2022-2023 Film Awards Season

Cachoo

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And I don’t want Riseborough to get personally blamed for anything. The truth was the people who campaigned for her did so because of her performance. They wouldn’t have done that for just any performance; it had to be an excellent one for them to go out on a limb and campaign like they did.
Both could be right: Riseborough was brilliant and Deadwyler was brilliant and overlooked.
 

screech

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In the past months, it had been assumed Danielle Deadwyler would be nominated (and earlier in the year, that she would be a favourite to win). I think of anyone, Andrea Riseborough's nomination led to her being locked out.
I'm also mildly surprised Michelle Williams got nominated, as I've read people speculating that she should have been up for supporting instead, and going for lead would hurt her chances.
I'm not too surprised that Ana was nominated, as though the movie was critically panned, her performance was widely praised (See Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady, with 52% on Rotten Tomatoes). And she has been receiving nominations for all the guilds - SAG, BAFTA, Globes... Plus, to be cynical, she also fits a 'diversity' criteria, as an actress from Latin America.

I haven't seen To Leslie, so I can't speak to Andrea's nomination, but I'm not fond of her campaign approach, though it seems to have worked. I'm not surprised she got the nomination with that approach, as it's the actors who nominate the actors (everyone can then vote on the winners), and since she had such actor support, it makes sense. Though if she had so much actor support, I'm surprised there was no SAG nomination...

So happy to see Stephanie Hsu got nominated. While I'm happy for Jamie Lee Curtis, it's amazed me that she's been getting nominated more than Stephanie, who to me gave a better performance in a better role.

Lead Actor still seems to be a 3-man race. I'm starting to lean towards Brendan Fraser winning, though I don't think it's clear cut. If he wins he'd be the first Canadian to win in the category (he has dual Canadian/US citizenship). If Colin Farrell wins, he'd be the only Irishman other than Daniel Day Lewis to win lead actor. If Austin wins, he will be the 5th youngest winner in the category. From the less-likely winners, like Colin, Paul Mescal would be the first non-DDL winner from Ireland. At 26 he would also be the youngest winner. Bill Nighy would be the 3rd oldest winner.
 

Jay42

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From what I’ve been reading elsewhere online, between Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis was the only one to hit all the precursor nominations so she was probably more of a potential lock for nomination than Deadwyler who missed one of them.

The biggest issue I have with Riseborough’s campaign for nomination is that it started right before the nomination voting opened and was done largely by asking a significant amount of influential white women to talk about the movie and her performance. From what I’ve seen the directors wife has a lot of connections. If Viola Davis or Danielle Deadwyler had campaigned like that they’d have been shut down so fast.

This year had the potential for the most diverse Best Lead Actress nominees ever. In a category that has only had one WoC ever win and has its first ever Asian nominee (I mean yes Merle Oberon in the 30’s but she was passing as white so know one knew until much much later) Riseborough’s campaign leaves a sour taste in my mouth.
 

Jimena

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I'm just so happy for Ke Huy Quan. It was such a great performance and he seems like such a great guy. Rooting for him and Michelle Yeoh.

And Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis.

I thought all of them were wonderful.
 

screech

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This year had the potential for the most diverse Best Lead Actress nominees ever. In a category that has only had one WoC ever win and has its first ever Asian nominee (I mean yes Merle Oberon in the 30’s but she was passing as white so know one knew until much much later) Riseborough’s campaign leaves a sour taste in my mouth.
To be fair, Michelle is the first EAST Asian nominee.

In addition to Merle, there was also Vivien Leigh (born in India and of Indian and Armenian descent), Cher (Armenian descent), Salma Hayek (Lebanese descent), Natalie Portman (Israeli).
To stretch it a bit more, Angelina Jolie has had Cambodian citizenship for almost 20 years (and was granted citizenship 3 years before her best actress nomination, having previously won supporting actress).

It still is a fairly diverse category, though. A combination of Caucasian, Latin American, and East Asian nominees, each hailing form a different country (Australia, Cuba, England, USA, Malaysia).

What I love about this year's nominees is that 16 of the 20 actors nominated are first-timers (the only previous nominees are Judd Hirsch, Angela Bassett, Michelle Williams, and Cate Blanchett).
 

VGThuy

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My fellow New Orleans East girl Hong Chau nominated for Best Supporting Actress. I thought she was robbed in 2017 for Downsizing but this is a nice redemption.

I wonder if she and Ke Huy Quan are the first Vietnamese-Americans to be nominated for acting awards.
 

Seerek

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On a positive note, I’m thrilled that Paul Mescal from Aftersun got nominated. His performance was brilliant but I thought it might have been too subtle to get a nomination.

There's definitely a "late to the party" kind of vibe with Aftersun getting recognized. Perhaps A24 will make now a push for viewers to watch it on Apple+/Prime. Even with it's very subtle, nuanced storytelling, I think the final 15-20 minutes is what clinched the nomination for Paul (not giving away spoilers).
 

screech

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Apparently the Andrea Riseborough campaign is under investigation from the Academy, as there is an 'anti-lobbying' rule that Mary McCormack (director's wife) and Jason Weinberg (Andrea's manager) may have violated.
Mary McCormack and friends emailed and called tons of members of the Academy’s actors branch, begging them to see the little-watched alcoholic drama and post online about Riseborough’s searing performance. The result: dozens of influential stars—Gwyneth, Jen, Howard, Cate, Amy Adams, Ed Norton, and many, many more—sang her praises and helped win her the coveted nomination.

