U.S. Ladies [#24]: Starr-Ting Order/Detailed Classification

[VGThuy]

If I was on the selection committee and Glenn places ahead (especially by a small margin) of Bell, I'd send them both to 4CCs and tell them that the top finisher between the two gets the 2nd Worlds berth. That will give Glenn the chance to build some international rep and prove that she can be consistent across more than just one competition, and it gives Bell the chance to continue to work on fixing those pesky URs.

The only problem with this is that I don't think they should change selection procedures in the middle of the season like this. It makes it seem like they are giving Bell another chance when they wouldn't give Glenn that same consideration. If they want to have skate-offs at 4CC for World teams, I think the USFS needs to announce that before the Fall season starts and provide notice so every skater looking to compete at Nationals knows what to expect way ahead of time.

 

[Karen-W]

The only problem with this is that I don't think they should change selection procedures in the middle of the season like this. It makes it seem like they are giving Bell another chance when they wouldn't give Glenn that same consideration. If they want to have skate-offs at 4CC for World teams, I think the USFS needs to announce that before the Fall season starts and provide notice so every skater competing at Nationals knows what to expect.

I thought that only the National champ was guaranteed a Worlds spot. Aren't they now going with BOW or was that just for the Olympics?

 

[VGThuy]

I thought that only the National champ was guaranteed a Worlds spot. Aren't they now going with BOW or was that just for the Olympics?

Even if they were to use BOW, which I still think is how they select for Worlds but it so happens the rankings at Nationals tend to typically align with that criteria as no ladies skater with an undeniable BOW placed lower than someone who had like no international reputation there since 2014, it never included a skate-off at 4CC.

 

[aftershocks]

For those wondering about the body of work question:

Stats --
Mariah Bell was 5th at NHK; 4th at Skate Canada; 3rd at Golden Spin; 4th at Nebelhorn. And that's nothing to sneeze at. In addition, Bell had an even better 2016-2017 season, winning silver at Skate America, and two medals at a senior B and a summer comp; Bell's 2017-2018 season was middling: 6th and 9th at her two GPs, and 5th at 4CCs.

Amber Glenn placed 6th and 5th at 2 senior Bs this season; she was 10th at Cup of China and 8th at Lombardia in 2017-2018; in addition Glenn was 4th and 5th at her 2 senior Bs in 2016-2017.

 

[VGThuy]

I don't think BOW looks into two seasons ago. Only this current season and the season before. I still don't think Bell has done enough to overtake someone like Glenn if Glenn beats her at Nationals. I think USFS will only upend the rankings at Nationals if someone who has a world medal and current GP medals and made the GPF missed a spot at Worlds by just one place. It has to be something that seems over-the-top convincing like Wagner in 2014 when she placed 5th at Worlds the year before, brought home medals at the GP events and made the GPF and won the bronze there. They would rather just go with Nationals rankings and let the chips fall where it may.

 

[DimaToe]

For those wondering about the body of work question:

Stats --
Mariah Bell was 5th at NHK; 4th at Skate Canada; 3rd at Golden Spin; 4th at Nebelhorn. And that's nothing to sneeze at. In addition, Bell had an even better 2016-2017 season, winning silver at Skate America, and two medals at a senior B and a summer comp; Bell's 2017-2018 season was middling: 6th and 9th at her two GPs, and 5th at 4CCs.

Amber Glenn placed 6th and 5th at 2 senior Bs this season; she was 10th at Cup of China and 8th at Lombardia in 2017-2018; in addition Glenn was 4th and 5th at her 2 senior Bs in 2016-2017.

That season Medvedeva won worlds and Gabby Daleman was on the podium. The technical demand wasn’t at the level it is now and both skaters I mentioned might not even be competing at worlds this year...

 

[Coco]

Has Amber ever rotated 7 triples in one program? I'm hoping this is the year.

 

[aftershocks]

I still don't think Bell has done enough to overtake someone like Glenn if Glenn beats her at Nationals.

I think if you look at how the judges scored the sp, that tells us all we need to know, eh! Amber clearly skated better technically by a slight bit, but they kept her behind Mariah on PCS. IMO both ladies are obviously lovely PCS-wise, so they are fairly even in PCS categories, despite the judges scoring Amber a bit lower on PCS.

