about the skating during that competition. And too often at national level competitions, it's about the skaters the fed/judges want to promote.
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I think you have detailed why incorporating the Body of Work component into choosing a world team scares me.

Do you pick the skater who has come prepared and does well now, or the champion who skated well three or four months ago, but is struggling.

Argh. Skating is such a crap shoot at times.
 
To me, it's why the 3rd spot is so critical, even if your country's skaters haven't warranted 3 spots in the early season.

You can use any mixture of results for the first two spots, so skaters are motivated to compete well throughout the season, and then formally give preference to young up and coming talented skaters who have also competed well in the previous 12 months.

The scoring at Nationals needs to be based on what happens on the ice, not on skaters' potential or whatever.

I think if you let too many factors outside of competition results play a role in the decision of your entire world team, you lose credibility as a sport and risk alienating entire generations of parents, frankly.

But carving out that 3rd spot for some teenager who has shown themselves worthy of getting a chance at worlds, well I would think that would make sense to anyone who follows this sport.
 
Coco said:
To me, it's why the 3rd spot is so critical, even if your country's skaters haven't warranted 3 spots in the early season.

You can use any mixture of results for the first two spots, so skaters are motivated to compete well throughout the season, and then formally give preference to young up and coming talented skaters who have also competed well in the previous 12 months.

The scoring at Nationals needs to be based on what happens on the ice, not on skaters' potential or whatever.

I think if you let too many factors outside of competition results play a role in the decision of your entire world team, you lose credibility as a sport and risk alienating entire generations of parents, frankly.

But carving out that 3rd spot for some teenager who has shown themselves worthy of getting a chance at worlds, well I would think that would make sense to anyone who follows this sport.
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Sadly, Team USA doesn't have a third spot this season. It'll be down to two skaters earning the magic thirteen in Saitama. That might be possible, but there are 3 from Russia, 3 from Japan, and potentially one from Italy, one from Belgium, and one from Korea to consider in the mix as well.
 
essence_of_soy said:
Sadly, Team USA doesn't have a third spot this season. It'll be down to two skaters earning the magic thirteen in Saitama. That might be possible, but there are 3 from Russia, 3 from Japan, and potentially one from Italy, one from Belgium, and one from Korea to consider in the mix as well.
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Yep and one Canadian too, right? I think Gabby is competing at nationals. I'd assume if she wins she may represent Canada at worlds. She struggled this season before stepping away so there's no telling what kind of shape she's in.

Still, even without Gabby in the mix it's going to be tough. The two US skaters will have to rely on others to make mistakes but also capitalize on any mistakes there are by skating clean.
 
kwanatic said:
Lol, absolutely not! 21 years later I'm still arguing that had Michelle skated after Tara in 1998 she'd have won :soapbox::lol:

I did an entire post on my blog last year about the results of nationals and concluded that Ashley was dumped on but with good reason. She'd been unmotivated and blah all season and then tried to turn it on in the 11th hour only to have it backfire. Karen didn't skate much better (similar mistakes in both programs) but she was younger, more naturally talented and despite the clusterf**k that was her season up until that point, it was clear she'd been trying to get herself together. It could have gone either way and the judges went with Karen. Bygones...

We're about a week out from the big event starting. I'm excited! Despite the fact we have a very good idea of who will be sent to worlds, I'm really interested to see who will step up. There's a lot of raw talent in the US ranks but very few of them can put it together. This year almost feels like 2008--just about all of the previous quads holdovers are gone and the field feels fresher and newer.

I don't know why but I honestly feel like Alysa Liu may win here. I'm not saying I want that to happen (I don't) but given the fact she's not age eligible for senior worlds, the USFSA can position her well heading into the JGP next year by being the national champ and we still get to send Bradie and Mariah to senior worlds.

Just putting it out there. I hope I'm wrong but if I'm right I have proof I predicted it.:D
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She's also not even age eligible for junior worlds, either.
 
carriecmu0503 said:
She's also not even age eligible for junior worlds, either.
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Are you sure? I thought she is 13 years old already... as of this August 2018. She seems to be age eligible to start skating Fall 2019...

