Heading into Nationals, Alysa, Mariah and Karen are the clear favorites for the 3 spots; not having JGPF means Lindsay not only misses her last opportunity to score big but also that she doesn't get to compete at a major international - which Polina did in 2014. I will probably scale down her odds to 'unlikely'. Amber doesn't nail the 3axel still but her scores are still pretty good - I think her fate vs Karen will most likely be decided by Karen's jump rotations at Nationals. In 2018 she was dinged quite a bit on UR but rotated just enough triples to pass Ashley.
U.S. Women [#2]: The Unbearable Lightness of Beijing
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Carolla5501
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LOL
USFS will have Bradie right up there... So I expect that one of your three is off the list.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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I'm betting that Bradie won't be at Nationals.
I'm not sure how reliable Dave Lease's info out of Colorado Springs is but in the TSL update last night, he seems to believe she isn't skating right now - per his sources, Gabriella Izzo knew in Warsaw that she would be going to Golden Spin as Bradie's replacement.
Alysa is going down and Mariah is going up…
Scoring trends for the top senior-eligible US ladies in the fall circuit. Alysa has stayed quite consistent, as expected. Amber and Karen have both been inconsistent, just look at how up and down the scores are. Mariah's Rostelecom scores shows very clearly on the chart.
Sylvia
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Scoring is not truly comparable among events so we shouldn't stress too much over these charts, IMO.
Alysa has scored over 200 points in all 5 of her internationals this season.I felt Mariah was underscored in France (partly due to skating 2nd in the FS) and that the GP scores in general were somewhat inflated in Russia (the final GP comp).
Also, Amber landed her best 3A attempt in international competition to date in her Golden Spin SP (3A< base value 6.40 -2.30 GOE = 4.10 points) while Mariah knows she needs her 3F+3T (that was quite consistent in 2019-20 season) in Nashville.
Brenda_Bottems
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Thank you Sylvia,for again being the voice of reason and general sanity in this forum.
These line graphs can be manipulated easily to fulfill any agenda. We shall let the skating at Nationals do the talking.
-BB
These line graphs can be manipulated easily to fulfill any agenda. We shall let the skating at Nationals do the talking.
-BB
Coco
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Mariah did skate at Cranberry, so three events. But her GPs were so late in the year, I think she can be forgiven for not being in peak form there.
Trends have to be viewed in context, what is a skater trending from and to. Alysa is trending "down" but still way higher than others. The higher you score, the greater the odds you will not score as high next time out. Same with Mariah's low season opening score, it would have been very strange if she didn't surpass that.
Trends have to be viewed in context, what is a skater trending from and to. Alysa is trending "down" but still way higher than others. The higher you score, the greater the odds you will not score as high next time out. Same with Mariah's low season opening score, it would have been very strange if she didn't surpass that.
AxelAnnie
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Wait! What? Did Bell think she wasn't going to skate this season? I would think skaters - especially - should be ready for almost anything. I do not understand your assertion and where it comes from?
I saw this in FanZone, and it made me laugh: After receiving feedback, Bell decided to shelve the Lady Gaga program.
Who in the world thought Bell could pull of Lady Gaga?
Frau Muller
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Alysa’s CS Lombardia Trophy score (219) seems to figure, yet that event occurred one week before CS Autumn challenge. So Autumn Challenge doesn’t count because it took place too early in the season, yet Lombardia counts?
Trying to understand the logic of including/excluding scores.
Sylvia
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Well I enjoyed Mariah's EX to Lady Gaga's "Always Remember Us This Way" in 2019-20.
Yazmeen
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DreamSkates
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Mariah's FP was 140 in France? Amber's was 118 at Golden Spin?Scoring is not truly comparable among events so we shouldn't stress too much over these charts, IMO.
I felt Mariah was underscored in France (partly due to skating 2nd in the FS) and that the GP scores in general were somewhat inflated in Russia (the final GP comp).
Also, Amber landed her best 3A attempt in international competition to date in her Golden Spin SP (3A< base value 6.40 -2.30 GOE = 4.10 points) while Mariah knows she needs her 3F+3T (that was quite consistent in 2019-20 season) in Nashville.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Mariah's FS in France was 130, her FS in Russia was 141.
DreamSkates
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Well I knew there was a 140-ish in there somewhere, so thanks for the correction. The point being her scores have been better than Amber's, so far.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Oh, absolutely! Heck Mariah's "bad" total score of 179.42 at Cranberry, that had most of us panicking about her readiness and ability to make the Olympic team, is in the same general range as 3/4 of Amber's scores (183.46 Finlandia, 175.83 NHK, 183.36 Golden Spin).
I have said for weeks that the one uncertainty is the success of Bradie's petition. I don't think she will be at Nationals but will most likely petition for a spot.
If Ashley's 7th at 2017 Worlds didn't help her with the USFS, I doubt Bradie's 9th at 2021 Worlds can - but Bradie has Tom on her side so who knows.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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I suspect that the success of any petition from Bradie rests on how the women who ARE at Nationals skate. If some combination of 3 of Alysa, Mariah, Karen and Lindsay go relatively clean, then they'll send those three.
True. She hasn't competed all season. If the other 3 or 4 have been skating comparably well all season including Nationals, then why risk it with her. Then again, I feel Tom Z always has his way in situations like these I don't know why
Michelle did, in 2006. Bradie is not the Kween, of course.
