2024 Four Continents/Junior Worlds/Worlds US Team Speculation

[shuilee]

Are Efimova and Parkman both ineligible to compete at 2024 Worlds? Does anyone know the reason why they can't compete internationally?

Will they finally be eligible to compete in 2024-2025 Grand Prix season?

 

[Amy L]

Are Efimova and Parkman both ineligible to compete at 2024 Worlds? Does anyone know the reason why they can't compete internationally?

Will they finally be eligible to compete in 2024-2025 Grand Prix season?

Efimova competed for Germany last season and Parkman competed for Georgia. They do not have releases to compete internationally. Efimova should have hers soon but it's still a question mark for Parkman.

 

[Sarah]

Sarah perhaps, Josephine not so much. USFS doesn't put as much stock in having one great comp at Nats compared to the entire season's results. Josephine was such a hot mess last summer she WD from/had her JGP assignment pulled, depending on the gossip you choose to believe.

Wasn’t that Soho Lee? Josephine competed in Austria and finished 8th.

 

[Karen-W]

Efimova's last competition representing Germany was Worlds 2023. German Fed has already said they'll release her, so she'll be good to go next season.

Parkman's last competition representing Georgia was GP Espoo 2022 so, theoretically, they could compete if he had his release. Since they partnered up last May, my guess is the Georgian fed won't release him until a year after the request was made by the USFS which would explain why they can't compete internationally at all this season. Hopefully they'll be set by the start of the season too.

 

[Karen-W]

Aren’t you thinking of Soho? Josephine competed at the second JGP in Austria

Wasn’t that Soho Lee? Josephine competed in Austria and finished 8th.

My bad. Too many Lee girls at the Junior level!!!

 

[kwanfan1818]

I wonder if the ISU points she’ll miss out by not going could have propelled into a better start position for the world short program?

There are the skaters who can pass her in WS and those whom she might have passed had she competed.

Right now, Glenn's WS 16. Four skaters above her aren't currently assigned to Worlds (Y. Kim, Mihara, Watanabe, You). That would put her at WS 12.

I can't find an announcement of the Estonian World team; Petrokina's been back on the ice since earlier this month and is on the Challenge Cup roster. If Petrokina skates, then Glenn is 12th; if Petrokina doesn't, then Glenn is 11th and safely in the penultinate group, because:

Chiba will bump Glenn a spot down if she is 5th or higher at 4C's. If Petrokina skates, that also means being bumped down a group.

Had Glenn competed, she would have passed Schizas by placing one spot above Schizas, who can only earn incremental points over 264. Schizas is 29 points above Glenn before 4C's.

She would have needed 243 more points than Yoshida to pass her, 281 more than Chaeyeon Kim, 10th or higher to pass Petrokina, 8th or higher to pass Pinzarrone, and 4th or higher to pass Kurakova. If she skated/finished, she would have guaranteed herself a spot in the penultimate group, rather than depending on Petrokina's status, and there would have been an outside chance of being in the final group, if Yoshida faltered, and she placed 4th.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

There are the skaters who can pass her in WS and those whom she might have passed had she competed.

Right now, Glenn's WS 16. Four skaters above her aren't currently assigned to Worlds (Y. Kim, Mihara, Watanabe, You). That would put her at WS 12.

I can't find an announcement of the Estonian World team; Petrokina's been back on the ice since earlier this month and is on the Challenge Cup roster. If Petrokina skates, then Glenn is 12th; if Petrokina doesn't, then Glenn is 11th and safely in the penultinate group, because:

Chiba will bump Glenn a spot down if she is 5th or higher at 4C's. If Petrokina skates, that also means being bumped down a group.

Had Glenn competed, she would have passed Schizas by placing one spot above Schizas, who can only earn incremental points over 264. Schizas is 29 points above Glenn before 4C's.

She would have needed 243 more points than Yoshida to pass her, 281 more than Chaeyeon Kim, 10th or higher to pass Petrokina, 8th or higher to pass Pinzarrone, and 4th or higher to pass Kurakova. If she skated/finished, she would have guaranteed herself a spot in the penultimate group, rather than depending on Petrokina's status, and there would have been an outside chance of being in the final group, if Yoshida faltered, and she placed 4th.

wow, thank you for doing all of that.

 

[Karen-W]

And Senior Pairs...

