Movie Awards Season 2018-19 Road to Oscar

screech

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Looking at the entire 24-year SAG history for correlation with Oscar:

Best Actor:
Only 5 times has the SAG winner not won the Oscar, and one of those 5 was Benicio del Toro, who won the Oscar for the same role in the supporting category (Traffic). That means 19/24 times they're the exact same (20/24 if you count Benicio). That's an 83% accuracy rate.

Best Actress:
Only 6 times has the SAG winner not won the Oscar. At 18/24, that's 75% accuracy. Though Kate Winslet won the SAG for supporting actress, going on to win the Oscar for lead actress for the same role (The Reader), so we can give it 19/24 (79%)

Supporting Actor:
Less accurate. They have not matched up 9 times, which at 15/24 gives 62.5% accuracy. One of those 9 was Benicio (who won best actor SAG) so we can give it 16/24, or 67%. Even with the lower percentage, I still think Mahershala is the likely frontrunner.

Best Picture:
12/24 wins. So exactly 50% accuracy here. I honestly have no idea what to expect with this one either.

Not doing supporting actress, since Emily Blunt won't get the Oscar.

Also, they didn't show it on the broadcast, but Black Panther also won the SAG for best stunt ensemble. It beat Infinity War, Ant Man and the Wasp, Mission Impossible, and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.
The TV stunt ensemble went to GLOW, defeating Daredevil, Jack Ryan, The Walking Dead, and Westworld.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I am so happy to see Glenn Close getting closer to her much deserved Best Actress award. I personally would maybe vote for Olivia Colman but Close would possibly steal a vote away from me as I felt she was sublime in The Wife.
 

Nell411

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I am so happy to see Glenn Close getting closer to her much deserved Best Actress award. I personally would maybe vote for Olivia Colman but Close would possibly steal a vote away from me as I felt she was sublime in The Wife.
I haven't seen either movie yet (and don't know when I will because the internet hasn't been able to tell me when The Favourite will be out on DVD yet and The Wife isn't out until Tuesday) but I love them both so I'm good with either one winning. It is disgraceful Glenn Close hasn't won yet though so I do kind of lean towards her winning over Colman.
 

Vash01

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I haven't seen either movie yet (and don't know when I will because the internet hasn't been able to tell me when The Favourite will be out on DVD yet and The Wife isn't out until Tuesday) but I love them both so I'm good with either one winning. It is disgraceful Glenn Close hasn't won yet though so I do kind of lean towards her winning over Colman.
Between Colman and Close it is apples and oranges. Colman has the more fierce/dramatic character to portray. Close has a more subdued personality to portray. I lean toward Close. Her role is not as dramatic as Colman's but she makes it deeper and interesting. I am fine with her win, but I am secretly hoping for Lady Gaga to steal the Oscar. :)
 

Vash01

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I started watching Black Panther on dvd but then I felt that it needs to be seen on the big screen. So I stopped watching it. I am hoping that one of the local theaters will bring it back and I could see it on the big screen.

If last two years are any indication, the movie with the most Oscars does not win the Best Picture. In both years the BP has been a surprise. So Black Panther has a good chance of winning. There is no clear fron5 runner other than Roma this year. I will take any movie over Roma for the best picture Oscar.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I started watching Black Panther on dvd but then I felt that it needs to be seen on the big screen. So I stopped watching it. I am hoping that one of the local theaters will bring it back and I could see it on the big screen.

If last two years are any indication, the movie with the most Oscars does not win the Best Picture. In both years the BP has been a surprise. So Black Panther has a good chance of winning. There is no clear fron5 runner other than Roma this year. I will take any movie over Roma for the best picture Oscar.
Not me, from what I've seen, only two movies should be in conversation for Best Picture and it's Roma and The Favourite. I haven't seen Blackkklansman yet. I did see some of the others and I thought they were just basic and some will be forgotten next year. Not Black Panther though since it's a global phenomenon and will have sequels. I also think people love Queen so much that Bohemian Rhapsody will be rewatched a lot by fans.
 

Vash01

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Not me, from what I've seen, only two movies should be in conversation for Best Picture and it's Roma and The Favourite. I haven't seen Blackkklansman yet. I did see some of the others and I thought they were just basic and some will be forgotten next year. Not Black Panther though since it's a global phenomenon and will have sequels. I also think people love Queen so much that Bohemian Rhapsody will be rewatched a lot by fans.
Blackkklansman is a very good movie. True story, deals with a social issue, well developed and acted. Despite the seriousness of the issue there is plenty of humor.

I am disappointed that Washington didn’t get nominated for best actor. This is a very tough year for actors though because four were sure to be nominated, and only the 5th spot was available.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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Blackkklansman is a very good movie. True story, deals with a social issue, well developed and acted. Despite the seriousness of the issue there is plenty of humor.