SkateFanBerlin
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The graphs are fun to look at but not much of an indication. As a statistician I'd say 5 year trends wold be telling but they are difficult because of changes in the scoring after 2018 Oly and the difference between jr. and senior scoring.
I think if she's back in shape USFS will give Bradie a test skate like they did for Kerrigan. Bradie is a reliable skater. If she did it in the test she would do it in the competition.
Mariah has become a little like Kostner. It would take a good part of the season to get her 3/3 working. Even then she had a 50-50 chance.
I think if she's back in shape USFS will give Bradie a test skate like they did for Kerrigan. Bradie is a reliable skater. If she did it in the test she would do it in the competition.
Mariah has become a little like Kostner. It would take a good part of the season to get her 3/3 working. Even then she had a 50-50 chance.
Karen-W
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Bradie is no Kerrigan. She doesn't have a World or Olympic medal on her resume and her bad skate at Worlds saw her finish 9th, whereas Kerrigan's bad skate at '93 Worlds saw her finish 5th. Granted, it was a different time and that off-podium finish DID cost the US a 3rd entry the next year, but there is still the matter of the fact that Bradie lacks the other accomplishments that Kerrigan DID have.
Mariah is in a better position, even lacking the 3-3 at this time, than Bradie, simply because she is showing up and competing.
olympic
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^Kerrigan was also the only US woman in the mix with the top ladies at the time - Baiul, Bonaly, Lu and Sato, and thus reasonably expected to have a shot at an Olympic medal, so obviously she would have been given a bye. The other ladies were the much unloved Harding, and youngsters like Kwan and Bobek, and others the USFSA didn't really give a fig about like Ervin, who was more interested in Harvard U than skating, and Kwiatkowski, who couldn't even advance to the LP at 1993 Worlds.
Tennell is not in the mix internationally, kind of 2nd tier behind the best Russians, and maybe competitive on a good day with the best from JPN or Young You which is Bell's situation now. She would probably only be considered if she bowled everyone over at Nationals, which is unlikely for a 1st skate of the season
Tennell is not in the mix internationally, kind of 2nd tier behind the best Russians, and maybe competitive on a good day with the best from JPN or Young You which is Bell's situation now. She would probably only be considered if she bowled everyone over at Nationals, which is unlikely for a 1st skate of the season
VGThuy
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Kerrigan was also ready and willing to compete after a good skate at an earlier comp that season but was WHACKED.
Frau Muller
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…and we know how that turned out (withdrawal after an early practice & call for the alternate).
I always wondered how NBC may have pushed that…to get the media queen to do early publicity for the Olympics. Kwan was the Simone Biles of her time…pushed into staying one mo’ time for $. I always felt that Sasha Cohen should’ve been allowed to shine in 2006 as undisputed USA#1. Sasha was the only US medalist - silver - at 2005 World; Michelle 4th.
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VGThuy
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Well, Sasha should have beat Kwan at at least one Nationals before 2006 then and maybe a World title. Kwan was not in Sasha's way as undisputed no. 1 US skater and if she needed a physically ailing Kwan to withdraw to be the "undisputed" no. 1, then that says everything about Sasha.
I bet if Kwan could have competed, she would have, and she was doing triple lutzes and triple flips at the practices before she pulled her groin and had to withdraw. And Biles and Kwan at least competed every season going into their last Olympics and in Biles' case, she was virtually undefeated in the AA and FX and probably vault (I haven't looked) from 2013-2019 except for one year where she took a break. She did the entire camp system and team selection procedures going into Tokyo even when the 2020 Olympics were pushed back due to COVID and helped create that funk. Athletes shouldn't bother doing the whole "I'm doing it for America" spiel because actual Americans seem super fickle and underappreciative of their athletes. Biles did everything she could to represent America well and won so many titles and medals in the name for the country throughout many years (and in an unprecedented way for a gymnast) while pushing the envelope technically and reimagining what women could do in gymnastics, and she had one truly strange competition and people act like she never did anything for them...as if they're entitled. If that's the kind of fans the U.S. produces, then no athlete needs any enemies.
AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)
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I know…. Mariah can score very high with hardly any jump content. I don’t think I’ve seen her do any triple triples this whole season and that includes the short program where she plans it. I guess judges see her as more of a Jason Brown…. what she does she does well. Although I don’t think her jumps have any flow out they always seem to come to a standstill.
VGThuy
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Honestly, a 3/3 is truly and seriously important in the SP so you won't be buried and stuck in an early group. However, for the LP...a lot of the U.S. ladies with UR issues on their second triple and inconsistency issues with not falling on it should probably come up with a different game plan for the LP where they do 7 triples with two 2As if they do a 2A/3T and a 2A/1E/3Sal(or Flip) and hope they can repeat the Lutz and Flip/Loop. Or maybe they are doing that already and having such different jump layouts is causing the inconsistency with the 3/3 in the first place.
Coco
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I wouldn't say Bradie is 'not in the mix internationally.' While she missed this season, she did medal on the GP and make the GP Final in the last true GP series (pre-crud). She also medaled at the fully attended 4CC in 2020. And her 9th at 2021 Worlds, where she was 7th in the SP and 8th in the FS, was with falling apart boots.
And while Mariah is not attempting 3-3 in her FS, I don't think 'hardly any jump content' is fair as she is repeating Flip and Lutz, and putting 3 of those 4 jumps as her three bonus passes.
And while Mariah is not attempting 3-3 in her FS, I don't think 'hardly any jump content' is fair as she is repeating Flip and Lutz, and putting 3 of those 4 jumps as her three bonus passes.
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