Movie Awards Season 2018-19 Road to Oscar

Japanfan

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Yes, thankyou. Can we please suspend him without wrecking the hard work and dedication of everyone else on that movie? (Yes, I'm still salty it lost that GLAAD nomination. Why even let it be nominated if you were just going to disqualify it? Jerks.)
For the avoidance of doubt, Bohemian Rhapsody remains nominated in the Outstanding British Film category, and the other individuals named as candidates in respect of the film remain nominees.
Nonetheless, I expect that ticket sales will plummet, which could hurt those who participated in the film.

But there is no way around that, and I would hope that those who participated in the film understand that the issue is more important than the profit they make from the film.

If I had been planning to see the movie - which I wasn't - I would probably have decided not to.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I don't know if the sales will suffer too much though. It already made $833,595,253 total with $208,948,195 of that being domestic. I don't think everyone involved will get a cut of the box office grosses, but I did read Singer himself had it in his contract that he would, which is why he stands to make $40 million off of the profits. There's been no update on whether the studio has tried to fight that as he has retained director's credit for the film so he may be entitled to it as per the contract.
 

Vash01

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Nonetheless, I expect that ticket sales will plummet, which could hurt those who participated in the film.

But there is no way around that, and I would hope that those who participated in the film understand that the issue is more important than the profit they make from the film.

If I had been planning to see the movie - which I wasn't - I would probably have decided not to.
I have seen it twice and in the light of these developments I will see it for the third time.
 

MacMadame

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I'm not going to see it again. But I think the popularity of Queen and the fact that it's a good movie are going to outweigh the issues people have with the director.

I find it interesting that people are trying to bring up issues in the past of the director of Green Book that happened over 30 years ago.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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The BAFTA awards are this weekend. This is an important predictor of Oscar because the British Academy has a lot of overlap with the American membership. Some times they are off-base in having winners that don't match Oscar's but often times they do match.

I wonder if Olivia Colman will win Best Actress here. She's a past BAFTA winner, was well-known by Brits, and is now on the bud of being internationally known. She's playing a British Queen in a movie BAFTA has rewarded with a heavy load of nominations. If Colman does not win here, then the Oscar really is Glenn Close's to lose. If Colman wins here, then there's still a race for Best Actress.
 

Vash01

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I just saw it for the third time and I've known about the Singer connection/accusations long before the movie was released. I go to see it for Rami and the music.
Me too. If I didn’t like the movie, I wouldn’t see it again, regardless of the Singer situation.
 

Vash01

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Looked up the list. BAFTA and Oscar are often similar. So now I am resigned to see 'Roma' win best picture and best foreign language picture. Ridiculous! This is one of the most overrated movies. I wouldn't have it in the top 5.

TBH I don't think Alphonso Curon did the best job as director either. He may be a good director, but in making Roma, he created a gimmicky movie that did not have much of a story or flow.

M. Ali is going to win his second Oscar, it seems.

Some consolation though. Rami Malek won the best actor, despite the controversies surrounding his movie.

Blackkklansman won the adapted screenplay. There is some justice.

Colman won the best actress, as expected. That makes the Oscar in this category more interesting. My gut feeling though is that Glenn Close will win the Oscar.

I was disappointed that Free Solo won the best documentary. Somehow I didn't find it That interesting. May be because I am not into mountain climbing at all. I did enjoy gorgeous shots of the Yosemite national park though. I liked RBG and Three Identical strangers (not nominated for the Oscar) better than this.
 

Nell411

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Colman won the best actress, as expected. That makes the Oscar in this category more interesting. My gut feeling though is that Glenn Close will win the Oscar.

I was disappointed that Free Solo won the best documentary. Somehow I didn't find it That interesting. May be because I am not into mountain climbing at all. I did enjoy gorgeous shots of the Yosemite national park though. I liked RBG and Three Identical strangers (not nominated for the Oscar) better than this.
I kind of expected Olivia Colman to win the BAFTA because of how loved she is in England (deservedly so). But it definitely makes things more interesting heading into the Oscars in 2 weeks. I'm so glad Supergirl isn't airing on Oscars night. I'd go crazy trying to watch Supergirl while also tracking Oscar winners.

