2018 US Olympic, World, 4CC and Junior Worlds selections

[rfisher]

I know a lot of people pay little to no attention to juniors, but it's how some think skaters just appeared from nowhere. And apparently many pay no attention to the GP series or challengers. Zhou has been winning medals since he was a novice skater. In fact, his novice program to Casablanca was brilliant. I may remember the skater but hardly ever remember programs, but I remember him. He did very well as a junior after a very significant injury and has made the transition to senior very well. Better than some of his international peers. And even if he underrotates those quads SOME of the time, he usually stays on his feet and not on his ass on the ice. Bradie also did well as a junior. A junior facing fierce competition from the Russians and Japanese. She didn't beat them then and is unlikely to do so now. Not because she's not a good skater, but because they are beasts who shred the competition. She's more likely to score higher than either Mirai or Karen. Oh. Look. She already has. My only complaint about her is she's so blonde and pale she disappears, but that's shallow. So, having Nathan do the SP where the points are racked up and Vincent do the free is as reasonable as having Adam. Nathan is the key here. Same with Bradie/Mirai and Karen. There's no way they'll have Nathan skate four events. Between that and practice, the risk of injury is far too great. The US is looking at bronze at best anyway. Again.

 

[Spun Silver]

Vincent has a whole lot of gold and silver on his resume.

I've been following Vincent since he won juniors in 2013 and was impressed enough to donate to his training costs. (I have only done that for a few skaters. I wish we were rich!) What I love about him is his refusal to settle for anything but perfection. I think he has it in more than one field (e.g., academics and music IIRC). He also has quite the ego - a year or two ago he bragged (with every right) about his long streak of clean performances. I'm sure every fall or big mistake makes him furious with himself. These characteristics may be very hard on him psychically (as we saw in that long Instagram post) and may even cause social problems (people with Olympic-sized egos can be a pain) but I also think they can be the stuff of champions. Of course every athlete is different. But anyway he impresses the heck out of me. He's not quite soup yet as a senior but I am totally confident that he will be, if he stays healthy and continues, and because of his champion's mentality I wouldn't be surprised if he gives us a great Olympic moment or two. Maybe it wont happen this time. But he has it in him and I'm sure it will come out again just like it did at Nats both this year and last and in 2013.

 

[pinky166]

Vincent’s season hasn’t been stellar and he is inconsistent still, but he’s 17 and Ross is 25, he was less than a point behind Ross at Nationals, placed higher than Ross at 2017 Nats, and had a really high profile, high-scoring win at Junior Worlds. Ross hasn’t performed well internationally in the past two seasons. So as between Vincent and Ross, I can see why they decided Vincent’s body of work was slightly stronger.

Just FYI Ross is actually 26 and turns 27 in 2 weeks. There was also an icenetwork article about him earlier this season that basically said he was gonna retire after this season.

Maybe he’ll change his mind now though

 

[Seerek]

I know a lot of people pay little to no attention to juniors, but it's how some think skaters just appeared from nowhere. And apparently many pay no attention to the GP series or challengers.

I'm quite surprised that so many of the "expert" skating video bloggers and social media accounts really don't have much knowledge of the field outside of the top 6 or 8.

 

[SpeedySucks]

i think the usfsa is being very short-sighted by setting this precedent. they are sending the message that it doesn't matter how you place at nats. In the past people worked smart by training to be at their peak at nats or worlds.

In the last 8-10 years, we've seen a lot of skaters train to peak at Nationals and then not skate very well at Worlds. This was a problem for Ross in both 2011 and 2013. Skaters should aim to give a strong performance at Nationals, but the top skaters shouldn't be training to give their best performance of the season there. They should be pacing their season to have their best performance at Worlds. Encouraging skaters to peak at Nationals and then having them place outside of the top 10 at Worlds does no good for the U.S. program.

