screech
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Looking at the entire 24-year SAG history for correlation with Oscar:
Best Actor:
Only 5 times has the SAG winner not won the Oscar, and one of those 5 was Benicio del Toro, who won the Oscar for the same role in the supporting category (Traffic). That means 19/24 times they're the exact same (20/24 if you count Benicio). That's an 83% accuracy rate.
Best Actress:
Only 6 times has the SAG winner not won the Oscar. At 18/24, that's 75% accuracy. Though Kate Winslet won the SAG for supporting actress, going on to win the Oscar for lead actress for the same role (The Reader), so we can give it 19/24 (79%)
Supporting Actor:
Less accurate. They have not matched up 9 times, which at 15/24 gives 62.5% accuracy. One of those 9 was Benicio (who won best actor SAG) so we can give it 16/24, or 67%. Even with the lower percentage, I still think Mahershala is the likely frontrunner.
Best Picture:
12/24 wins. So exactly 50% accuracy here. I honestly have no idea what to expect with this one either.
Not doing supporting actress, since Emily Blunt won't get the Oscar.
Also, they didn't show it on the broadcast, but Black Panther also won the SAG for best stunt ensemble. It beat Infinity War, Ant Man and the Wasp, Mission Impossible, and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.
The TV stunt ensemble went to GLOW, defeating Daredevil, Jack Ryan, The Walking Dead, and Westworld.
Best Actor:
Only 5 times has the SAG winner not won the Oscar, and one of those 5 was Benicio del Toro, who won the Oscar for the same role in the supporting category (Traffic). That means 19/24 times they're the exact same (20/24 if you count Benicio). That's an 83% accuracy rate.
Best Actress:
Only 6 times has the SAG winner not won the Oscar. At 18/24, that's 75% accuracy. Though Kate Winslet won the SAG for supporting actress, going on to win the Oscar for lead actress for the same role (The Reader), so we can give it 19/24 (79%)
Supporting Actor:
Less accurate. They have not matched up 9 times, which at 15/24 gives 62.5% accuracy. One of those 9 was Benicio (who won best actor SAG) so we can give it 16/24, or 67%. Even with the lower percentage, I still think Mahershala is the likely frontrunner.
Best Picture:
12/24 wins. So exactly 50% accuracy here. I honestly have no idea what to expect with this one either.
Not doing supporting actress, since Emily Blunt won't get the Oscar.
Also, they didn't show it on the broadcast, but Black Panther also won the SAG for best stunt ensemble. It beat Infinity War, Ant Man and the Wasp, Mission Impossible, and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.
The TV stunt ensemble went to GLOW, defeating Daredevil, Jack Ryan, The Walking Dead, and Westworld.