I have a friend who's just getting into mountain climbing and she loved it but also spent some of her time watching it hiding in her sweater. She called it absurd and amazing. I promised her I would watch it when it hits home release.
 

Vash01

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I have a friend who's just getting into mountain climbing and she loved it but also spent some of her time watching it hiding in her sweater. She called it absurd and amazing. I promised her I would watch it when it hits home release.
It certainly was daring. I am not particularly adventurous, so I respect such people. They are a different breed. I just didn't feel that it was the best documentary feature. I fell in love with 'Three identical strangers' and it is not even nominated for the Oscars. I also liked RBG.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I'll be rooting for Minding the Gap myself, but I wouldn't be unhappy if RBG pulls off a win. I still haven't seen the other nominees in that category so I can't say if any of the other films will be deserving or not (according to me obvs).
 

Vash01

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Saw the Oscar nominated Live action short films today. All were good. Hard to choose but I would vote for Fauve (Canada) and Skin (USA). Spain’s ‘Mother’ felt too short and Ireland’s ‘Detainment’ felt a bit too long. Marguerite (Canada) was touching.
 
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misskarne

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Yaaaaay! Brian May and Roger Taylor just posted on instagram that Queen + Adam Lambert will be performing at the Oscars! (Even gave us a hint as to what one of the songs might be. Or I might be just too hopeful because I flove Tear It Up.) (Also I love when they synchronised post. Fifty years of friendship :D)
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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After watching BlacKKKlansman and Can You Ever Forgive Me? recently, I have two thoughts:

I really watch Richard E. Grant to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor. He'll probably lose to Mahershala Ali for Green Book but Grant was extraordinary, especially in the final scenes. I also think Adam Driver is a worthy nominee.

I watched all the Best Actress nominees, and I think it's clear that Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, and Melissa McCarthy are a few cuts above Lady Gaga who I would rank above Yalizta Aparicio who I'm still not convinced gave an acting performance no matter how genuine and sincere she was in Roma. I'd be happy if any one of Close, Colman, and McCarthy win though sentimentally I want Close to win.

Out of the Best Pic nominees I've seen, I'd ranked them:

1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. BlacKKKlansman
---------------------------
4. A Star is Born
5. Black Panther
6. Green Book
---------------------------

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (my personal WTF nomination)

I haven't seen Vice. I hate to admit this but I think Green Book, which was already down a few notches after I initially watched it, went down a bit further after I've seen BlacKKKlansman since both deal with race relations in the U.S., but I think one movie totally got it right while the other one I admit was for an audience that was not me. I put lines where I felt the quality dipped enough to separate them into tiers.
 

Vash01

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Looking at the entire 24-year SAG history for correlation with Oscar:

Best Actor:
Only 5 times has the SAG winner not won the Oscar, and one of those 5 was Benicio del Toro, who won the Oscar for the same role in the supporting category (Traffic). That means 19/24 times they're the exact same (20/24 if you count Benicio). That's an 83% accuracy rate.

Best Actress:
Only 6 times has the SAG winner not won the Oscar. At 18/24, that's 75% accuracy. Though Kate Winslet won the SAG for supporting actress, going on to win the Oscar for lead actress for the same role (The Reader), so we can give it 19/24 (79%)

Supporting Actor:
Less accurate. They have not matched up 9 times, which at 15/24 gives 62.5% accuracy. One of those 9 was Benicio (who won best actor SAG) so we can give it 16/24, or 67%. Even with the lower percentage, I still think Mahershala is the likely frontrunner.

Best Picture:
12/24 wins. So exactly 50% accuracy here. I honestly have no idea what to expect with this one either.

Not doing supporting actress, since Emily Blunt won't get the Oscar.

