2018 US Olympic, World, 4CC and Junior Worlds selections

taf2002 said:
yes, Jason has a better bow but that really doesn't matter here. As long as chen & Zhou are there it really doesn't matter who #3 is. if one of these 2 is the one to drop out ross has as good a chance as adam or Jason to hold the US up in the team comp - all 3 can be headcases at times & all 3 have the ability to be brilliant at times. since they bumped ross off the oly team they could at the very least made him 1st alternate for either the olys or worlds, if not both. They act like the fate of the nation is in this decision. It's not. the US men (except Chen) are just not that good.
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According to the USFS president, Ross wasn’t selected because althougn he does well at Nationals he generally does not do well internationally. All you have to do is look at his ISU scores and results and compare them to the others to know he’s right.
 
Tavi said:
According to the USFS president, Ross wasn’t selected because althougn he does well at Nationals he generally does not do well internationally. All you have to do is look at his ISU scores and results and compare them to the others to know he’s right.
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that still doesn't matter at the olys. in 1998 Tara & Michelle came in 1 & 2. was anyone bent out of shape that Nicole came in something like 28th? it does matter at worlds where they are earning spots. But if ross went to the olys & bombed what would it matter? does anyone in the world think adam has a shot at the podium? but 2nd alternate is kind of a slap in the face.
 
taf2002 said:
that still doesn't matter at the olys. in 1998 Tara & Michelle came in 1 & 2. was anyone bent out of shape that Nicole came in something like 28th? it does matter at worlds where they are earning spots. But if ross went to the olys & bombed what would it matter? does anyone in the world think adam has a shot at the podium? but 2nd alternate is kind of a slap in the face.
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It doesn’t matter for the individual events. But for the team event the whole team matters because you don’t know who might get ill or injured. Sure, maybe no one does. But if they need someone to take over, say, because Nathan can’t do the SP, they need someone who can reliably hit in the SP and score well, because if he doesn’t, the US might not make it to the FS. Ross’s highest international SP score is 85.36 but that’s from 2015; his highest this season is about 71. Jason’s highest is 94, from last season, but he has scored 89-91 in 3 comps this season (he was about 83 in his Sr B). Adam has done almost as well, but Vincent regularly has very low SP scores (70s) despite his quads. Given that only top 5 qualify and Kolyada, Shoma/Yuzu, Boyang, Chan, all regularly score 90-105+ in SP, using someone who doesn’t have a history of scoring at least 88-90 could mean we lose our medal chances. There are obviously lots of different scenarios, but my guess is that these are the kinds of things they’re thinking about in the selection process. JMO.
 
barbk said:
...And they probably remember Ryan Bradley, who had a similar standout Nationals.
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Incidentally Ross also broke through at that Nationals (2011) and edged out Jeremy for the world team based on Nationals results alone (by fractions of a point). The 2011 team lost the men's 3rd spot at that Worlds.

I think the USFS made the right call on the men's O team/world team. Ross literally has no medaling international result / skate to fall back on in the past 2 seasons whereas Adam consistently medaled at his GPs and made GPF in the past 2 seasons and only lost to Ross on a few points here due to uncharacteristic mistakes. I do think it's interesting that the Committee has effectively undone the judges' work of raising Ross's PCS and the caller's work of clearing some of his questionable jumps.

On Grant vs Max at 4CCs, I am willing to bet Tom Z started politiking for Max right after he missed the short. Max has now bombed two Nationals in a row, or Grant has beat him at two Nationals in a row, and Max is basically hanging onto the 4CCs spot solely on one single GP medal. Given the margin that Grant beat Max by at Nationals, I would have given the spot to Grant.
 
Unfortunately, for the ladies, given the results, I also feel they made the right call. Ashley had no body of work adv over Karen, and for a second I was wondering what would have happened to the team nomination even if Ashley just edged out Karen for 3rd. I suppose Ashley and Karen were close enough on body of work criteria heading into Nationals that the actual placement here would determine the spot if it came down to that like it did here (Karen beat Ashley at Nats and Worlds last year but not significantly, Ashley medaled at a GP this season but barely).