Skater	Nationals	GPF	GP Highest	GP Average	CS Highest	CS Average	Sr B Highest	Sr B Average	Prev Season	Total	Events
Plazas/Fernandez	724.12​	0​	210.25​	203.3​	169.37​	168.755​	121.1325​	121.1325​	45​	1763.06​	JNIPC, CS Nebelhorn, SkAm, GPdF, CS Golden Spin
Martins/Bedard	663.72​	0​	193.325​	193.325​	152.64​	152.64​	101.3775​	101.3775​	0​	1558.41​	JNIPC, CS ACI, SkAm
Kam/O'Shea	751.04​	0​	190.2​	190.2​	182.07​	182.07​	0​	0​	30​	1525.58​	CS Finlandia, GP Espoo
Liu/Nagy	715.32​	0​	222.075​	218.9125​	165.2​	165.2​	0​	0​	0​	1486.71​	CS ACI, SkAm, NHK
Mokhova/Mokhov	559.28​	0​	168.5125​	168.5125​	127.05​	127.05​	109.3125​	109.3125​	0​	1369.03​	JNIPC, CS Nebelhorn, CoC
Ouellette/Newby-Estrella	573.28​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	102.975​	100.75125​	0​	777.01​	JNIPC, Tayside
Hanns/Neudecker	550.12​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	103.1475​	103.1475​	0​	756.42​	JNIPC
Digerness/Sadusky	628.48​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	628.48​
Fitzpatrick/Bearinger	530.68​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	530.68​
Chan/Howe	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	195​	195.00​

Top 5 from the Calculation Table = Plazas/Fernandez, Martins/Bedard, Kam/O'Shea, Liu/Nagy, Mokhova/Mokhov

Top 5 teams from Senior Nats - Kam/O'Shea, Efimova/Mitrofanov*, Plazas/Fernandez, Liu/Nagy, McBeath/Parkman*
*internationally ineligible

Top 10 from 2023 Worlds - (Knierim/Frazier), Chan/Howe

2022 Olympians - (Knierim/Frazier, Cain/LeDuc)

Top 24 on current Sr WR - Plazas/Fernandez, Liu/Nagy, Kam/O'Shea

Worlds Team Prediction - Chan/Howe, Kam/O'Shea, Plazas/Fernandez; alternates - Liu/Nagy, Martins/Bedard, Mokhova/Mokhov

 

[Karen-W]

There are the skaters who can pass her in WS and those whom she might have passed had she competed.

Right now, Glenn's WS 16. Four skaters above her aren't currently assigned to Worlds (Y. Kim, Mihara, Watanabe, You). That would put her at WS 12.

I can't find an announcement of the Estonian World team; Petrokina's been back on the ice since earlier this month and is on the Challenge Cup roster. If Petrokina skates, then Glenn is 12th; if Petrokina doesn't, then Glenn is 11th and safely in the penultinate group, because:

Estonia is probably waiting until after Kiibus skates at Bavarian Open and Petrokina skates at Challenge Cup to name their Worlds team.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Estonia is probably waiting until after Kiibus skates at Bavarian Open and Petrokina skates at Challenge Cup to name their Worlds team.

interesting it’s just because of the injury of Petrokina

 

[mtnskater]

I sincerely hope so unless their plan is to be Typhoid Marys who take out the rest of the competition.

I don't think I need to tell anyone that I'm anti-mask and anti-restriction, but there was really no need for Chock and Bates to skate today. They have many US titles already, and their Worlds spot was not in doubt. Going to 4CC when they're so visibly sick puts themselves and others at risk, plus it's stupid strategically to potentially end up off the podium in their last competition before Worlds.

The USFS should withdraw them if they don't come to their senses. I might excuse this type of behavior for Worlds or Olympics, but it's just unnecessary at US Nationals or 4CC.

Talked to handsome and classy Patrice Lauzon after the event this evening and he says C&B are still planning on 4CC’s. He said it appears to be a shorter lived bug and that Maddie is better already (she got it first) and Evan is better today than yesterday when they did not practice, so he feels they will recover quickly. They did compete sick at worlds last year with a stomach bug. We’ll see what happens.

 

[ross_hy]

Here's our first press release:

Worlds
WOMEN'S
Amber Glenn
Isabeau Levito

ICE DANCE
Madison Chock and Evan Bates
Christina Carreira and Anthony Ponomarenko
Emily Bratti and Ian Somerville

Alternates to be named on February 8 - World Juniors team announced February 2

Source:

U.S. Figure Skating Names Women's and Ice Dance World Team Roster | U.S. Figure Skating

www.usfigureskating.org

 

[Rukia]

ohhhhhhh they really did go top 3 at nats in dance wow

 

[Karen-W]

Here's our first press release:

Worlds
WOMEN'S
Amber Glenn
Isabeau Levito

ICE DANCE
Madison Chock and Evan Bates
Christina Carreira and Anthony Ponomarenko
Emily Bratti and Ian Somerville

Alternates to be named on February 8 - World Juniors team announced February 2

Source:

U.S. Figure Skating Names Women's and Ice Dance World Team Roster | U.S. Figure Skating

www.usfigureskating.org

So, they're waiting until after 4CCs and WYOG to finalize the alternates and Jr Worlds teams...

