Doom and gloom in the US ladies thread is traditional
But I agree, Karen & Alysa, at least, have to be considered outside medal contenders. Anyone who places 4th at worlds has to be included in the mix (barring injury or other significant change), and Alysa has a lot of tech content if she has an on competition. Neither look likely at this point in the season, but the Olympics are very much their own thing. And while I agree a Russian sweep looks likely right now, I really do think it'll be harder for them to sweep in Beijing than it was at worlds, especially if Tukt doesn't make the team & it would be an all Eteri podium. If, say, Kaori, or Wakaba, or Young You, or the US girls have a hit short program, I wouldn't be surprised to see whoever goes in as Russia #3 to receive a PCS/GOE reality check that drops her far enough that another country has a genuine shot at a medal. That's the key--the 3a is the only differentiator, jump wise, in the short, and it's possible Valieva will be the only Russian on the team with a consistent 3a.
But I agree, Karen & Alysa, at least, have to be considered outside medal contenders. Anyone who places 4th at worlds has to be included in the mix (barring injury or other significant change), and Alysa has a lot of tech content if she has an on competition. Neither look likely at this point in the season, but the Olympics are very much their own thing. And while I agree a Russian sweep looks likely right now, I really do think it'll be harder for them to sweep in Beijing than it was at worlds, especially if Tukt doesn't make the team & it would be an all Eteri podium. If, say, Kaori, or Wakaba, or Young You, or the US girls have a hit short program, I wouldn't be surprised to see whoever goes in as Russia #3 to receive a PCS/GOE reality check that drops her far enough that another country has a genuine shot at a medal. That's the key--the 3a is the only differentiator, jump wise, in the short, and it's possible Valieva will be the only Russian on the team with a consistent 3a.
I've previously suggested that someone start a thread in the Trash Can to discuss the Olympics prospects for any & all the women worldwide - maybe this one will do?
Lindsay!