 

[haribobo]

That is a huge part of it yes. I think also USFS feels a bit embarrassed/annoyed with the skating on the GP series by some of our top skaters who seem to clearly use it as a warmup event or a place to test out week-old programs for the first time. In a lot of ways, I see Ross as the sacrificial lamb (to Vincent more than Adam who deserved to be way out ahead in the criteria and still podiumed at Nationals) to get the point across to take the GP events more seriously or whatever. He didn't even do that poorly, but compared to Nationals where he scored a whopping 60ish points higher than SA, and Grant raised his score by about 50 points from Rostelecom to Nationals, it just seems like USFS is really angered by skaters thinking its ok to bomb out on the GP and then do their best at Nationals, expecting all will be forgiven. Conversely, they want to reward those who *are* taking GP events seriously. I think they want to encourage more Michelle Kwans and less Nicole Bobeks...will be interesting to see what effect this has going forward. I think it was easy to dismiss the Ashley vs. Mirai in 2014 as a one-off because Mirai had no coach, but its really starting to sink in what this process is all about now...

 

[Karen-W]

I think it was easy to dismiss the Ashley vs. Mirai in 2014 as a one-off because Mirai had no coach, but its really starting to sink in what this process is all about now...

Interestingly, I have been thinking this over for the last few days, why I am far less upset over Miner being bumped in favor of Adam than I was over Mirai being bumped in favor of Ashley 4 years ago. I've come to the conclusion (apart from being an admitted Mirai-uber) that I'm less bothered by it in 2018 because we already saw this play out four years ago. It was, you are right, easy to dismiss Ashley vs. Mirai as a one-off for a myriad of reasons, but it's now apparent, with this happening in the men's field this time around, that the USFSA means business with the BOW evaluation as part of the process for selecting the Olympic, Worlds, and even 4CCs teams. It might take a couple more Olympic cycles, with this kind of scenario playing out in the other two disciplines, for people to really accept that just showing up and winning a medal at Nationals isn't enough anymore. Most times, it probably will be, but not always. And, honestly, as rough as it has been with the men and ladies (and let's not even discuss the mess that is our pairs program) both bouncing between 2 and 3 entrants at both the Olympics and Worlds over the last decade, this is an approach that the USFSA probably should have taken 7-8 years ago instead of just 4 years ago.

I do hope that Sam Auxier means what he says and that the USFSA will add some weights to each tier and offer a more transparent selection process going forward. Sure, maybe it would have meant that some skaters went into Nationals knowing they had zero chance of being selected for the Olympics, 4CCs or Worlds in coming months, but there are a lot of skaters in every discipline who arrived in San Jose knowing they didn't have a shot at making the team (every single dance team outside of the Shibs, H/D and C/B *had* to have known that they weren't going to be selected for the Olympics over the 3 teams that qualified for the GPF last month).

 

[caseyedwards]

That is a huge part of it yes. I think also USFS feels a bit embarrassed/annoyed with the skating on the GP series by some of our top skaters who seem to clearly use it as a warmup event or a place to test out week-old programs for the first time. In a lot of ways, I see Ross as the sacrificial lamb (to Vincent more than Adam who deserved to be way out ahead in the criteria and still podiumed at Nationals) to get the point across to take the GP events more seriously or whatever. He didn't even do that poorly, but compared to Nationals where he scored a whopping 60ish points higher than SA, and Grant raised his score by about 50 points from Rostelecom to Nationals, it just seems like USFS is really angered by skaters thinking its ok to bomb out on the GP and then do their best at Nationals, expecting all will be forgiven. Conversely, they want to reward those who *are* taking GP events seriously. I think they want to encourage more Michelle Kwans and less Nicole Bobeks...will be interesting to see what effect this has going forward. I think it was easy to dismiss the Ashley vs. Mirai in 2014 as a one-off because Mirai had no coach, but its really starting to sink in what this process is all about now...

