U.S. Ladies [#25]: Method in the Madness

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natsulian said:
Planned Program Content

Bradie TENNELL
  • Short Program: (3Lz-3T, 2A, and 3F)
  • Long Program: (2A, 3Lz-3T, 3F, 2A, 3Lz-3T, 3Lo-2T-2Lo, and 3S)
Mariah BELL
  • Short Program: (2A, 3Lz-3T, and 3F)
  • Long Program: (2A-3T, 3Lo, 3F-2T, 2A, 3Lz-2T-2Lo, 3F, and 3Lz)
Click to expand...

Glad to see Bradie playing it safe smart and taking out the 3L combo. It's just too much of a head game trick for her right now and, IMO, has been the cause of several of her less than stellar performances this season. She gets too in her head, misses it and then skates tight for the rest of her program. The hope is with the pressure off she'll be able to skate more relaxed and minimize her UR calls, which have been a major issue this season. I could see a top 5 or 6 finish if she's clean.

Mariah needs the 3-3 in the SP in order to have a hope of being close enough to get top 8. I don't expect a ton from her but if she can have a FS like she did at NHK she has a great shot at a 6th-8th place finish. She gets very good GOE on her jumps when they're clean and the judges enjoy her. Fingers crossed she'll knock it out the park.

This is going to be a very interesting competition.
 
It would be smart of Bradie to NOT go for the 3Lz-3Lo. Executing a clean Long with positive GOE’s would bring her TES to around 72-75 as opposed to her usual 69-71 with the head-case that is the 3Lz-3Lo.

She’s practiced the 3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-3T, 3Lo-2T-2Lo, but no 3Lz-2T-2Lo.
 
I mean, they don't have to do the planned program content. It's just an outline. I'm sure if both want to they can change it up for more points. I almost wonder if both are submitting a more conservative plan and will add in the more difficult option if that goes well in practice.
 
Regardless of anything else, I'm hoping for a top 5 finish for Bradie and a top 10 finish for Mariah, I think both those finishes are realistic with the jump layouts they've put forth...
 
I was hoping Mariah would attempt the 2A3T twice in the LP, since it's such a solid combo for her, and would bump her TES a couple points. Not that it matters much--she just needs to execute her content. If she can skate mostly clean, she'll be top 8 no problem.
 
alchemy void said:
I was hoping Mariah would attempt the 2A3T twice in the LP, since it's such a solid combo for her, and would bump her TES a couple points. Not that it matters much--she just needs to execute her content. If she can skate mostly clean, she'll be top 8 no problem.
Click to expand...
She already repeats the lutz and toe, so she gets more points from that than she would repeating the toe.
 
vesperholly said:
She already repeats the lutz and toe, so she gets more points from that than she would repeating the toe.
Click to expand...

I totally forgot she doesn't attempt a salchow. (has she ever?) I was thinking two 2A-3Ts in the bonus, with good GOE would rack up a ton of points. But without a 7th triple, never mind. :)
 
alchemy void said:
I totally forgot she doesn't attempt a salchow. (has she ever?) I was thinking two 2A-3Ts in the bonus, with good GOE would rack up a ton of points. But without a 7th triple, never mind. :)
Click to expand...
Yeah, she used to do 3flip-half loop-3sal or 2axel-half loop-3sal. Not sure what happened with it this year. Maybe Raf was trying to fix weird technique.

Looks ok to me here at 2:30: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cN_vZl68VD0
 
alchemy void said:
I totally forgot she doesn't attempt a salchow. (has she ever?) I was thinking two 2A-3Ts in the bonus, with good GOE would rack up a ton of points. But without a 7th triple, never mind. :)
Click to expand...

She's done really beautiful 2A/1E/3S before.

https://youtu.be/cN_vZl68VD0?t=151

She also had a 3F/1E/3S in there in the 2016/2017 season. She wasn't particularly successful with it though; but to be fair she was trying it in the second half of the program.

I think not attempting the sal at all is new this season? I assume they were trying to get her to skate clean with scaled back content.
 
Problem with the US ladies right now is that there is a defensive mentality where they are skating "not to lose" rather than skating "to win". Many of the comments in this forum reflect the same mindset where they would rather see a "clean skate" that often results in mediocre results.

Right now, the Russians and Japanese seem to be more assertive and skating to win. Instead of cheering on our skaters to go for it and win, we are criticizing the Russian women who are pushing the envelope and will probably dominate the podium at the next Olympics.

I'm not saying the current Russian system for females is perfect, because it isn't. They're churning and burning through kids like they're disposable paper products. Even the 2018 Russian Olympic ladies champion is having problems in 2019 because she's growing up or she's tired/injured. It becomes a timing game for which Russian female skaters will make the 2022 Olympics team.

It would be great the USFSA could teach reliable technique and mental toughness as a base for our female skaters. These core elements would give the US female skaters a broader base to develop a more competitive pool for the US to stand up against the Russians and the Japanese.

The great hope for the USA right now is that we have a pool of young skaters who are competing courageously to shine at international events. Hopefully, we can give them the tools to keep succeeding in the coming years toward the 2022 Olympics.
 
KaitlynB123 said:
Problem with the US ladies right now is that there is a defensive mentality where they are skating "not to lose" rather than skating "to win". Many of the comments in this forum reflect the same mindset where they would rather see a "clean skate" that often results in mediocre results.

Right now, the Russians and Japanese seem to be more assertive and skating to win. Instead of cheering on our skaters to go for it and win, we are criticizing the Russian women who are pushing the envelope and will probably dominate the podium at the next Olympics.
Click to expand...

