U.S. Women [#2]: The Unbearable Lightness of Beijing

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Lol, at this point, it's all about maximizing GOE. The fall season is for seeing if you can successfully do your most difficult content.

ETA: I just wanted to say I'm thrilled they stuck to their published criteria with how they selected the alternates.

I suspect selecting Starr over Hanna for 4ccs came down to comparing international scores or all their scores this season. Hanna's season was very up and down. This would be easily verifiable, but I'm on my phone.
 
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zigzig said:
Starr to 4CC over Kate and Hannah? bulllllllll
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Kate doesn't have the TES mins. I won't be surprised if she is assigned to Bavarian Open, though, to get them for future consideration.

Coco said:
I love Kilbus but if Estonia doesn't send Petrokina, there should be a riot.
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The Estonian fed announced early on in the fall that the skaters who earned the spots at Worlds would be going to the Olympics, which several other countries have also done. Petrokina will probably get the Worlds assignment.
Coco said:
I suspect selecting Starr over Hanna for 4ccs came down to comparing international scores or all their scores this season. Hanna's season was very up and down. This would be easily verifiable, but I'm on my phone.
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Well, I did just include their results a page or two back, after Friday night's FS. Starr had a 177+ at SkAm, her two Challengers were in the mid 150s. Hanna had one Challenger and her score was 158+. IMO, they were pretty much on the same level internationally, because Starr has been so inconsistent and Hanna only had one international assignment to prove herself. OTOH, Starr has demonstrated she can score higher, so I think it makes sense in that regard.
 
Karen-W said:
Kate doesn't have the TES mins. I won't be surprised if she is assigned to Bavarian Open, though, to get them for future consideration.
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The junior world selection camp is the week after Bavarian Open, so I'm not sure it would make sense for Kate to do those two back to back. Maybe she can get one of the later senior internationals like Gardena Spring Trophy (whether she makes the junior world team or not...I think Clare Seo is the favorite for the third JW spot, but Kate should at least be an alternate)
 
I'm pouring through threads trying to figure this out- but given the bubble for the Olympics does this mean the alternates (or at least one alternate) will need to be in China already for the games in case a withdrawal happens when the athletes are already there? I'm guessing the answer is "yes, duh" but wanted to make sure.
 
tylersf said:
I agree with @pointbleu.

There are those parents who have deep pockets to support their children's training and career to ensure they succeed.

Then, there are skate parents who take our second mortgages on their homes, family members working multiple jobs or skaters who promise to pay back coaches based on future earnings to finance training.

Lastly, there are talented, but low-income skaters who can't afford training and resources to optimize their success. I can think of one low-income skater who was very talented, but didn't have the money to get better training. He was fortunate to have people who cared and coached him along to Nationals. I think USFSA tries these days to fund talented skaters, but it isn't enough at this time to ensure the USA's success in the world of figure skating, especially in singles.
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Following up on this. The Micheal Weiss foundation assisted many up and coming skaters. I know of at least 2 youngsters that later became Olympians.
 
AYS said:
With that kind of severe outlier score, I'm inclined to think it was a data entry error (neg instead of pos).
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Re: a judge giving Karen a -5 for her layback in the short program - Yes, that's obviously an input error.

I wonder if there should be some controls built in to the system so that obvious outliers get notified before they get finalized - "this score is 5 standard deviations away from the rest of the judges' score. Are you sure you want to confirm this?" Obviously this can't be used too easily or else it would encourage judges to stay in the corridor, but a -5 for her layback come on now.
 
Stephanie said:
@ifsmagazine
2022 FOUR CONTINENTS Starr Andrews, Gabriella Izzo, Audrey Shin Alternates – Hanna Harrell, Sierra Venetta
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Everyone’s all abuzz about Starr Andrews going to 4Crudtinents but I’m delighted for Audrey Shin - that means we have one more performance of the insane “my immortal…BELOVED” voiceover left in this season :rofl: :cheer2:
 
AngieNikodinovLove said:
Oh dear! I just saw the 4CC assignments, Amber gets the hose yet again? She beat all those people at skate America. I am at a loss for words for these championships
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Given Alyssa might not be negative in time and how many top skaters were knocks out of Nats, maybe both she and Lindsey have to quarantine until Beijing.
 