"The ISU guidelines for junior eligibility have varied throughout the years – currently, skaters must be at least 13 years old but not yet 19 before the previous 1 July."
 
Tinami Amori said:
Are you sure? I thought she is 13 years old already... as of this August 2018. She seems to be age eligible to start skating Fall 2019...

"The ISU guidelines for junior eligibility have varied throughout the years – currently, skaters must be at least 13 years old but not yet 19 before the previous 1 July."
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She's not age-eligible because she turned 13 in August and not before the previous 1st of July.
 
VIETgrlTerifa said:
She's not age-eligible because she turned 13 in August and not before the previous 1st of July.
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Ok... when she turned 13 this past August, it was too late for 2018/2019 season (fall JGP events, and JR worlds 2019). But then she turns 14 in August 2019, and then new season starts Fall 2019/Winter 2020, and she should be eligible, so it seems..
 
Tinami Amori said:
Ok... when she turned 13 this past August, it was too late for 2018/2019 season (fall JGP events, and JR worlds 2019). But then she turns 14 in August 2019, and then new season starts Fall 2019/Winter 2020, and she should be eligible, so it seems..
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Yes, Alysa will be eligible for JGP/JW next season. She will be eligible for Senior Worlds and Olys starting in the fall of 2021.
 
Tinami Amori said:
Ok... when she turned 13 this past August, it was too late for 2018/2019 season (fall JGP events, and JR worlds 2019). But then she turns 14 in August 2019, and then new season starts Fall 2019/Winter 2020, and she should be eligible, so it seems..
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Yes, she will be eligible for junior international competition next season. Her first year of senior eligibility will be the next Olympic season.
 
aftershocks said:
Pwetty princess-mode in general in figure skating is very outdated, and also something of a myth or a trope or an illusion, IMO.
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I disagree. I think it's still very alive and well - not to say that the mode works really well for a lot of female skaters.

Relatively few skaters have even taken advantage of the opportunity to wear pants rather than dresses. Those who do usually wear cat suits.

The number of skaters who have broken the mold or forged new territory in terms of programs are even fewer. Perkova's 'Pirates of the Caribbean' routine - skated in knee length baggy pants - and the skater who did an ACDC routine last season (Annette Toth IIRC, probably sp?) are exceptions.

Of course, change can be slow to happen. Many female skaters likely prefer tinkly piano music and princessy dresses, because their role models dressed that way and skated those kinds of programs.

It's possible that some lady skaters coming up through juniors are exploring programs that are non-traditional for ladies. I don't follow juniors that closely, so don't know.
 
kwanatic said:
This year almost feels like 2008--just about all of the previous quads holdovers are gone and the field feels fresher and newer.
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What a great Nationals that was! We had Nagasu, Zhang, Flatt, and Wagner. All of them had difficult triple-triples at the time and seemed poised to compete with Asada, Kim, etc. on technical elements/jumps. Remember Wagner did a nice 3lutz-3loop in the short. IIRC she landed the combination again the long, although with an underrotation. Then these ladies ran into consistency issues, growth spurts, the consequences of bad jumping habits, injuries, etc. and the US field collapsed like a souffle internationally over the next 5 years or so. It's great that Wagner and Nagasu rebounded, with Wagner making it near the top as well.

kwanatic said:
Yep and one Canadian too, right? I think Gabby is competing at nationals. I'd assume if she wins she may represent Canada at worlds. She struggled this season before stepping away so there's no telling what kind of shape she's in.

Still, even without Gabby in the mix it's going to be tough. The two US skaters will have to rely on others to make mistakes but also capitalize on any mistakes there are by skating clean.
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There's also Tursynbaeva.

I think Bradie and Mariah skating two strong programs could place 6th/7th or 5th/8th possibly. If they skate well, they'll plausibly outscore clean/near-clean Tursynbaeva, Lim, Hendrickx, and maybe one Russian. I'd estimate Bradie has a 50% chance of skating two great programs (scoring 205+) and Mariah has a 25% skating two great programs (scoring 200+), so my super rough estimate of this happening is 12.5%.
 
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