Also, they didn't show it on the broadcast, but Black Panther also won the SAG for best stunt ensemble. It beat Infinity War, Ant Man and the Wasp, Mission Impossible, and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.
The TV stunt ensemble went to GLOW, defeating Daredevil, Jack Ryan, The Walking Dead, and Westworld.
The SAG Best ensemble award is not quite a Best
Picture award in either the Oscars or the golden Globes. The ensemble award, as I interpret it, is still an acting award, rather than a picture award. The latter is much more all encompassing. So I don’t expect those two to match.

You are spot on about the four acting awards, but I would have liked to see your prediction for supporting actress, even though Blunt could not be a part of it.
 

misskarne

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An observation:

When I flew home I watched Bohemian Rhapsody again on the long-haul flight. I sat there watching all the credits, enjoying the music (but also looking to see if the cameos were all credited so I could see if any have been missed so far; none of them were so I think the eagle-eyed Queen fans got them all). When the credits ended, it came up with a single line on the black screen about how hundreds of people spent hours and hours making this film and thanking them.

Whether this is something that happens with all Fox films, or this is a deliberate fcuk you to the people who seem to constantly refer to Bryan Singer as though he was the only one affiliated with the movie and therefore would be the only one punished if it was boycotted, who knows...?
 

Nell411

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Whether this is something that happens with all Fox films, or this is a deliberate fcuk you to the people who seem to constantly refer to Bryan Singer as though he was the only one affiliated with the movie and therefore would be the only one punished if it was boycotted, who knows...?
That happens on a lot of movies. I've sat through a lot of movies for post credits scenes so it is definitely a thing. Not on every movie necessarily, but on a lot of them.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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An observation:
Whether this is something that happens with all Fox films, or this is a deliberate fcuk you to the people who seem to constantly refer to Bryan Singer as though he was the only one affiliated with the movie and therefore would be the only one punished if it was boycotted, who knows...?
That's a standard thank you message that is found in many films near the end of the credits. I would say more the rest the post but I'll just leave it alone as I think I said what I had to say on this subject including how Singer himself is financially benefiting from every ticket sale and repeat sale to the tune of over 40 million and counting as I don't want this thread derailed any further about Bryan Singer. I don't mind talking about the movie's qualities though especially in context for the awards it's up for this Sunday.
 

Vash01

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When I saw BR for the third time (last Thursday, that is five days ago), before the movie started, Rami came on the screen to thank everyone. In a coupke of other movies this year the director or producer came on the screen to say thank you before the movie started. This seems like a new trend....or was it there earlier?
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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Looking at some industry precursors:

Producer's Guild of America: Green Book
Director's Guild of America: Roma
Screen Actor's Guild ensemble: Black Panther
Screen Actor's Guild Actor: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Screen Actor's Guild Actress: Glenn Close - The Wife
Screen Actor's Guild Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place
Screen Actor's Guild Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Writer's Guild of America Original Screenplay: Eighth Grade
Writer's Guild of America Adapted: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
American Cinema Editors Drama: Bohemian Rhapsody
American Cinema Editors Comedy: The Favourite
American Society of Cinematographers: Cold War
Cinema Audio Society: Bohemian Rhapsody
Motion Picture Sound Editors: Bohemian Rhapsody

In terms of the big ones, there seems to be no one movie that dominated the precursors. BR won three industry awards in editing (drama) and the sound awards (I thought the mixing win was a weird one as I felt the dialogue scenes and music scenes were not at a consistent volume but it seems the music scenes were what were being rewarded). Roma lost cinematography, and is not nominated for Editing, which is a real weak point for that film to win Best Pic. However, Green Book lost Screenplay to non-nominated Eighth Grade which shows a lack of support there and The Favourite wasn't eligible at WGA but was nominated for an Oscar, so I can see it beating Green Book there.
 
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Kasey

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After seeing "Star is born" last night for the last of the Oscar nominated movies, my personal rankings (and yes, we are all so unique!)