I am disappointed that Washington didn’t get nominated for best actor. This is a very tough year for actors though because four were sure to be nominated, and only the 5th spot was available.
Yeah, it was crowded this year. Someone like Ethan Hawke who swept the major critics awards wasn't even in the conversation for the televised awards. I hope it's a sign that films are coming back in a way TV did when people speak about the "Golden Age of Television".
 

skatingguy

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Regarding Mahersala Ali's performance being in the Supporting Actor category, I think it's important to remember that for most awards the actor, or someone acting on their behalf, submits their work for nomination and when they do that they pick the category. Most of the awards don't make that decision, though the Oscars are an exception where the Academy members pick the nominations in each category and can consider the performance as either supporting or leading.
 

Nell411

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Regarding Mahersala Ali's performance being in the Supporting Actor category, I think it's important to remember that for most awards the actor, or someone acting on their behalf, submits their work for nomination and when they do that they pick the category. Most of the awards don't make that decision, though the Oscars are an exception where the Academy members pick the nominations in each category and can consider the performance as either supporting or leading.
I believe it's actually the distributor/production company that chooses where the actors go nomination wise because they are the ones usually running the campaign for that movie. Harvey Weinstein ran the campaigns for The Weinstein Company. The actors as far as I know don't have a lot to do with that. That said I don't remember exactly what happened that led Kate Winslet to switch from Supporting Actress to Lead for The Reader after The Golden Globes that year.
 

skatingguy

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I believe it's actually the distributor/production company that chooses where the actors go nomination wise because they are the ones usually running the campaign for that movie. Harvey Weinstein ran the campaigns for The Weinstein Company. The actors as far as I know don't have a lot to do with that. That said I don't remember exactly what happened that led Kate Winslet to switch from Supporting Actress to Lead for The Reader after The Golden Globes that year.
It depends on who submits the nomination. I'm sure with Weinstein movies it was done by The Weinstein Company as they were one of the most aggressive campaigners for awards.
 

Parsley Sage

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Regarding Mahersala Ali's performance being in the Supporting Actor category, I think it's important to remember that for most awards the actor, or someone acting on their behalf, submits their work for nomination and when they do that they pick the category. Most of the awards don't make that decision, though the Oscars are an exception where the Academy members pick the nominations in each category and can consider the performance as either supporting or leading.
Even for the Oscars, the studio submits the actor in either the lead or supporting category.
http://www.universalpicturesawards.com/film/green-book/
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I think the actor’s branch who are in charge of nominating the actors ultimately decide which category someone belongs in through their individual ballots from their thousands of members. I think with that many people, they just go with whichever category the studio campaigns the actor as belonging in even though theoretically nothing stops them from going against the studio’s wish as what happened with Kate Winslet when she was in supporting actress all season for The Reader and then ended up competing in Best Actress at the Oscars thus allowing the Best Supporting Actress race to be competitive while killing the suspense for Best Actress.

I think one performance can get enough votes in both categories to be nominated in both and whichever category shows up in more ballots is where that actor ends up as he/she won’t be allowed to be nominated in lead and supporting for the same performance (I think that happened once in the first decade of the Oscars and they changed the rules since that happened to make sure that didn’t happen again).
 

skatingguy

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Even for the Oscars, the studio submits the actor in either the lead or supporting category.
http://www.universalpicturesawards.com/film/green-book/
I think that's promotional material to try to convince Academy voters to choose to nominate people in particular category - a strategy to ensure as many nominations as possible - but the Oscar regulations, unlike other awards, says that voters can nominate an actor for either supporting or leading category.
 

Vash01

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How to watch Oscar nominated movies:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/29/movies/black-panther-free.html

Black Panther will be shown for free at select AMC theaters from Feb.1-7. Two shows each day 4 pm & 7 pm.
I made my reservation for Monday, Feb. 4 at 4 pm. Hoping to avoid the crowd. Seating is first come first serve and they don't guarantee a seat. They don't allow late arrivals.

I will need to go one hour before the show. I am excited.

Here is the link to get free tickets.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/featur...k-panther-at-amc-theatres-20190129-story.html

Scroll down till you see weticketit.com/blackpanther

You will see the locations by state, city, and specific AMC theaters.
 
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Kasey

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^^^Bah, the only tickets in Nevada are Las Vegas! Oh well, I have my Oscar week movie pass through my movie club, so will be seeing it the week before the Oscars at least.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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Here's a good video from Vanity Fair explaining how the Oscar race goes these days from Film Festivals to nomination to choosing a winner:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjhoSv4Ood0

It explains the differences between the festivals, when they take place, who and how many attend, how marketing works, how long "Oscar season" is, how many people are in the Academy, how each branch nominates, and how Best Picture is voted differently from every other category (preferential ballot aka very 6.0 judging system).