Like all the decades of comments of figure skating elites saying a season is all about nationals wouldn’t have anything to do with a feeling that nationals is most important?! Lol! And what about the jujitsu of making nationals unimportant compared to Grand Prix events? What about the more cash poor skaters who need to work and then trained for nationals the most? Yeah skaters did take off for money to pay for nationals training! Now people are expected to have the money to train round the clock and do every competion equally? It’s so unfair!

 

[PRlady]

I do hope that Sam Auxier means what he says and that the USFSA will add some weights to each tier and offer a more transparent selection process going forward. Sure, maybe it would have meant that some skaters went into Nationals knowing they had zero chance of being selected for the Olympics, 4CCs or Worlds in coming months, but there are a lot of skaters in every discipline who arrived in San Jose knowing they didn't have a shot at making the team (every single dance team outside of the Shibs, H/D and C/B *had* to have known that they weren't going to be selected for the Olympics over the 3 teams that qualified for the GPF last month).

Well, ice dancers still understand the 'wait your turn' concept better than the other disciplines. Every American team outside the top three know that they will be/have been waiting their turns a long, long time, and that the chances of beating any of them are remote.

And it will probably stay that way. None of those six skaters are old by dance standards. And with V/M leaving, why should any of them give up on a potential World silver medal? (I assume that unless P/C have a very bad day, their leading position is secure.)

So yes, H/B and the younger teams all know they're stuck for a while and they continue to compete anyway. I don't think the BOW requirement for Olys and even Worlds is going to dissuade a skater who thinks that eventually s/he will rise to the top.

 

[Sylvia]

Just tweeted: https://twitter.com/SarahandDrew/status/951949901994364928

Ross Miner and Ashley Wagner have withdrawn from 4CC; replaced by Hochstein and [Angela] Wang. Starr Andrews WD from Jr Worlds, replaced by Emmy Ma.

Not yet published on USFS' International Assignments page ( http://www.usfsa.org/story?id=84032&menu=TeamUSA ) but I believe these changes to be accurate.

ETA link to USFS' press release, so official now: http://www.usfsa.org/story?id=91173&type=media

 

[misskarne]

Jackie is also reporting the same information.

No reasons have been given for any of the withdrawals. We can assume Andrews' is not injury as she is still going to 4CC.

 

[Sylvia]

We can assume Andrews' is not injury as she is still going to 4CC.

Correct.

 

[vesperholly]

I guess Starr is saying she's ready to be a Senior now!

 

[toddlj]

I guess Starr is saying she's ready to be a Senior now!

I would bet she'll be more competitive at 4CC than at Jr Worlds.

 

[Debbie S]

Not surprising about Ashley but I was hoping to see her La La Land again. Maybe she'll perform it on SOI.

Understandable that Starr wants to focus on Senior and 2 winter comps may have been too much, but I was hoping that the U.S. could earn the max JGP ladies spots. Sigh.

 

[wickedwitch]

Could it be that Starr can't do the lutz which she would need for a good placement at junior worlds?

I'm happy for Angela and Emmy.

 

[clairecloutier]

I'm also pleased for Angela and Emmy. And Grant.

Angela really deserved some reward after skating so well at Nationals.

Emmy didn't skate her best at Nationals, but hopefully she can regroup for Junior Worlds!

And it will be nice to see Grant one last time (if this is indeed his final season).

 

[oleada]

Understandable that Starr wants to focus on Senior and 2 winter comps may have been too much, but I was hoping that the U.S. could earn the max JGP ladies spots. Sigh.

Honestly, that was unlikely even with Starr there. The Russians, Japanese and Koreans are all way ahead in terms of both SB and scoring potential. Plus, the lutz being the solo jump also doesn’t bode well for her.

I’m really happy for Angela and Grant.

 

[katmari]

I don't agree with all the decisions the USFS made and can understand why Ashley and Ross are upset. I am happy for Angela and Grant though.

Grant and Jason always have so much fun when they compete together and I'm looking forward to their adventures in Taipei.