It's against the rule to directly lobby to voters. Academy Rule 10 states:
Contacting Academy members directly and in a manner outside of the scope of these rules to promote a film or achievement for Academy Award consideration is expressly forbidden.

But is this in violation?
So, how much contact is “lobbying”? Lots of contenders skirt this rule with casual contacts or invites to screenings and such. But McCormack, the mastermind of the effort along with her and Riseborough’s manager Jason Weinberg, was relentless in soliciting support, and she did so arguably at the direction of the To Leslie campaign. Here’s a quote from an email of hers that’s going around: “If you’re willing to post every day between now and Jan 17th, that would be amazing! But anything is helpful, so please do whatever makes you comfortable. And what’s more comfortable than posting about a movie every day!”

A few years ago a nomination was rescinded due to lobbying.
In 2014, the Academy actually rescinded a nomination for composer Bruce Broughton and his song “Alone Yet Not Alone” from the tiny movie of the same name because he was found to have “improperly lobbied” more than 70 members of the music branch via email. “I indulged in the simplest grassroots campaign and it went against me when the song started getting attention,” Broughton complained to THR at the time. “I got taken down by competition that had months of promotion and advertising behind them. I simply asked people to find the song and consider it.”

Frances Fisher lobbying for her may hurt Andrea, and may actually lead to penalization for Frances herself.
Rule 11, which concerns “References to Other Nominees” and carries a one-year suspension of membership for first-time offenders:
a. Ads, mailings, websites, social media (including Facebook and Twitter) or any other forms of public communication by anyone directly associated with an eligible film attempting to cast a negative or derogatory light on a competing film or achievement will not be tolerated;
b. In particular, any tactic that singles out “the competition” by name or title is expressly forbidden.

Fisher, a veteran actress who pops up at a lot of Academy events, has been relentlessly promoting Riseborough on her feeds. That’s fine, but she went so far as to post a slick slideshow of a recent Q&A event on Instagram with the caption: “To my fellow #Actors in @TheAcademy…. #AndreaRiseborough can secure an #Oscar nomination if 218 (out of 1,302) actors in the Actors branch nominate her in first position for #BestActress….Seems to be that Viola, Michelle, Danielle & Cate are a lock for their outstanding work.”

I doubt Andrea's nomination will be rescinded, but I do expect that there will be more focus on the rules next year, as if they do nothing, Academy members can expect to receive relentless calls, emails, DMs, etc, for campaigning, which should not be permitted.
 

VGThuy

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I think the key is whether they find a connection between Fisher and McCormack/the film and what the investigation (if any) reveals with regards to just exactly how the people behind the film campaigned and who they reached out too. This was clearly not just a "grassroots campaign" from a little movie with little connections the way they made it out to be, and it was not just social media posts on IG and Twitter that helped Riseborough get a nomination.

Even if Fisher gets off on a technicality because she's not "directly" associated with the film, her behavior in naming other contenders for nominations and telling people to rank "locks" low on the ballot really stinks.
 

screech

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Even disregarding Fisher's actions, Mary McCormack's are a bit sketchy, personally reaching out to members of the Academy, asking them to promote Andrea.
There's always politicking going on with the Oscars. My relative who is a voting member has said that when Heath Ledger won, there was a lot of 'oh, wouldn't it be nice if he won posthumously?' but that wasn't as blatant as this seems to be.

Like I mentioned, I don't foresee her nomination being rescinded, but I do foresee tightening of the rules. Academy members should not have to deal with all the unsolicited calls, emails, etc that would come if everyone in the future decided to go this route.

I also think that if her nomination IS rescinded, it will just be a category with 4 nominees instead of them 'upgrading' the 'runner up'.

I do feel a bit bad for Andrea, as while she has benefited, it doesn't seem like she's the person who spearheaded this campaign - seems like it was Mary McCormack who took the initiative. However Andrea is receiving most of the backlash.
 

screech

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Academy won't revoke Andrea Riseborough's 'To Leslie' Oscar nom despite backlas, but "Tactics are being addressed"

I never thought her nomination would be revoked and always figured the Academy would review its rules, so this is 100%expected to me.
What worries me (for lack of a better term) is that there are some Academy members who have said they're going to vote for her basically out of spite now. I wonder how many people are going to do so? What will happen if she ends up winning? Will there be an invisible asterisk next to her name and win? I also wonder if she and Cate will split the (for lack of a better term) 'white vote' and help Michelle Yeoh eke out a win?

