U.S. Women [#2]: The Unbearable Lightness of Beijing

[Debbie S]

Well, Lindsay hasn't competed on the Senior GP yet, just a Challenger. If they consider Bradie's GP to be her first Senior int'l, that wouldn't be a true comparison to Lindsay.

 

[Coco]

Bradie's senior career, pre-Olympic season, was a story of hardship and frustration. It hasn't gotten a ton of attention from NBC, perhaps because Bradie doesn't want to draw attention to injuries in a judged sport, but it's quite remarkable that she pushed through all that and achieved her goal.

 

[reut]

Interview with Amber Glenn my colleague took after SA, really loved it.

Amber Glenn: "I want to be the best person and role model I can be"
http://absoluteskating.com/interviews/2021amberglenn.html

 

[Coco]

Good attempt at the 3a by Amber today!!! Onward and upward

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Good attempt at the 3a by Amber today!!! Onward and upward

I watched the program , so was it 2 foot or under rotated or both?

 

[toddlj]

I watched the program , so was it 2 foot or under rotated or both?

Harsh judging?

 

[Karen-W]

I watched the program , so was it 2 foot or under rotated or both?

It just looked UR to my eye but it's hard to say for sure since we didn't get any decent replay angles.

 

[aml78]

Under and 2ft. Apparently they can add the deductions together which is why they justify the -5. Nevertheless, feels excessively harsh and definitely more harsh than it would be if she had a Russian flag in front of her name. I don’t think what she put out should be penalized as harshly as someone would be for crashing onto the ice and into the boards.

 

[VGThuy]

I think the women's team is wide-open with Liu having some leeway, but she should still place in the top 3 to earn an Olympic berth. If she places like 5th, it'll depend on far behind she is from the other ladies, but I don't think she has done anything to get any extra consideration if she places lower than 5th. I'd feel weird if she made the Olympic team while placing a distant 4th as well considering everything.

 

[alchemy void]

Yes, -5 for Amber's 3A was harsh but probably fair. I'd probably have gone with a -3. Of course, in the grand scheme of things, those two -5s didn't make much of a difference in the overall score. I thought she was justifiably awarded the best PCS in both segments of the competition and was scored fairly.

And even though Izzo had jump problems today, she still was ranked 3rd in PCS, which I thought was well-deserved.

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

Amber's program was a little light today, but there were no unders or falls. Amber in the past seems to throw it all out there and hope for the best. Maybe a change in coaching advice- "If you really can't do it, don't do it". (Of course yesterday she did a decent impersonation of a 3A - under but not down graded or a fall)

 

[Karen-W]

One last update to the US Olympic Selection Criteria before Nationals in 4 weeks!

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds W – 217.20	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds W – 208.44 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds W – 193.44 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds W – 178.10 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Women
Group 2 - Alysa Liu (205.74 Cranberry; 219.24 CS Lombardia; 207.40 CS Nebelhorn; 206.53 SCI; 202.90 NHK)

Group 3 -

• Mariah Bell (179.42 Cranberry; 190.79 IdF; 210.35 Rostelecom)
• Karen Chen (208.63 Worlds 2021; 173.00 CS ACI; 202.49 CS Finlandia; 183.41 SCI; 194.00 IdF)

Group 4 -

• Amber Glenn (183.46 CS Finlandia; 201.02 SkAm; 175.83 NHK; 183.36 CS Golden Spin)
• Bradie Tennell* (197.81 Worlds 2021)
• Lindsay Thorngren (181.45 JGP Courchevel 1; 193.77 JGP Ljubljana; 184.40 CS Warsaw; JGPF)

Others with International Assignments
Starr Andrews (155.25 CS ACI; 177.63 SkAm; 157.35 CS Austria)
Hanna Harrell (158.89 CS Golden Spin)
Gabriella Izzo (182.76 US Classic; 155.78 CS Warsaw; 167.96 CS Golden Spin)
Audrey Shin (174.73 Cranberry; 172.46 CS Lombardia; 160.78 SkAm; 169.99 CS Austria)
Sierra Venetta (159.72 Cranberry; 177.40 US Classic)

* = yet to make 2021-22 senior debut
Bolded = Score that Qualified Skater into Group
Italics = Junior International score
Green = Postponed International Assignment
Removed skaters who 1) Lack the TES minimums, 2) Did not qualify for Nationals, or 3) are not Age-Eligible for the Senior Internationals

 

[haribobo]

Thought it would be fun to average the scores of some senior women this season- using GP and Challenger, leaving out Autumn Classic because that was an early and low-scoring event for many.

Alysa Liu = 202, 206, 219, 207 =834/4
208 Average

Mariah Bell 210, 190 = 400/2
200 Average

Karen Chen 202, 194, 183= 579/3
193 Average

Amber Glenn 183, 175, 201, 183=742/4
185 Average

Lindsay Thorngren 184 (also 181 and 193 at JGP events)
184 Average

Starr Andrews 157, 177=334/2
167 Average

Audrey Shin 169, 160, 172= 501/3
167 Average

Gabriella Izzo 167, 155= 322/2
161 Average

 

[Spun Silver]

That's very helpful. It settles things, IMO, unless there's a big surprise at Nationals.

 

[toddlj]

Lindsay Thorngren 184 (also 181 and 193 at JGP events)
184 Average

Not sure why we wouldn't include Lindsay's JGP scores?

 

[haribobo]

Not sure why we wouldn't include Lindsay's JGP scores?

JGP scores are inherently lower than senior scores, so its not really a proper comparison. Funny enough, her highest score was from a JGP. Anyway, the average if using her JGP scores plus her Challenger event is 186, so it bumps her up 2 points overall. Not really a huge change there.