Just looking at this season's stats, since Bell had two GPs and performed decently well, that's a better BOW, no?

I really love both Mariah and Amber, and I just hope they each skate their best, as that's all they should ever ask of themselves. Skaters know they can't control judges' decisions or selection committees' decisions. They only have control over what they do on the ice.

 

[VGThuy]

I think if you look at the how the judges scored the sp, that tells us all we need to know, eh! Amber clearly skated better technically by a slight bit, but they kept her behind Mariah on PCS. They are both lovely PCS-wise.

Just looking at this season's stats, since Bell had two GPs and performed decently well, that's a better BOW, no?

I really love both Mariah and Amber, and I just hope they each skate their best, as that's all they should ever ask of themselves. Skaters know they can't control judges' decisions or selection committees' decisions. They only have control over what they do on the ice.

Remember, it's not just being better. Not all competitions are weighed the same. Nationals still has the heaviest weight and USFS would rather avoid having to select a World team that doesn't follow National rankings. Despite Bell having higher PCS, she is only one point ahead of Glenn meaning she can still lose to her. Bell doesn't have an undeniable record to be named on the World team if she's the third ranked senior-eligible lady at Nationals unless the rankings are like Bradie, Liu, Nakahara, Bell or something similar.

 

[aftershocks]

That season Medvedeva won worlds and Gabby Daleman was on the podium. The technical demand wasn’t at the level it is now and both skaters I mentioned might not even be competing at worlds this year...

What are you referencing exactly? I'm not understanding what you are trying to say.

 

[aftershocks]

Remember, it's not just being better. Not all competitions are weighed the same. Nationals still has the heaviest weight and USFS would rather avoid having to select a World team that doesn't follow National rankings. Despite Bell having higher PCS, she is only one point ahead of Glenn meaning she can still lose to her. Bell doesn't have an undeniable record to be named on the World team if she's the third ranked senior-eligible lady at Nationals unless the rankings are like Bradie, Liu, Nakahara, Bell or something similar.

Like I said, I love both ladies, but realistically they also both have struggled with nerves under pressure.

I'm not really sure what some of you are seeing, but the stats this season (and previous seasons) show us that Mariah is ahead of Amber on BOW stats, even if their talent level is fairly equal (with Amber even maybe having an edge technically). They both have got to show they can muster grit and consistency. That's the only way to build reputation and set yourself apart from other skaters with similar talent.

Even should Mariah lose to Amber, which is definitely possible, we do not know what USFS will decide. I think it depends upon how well both skate. If there's not much separating ether of them, the judges will seemingly give Mariah the edge, since that's what they did in the sp. I'm not saying that's right, as I would have liked to see Amber be in third at about 71+ pts over Mariah at 70+. As we can see, only percentage points separate them (Mariah at 70.30; Amber at 69.86 -- that's as tight as a drum). When that happens, I think it becomes obvious the judges are weighing and manipulating points based on perceived reputation internationally. Mariah's recognition quotient is higher, fairly or unfairly.

But sure, Amber can beat Mariah and end up making the World team. I'm not saying that won't happen. What I'm saying is that if they both skate well, the edge will be given to Mariah. All evidence points that way, fairly or unfairly. Moot point anyway, unless they both bring their absolute A-game. I'm rooting for them both. (And btw, another interesting stat: Mariah is 22 and Amber is 19).

USFS would rather avoid having to select a World team that doesn't follow National rankings.

Say what? I think there's evidence that proves your above presumption to not necessarily be the case. USFS has made a lot of debatable decisions re scoring and re selection assignments whether its Worlds or Olympics.

 

[aftershocks]

Sorry for so many back-to-back posts.

I haven't seen her name mentioned but despite the flub on the first jump I was really impressed with Megan Wessenburg. Her speed was amazing and she landed her jumps (great height!) like she was landing on a cloud, so soft Too bad from what I can tell like so many others she's a bit of a headcase

Yep, I mentioned Megan briefly. I think she definitely would have scored somewhere between 64 to 66 had she not flubbed her first jump. She's a good skater, but she has to go clean to be given credit due.