Mixed feelings about these Nationals.

1. Happy for Mariah for finally clinching the title, and with her more inspiring free skate. She stayed smart and would not attempt a 3/3 in the free (like she did in Russia to vault herself back into contention). The opening 3/2 instead of 3/3 was what, 2.5 points lost?! For her it's more important to stay upright to get those PCS, and she did. But other than that, the rest was faultless. The lutzes were beautiful. So were the spins.

2. Karen again delivered when it mattered. Yes there were still UR calls but she got the scores she did regardless, and deservedly so too. Beautiful performances.

3. For everyone who attacked these 2 for not having 3/3s in the free, well it's true but their strategy of focusing on the PCS and GOEs worked. Plus, in Karen's case, a 2axel3toe and 3lutz is the same BV wise as a 3lutz3toe and 2axel so there is no need to be dramatic. There were others who could overtake them with 3/3s but they didn't / couldn't. I do feel the plan of scaling down by both was partially made after knowledge of WD from Alysa and Amber. If I were their coaches, I would have told them not to worry about Lindsay and as the short showed, her PCS wasn't quite there yet. If they weren't told outright, I am sure they knew all they had to do was to deliver enough to justify the decision that USFS already made. I am guessing their 3/3s were appear again at the Olympics.

4. Impressed by Isabeau. For me, she didn't remind me of Sasha or Julia but more like Adelina or Kamila even, with the spring and power, the imperfect but not deal-breaking juump technique, and the more sensitive musicality. The jump technique does require intervention if she wants to last til the next Olympics.

5. Proud of Gracie and if she decides to retire after this season she will have this short program to remember for her comeback.

6. I enjoy Gabriella's skating but for everyone harping on the top 2 not having 3/3s, what about her placing 4th with 4 clean triples?!

7. Assignments. The Olympic Team is as expected, and so is Worlds; the 4CC team being so close after Nationals can only send the US Team B-/C since Team B+ is Olympic alternates and Amber won't recover in time. I do feel the Jr World of Isabeau, Lindsay and Clare is very clear and holding that camp is very much a waste of time. But if USFS wants to send Clare instead of Kate to Jr Worlds, Kate at least should have 4CCs given how Nationals went. Did she not have the mins?

8. For those who said Nationals do not need to be held for Olympic selection - I agree - but it does still matter for funding envelops and future assignment considerations.

9. I don't know if Alysa's WD means she doesn't get first reaction to Team Event Selection. None of these 3 women have had an Olympic medal and I am guessing won't want to pass on an easy shot at it since none of these 3 have a realistic shot at an individual medal anyways. Very interested to learn who gets first dips here.
 
Marco said:
7. Assignments. The Olympic Team is as expected, and so is Worlds; the 4CC team being so close after Nationals can only send the US Team B-/C since Team B+ is Olympic alternates and Amber won't recover in time. I do feel the Jr World of Isabeau, Lindsay and Clare is very clear and holding that camp is very much a waste of time. But if USFS wants to send Clare instead of Kate to Jr Worlds, Kate at least should have 4CCs given how Nationals went. Did she not have the mins?
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No, Kate doesn't have the Sr TES mins for any ISU Championships. She does have the Jr Worlds TES mins. Big mistake on the part of the USFS to not have assigned her to Cup of Austria, Warsaw Cup or Golden Spin (even as an alternate because, let's be real, they had to have known giving Bradie those assignments was just for show).
Marco said:
9. I don't know if Alysa's WD means she doesn't get first reaction to Team Event Selection. None of these 3 women have had an Olympic medal and I am guessing won't want to pass on an easy shot at it since none of these 3 have a realistic shot at an individual medal anyways. Very interested to learn who gets first dips here.
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Alysa's scores this season aren't going to get the US any higher in either the SP or the FS than where Mariah or Karen would place. Mariah should get the TE, in my opinion.
 
tylersf said:
I agree with @pointbleu.

