The Dance Hall, Part 4: To Helsinki & Back -- Seeking Rhumba Magic ...

[blancanieves]

The US is going to start running out of room for GP spots soon if none of the current top three retire after 2018, what with at least three junior world champs(and, judging by Junior Worlds, very likely four once Carreira/Ponomarenko are done with juniors) and multiple national pewter medallists. I wonder who is going to get Skate America this year.

With C/B and H/D not being seeded this GP season, what are the chances of having the top 3 US teams at Skate America?

 

[thvu]

I personally don't get all the love for Pogrebinsky & Benoit. I think they're really sloppy and don't see the potential many others see. I think the only reason they were 4th at nationals was due to Igor politiks. I think the Parsons have alot of talent, but I don't see them doing well in seniors with their lack of height difference and mis-mismatched bodies and lines. They'll need to go the Denkova and Staviyski route in terms of programs and packaging in order to break through in Seniors IMO, but they probably won't get it (and I would love to have a US Dance team bring the voids for once.)

Put me down with those that think Hawayek and Baker have the most potential of the 4 and below crowed of US Ice Dance. It's not even close to me.

 

[wickedwitch]

I think they're really sloppy and don't see the potential many others see. I think the only reason they were 4th at nationals was due to Igor politiks.

I too am not a huge fan of P/B, but given that the two teams ranked directly below them had big issues with at least one program, it's probably not due to politics that they were 4th.

 

[chameleonster]

With C/B and H/D not being seeded this GP season, what are the chances of having the top 3 US teams at Skate America?

As they're all guaranteed two GP spots without a host pick, I'd say pretty slim. US has to consider P/B, H/B, M/C, and Parsons, who are all only guaranteed one GP if memory serves. There's also Cannuscio/McManus who honestly might just be out of luck. Its a good thing dance has ten spots per GP now, or there just wouldn't be room.

 

[shan]

CanMcMan....

 

[aka_gerbil]

With C/B and H/D not being seeded this GP season, what are the chances of having the top 3 US teams at Skate America?

Shibs, C/B, and H/D have all three made the GPF the last two season. I don't think USFS is going to do anything to automatically give one of those teams a steep uphill climb to make that happen again next season. Assuming all 3 medaled, the team in third would most likely have to win their other event to make the final.

Also, as others have pointed out, there are a lot of US teams next season only guaranteed one spot. Since none of the 4-6 seeds are American, I've actually wondered if USFS might have C/B and H/D skate both of their events abroad and use the two host spots left after the Shibs to help the teams not getting two otherwise.

 

[Dobre]

How does one define a successful debut for a transitioning junior team? This is why I wanted to track the teams from this season. Because so often we only see the very top junior team(s) on the GP and often their results are considered "unsuccessful." (And when they are considered successful, often their second senior season is considered unsuccessful). But there are so many problems with that analysis. With only 8 teams on the GP and two of them taken by host teams, you could wind up finishing dead last behind a top-eleven team in the World on the GP two years ago. Exactly how unsuccessful is that? This season, we've had the chance for better perspective on the Grand Prix, which is great to see.

And, as we've all seen, the scores on the GP tend to be tougher than the Challenger Series (not at the very early season Challengers, but in general, yes). And early Challenger scores tend to be much lower than late-season Challenger scores. On top of that, we wind up with a crazy event like Tallinn Trophy, where miraculously 20 of 21 teams suddenly earn a season's best all at the same competition.

Plus, clearly, some teams have a very deep field at home, while others are sent out here, there, and everywhere because their country has no one else to send or has one high-level team paving the way. (And it doesn't hurt to have a coach who is taking his/her stable somewhere already). Therefore, making the post season--while being a success in its own right--doesn't accurately compare a team to others who didn't.

So what makes a transition for a junior team a success?

First & foremost, I would say: earning a second event. Not on the GP, but a second international event, period.

Of the dance teams I tracked this season, only four teams earned a second Challenger/GP/major international event. This means everyone else never had the chance to demonstrate international improvement. And that is a problem because there's very good reason to believe their scores would have improved. All the teams that went to two or more events on my list seem to have averaged about a 9 point gain during the season.