While nothing has been said that I'm aware of, I do think that Frances Fisher should receive some kind of penalty, as IMO her posts were definitely in violation of the rules. If I were in charge, I'd ban her from voting this year (at minimum), and would ban her from any Academy events (screeners, parties, etc) for a period. If she were to make any more posts regarding Andrea, To Leslie, The Academy, the situation, etc, I would extend her penalty. But again, this is just my opinion.
 

screech

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So the BAFTAs have brought some clear frontrunners now, with Austin Butler and Cate Blanchett winning in the lead acting categories.
Even though they didn't win the BAFTAs, I still think Ke Huy Quan and Angela Bassett are the favourites to win supporting at the Oscars.
The SAG awards next week will be the last 'major' show before the Oscars, If Austin and Cate win there, I think they're likely to win the 'big one'. I still think Brendan might get the SAG, though...
 

annie720

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I saw the Oscar-nominated short films over the weekend in both the live-action and documentary categories. My husband and I saw them at two different independent theatres outside of Philadelphia but many of them can be streamed easily from home. Though we have favorites, I can't say that one or two particular ones jumped out at me as ones that deserve to win. I felt they were all worth seeing. We were pretty impressed at the turnout at the theatres. Almost a full house at one fairly large place.

This article gives some information on how to view these films.
 

VGThuy

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Everything Everywhere all at Once won the Director’s Guild Award on Feb. 18, 2023 and won the Producer’s Guild on yesterday. Tonight is SAG. Let’s see if they win that and then we’ll see what happens with the Writer’s Guild on March 5, 2023.
 

Allskate

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The SAG Awards have just started streaming on Netflix's YouTube channel, which is available to all. I haven't seen and liked that many of the nominations, but I might watch while I make dinner and take care of some other things.

I'm rooting for "The Bear" and Jeremy Allen White.
 

VGThuy

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This was honestly the best award show I’ve seen in a while. No commercials is the way to go. That extended James Hong moment turned tribute when EEAAO won Ensemble was EVERYTHING. If this was on tv, he would have been cut off.

Yeoh looked like she was going to physically break down. She probably thought Cate was going to get it.

Best Actor is still alive as a competitive race with Fraser winning.

Huy Ke Quan winning recalibrates the season after his loss at BAFTA.

Best Supporting Actress is WIDE OPEN with Bassett winning the Globe, Condon winning BAFTA, and Jamie Lee Curtis winning SAG. I’m hoping a shocking Marcia Gay Harden at the 2000 Oscars result happens at Oscar (For Hong Chau).
 
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VGThuy

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Finally saw Banshees of Inisherin and I can’t say I liked it. I felt like a much lower level Coens Brothers film to me. I did like Colin Farrell a lot, though. Barry Keoghan added much needed natural energy despite his character probably needing the most non-natural performance. He seemed to be the only one who knew how to deliver the lines as written and everyone else got better when they shared a scene with him. It worked for Farrell though given how his character is.
 

screech

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I didn't particularly like Banshees. And I didn't find Barry all that convincing - I spent half the movie trying to figure out if his character was supposed to have an intellectual disability. Colin and Brendan were fantastic - fun fact, Brendan did all his own fiddle playing!

So things are still interesting for the Oscars, however I do still think that Cate and Austin are the frontrunners for lead acting, along with Ke for supporting actor. However, the SAGs are (usually) the best predictor of the Oscar winners, as they have a bunch of the same voting members...
Not sure what to think for supporting actress - Angela won the non-guild awards, however with Kerry winning the BAFTA and Jamie Lee the SAG, it's an interesting category. Personally, I'd choose Stephanie Hsu, but unfortunately I don't get a say.

Right now their odds are:
Actress: Cate at 17/5 and Michelle at 71/20. Close, but with Cate having an edge.
Actor: Austin at 7/2 and Brendan at 71/20. Incredibly close.
S. Actress: Angela at 17/5, Kerry at 37/10, Jamie Lee at 4/1
S. Actor: Ke at 31/10. Brendan and Barry next at 4/1

For best picture they have EEAAO at 6/1, with Banshees next at 15/2.
 

Tesla

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I would swoon if Michelle Yeoh and Brendan Frasier won. :swoon: I've loved Michelle Yeoh since Tomorrow Never Dies and Brendan Frazier in The Mummy. That said, the Elvis guy and Cate Blanchett are totally going to win. :blah: I will be beyond thrilled if Ke wins the Oscar. Goonies for the win!
 

VGThuy

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I didn't particularly like Banshees. And I didn't find Barry all that convincing - I spent half the movie trying to figure out if his character was supposed to have an intellectual disability. Colin and Brendan were fantastic - fun fact, Brendan did all his own fiddle playing!
IMO, that had less to do with his acting and more to do with the bad writing making it uneven. I think I'm just not a fan of McDonagh's writing in that it's wildly inconsistent (and not in a good/purposeful way) and the characters only act in ways to serve the "clever" turns he wrote into the plot. Mix that with what I think is his inability to really capture the right tone that he's going for to execute his dialogue, I always end up feeling I sort of wasted my time watching his films as I don't really get anything from them.
 

sk8pics

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Finally, people who agree with me on the Banshees! :lol:

Michele Yeoh was amazing in Star Trek: Discovery. Glad she is being recognized for her work.
 

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