Also, Courtney Hicks. Such a great 3/3 combo; one of the best she's ever landed! And then the nerves or loss of concentration on the easy 2-axel. Sigh. So unfortunate, but also in some ways representative of what's happened for too long to far too many superbly talented U.S. ladies.

U.S. ladies have the top-notch goods, absolutely! But they need to do even more than just show it consistently these days, what with the huge talent that exists internationally among Russian & Japanese ladies in particular, and with South Korean ladies right there too. U.S. ladies have got to grab every opportunity to strut their stuff with confidence, self-belief and true grit!

 

[MacMadame]

I thought that only the National champ was guaranteed a Worlds spot. Aren't they now going with BOW or was that just for the Olympics?

They changed that rule a while back. Even the National Champion isn't guaranteed a spot these days.

 

[rinettoii]

Wow, sometimes I forget that Amber is only 19! I hope that Amber can continue skating to her potential in the freeskate and be sent to 4CC. It would be great for her to get a new higher SB and see her on the GP again.

 

[Bonjour Sherry]

Amber Glenn's skating was magnificent! I think you can make a strong case that she should have been 1st. But Bradie had two jumping passes in the 2nd half and was also strong as well..

I think the USFSA is noticeably trying to hold up Mariah with what I call a "BOW cushion" in the short program. This is in an attempt to obviate any need to use BOW justifications after the competition is over, should they find it necessary. It was not just a UR call - more importantly, Mariah two-footed the combination. So if this continues and Amber slays the long, I'd probably send Amber to Worlds.

However, Mariah's long is a great vehicle and successful so far this season. So I'd say with 80-90% confidence that she'll end up skating well and going to Worlds.

Ting Cui may have had a bad short, but she has a great shot at making it back into the top 6 with a strong long program. She was 11th after the short last year at Junior Nationals and ended up on the podium.

Courtney Hicks.. ugh. She landed a beautiful combo then had issues with her remaining jumping passes. What amazes me is how she manages to smile and put on a brave face everytime she crumbles in competition.

 

[Maximillian]

If Glenn beats Bell I don’t see why they would pick Bell over Glenn. Bell didnt medal on the GP, didn’t medal last year at nationals, and while respectable, was the 3rd U.S. at worlds last year placing 12th. The “body of work” argument just isn’t applicable in this instance. A post Olympic year is just not the time to pick favorites and the best time to just let nationals placements decide the championship teams.

Totally agree with this.

Have to say, woke up this morning (I live in Ireland) and saw the results and can't say I was too surprised to see Hicks down in 10th. SMH, never change, Courtney, never change...

 

[Frau Muller]

Christine Brennan for USA Today, on yesterday’s Sr Ladies SPs competition:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...ing-championships-american-future/2675524002/

 

[Nomad]

Totally agree with this.

Have to say, woke up this morning (I live in Ireland) and saw the results and can't say I was too surprised to see Hicks down in 10th. SMH, never change, Courtney, never change...

13th. I think 10 was her start order number.

 

[mtnskater]

I was live in the arena last night. Liu was simply amazing with her triple axel in the short. Seeing her burst into tears with the standing ovation was sweet. Bradie did her job. She has a head for competition thankfully. Bell lovely and mature. She often struggles with the 3/3 as we all know. So glad for Amber. A memorable moment. Picky note. She has got to lose those over the boot tights. They are a distraction from her lovely skating...looks like a practice tight. More tiffing for her would bring it up a notch. Ting broke my heart again. She has it all. Speed, gorgeous fluid light skating. Jump combos in the warm up were spot on perfect. Then splat in the competition. So frustrating with her amazing talent she can’t deliver. A perennial problem for many talented US ladies. Harrell’s jumps were eye popping with good presentation but her speed and skating skills not quite up to par yet. There is hope for US ladies!

 

[Coco]

Starr seems to have gained some speed and power over last year, but still some work to be done. I noticed she did a triple later than anyone else (2nd to last element) and there were some other nice touches.