Which, of course, is another criteria. Improvement. It's hard to see the improvement for teams like Sales & Wamtseeker and Biechler & Dodge, whose end-of-season scores are National ones. But both teams came out looking pretty good relative to expectations in those end-of-season contests, certainly when you look at their final placements at Nationals and consider those disappointing early season scores. The improvement was there, but it's hard for the larger dance community to see it without those international events.

Hitting your levels. The big difference for Pogrebinsky & Benoit and Lauriault & Le Gac this season was hitting their levels. They typically--and IMO fairly--scored lower in PCS than more experienced teams who just edged them out for placements. But these young teams hit levels over those teams; and in the long run, that can make all the difference.


I'm rooting for McNamara & Carpenter.

 

[chapis]

Isabella and Ilya move to Marina team, what happened?

https://www.facebook.com/tobiastkachenko/?hc_ref=PAGES_TIMELINE&fref=nf

 

[VGThuy]

Isabella and Ilya move to Marina team, what happened?

https://www.facebook.com/tobiastkachenko/?hc_ref=PAGES_TIMELINE&fref=nf

Very interesting. Maybe she and Ilya visited Canton and liked the environment and maybe Marina gave them a great sales pitch.

 

[chapis]

yes, I guess now they want to be priority ,Marina has only the Shibs and Kana and Chris as top dancers, but Marina have to Gracie, Patrick and some time Nathan. I think it is a risky move for the olympic season.

 

[chameleonster]

There are also a lot more dance teams in Novi, and most of the singles skaters in Canton don't train there full time. If they want more attention and less competition it might not be such a bad move.

 

[VGThuy]

I was listening to my shuffle at work, and the song "Here Lies Love" from the show of the same title came on and I couldn't help but think Madison Chock would make a killer Imelda Marcos. Evan could play either Ninoy Aquino or Ferdinand Marcos even though he's not of Asian descent. Maybe this should be an idea to give to Marina for Muramoto/Reed.

 

[blancanieves]

Shibs, C/B, and H/D have all three made the GPF the last two season. I don't think USFS is going to do anything to automatically give one of those teams a steep uphill climb to make that happen again next season. Assuming all 3 medaled, the team in third would most likely have to win their other event to make the final.

Good point.

 

[kittysk8ts]

Isabella and Ilya move to Marina team, what happened?

https://www.facebook.com/tobiastkachenko/?hc_ref=PAGES_TIMELINE&fref=nf

OMG, Fascinating, I have no idea why the change, but I cannot wait to see the result!

 

[chapis]

OMG, Fascinating, I have no idea why the change, but I cannot wait to see the result!

don´t get so excited, do you remember C/L and S/K? At least their programas can't get worse.

 

[kittysk8ts]

don´t get so excited, do you remember C/L and S/K? At least their programas can't get worse.

Haha, yes, you are right chapis! But right now, the element of surprise is what intrigues me here, and the anticipation of the chemistry between the team and new coach.

 

[twizzletoes76]

I wouldn't really say new coach for them. I believe Isabella did work with Marina in the past prior to the Igor/Marina split when she was with former partner, though I don't know to what extent Marina prioritized her then. Marina seems to only care about those teams that are going to get noticed and for those ones, she does craft beautiful programs. But, yes, there have been a couple teams that have gone to her recently who have just fallen in the standings. I don't think that would happen to this team though as they seem more on an upward trajectory than a down one.

 

[Areski]

don´t get so excited, do you remember C/L and S/K? At least their programas can't get worse.

I thought that Tobias / Tkachenko programs this season were good. I liked them and I don't remember complaining either. So in that case ... they can get worse. I bet though that Isabella is going to slay at least in Latin SD! The other bigger question mark is their general skating quality & hitting levels. 4th place at the Europeans is a success but they were also very lucky tbh.

 

[kittysk8ts]

I wouldn't really say new coach for them. I believe Isabella did work with Marina in the past prior to the Igor/Marina split when she was with former partner,

I was not aware of that! Thank you so much for sharing that

 

[cgirl8]

I saw someone mention this question elsewhere and though it was interesting so I'll ask it here:

Are there any step sequences in particular that you think would be good as a new pattern?

Since pattern are taken from Partial Step Sequences and two are recently under development with the ISU from last years worlds.