What I have issues with is the calling and the PCS for the top 4 ladies. PCS for Ashley, Mirai and Bradie were not in line with how they skated and more importantly not in line with how the international judges scored them even this season. Rotation calling for Mirai and Ashley was also suspicious. If all things are considered, I don't know what the results would have been, but it's clear that USFS wanted to give Mirai sufficient cushion to ensure that she makes the team.
 
Here's the direct link to the Olympic team nominations for ice dance: http://www.usfsa.org/story?id=91150&type=media

The ice dance team is Madison Chock and Evan Bates, Madison Hubbell and Zachary Donohue, and Maia Shibutani and Alex Shibutani.
...
Alternates for the 2018 Olympic Team have been named as Kaitlin Hawayek and Jean-Luc Baker (first alternate), Lorraine McNamara and Quinn Carpenter (second alternate), and Rachel Parsons and Michael Parsons (third alternate).

Link to the 2018 World, Four Continents and World Junior Dance Teams & alternates: http://www.usfsa.org/story?id=91151&type=media

2018 World Championships
Madison Chock/Evan Bates
Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue
Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani

Alternate 1 – Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker
Alternate 2 – Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter
Alternate 3 – Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons


2018 Four Continents Championships
Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker
Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter
Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons

Alternate 1 – Elliana Pogrebinsky/Alex Benoit
Alternate 2 – Karina Manta/Joseph Johnson
Alternate 3 – Julia Biechler/Damian Dodge


2018 World Junior Championships
Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko
Caroline Green/Gordon Green
Chloe Lewis/Logan Bye

Alternate 1 – Eliana Gropman/Ian Somerville
Alternate 2 – Avonlea Nguyen/Vadym Kolesnik
Alternate 3 – Emma Gunter/Caleb Wein

(I've also edited the above into my post #21 on page 1 of this thread and both links were also posted in the U.S. Dance news thread.)
 
Marco said:
On Grant vs Max at 4CCs, I am willing to bet Tom Z started politiking for Max right after he missed the short. Max has now bombed two Nationals in a row, or Grant has beat him at two Nationals in a row, and Max is basically hanging onto the 4CCs spot solely on one single GP medal. Given the margin that Grant beat Max by at Nationals, I would have given the spot to Grant.
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*annoyed hiss* Look, I'm not saying I'm 100% comfortable with the decision - I'm not - but it's somewhat unfair to Max to represent his results a "a single GP medal". He also has a CS silver from this season, and his worst result this season - the 7th at IdF - was still considerably better than both of Grant's GP results. Even last season, when Max was skating like crap, he was producing better results than Grant, and higher scores.

I wasn't expecting the USFS to go hard on BOW for 4CC as well, and was kidding when I said maybe Max's BOW would help him. I'm not about to deny I'm delighted that I'll see Max again - but I am sad for Grant. Internationally though Max has had the numbers over Grant for quite a while.
 
Tavi said:
According to the USFS president, Ross wasn’t selected because althougn he does well at Nationals he generally does not do well internationally. All you have to do is look at his ISU scores and results and compare them to the others to know he’s right.
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Here's the possible scenerios:
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen - Zhou & Chen do the team event
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen but Chen drops out - team event done by Zhou & Adam
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen but Zhou drops out - team event done by chen & adam

Ok, how is ross hurting the O team?
 
taf2002 said:
Here's the possible scenerios:
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen - Zhou & Chen do the team event
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen but Chen drops out - team event done by Zhou & Adam
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen but Zhou drops out - team event done by chen & adam

Ok, how is ross hurting the O team?
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They can't send Ross, Zhou, & Chen to the Olympics and have Adam do the Team Event. Only athletes named to the individual events are eligible for the Team Event.
 
skatingguy said:
They can't send Ross, Zhou, & Chen to the Olympics and have Adam do the Team Event. Only athletes named to the individual events are eligible for the Team Event.
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Read my post again. I only show adam there if someone drops out.
 
