I think you mean 2019, not 2018 for Vincent. In 2019, he won a world bronze medal, scored second at the following world team comp. 2020 was kind of a wash since Worlds got canceled there, and he missed the GP series due to his school schedule. Nobody was able to build a big BOW in 2020-21 and he did meltdown at Worlds SP andWhereas I think it's pretty wide open this time around.
Nathan is a given even if he totally implodes at Nationals and comes in 4th (which I absolutely don't expect to happen). Vincent has had problems of late and hasn't competed as much as some of the other guys. His BOW is all from 2018 and earlier which is 3 seasons ago. It's ancient history. Jason needs to skate perfectly and actually get a quad to be competitive.
There are younger guys who have performed well who probably aren't a factor for medals this time around but could really benefit from the Olympic experience where Jason and Vincent have had it. They will only be on the team if they perform this Fall and at Nationals and show they are in the hunt for a medal in Beijing IMO. But if any of these younger guys has a good Fall and beats them at Nationals, I don't think Jason and/or Vincent will be given a BOW slot over the person who beat them. Vincent, in particular, has no recent BOW that would justify that.
missed the LP by fractions of a point, but it’s a clean slate now. He has the highest total so far of the American men who have competed thus far, last time I checked, and at his best, he’s a medal contender. Nothing about that has changed. I do agree with you that I think Vincent will have to do well in the GP series and make the GPF (and medal) if he ends up imploding at Nationals and one of the younger men beat him at Nats. That said, I, for some reason, have less doubts about Vincent doing well enough at Nats to make the team outright than relying on BOW based on a great fall season. Maybe because history has shown that to be the case even though he’s look better than ever thus far.