There are those parents who have deep pockets to support their children's training and career to ensure they succeed.

Then, there are skate parents who take our second mortgages on their homes, family members working multiple jobs or skaters who promise to pay back coaches based on future earnings to finance training.

Lastly, there are talented, but low-income skaters who can't afford training and resources to optimize their success. I can think of one low-income skater who was very talented, but didn't have the money to get better training. He was fortunate to have people who cared and coached him along to Nationals. I think USFSA tries these days to fund talented skaters, but it isn't enough at this time to ensure the USA's success in the world of figure skating, especially in singles.
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Not to sound harsh....but that is the way it is....and the way it will remain. Money pays for stuff...and
then more stuff.

Some skaters who come from low income families are helped. Are there ant
Marco said:
Mixed feelings about these Nationals.



2. Karen again delivered when it mattered. Yes there were still UR calls but she got the scores she did regardless, and deservedly so too. Beautiful performances.
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Karen was utterly gorgeous. I am not sure what the points are, but beautiful artistry should be given more weight. The beauty IMO makes up for a lot of UR's
Marco said:
3. For everyone who attacked these 2 for not having 3/3s in the free, well it's true but their strategy of focusing on the PCS and GOEs worked. Plus, in Karen's case, a 2axel3toe and 3lutz is the same BV wise as a 3lutz3toe and 2axel so there is no need to be dramatic. There were others who could overtake them with 3/3s but they didn't / couldn't. I do feel the plan of scaling down by both was partially made after knowledge of WD from Alysa and Amber. If I were their coaches, I would have told them not to worry about Lindsay and as the short showed, her PCS wasn't quite there yet. If they weren't told outright, I am sure they knew all they had to do was to deliver enough to justify the decision that USFS already made. I am guessing their 3/3s were appear again at the Olympics.
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Did anyone really "attack" them? They may have criticized, but I don't think they were attacked.
I think that the US made an error, years ago when they decided beautiful skating would rule the day, when, in fact, jumps are king (or queen). The US ladies need those 3/3 to be competitive on the world stage.

Marco said:
4. Impressed by Isabeau. For me, she didn't remind me of Sasha or Julia but more like Adelina or Kamila even, with the spring and power, the imperfect but not deal-breaking juump technique, and the more sensitive musicality. The jump technique does require intervention if she wants to last til the next Olympics.
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What about Isabeau's jump technique needs an intervention? All I could think while watching her is that Uncle Dick is out there kvelling about the pointed toes, gorgeous posture, and elegance of movement.
Marco said:
For those who said Nationals do not need to be held for Olympic selection - I agree - but it does still matter for funding envelops and future assignment considerations.

9. I don't know if Alysa's WD means she doesn't get first reaction to Team Event Selection. None of these 3 women have had an Olympic medal and I am guessing won't want to pass on an easy shot at it since none of these 3 have a realistic shot at an individual medal anyways. Very interested to learn who gets first dips here.
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I worry that we are sending two women who are at the end of their skating careers. There is wisdom and experience to be gained at the Olys. If they had asked me (and, again, they did not ask me) I would have sent Karen or Mariah, and two younger picks----Alysa and an up and comer who is expected to represent the next Quad. And, no, that would not be Starr.
 
AxelAnnie said:
I think that the US made an error, years ago when they decided beautiful skating would rule the day, when, in fact, jumps are king (or queen). The US ladies need those 3/3 to be competitive on the world stage.
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Made an error how? I don't think they held down any talented jumpers on purpose without cause?! Or esp. for the benefit of beautiful skaters who couldn't jump as well?! On the contrary, they were quick to jump on the Gracie bandwagon back in 2013, and promoted Bradie and Mirai in 2018 whose skating were not very... hmm... pretty and the judges gave the latter skaters lucky calls but were much harsher in comparison to Ashley and Karen.