 

[Karen-W]

Thought it would be fun to average the scores of some senior women this season- using GP and Challenger, leaving out Autumn Classic because that was an early and low-scoring event for many.

Alysa Liu = 202, 206, 219, 207 =834/4
208 Average

Mariah Bell 210, 190 = 400/2
200 Average

Karen Chen 202, 194, 183= 579/3
193 Average

Amber Glenn 183, 175, 201, 183=742/4
185 Average

Lindsay Thorngren 184 (also 181 and 193 at JGP events)
184 Average

Starr Andrews 157, 177=334/2
167 Average

Audrey Shin 169, 160, 172= 501/3
167 Average

Gabriella Izzo 167, 155= 322/2
161 Average

I don't think it is right to leave out ACI. That was always a designated Challenger and the women knew it, plus it was after Lombardia, which you are including for Alysa and Audrey, plus Lindsay had to be ready earlier than even Alysa & Audrey for her 1st JGP assignment.

In addition, as I pointed out in the Pairs discussion, rounding down by dropping the tenths doesn't give an accurate picture since the scoring system does go out to the tenth. And, of course, average score is NOT a part of the Selection Criteria.

Liu = 836.07/4 = 209.02

Bell = 401.14/2 = 200.57

Chen = 752.90/4 = 188.23

Glenn = 743.67/4 = 185.92

Thorngren = 559.62/3 = 186.54

Andrews = 490.23/3 = 163.41

Shin = 503.23/3 = 167.74

Izzo = 323.74/2 = 161.87 (including US Classic, which was held after Lombardia and the same weekend as ACI, bumps her average up 506.50/3 = 168.33)

 

[toddlj]

The scores aren't updated yet to include the final event, but now that the Challenger Series is over, Alysa has earned some prize money for winning the series! (Gubanova, the winner in Zagreb, only scored ~184, and therefore will not move ahead of Alysa)

https://results.isu.org/events/cs2021/cswomen.htm

 

[jfeiqfwq]

I think the women's team is wide-open with Liu having some leeway, but she should still place in the top 3 to earn an Olympic berth. If she places like 5th, it'll depend on far behind she is from the other ladies, but I don't think she has done anything to get any extra consideration if she places lower than 5th. I'd feel weird if she made the Olympic team while placing a distant 4th as well considering everything.

Luckily, this won't even be a concern. Liu is the overwhelming favorite to win at Nats.

 

[Rukia]

Overwhelming favorite? I feel like she's definitely the favorite, but I can see several scenarios where she doesn't win, so I wouldn't consider that overwhelming. Calling of rotations will be very important for her.

 

[Brenda_Bottems]

With apologies to @AngieNikodinovLove,the only reasonable trio to represent the United States in Beijing are Misses Liu,Chen and Bell.

-BB

 

[Karen-W]

With apologies to @AngieNikodinovLove,the only reasonable trio to represent the United States in Beijing are Misses Liu,Chen and Bell.

-BB

Eh, agree to disagree. I think Liu and Bell are in good position to be selected but Chen's posted 2 scores this fall that are lower than Lindsay Thorngren's senior int'l debut at Warsaw Cup, and her scores are pretty comparable to Glenn.

Chen
ACI 173.00
SCI 183.41
IdF 194.00
Finlandia 202.49

Glenn
NHK 175.83
Golden Spin 183.36
Finlandia 183.46
SkAm 201.02

If it's close between all three at Nats, with Chen in 4th, she might get the nod again, like she did for Worlds last year, but if either Glenn or Thorngren post a score that decisively beats Chen and finish in the Top 3, then I expect they will get the nod.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

With apologies to @AngieNikodinovLove,the only reasonable trio to represent the United States in Beijing are Misses Liu,Chen and Bell.

-BB

Well I always have said I am a realist and I’m fair, and Amber like Alexa and Brandon seem to be trending backwards and downhill now. So even though I love my Amber if she’s not going to rise to the occasion then I say don’t put her on the team.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

Scoring trends for the top senior-eligible US ladies in the fall circuit. Alysa has stayed quite consistent, as expected. Amber and Karen have both been inconsistent, just look at how up and down the scores are. Mariah's Rostelecom scores shows very clearly on the chart.

 

[Coco]

I wouldn't say Amber is trending down. Odd how her line virtually mirrors Karen's.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

I wouldn't say Amber is trending down. Odd how her line virtually mirrors Karen's.

Amber and Karen are pretty much equally inconsistent

 

[Karen-W]

I wouldn't say Amber is trending down. Odd how her line virtually mirrors Karen's.

But @dancelion21 didn't say Amber was trending down.

"Amber and Karen have both been inconsistent, just look at how up and down the scores are."

And that is a very accurate statement.

 

[Coco]

I was referencing @AngieNikodinovLove 's post above that.

 

[Sonata]

Interesting trends! I would say that although they may have similar curves, Chen beat Glenn head to head by a lot, she was given the blood bath assignment of SC compared to easier SA to Glenn, and her points were still higher at her last event despite that event occurring earlier in the season than Glenn’s latest outing. Clearly Chen’s PCS give her a lot of buffer and from a tv standpoint, her programs are exquisite.

 

[Maximillian]

Interesting trends! I would say that although they may have similar curves, Chen beat Glenn head to head by a lot, she was given the blood bath assignment of SC compared to easier SA to Glenn, and her points were still higher at her last event despite that event occurring earlier in the season than Glenn’s latest outing. Clearly Chen’s PCS give her a lot of buffer and from a tv standpoint, her programs are exquisite.

I would so love to see both Karen's SP and LP at the Olympics, they are 'chef's kiss'!