I think the idea is to have Adam do the FS in the team event and Nathan the SP. Ross is fairly consistent with his quadless SP, it’s the FS that can be really hit and miss with him. I suspect USFS wants Nathan to do the SP because he has the quad advantage and it’s less tiring for him than doing the FS. That leaves the FS for someone else to do and Adam is the most consistent bet for that as Vincent’s program is really ambitious, he can be prone to URs, and he won’t have PCS to rely on if he doesn’t do great.

If Adam winds up doing the SP in the team event, then the choice of him over Ross isn’t as convincing since neither has a quad (in the SP). The advantage is essentially a few points in PCS. Which is why I hope Adam does the FS. If he doesn’t do the team event at all I would be shocked since it would basically show he was named to the team for his name/reputation only
 
taf2002 said:
Here's the possible scenerios:
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen - Zhou & Chen do the team event
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen but Chen drops out - team event done by Zhou & Adam
Ross goes to the O's with Zhou & Chen but Zhou drops out - team event done by chen & adam

Ok, how is ross hurting the O team?
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Honestly, I don’t think there’s any way you will ever be convinced that Ross didn’t have a right to be on the team, regardless of what the current criteria state. But in any of the scenarios you outlined, the addition of Ross to the team means that two out of the three team members - Vincent and Ross - are wild cards. Either one of them could bomb the SP or the FS. So the fed doesn’t have much flexibility in trying to get a winning team together.

They could have Adam skate both programs, but considering there’s not much recovery time before the individual event, that’s not necessarily fair to him, regardless of whether he’s an individual medal contender. Basically, Adam has been more consistent and proven this season in international competition than either Ross or Vincent and that’s why he made the team.

Vincent’s season hasn’t been stellar and he is inconsistent still, but he’s 17 and Ross is 25, he was less than a point behind Ross at Nationals, placed higher than Ross at 2017 Nats, and had a really high profile, high-scoring win at Junior Worlds. Ross hasn’t performed well internationally in the past two seasons. So as between Vincent and Ross, I can see why they decided Vincent’s body of work was slightly stronger.

To be honest, had both Jason and Adam - who have the strongest resumes of all US men aside from Nathan - performed up to their usual standards in the FS, they likely would have placed ahead of both Vincent and Ross, and this never would have come up.
 
Tavi said:
Honestly, I don’t think there’s any way you will ever be convinced that Ross didn’t have a right to be on the team, regardless of what the current criteria state. But in any of the scenarios you outlined, the addition of Ross to the team means that two out of the three team members - Vincent and Ross - are wild cards. Either one of them could bomb the SP or the FS. So the fed doesn’t have much flexibility in trying to get a winning team together.

They could have Adam skate both programs, but considering there’s not much recovery time before the individual event, that’s not necessarily fair to him, regardless of whether he’s an individual medal contender. Basically, Adam has been more consistent and proven this season in international competition than either Ross or Vincent and that’s why he made the team.

Vincent’s season hasn’t been stellar and he is inconsistent still, but he’s 17 and Ross is 25, he was less than a point behind Ross at Nationals, placed higher than Ross at 2017 Nats, and had a really high profile, high-scoring win at Junior Worlds. Ross hasn’t performed well internationally in the past two seasons. So as between Vincent and Ross, I can see why they decided Vincent’s body of work was slightly stronger.