Not arguing with your last sentence, but again it's not like there are others significantly out-jumping Mariah and Karen here and skating equally or nearly as beautifully - Isabeau not being age-eligible and thus out of the question. I had stated in another thread that if everyone delivered, they should only send one of Karen and Mariah, and leave room for Amber or Lindsay. Sadly, one reason for another, the latter two could not deliver / compete.
 
Karen-W said:
No, Kate doesn't have the Sr TES mins for any ISU Championships. She does have the Jr Worlds TES mins. Big mistake on the part of the USFS to not have assigned her to Cup of Austria, Warsaw Cup or Golden Spin (even as an alternate because, let's be real, they had to have known giving Bradie those assignments was just for show).

Alysa's scores this season aren't going to get the US any higher in either the SP or the FS than where Mariah or Karen would place. Mariah should get the TE, in my opinion.
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I wouldn't know how much Tom decided to tell USFS back then. He must have had some hope still that Bradie would recover in time to compete and would therefore only tell them bit by bit, event by event. But if Bradie was WDing from these events so late that no replacements could be arranged, then shame on him. That said, was Kate ever on the USFS's radar as a contender? Coz even if Bradie WD on time, who is to say they would consider Kate?

On the bolded part, I would too, just wondering if USFS would have the guts to leave out their top scorer of the season. And Mariah's 3/3 in the short at Nationals was very questionable.
 
Marco said:
I would too, just wondering if USFS would have the guts to leave out their top scorer of the season.
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I dunno... First off, we have to remember that the more important portion of the TE is the SP. Assume that the 5 countries that make the FS are: RUS, USA, JPN, CAN & CHN. All three of our women are going to, in all likelihood, finish 3rd in the FS. They won't beat Valieva. Maybe one of them could beat Sakamoto or Higuchi if whichever of those two has an off night (not out of the question, but let's not bank on it). Schizas and whomever CHN sends aren't going to beat any of our three ladies in the FS. So, let's just look at SP scores.

I would disregard the Challenger events because we all know, in retrospect, that Alysa only added the 3A attempts in the SP with SCI. She's clearly not going to stop, even if she's losing more points going for it than she gets with a clean 2A (her Lombardia & Nebelhorn SP scores were comparable to her SCI SP score).

So, here's what we have:
Alysa -
SCI - 73.63 - 3A< (-1.10GOE), 3F!, 3Z-3T
NHK - 67.72 - 3A< (F -3.20GOE), 3F, 3Zq-3T< (-2.02GOE)
Nats - 71.42 - 3A< (F -3.20GOE), 3F, 3Z-3T

Mariah -
IdF - 60.81 - 2A, 3F-3T<< (F -2.65GOE), 3Z
RC - 69.37 - 2A, 3F-2T, 3Z
Nats - 75.55 - 3F-3T, 2A, 3Z

Karen -
SCI - 68.74 - 2A, 3Z-2T (-2.19GOE), 3Lo
IdF - 64.67 - 3Zq-2T (-0.51GOE), 2A, 3Loq (-0.63GOE)
Nats - 74.55 - 3Z-3Tq (-0.34GOE), 2A, 3Lo

Mariah has had a better success rate with being clean in her SP this season than either Alysa or Karen. I don't think there was much argument in the pbp thread about her 3F-3T being generously called, though there was plenty of discussion about Alysa's being called clean (at minimum the 3T was at least a q, though @tony would argue that both the 3Z and 3T were <).

In the SP, the only skater that poses a threat to the US women finishing no worse than 3rd is Gubanova, whose SP scores at her two Challengers were 69.50 and 65.98. If I was the USFS, I'd take that bet that Bell, even with a watered down 3F-2T combination instead of a 3F-3T, can beat her. There's no need to subject Alysa to even further scrutiny from the international judges before the Women's SP - not especially after her underwhelming SP this week that didn't show any sort of improvement to her jump rotations. Alysa's not likely to land the 3A, and certainly not two times in the SP in Beijing.
 