Top tier: The Favourite, Green Book, Blackkklansman
Just below: Black Panther
Next: Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice
Nearly WTF land: Star is Born
Total WTF land: Roma
 

Vash01

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After seeing "Star is born" last night for the last of the Oscar nominated movies, my personal rankings (and yes, we are all so unique!)

Top tier: The Favourite, Green Book, Blackkklansman
Just below: Black Panther
Next: Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice
Nearly WTF land: Star is Born
Total WTF land: Roma
I like the way you created tiers, instead of ranking them 1,2,3.... which is hard to do in close races.

My tiers would be like this ( though I had already published my rankings):

Top tier: Bohemian Rhapsody, Greenbook, Blackkklansman.

Middle: A star is born, Vice, Roma

Bottom: Black Panther, The Favourite
 

Vash01

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I
Looking at some industry precursors:

Producer's Guild of America: Green Book
Director's Guild of America: Roma
Screen Actor's Guild ensemble: Black Panther
Screen Actor's Guild Actor: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Screen Actor's Guild Actress: Glenn Close - The Wife
Screen Actor's Guild Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place
Screen Actor's Guild Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Writer's Guild of America Original Screenplay: Eighth Grade
Writer's Guild of America Adapted: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
American Cinema Editors Drama: Bohemian Rhapsody
American Cinema Editors Comedy: The Favourite
American Society of Cinematographers: Cold War
Cinema Audio Society: Bohemian Rhapsody
Motion Picture Sound Editors: Bohemian Rhapsody

In terms of the big ones, there seems to be no one movie that dominated the precursors. BR won three industry awards in editing (drama) and the sound awards (I thought the mixing win was a weird one as I felt the dialogue scenes and music scenes were not at a consistent volume but it seems the music scenes were what were being rewarded). Roma lost cinematography, and is not nominated for Editing, which is a real weak point for that film to win Best Pic. However, Green Book lost Screenplay to non-nominated Eighth Grade which shows a lack of support there and The Favourite wasn't eligible at WGA but was nominated for an Oscar, so I can see it beating Green Book there.
I am a bit surprised that Roma lost in the awards given by Cinematographers. Cold War also had good B&W cinematography but I thought Roma was slightly better. I think none of the color cinematographers were even in the running (although they were nominated). Although a B&W movie is not my preference, B&W cinematography is often really good.

One question- in the Oscars voting, does every member of the Academy in get to vote in every category? However, I think for the acting awards the actors get a larger share of the votes. Is that correct?
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I am a bit surprised that Roma lost in the awards given by Cinematographers. Cold War also had good B&W cinematography but I thought Roma was slightly better. I think none of the color cinematographers were even in the running (although they were nominated). Although a B&W movie is not my preference, B&W cinematography is often really good.

One question- in the Oscars voting, does every member of the Academy in get to vote in every category? However, I think for the acting awards the actors get a larger share of the votes. Is that correct?
After the nominations, every category gets voted on by the entire membership. The reason why people make a big deal about the Actor's Branch is because by total numbers, it's the largest branch.

NOMINATIONS VOTING PROCESS
Regular awards are presented for outstanding individual or collective film achievements in a wide variety of categories. Most categories are nominated by the members of the corresponding branch–actors nominate actors, film editors nominate film editors, etc.

However, certain categories such as Foreign Language Film and Animated Feature Film have special voting rules which can be viewed at our Rules & Eligibility page.

All voting members are eligible to select the Best Picture nominees.

Nominations voting is conducted using both paper and online ballots, with online voting being the preferred choice for the overwhelming majority of Academy members.

Voting for nominations begins in late December, and all votes are tabulated by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Nomination results are then announced at a live televised press conference in mid-January at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills.

FINAL BALLOTING PROCESS
Finals voting is also conducted online.

During finals, all Oscar categories are on the ballot for voting members.

After final ballots are tabulated, only two partners of PricewaterhouseCoopers know the results until the famous envelopes are opened onstage during the Oscars telecast.
For nominations, in certain categories, required watching by a general committee (almost jury style) selects the nominees like in Foreign Film and Documentary categories, etc.