Here's an Adam Ruins Everything video about the important role money plays in campaigning for awards and how far some studios go to win awards:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhfxo8xPNGU
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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The Hollywood Reporter has videos up of their annual roundtables:

Actress Roundtable with Glenn Close; Lady Gaga; Regina King; Kathryn Hahn (in the underawarded Private Life); Nicole Kidman; and Rachel Weisz:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibdhO-h0xP4

Actors Roundtable with Chadwick Boseman; Timothee Chalamet; Mahershala Ali; Viggo Mortensen; Hugh Jackman; and Richard E. Grant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kkag-jVdt8

Directors Roundtable with Ryan Coogler ('Black Panther'); Yorgos Lanthimos ('The Favourite'); Alfonso Cuarón ('Roma'); Spike Lee ('BlacKkKlansman'); Marielle Heller ('Can You Ever Forgive Me?'); and Bradley Cooper ('A Star is Born'):

https://youtu.be/zy-RE76XDgM
 

MacMadame

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Since I don't even go to the movies and haven't seen any of these films, I guess I don't really have an opinion about what the Best Film (or cast or whatever it was) should be but ... Black Panther? Really? Isn't that kinda like a super-hero movie? I haven't seen it.
People have mentioned that it's better than other super-hero movies. I would say it's more than that. It transcends the genre IMO.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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Speaking of super hero movies that transcends the genre to become award-worthy, I wish Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse got mid 2000s to late 2000s Pixar-like love from the Academy.
 

Vash01

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I just got back from watching Black Panther. So now I have seen all the Best picture nominated films. I also saw A star is born for the second time and liked it much more. The first time I found it boring, but now I feel it deserves the BP nomination and Bradley Cooper should have received the Best Director nomination.

So I redid my list of who I would like to see win. There are more than one in some categories. It means I am OK with any/either of them winning. Again, started Vietgrl's original list to make it easy for myself. I only Bolded my picks, so you can still see the full list of nominees.

Oscar nominations:

https://deadline.com/2019/01/oscar-nominations-2019-academy-award-nominees-list-1202538943/

Best Picture

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Actress in a Leading Role

Yalitza Aparicio
Glenn Close
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Melissa McCarthy

Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale
Bradley Cooper

Willem Dafoe
Rami Malek
Viggo Mortensen

Directing

BlacKkKlansman
Cold War
The Favourite
Roma
Vice

Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice


Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs (Did not see)
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Original Screenplay

The Favourite
First Reformed (did not see)
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Cinematography

Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

Production Design

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Costume Design

The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs (Did not see)
Black Panther
The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen Of Scots (Did not see)

Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Foreign Language Film

Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away (Did not see)
Roma
Shoplifters

Documentary Feature

Free Solo
Hale County (did not see)
Minding the Gap (did not see)
Of Fathers and Sons (did not see)
RBG

Documentary Short Subject (Did not see any of these)

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End Of Sentence

Animated Feature Film (I only saw Spiderman: into Spider-verse)

Incredibles 2
Isle Of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Animated Short Film (Did not see any of these)

Animal Behavior
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Live Action Short Film (Did not see any)

Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

Original Score

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle Of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Original Song

All The Stars, Black Panther
I’ll Fight, RBG
The Place Where Lost Things Go, MPR
Shallow
When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings, Buster Scruggs

Visual Effects (I saw only First Man, so I picked it; others could be better)

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Makeup and Hairstyling

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Sound Editing

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

Sound Mixing

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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Anonymous Oscar voter speaks to Michael Musto:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/anony...t-green-book-and-bohemian-rhapsody?ref=scroll

Also, one thing I've been wondering about this race is how Spike Lee is reacting to Green Book. From insiders, Lee dislikes that film and every time he does one of those director's roundtables, when director of Green Book Peter Farrelly speaks, Spike just zones out and stares into space.
 
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Spikefan

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My impression is, his movies address relevant issues to current times. Even though BlacKkKlansman takes place in the 70’s the theme is still relevant today, as are some of the historical figures (David Duke). I know several people that get frustrated that racial movies only win if they depict the issues as “in the past”. My guess would be Spike Lee has that perception and he may not be wrong.

Edit: Decided to Google Spike Lee and Driving Miss Daisy: https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywoo...riving-miss-daisy-over-do-the-right-thing/amp

Still, this can’t help but feel, to some extent, like history repeating itself: if Spike Lee exits the ceremony empty-handed this year, he will have lost out yet again to a movie about two people solving America’s race problem in a car. Green Book isn’t Driving Miss Daisy, but, as Mark Harris tells me, “Driving Miss Daisy fit the template for the Academy in 1989, which is in many ways the template for 2019: prestige film directed from an award-winning play, starring a major actor and a major actress, about a subject that people could get behind. The thing that’s changed is, Green Book appeals to a definite and substantial niche of the Academy. But in 1989 that was the Academy.”
 
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VIETgrlTerifa

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Because they didn't think the Singer allegations would be a big deal and were probably hoping it would just be ignored or that people would separate Singer from the movie even though he was the director for nearly the entire film and thus let GLAAD nominate the movie without honoring Singer in some way. On another note, it looks like he stands to make about $40 million from the profits of Bohemian Rhapsody.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/h...nds-make-40-million-bohemian-rhapsody-1181130
 

Vash01

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Yes, thankyou. Can we please suspend him without wrecking the hard work and dedication of everyone else on that movie? (Yes, I'm still salty it lost that GLAAD nomination. Why even let it be nominated if you were just going to disqualify it? Jerks.)
They should not have punished everyone else due to the allegations of misdeeds of one person.
 

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