This also very firmly and clearly establishes CarPon as USA #2 heading into both 4CCs and Worlds.

 

[georgiana08]

I wonder if this is the death knell between Green/Parsons + MIDA.

 

[skatingguy]

At the beginning of the season I would not have believed that Bratti/Somerville would be going to Worlds.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

So if Ava and Lindsay were to both withdraw from 4 cc due to their injuries, though, very improbable, then who would be assigned as the entire team would’ve withdrawn

 

[kwanfan1818]

This also very firmly and clearly establishes CarPon as USA #2 heading into both 4CCs and Worlds.

It certainly ensures that they won't be judged side-by-side in Montreal and subjected to the politics of "split the vote." I think C/P are prepared to ride the momentum at 4C's and build on Nationals after such a spectacular performance. G/P will have 4C's to garner WS points and, hopefully, some cash.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

So this is Ava’s last appearance this season? And probably Lindsay’s as well. I’m looking forward to seeing how Ava is.

now that Amber is out was starr the first alternate?

 

[Karen-W]

It certainly ensures that they won't be judged side-by-side in Montreal and subjected to the politics of "split the vote." I think C/P are prepared to ride the momentum at 4C's and build on Nationals after such a spectacular performance. G/P will have 4C's to garner WS points and, hopefully, some cash.

Yeah, but I have a feeling GreenP might wind up 6th in Shanghai behind Les Gacs.

 

[Karen-W]

So this is Ava’s last appearance this season? And probably Lindsay’s as well. I’m looking forward to seeing how Ava is.

now that Amber is out was starr the first alternate?

No - as stated above - Elyce is the 1st alternate, then Audrey and then Starr.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

No - as stated above - Elyce is the 1st alternate, then Audrey and then Starr.

lol in the opposite order than what they should be. Feel bad for starr.

 

[Karen-W]

lol in the opposite order than what they should be. Feel bad for starr.

She should have skated better during the fall like Elyce did.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Yeah, but I have a feeling GreenP might wind up 6th in Shanghai behind Les Gacs.

I looked again, and 6th will get them no championship points: they already have two slots, so they need more than 588 points, or 4th or higher to get the increment between 588 and what they'd earn if they had a full slot. But it's still 5K for sixth place, although I'm guessing all of Zuerlein and the Whites would rather not get on that plane tomorrow.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I looked again, and 6th will get them no championship points: they already have two slots, so they need more than 588 points, or 4th or higher to get the increment between 588 and what they'd earn if they had a full slot. But it's still 5K for sixth place, although I'm guessing all of Zuerlein and the Whites would rather not get on that plane tomorrow.

question – as someone who studied the 1961 plane crash extensively are all the skaters, coaches and officials who are going to 4CC tomorrow flying together on a plane? Because after 1961, USFSA said the team would never travel on one plane as a group any longer.

 

[Karen-W]

I looked again, and 6th will get them no championship points: they already have two slots, so they need more than 588 points, or 4th or higher to get the increment between 588 and what they'd earn if they had a full slot. But it's still 5K for sixth place, although I'm guessing all of Zuerlein and the Whites would rather not get on that plane tomorrow.

Wait... I'm confused... The championship points they have are from last season and the season before, so don't they need championship points for this season to offset the ones they'll lose when the 2021-22 season drops off?

 

[Karen-W]

question – as someone who studied the 1961 plane crash extensively are all the skaters, coaches and officials who are going to 4CC tomorrow flying together on a plane? Because after 1961, USFSA said the team would never travel on one plain as a group any longer.

Well, the men won't be flying out until Monday since they have to compete tomorrow...

 

[kwanfan1818]

Wait... I'm confused... The championship points they have are from last season and the season before, so don't they need championship points for this season to offset the ones they'll lose when the 2021-22 season drops off?

I was thinking that they only swapped out a higher score and "(scored)" the lowest, but I'm sure you're right, and, since they're not going to Worlds, it doesn't matter if it impacts their total score this season. They'd get 80-something incremental points, once the 588 from two seasons ago was dropped, if they place 6th at 4C's.

I hope they come out like gangbusters.

 

[skatfan]

I wonder if this is the death knell between Green/Parsons + MIDA.

Given that Bratti and Somerville did so well I wonder that too.

I’m guessing the Browns might be looking at their coaching options as well.

 

[MacMadame]

I wonder if this is the death knell between Green/Parsons + MIDA.