 

[aftershocks]

Nice Olympic Channel feature on Anna Cappellini and her husband, Ondrej Hotarek:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP8FINXgUqo

Beautifully filmed and it gives interesting insight into their relationship. Anna describing how her love for Ondrej impacts her skating, is very poignant. It must be great and freeing to feel so loved.

It's kind of funny how the filmmakers keep showing clips of Ondrej on the ice with his former partner Sylvia Berton (who is never mentioned by name), while Ondrej only references (understandably) his current pairs partner, Valentina Marchei.

 

[kittysk8ts]

Nice Olympic Channel feature on Anna Cappellini and her husband, Ondrej Hotarek:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP8FINXgUqo

Beautifully filmed and it gives interesting insight into their relationship. Anna describing how her love for Ondrej impacts her skating, is very poignant. It must be great and freeing to feel so loved.

It's kind of funny how the filmmakers keep showing clips of Ondrej on the ice with his former partner Sylvia Berton (who is never mentioned by name), while Ondrej only references (understandably) his current pairs partner, Valentina Marchei.

I had the pleasure of seeing Ondrej and Stephania at Skate Canada a few years back where they won the gold and they were lovely. The crowd loved them!

 

[sap5]

Wow, Weaver & Poje WTT FD!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCytH-nCeGM

Can they skate like this forever? Are they finally back from whatever no-man's land they were in all season? Fingers are crossed!!

 

[princeton123]

Didn't they win WTT in 2015 and Team Challenge in 2016 too after underwhelming regular seasons? These two need to learn how to peak properly.

 

[kittysk8ts]

Didn't they win WTT in 2015 and Team Challenge in 2016 too after underwhelming regular seasons? These two need to learn how to peak properly.

Yes, they won both of those that you mentioned. In addition to winning Canadians, internationally they also achieved the following:


2014-2015
Worlds 3rd
Four Continents 1st
GP Final 1st
GP NHK Trophy 1st
GP Skate Canada 1st
CS Nebelhorn 1st

2015-2016
Worlds 5th
Four Continents 3rd
GP Final 1st
GP Rostelecom 1st
GP Skate Canada 1st
CS Finlandia 1st

Not too shabby actually

 

[yurokis40]

they need better programs next year, although the latin sd does give them an advantage they are very strong in that genre.

 

[marbri]

Wow, Weaver & Poje WTT FD!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCytH-nCeGM

Can they skate like this forever? Are they finally back from whatever no-man's land they were in all season? Fingers are crossed!!

Still hate the program and choreography but they skated that miles better than any other time this season. The lifts in particular, which I found very jerky previously, were very smooth and flowed so much better here. The whole program was smoother overall. There hasn't been that much time between Worlds and this event so I wonder if the issue with them lately has more to do with nerves and less to do with peaking. This is just a fun event for the skaters and a chance to make a lot of money but it doesn't carry with it the esteem and pressure of other ISU championships.

 

[aftershocks]

I had the pleasure of seeing Ondrej and Stephania at Skate Canada a few years back where they won the gold and they were lovely. The crowd loved them!

Thanks for correcting me on Stefania's first name. I must have been thinking of Silvia Fontana. Too late for me to correct the reference in my earlier post. It is spelled Stefania, not Stephania.

 

[kittysk8ts]

Thanks for correcting me on Stefania's first name. I must have been thinking of Silvia Fontana. Too late for me to correct the reference in my earlier post. It is spelled Stefania, not Stephania.

Clearly spelling it not my forte, lol. Thnx for video @aftershocks, I really enjoyed it

 

[Areski]

Still hate the program and choreography but they skated that miles better than any other time this season. The lifts in particular, which I found very jerky previously, were very smooth and flowed so much better here. The whole program was smoother overall. There hasn't been that much time between Worlds and this event so I wonder if the issue with them lately has more to do with nerves and less to do with peaking. This is just a fun event for the skaters and a chance to make a lot of money but it doesn't carry with it the esteem and pressure of other ISU championships.

For me there was never anything to hate about their Free Dance. Maybe because I love the music so much, and I thought they gave it justice. I disliked their SD but at Worlds I tolerated it.