I'm kind of glad she got the score she did, though, as having her name in the mix is a bit premature. Let her stay off of the radar so she can improve her skating skills. That can mess up your jumps for a while.

Her jump issues last night seemed as much due to nerves as anything else. I hope she comes out full force for the free.

 

[Stefanie]

So glad for Amber. A memorable moment. Picky note. She has got to lose those over the boot tights. They are a distraction from her lovely skating...looks like a practice tight. More tiffing for her would bring it up a notch.

I was watching it on TV and thought the same thing! They add too much bulk and I couldn't stop looking at them.

 

[Teamgracie]

Amber Glenn touched my heart with her program - I just thought it was beautiful!! I hope she has a good long program. Best wishes for her

 

[Sasha is DIVINE]

Amber is the complete package. I would love to see her on the podium here (at the top of it actually).

 

[kwanatic]

Very entertaining SP from the ladies:

Bradie: Excellent performance and not one sign of nerves. Very impressive. The score is definitely inflated by about 3-4 points; I'd expect her to score around 72/73 internationally, which is nothing to sneeze at btw. She's got some breathing room for the FS but she can't back off. If she skates cleanly I think the judges will give her a big enough cushion to hold Alysa off...but mistakes may open the door.

Alysa: Wow! She's improved quite a bit since the last time I saw her. Her jumps are small and a bit slow but the 3A was still very good. No doubt about the rotation there. I really loved Alysa's program. She was on the music, she performed and she looked like she was having a blast. That's refreshing to see. It lacked the maturity of the older girls but it had its own special charm. Excited to see what she can do in the FS.

Mariah: I think she was nervous. She's had much better skates than that performance wise. The SP has never been her forte but I'm glad she made it through this one without any major disasters. I'm thinking she may stick to the easier layout for her FS...she should IMO. A clean program is what she needs to stay in the top 3. If she tanks and Glenn skates better, Glenn may get the spot to worlds over her.

Amber: I'm not thrilled with her packaging (not a fan of the dress, the tights were tacky, and the choreo was lacking for me) BUT I was impressed with her finally turning in a strong SP. Her air position worries me (leaning and a bit loose) but she hit the jumps well. I did like the way she performed--lots of energy and emotion especially in the step sequence. If she can deliver in the FS she could finish top 3.

Hanna: Loved her! So much spunk and personality! She reminds me of Trusova: tiny girl, powerful jumps. The height on her opening combo was massive. Lots of growing to do but tons of potential there.

Emmy: Literally brought my mother to tears! She hasn't watched skating in a while but she was obsessed with Emmy and her performance. So exciting to see her pair her amazing performance skills with clean jumps. This SP is perfection and should be used as an example of skating to lyrics effectively. Her movements sing the lyrics with the music. She's remarkable.

Megan: Loved her power and speed. It sucks she missed the lutz...that definitely hurt her. Hoping she can bounce back in the FS.

Starr: Definitely not her best. She seemed a bit tight. A strong FS can move her up a few spaces. Fingers crossed.

Ting: Broke my heart. She has all of the potential to be a stunning and captivating skater...she just can't seem to put it together. Maybe with the pressure off she'll just skate her FS. If she goes clean she could post a monster score, possibly enough to launch her into the top 5 or 6 depending on how everyone else skates.

Courtney: Make that 5 years in a row. After she hit the 3-3 I thought she'd finally turned a corner...then the fall on the 2A and downgrade on the lutz. Oh well, maybe next year...

Julia Biechler: That Charlotte spiral to a back inside entrance into her layback was GORGEOUS!

Excited to see how this will end. Bradie is set to win back-to-back titles but one slip up and Alysa could pounce...Mariah and Amber are neck and neck with a spot to worlds on the line...lots of potential for movement from the skaters outside of the top 4 too. This should be good!

 

[mag]

Johnny(?) was right when he said Ting just seem to give up on her jumps. It looked like she just sat down without even trying to save them. That's too bad because the program is lovely

In my experience, and I unfortunately have a fair amount of experience with this sort of program, it is not that she gives up on her jumps. It is the exact opposite. She is confident, usually everything is there in practice, she goes into the jump knowing she will land it, and then suddenly finds herself on her backside without warning.

