This one is a bit hard. Regina King *seems* to be the frontrunner, but she wasn't nominated for either of the two biggest predictors (SAG and BAFTA). I'm thinking it's between her and Rachel Weisz, with a slight edge to King, as Weisz and Emma Stone could split the vote for The Favourite.You are spot on about the four acting awards, but I would have liked to see your prediction for supporting actress, even though Blunt could not be a part of it.
In other Oscars stuff, anyone else think it's a bit odd that they didn't want to allow all the nominated songs to be performed, in order to keep the ceremony running on time, yet they invite Queen to perform? Unless the performance is like 1 minute (maybe 2) long to introduce Bohemian Rhapsody as the best picture nominee, I don't quite think that's fair.