For Best Picture with preferential ballot:

The process of counting votes for best picture isn't as simple as one might think. According to Cullinan, each voter is asked to rank the nominated films, with one being their top choice. After determining which film garnered the least number of votes, PwC employees take that title out of contention and look to see which movie each of those voters selected as their second favorite. That redistribution process continues until there are only two films remaining. The one with the biggest pile wins. "It doesn’t necessarily mean that who has the most number one votes from the beginning is ensured they win," he added. "It’s not necessarily the case, because going through this process of preferential voting, it could be that the one who started in the lead, doesn’t finish in the lead."
So they are ranked 1st (best) to 8th (worst) and points are allocated that way. However, I read that this year, they changed it so members only rank the top five.
 

Vash01

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I saw the animated short films today. There are just five nominees but they showed seven short films. Not sure why. Some had dialogues, others didn’t. I found Bao charming, Small step touching, and Afternoon tea creative with the puctures. Didn’t care much for Animal behavior. Weekends was good but a bit too repetitive. I can’t really pick a winner out of these.

The sixth movie (not nominated) was Wishing box - Gold vs food, and a man with the wishing box, and his monkey.

The seventh movie (not nominated) was ‘Tweet tweet’ (Russia).It showed a bird on a tight rope, interacting with a woman, who grows from an infant to an old lady. The bird is always there. I kind of enjoyed it. No faces, no dialogues. Just legs and the bird, with background music.


BTW we can vote on short TV for our favorite short films.


I hope they will show the short and long documentaries. I have seen just two of the nominated feature documentaries.
 
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Also, Be Kind Rewind released a new video about #OscarSoWhite and the Legacy of Halle Berry:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEberAZhZy4

I thought this was an incredibly well-reasoned and well-researched piece about looking at Hollywood's treatment of actors of color, namely black women, through the lens of the Oscars. She talks about the early systemic problems thanks to the Hayes Code that prevented actors of color from having more roles (there was a code that prevented movies from depicting interracial romance and almost EVERY Hollywood female role was some sort of romantic lead and since black women couldn't play opposite white men, no studio would make a movie about a black man and black woman as romantic leads), the history of casting them as "safe" tropes like mammys and maids, and the evolution through the 70s and such leading up to Halle Berry's win. The narrator also focuses on 9/11 and other issues drowning out Halle's historic win and how 2002 was a wholly different time than now with regard to frank discussions of race. She even says rewatching Berry's acceptance speech now, it seems she was the only one who truly understood what that win could have meant for black actresses moving forward. The narrator goes into the different takes on Halle's character in Monster's Ball within the African-American community (lots of critics) and how those more aware warned people not to get too excited about her win because "a moment is not a movement." The narrator concludes with looking at the stats of other women of color and seeing how many black actresses have been nominated for Lead Actress since.
 

screech

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One question- in the Oscars voting, does every member of the Academy in get to vote in every category? However, I think for the acting awards the actors get a larger share of the votes. Is that correct?
I always found the nomination/voting process neat (and well-explained in the post from @VIETgirlTerifa)

I have a relative who is a voting member of the Academy. He is an animator. He's never been to the actual ceremony, but he gets to vote, go to Academy events, and also has actually animated for the broadcast (one year they showed 'reaction shots' from all the animated films. He animated his film's 'reaction shot')
When it comes to nominee selection, he gets to vote for the animated films that end up being nominated for Animated Film. He doesn't get to contribute to the nominee selections for any other categories.
Once the nominations are announced, he then gets to vote for a winner in every single category, from writing, to sound editing, to director, and everything in between.

He and his wife look forward to getting, and watching, all of the screeners each year. Some years they even tell me who he voted for, and occasionally provide 'insider gossip' (I've previously mentioned on this board how he told me that voters were told 'wouldn't be nice if Heath Ledger won?' the year he was nominated, and won, for Dark Knight. They didn't tell me who, but they did say he went 'against' Academy preferences and didn't vote for Heath.)
 
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