I don't see it as a defensive mentality so much as a realistic one. Everyone knows who the power countries are in the women's field: Russia and Japan. That's not to say the US girls don't have a shot but, given the history and limitations of the two women competing, it's smarter to maximize their points with a clean albeit easier layout than it is to go balls-to-the-wall with a bunch of difficult content they have yet to execute successfully. Even if Bradie did skate cleanly with tougher content there's a high probability she still wouldn't win. She could medal but finishing first would be very improbable even against a less clean/difficult Russian/Japanese because politics.

Given both Bradie and Mariah are 21 and 22 respectively, there's a chance neither will be competitive come 2022. However, there are plenty of US youngsters pushing the envelope and practicing the tougher content (Liu, Cui, Harrell). As they continue moving up through the ranks the girls coming behind them will have to increase their content to keep up. That's how the sport pushes forward. Liu's win at nationals definitely started the train moving forward...it'll pick up steam over the next few years. Hopefully by 2021 we'll have skaters who can compete on the same technical level as the Russians and Japanese.

I don't expect the US to return to its glory days of winning gold and/or silver at every world championships but I do think the next generation will help keep the country in the mix. Right now, however, the best we can hope for is a 5th-10th place finish. Anything better than that will be a welcome surprise.
 
KaitlynB123 said:
Problem with the US ladies right now is that there is a defensive mentality where they are skating "not to lose" rather than skating "to win".
Click to expand...

I believe that mindset is how Michelle lost the Nagano Gold.

Sports Illustrated
"She (Michelle) was going for accuracy and
consistency," Carroll said later. "Her performance was very held
in. It was not the feeling of flying."
Click to expand...
 
wickedwitch said:
Bradie has been attempting a 3Lz-3Lo this season. I think that's very clearly her trying to win as opposed to skating "not to lose."
Click to expand...

Totally! For sure! Bradie wants it.

She came to this season with a new choreographer, better artistry and some good (and ratified) attempts at the 3lutz/3loop.

Apparently she will also do 2 3lutzes/3toes at the least in the free.....

I mean......
 
AxelAnnie said:
I believe that mindset is how Michelle lost the Nagano Gold.

Sports Illustrated
Click to expand...

Well, I said at the beginning of that Oly season that her Lyra program was not the right program to win the OGM. Sure, with an all-American audience that loved her she would connect. But in Nagano, it wasn't all Kwan a bees that would cheer for her no matter what. The difference between Philly and Nagano was the lack of Americans cheering and lifting her up. If she had performed the exact Nagano program in Philly, she still would have connected and gotten all those 6's. Internationally, many thought she was overrated with lower difficulty. It shouldn't have been a big surprise that Tara with her two 3/3s and high energy performance would connect to an international audience.
 
I think looking back we didn't realize how good we had it with the team of Ashley and Gracie. Even as inconsistent as they both were at Worlds they were a guarantee to keep the 3 spots they regained back in 2013 and they were good enough that even with mistakes that might have kept them off of the podium they would still finish in the top 5. Bradie and Mariah are simply not good enough or are lacking the jumps to really challenge the top girls.
 
Jammers said:
I think looking back we didn't realize how good we had it with the team of Ashley and Gracie. Even as inconsistent as they both were at Worlds they were a guarantee to keep the 3 spots they regained back in 2013 and they were good enough that even with mistakes that might have kept them off of the podium they would still finish in the top 5. Bradie and Mariah are simply not good enough or are lacking the jumps to really challenge the top girls.
Click to expand...
Mariah is lacking the Triple-lutz and Bradie is slowly building the PCS. However, both ladies have worked extremely hard to combat their respective weaknesses. Bradie has the fourth highest TES out of all the ladies competing at Saitama and Mariah is not far behind. If both ladies can keep it together, I’m sure things will work out greatly. Good luck to everyone competing!

Now, if we do not get the 3rd spot back for next year’s Worlds, the fight for the 2 spots will be between three to four ladies. That, in my opinion, will be very interesting to witness.
 
Jammers said:
Bradie and Mariah are simply not good enough or are lacking the jumps to really challenge the top girls.
Click to expand...

Bradie is a top girl :)

First place at 4CC after the SP aint nothing to bemoan. I mean she was the top girl just last month.

Beating Medev and others at AC proves she is a top girl. I think Bradie will be just fine!
 
I like Mariah. I do wonder though, has she tapped out, or do you think she will be able to deal with more difficult content?
 
Firedancer said:
New Mariah Bell article:
https://usfigureskatingfanzone.com/...ell-needs-self-belief-to-peak-in-saitama.aspx

It sounds like she has been training really well since 4CC. I hope she is able to finish her season with two clean programs.
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Mariah’s practices have been quite decent thus far, but the 3Lz keeps slipping away. If Mariah doesn’t fall on the single 3Lz, she falls on the 3Lz-2T-2Lo or vice-versa. Mariah can do it, but she needs to not let her legs give out and as Raf told her... fight through the exhaustion.
 
WillyElliot said:
Well, I said at the beginning of that Oly season that her Lyra program was not the right program to win the OGM. Sure, with an all-American audience that loved her she would connect. But in Nagano, it wasn't all Kwan a bees that would cheer for her no matter what. The difference between Philly and Nagano was the lack of Americans cheering and lifting her up. If she had performed the exact Nagano program in Philly, she still would have connected and gotten all those 6's. Internationally, many thought she was overrated with lower difficulty. It shouldn't have been a big surprise that Tara with her two 3/3s and high energy performance would connect to an international audience.
Click to expand...

Tara’s long program was better in Nagano than Philly. Michelle’s long program was better in Philly than Nagano. It’s really not that complicated.
 
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