To be honest, had both Jason and Adam - who have the strongest resumes of all US men aside from Nathan - performed up to their usual standards in the FS, they likely would have placed ahead of both Vincent and Ross, and this never would have come up.
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Actually I do agree that adam should go instead of ross. Other than the fs at nats he has had a good year. you missed my point -imo ross wouldn't hurt the team by going. i am 99% sure that adam won't be doing the team event anyway. the federation is going to want 2 men who have reliable quads for that. but anyway my outrage is not that ross isn't going to the o's, it's that the argument that he would hurt the team is bogus, & that he's 2nd alternate for everything. He should be given at least 1 reward for his silver. At the very least 1st alternate for 4cc &/or worlds.

i think the usfsa is being very short-sighted by setting this precedent. they are sending the message that it doesn't matter how you place at nats. In the past people worked smart by training to be at their peak at nats or worlds. now they have to be brilliant from day 1 of the season & also somehow get the same scoring opportunities as the top people. as if that's within their control.
 
Yes, they are building a house of cards....kind of.

Of course, it goes both ways. They either reward Adam for popping twice at Nationals or they reward Ross for lots of misses on the GP over the past two years.
 
Taf, Ross is assigned to the Four Continents team already.

I'm another who thinks Adam is likely to be asked to skate the Free Skate for the team event unless USFS rules somehow do not allow them to skip over Vincent for that assignment. I don't remember what was said about the process in 2014. I can't imagine that Arutunian and USFS want Nathan to compete four times in 8 or 9 days. Even Nathan may now realize that is not prudent. The other US men have very little chance for individual medals unless the San Jose bug + norovirus hit the Olympic village but somehow spare them. Nathan has quite a good chance of medaling if he remains healthy and isn't physically or mentally exhausted from the team event.
 
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taf2002 said:
Actually I do agree that adam should go instead of ross. Other than the fs at nats he has had a good year. you missed my point -imo ross wouldn't hurt the team by going. i am 99% sure that adam won't be doing the team event anyway. the federation is going to want 2 men who have reliable quads for that. but anyway my outrage is not that ross isn't going to the o's, it's that the argument that he would hurt the team is bogus, & that he's 2nd alternate for everything. He should be given at least 1 reward for his silver. At the very least 1st alternate for 4cc &/or worlds.

i think the usfsa is being very short-sighted by setting this precedent. they are sending the message that it doesn't matter how you place at nats. In the past people worked smart by training to be at their peak at nats or worlds. now they have to be brilliant from day 1 of the season & also somehow get the same scoring opportunities as the top people. as if that's within their control.
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Sorry if I missed your point! But I actually think Adam will skate the FS because (1) they won’t want Nathan, who’s contending for an individual medal, to skate both; and (2) Vincent is called a lot for < and his and Adam’s FS scores are about the same (and much higher than Ross’s). Adam is older, more consistent, and has senior level championship experience. Vincent has none, and who knows how the Olympics - a different beast - will affect him. I guess because of that, I do think the lack of flexibility means Ross could potentially hurt the team. I also think that if you apply body of work to Jason versus Ross for first alternate to Worlds / Olympics (both are assigned to 4CCs) Jason comes out ahead unless you weigh Nats at 80-90% versus everything else. But I understand you think differently.

I guess I also have a different take on the message being sent. It’s not that Nationals is unimportant. If that were the case, Jason would likely be on the team as his body of work is absolutely stronger than anyone’s except Nathan’s and possibly Adam’s. What I do think it’s saying is that you have to adjust your training to take into account that all of your results matter. I think most competitors already recognize this already, because it’s clear that a lot of them are trying to win / place highly at their GPs, even in an Olympic year. And even competitors who train to peak later in the season (ie Worlds) adjust their training so that they have smaller peaks at earlier events.

But FYI, Phil Hersh just tweeted that Sam Auxier told him they will consider changes to the process like weighting tiers and events within tiers, to make the selection more transparent. It seems pretty clear that what happened here has motivated them to try to improve the process.
 
I actually think they're nuts if they pick Zhou for the team event and it could hurt him in the individual if they do.

Do they really want the panels to get more looks than they'd otherwise get at those shoddy < quads?
 