So I was reminiscing about 2019 Nats, because most of the top junior aged men were novices at the time. (Malinin, Kapeikis, and Annis were all top 5.) Then I scrolled down, and I realized the complete opposite was true for the novice ladies of the time. Out of that entire field, only Kate Wang even qualified for Nats this year, and she was 10th in 2019. Junior ladies fared slightly better, with 3/12 making it to Nats this year.

Now some of this has to do with the fact that in the US, it's harder to qualify for Nats in womens/ladies due to sheer odds. Also, the intermediate ladies were super competitive that year. (And I stand by my thought from the time that neither Levito nor Thorngren should have been skating intermediate..) But to some extent, an entire "competitive generation" of women skaters didn't last 3 years competitively, and that saddens me. I wonder, to what extent is that linked to the US women being less competitive internationally at the moment?
 
I actually think the opposite of what some people think about the USFS promoting 3/3s and harder jumps. I think judges and fans get WAY too excited when they see a younger level skater who goes for harder jumps and 3/3 that they propped them up early before they're even cooked and they start getting away with bad technique and they start getting generous calls and scores on those jumps domestically because they want to encourage them to keep going after harder content. Then they become seniors (or compete in the World Junior level) and then get rude awakenings when it turns out their rotations, GOE, and PCS (skating skills, ice coverage, speed) need a ton of work and by then it's much harder to fix because their bad techniques have become a habit and they don't know how to jump any other way. They focus too much on hard jump attempts that it leads to ignoring everything else that makes a skater internationally competitive.

Eteri doesn't just dominate because of her jumps (well this quad maybe) but because her skaters, whether you think their programs and skating styles are ugly or not, have speed, power, ice coverage and the blade skills necessary to do a thousand transitions while maintaining their fast speed. They also have top spins that meet level 4 easily (most of the time), and despite prerotation and technique issues on the entries, they're not on wrong edges and they're not UNDERROTATED. She knows the IJS right now doesn't take deductions for prerotations or weird Lutz/Loop/Flip techniques. It only cares if you launch from the right edge at the moment of launch.
 
US coaches are horrible at teaching the basics such as speed and power all you have to do is watch our Juniors against not only the top Russian girls but the Japanese and Korean girls. Why is USFS not addressing this? Tom Z and Tammy Gambill aren't the answer and these lower level coaches who have some of these top Junior skaters don't seem to be up to the task either.
 
Jammers said:
US coaches are horrible at teaching the basics such as speed and power all you have to do is watch our Juniors against not only the top Russian girls but the Japanese and Korean girls. Why is USFS not addressing this? Tom Z and Tammy Gambill aren't the answer and these lower level coaches who have some of these top Junior skaters don't seem to be up to the task either.
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Which is funny though because despite Gambill, Karen actually has the speed and power that gives her that international look. So does Amber. Mariah actually speeds around the rink as well. Before them, Gracie certainly had the speed and power (and huge jumps and good rotation), However, then you see some other American women as a group and wonder why weren't they taught better basics? The U.S. men seem fine keeping up with the international men when it comes to speed, power, and edging.
 
VGThuy said:
Which is funny though because despite Gambill, Karen actually has the speed and power that gives her that international look. So does Amber. Mariah actually speeds around the rink as well. Before them, Gracie certainly had the speed and power (and huge jumps and good rotation), However, then you see some other American women as a group and wonder why weren't they taught better basics? The U.S. men seem fine keeping up with the international men when it comes to speed, power, and edging.
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Karen was already a novice national champion and 4th in juniors before switching to Tammy, so I think her basics were largely formed by her Bay Area coaches.
 
Stephanie said:
Karen was already a novice national champion and 4th in juniors before switching to Tammy, so I think her basics were largely formed by her Bay Area coaches.
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I now wonder who taught her that Lu Chen jump technique - big beautiful, but so so so prone to review and UR calls...:wuzrobbedIf only her jumps could just be a few degrees in, her career would have looked a lot different.
 
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