Tavi said:
(Snipped)

But FYI, Phil Hersh just tweeted that Sam Auxier told him they will consider changes to the process like weighting tiers and events within tiers, to make the selection more transparent. It seems pretty clear that what happened here has motivated them to try to improve the process.
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Forget consider - do it. That way everyone knows the exact rules, and the wonks counting every angel dancing on a pin (or devil on a flame) can crunch numbers to their ecstatic little hearts' content. Let the competition of stats be fruitful and multiply (or add or subtract or divide).

ETA: I consider myself a "recovering accountant" and work with database transactions and data models for a living. One can make data and statistics provide varying results based on (business) rules. So let TPTB specify the rules, including weighting and/or factoring and be consistent and transparent about doing it.

Publicize the hell out of it and call it "The USFS (sponsor name) Road to (Worlds/Olympics location) Cup Standings".
 
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Tavi said:
Adam is older, more consistent, and has senior level championship experience.
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Adam is older and has more senior level championship experience. Consistency, in this case, I'm not sure.

Adam had two very solid competitions this year, but also two losses to Vincent.

Vincent has a whole lot of gold and silver on his resume.
 
@VALuvsMKwan, good idea, but I don’t think you can quantify some things - like drive and determination.

@Dobre, I’m not an Adam or Vincent uber. I do take into account that Finlandia was Adam’s first competition back from a major injury. At his other three competitions, it seems to me his scores had much less variance than those of his competitors, and they were pretty much in line with scores at his 2016 GPs (not GPF). I actually don’t know that Vincent has won much recently aside from Junior Worlds. I was focused on the fact that his SP scores have been pretty consistently poor, and he really tanked in France. If you meant that he’s done well at lower levels, I agree - but that’s also true of Nathan, Jason, Adam, and I think Ross. Most people say that however much you’ve competed, the Olympics is more and different pressure. Given that Adam has been to both Worlds and GPF several times, and Vincent has struggled to date as a senior, I am guessing Adam will handle the pressure better. But it’s just a guess.
 
Rippon has been to worlds and gpf and they were just visits! He didn’t accomplish anything. Voronov medaled over him at 2016-2017 so he’s not a voronov or anything. Voronov has also medaled at gpf!
 
caseyedwards said:
Rippon has been to worlds and gpf and they were just visits! He didn’t accomplish anything.
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Rippon helped the U.S. retain 3 men's spots at 2010 & 2015 Worlds (eta) and was the top U.S. men's finisher (6th overall, 4th in FS) at 2016 Worlds.
 
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Tavi said:
@Dobre, I’m not an Adam or Vincent uber.
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Neither am I. That is why I find the comparison between these two athletes to be an interesting one.

Tavi said:
I do take into account that Finlandia was Adam’s first competition back from a major injury.
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Very valid. Also very valid to consider that Vincent has also dealt with injuries. Seems to be a consistent aspect regarding the men's field as a whole, but certainly one relevant for both of these men.

Tavi said:
I actually don’t know that Vincent has won much recently aside from Junior Worlds.
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He's in his first senior season. For sure, he needs time to adjust and prove himself on the senior level. But being new on the senior scene doesn't make a young athlete inconsistent. Vincent is quite consistent. He came back from his own serious injury to medal at his first two JGPs and finished fourth at the JGPF. Then won medals in both his JGPs last season, silver at Nationals, first at the Bavarian Open, and gold at Junior Worlds. Medaled at Finlandia. Second in the free skate at Cup of China in a very heavy duty field. A free skate score above Kolyada, Jin, and Fernandez. Bronze at Nationals.

He had a bad competition in France, but that doesn't make him less consistent than Adam. I look at their records and I don't know which one is more consistent. Which--in this case--is actually a very positive thing to say for both of them.
 
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Sylvia said:
Rippon helped the U.S. retain 3 men's spots at 2010 & 2015 Worlds (eta) and was the top U.S. men's finisher (6th overall, 4th in FS) at 2016 Worlds.
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So better to give Miner olympics and rippon worlds! He helps get spots even if he can’t win any medals.
 
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