It is extremely frustrating for the skater and made even worse by people (Johnny) making these sorts of uniformed comments. Trying to fix a jump that is technically fine and there was no reason for the fall is exceedingly difficult.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Amber: I'm not thrilled with her packaging (not a fan of the dress,

I believe its a carry over from "Send In The Clowns" program.

 

[TonyasBrokenLace]

Very entertaining SP from the ladies:

Bradie: Excellent performance and not one sign of nerves. Very impressive. The score is definitely inflated by about 3-4 points; I'd expect her to score around 72/73 internationally, which is nothing to sneeze at btw. She's got some breathing room for the FS but she can't back off. If she skates cleanly I think the judges will give her a big enough cushion to hold Alysa off...but mistakes may open the door.

Alysa: Wow! She's improved quite a bit since the last time I saw her. Her jumps are small and a bit slow but the 3A was still very good. No doubt about the rotation there. I really loved Alysa's program. She was on the music, she performed and she looked like she was having a blast. That's refreshing to see. It lacked the maturity of the older girls but it had its own special charm. Excited to see what she can do in the FS.

Mariah: I think she was nervous. She's had much better skates than that performance wise. The SP has never been her forte but I'm glad she made it through this one without any major disasters. I'm thinking she may stick to the easier layout for her FS...she should IMO. A clean program is what she needs to stay in the top 3. If she tanks and Glenn skates better, Glenn may get the spot to worlds over her.

Amber: I'm not thrilled with her packaging (not a fan of the dress, the tights were tacky, and the choreo was lacking for me) BUT I was impressed with her finally turning in a strong SP. Her air position worries me (leaning and a bit loose) but she hit the jumps well. I did like the way she performed--lots of energy and emotion especially in the step sequence. If she can deliver in the FS she could finish top 3.

Hanna: Loved her! So much spunk and personality! She reminds me of Trusova: tiny girl, powerful jumps. The height on her opening combo was massive. Lots of growing to do but tons of potential there.

Emmy: Literally brought my mother to tears! She hasn't watched skating in a while but she was obsessed with Emmy and her performance. So exciting to see her pair her amazing performance skills with clean jumps. This SP is perfection and should be used as an example of skating to lyrics effectively. Her movements sing the lyrics with the music. She's remarkable.

Megan: Loved her power and speed. It sucks she missed the lutz...that definitely hurt her. Hoping she can bounce back in the FS.

Starr: Definitely not her best. She seemed a bit tight. A strong FS can move her up a few spaces. Fingers crossed.

Ting: Broke my heart. She has all of the potential to be a stunning and captivating skater...she just can't seem to put it together. Maybe with the pressure off she'll just skate her FS. If she goes clean she could post a monster score, possibly enough to launch her into the top 5 or 6 depending on how everyone else skates.

Courtney: Make that 5 years in a row. After she hit the 3-3 I thought she'd finally turned a corner...then the fall on the 2A and downgrade on the lutz. Oh well, maybe next year...

Julia Biechler: That Charlotte spiral to a back inside entrance into her layback was GORGEOUS!

Excited to see how this will end. Bradie is set to win back-to-back titles but one slip up and Alysa could pounce...Mariah and Amber are neck and neck with a spot to worlds on the line...lots of potential for movement from the skaters outside of the top 4 too. This should be good!

Did you look at the protocols? Interested in your opinion on Julia Biechler’s PCS. I thought they were extremely low. I felt she deserved 8’s/9’s for her actual skating skills.

 

[Coco]

ITA regarding Julia. I hope we see more of her.

Love, love love her dress, too. Perfect for her shape and style of movement. She looked amazing out there.

We were sitting by her family, apparently. She came into the stands to visit with them later in the night, and she looked soooo young in person! But so mature and elegant on the ice!

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

YouTubers think Amber was underscored too.

LOL, she looks like Sotskova's lost sister... kinda true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQgVxWx6pwU

 

[aftershocks]

Maybe your way with thread titles jinxed Starr & Ting @Vagabond.

Just kidding. Both ladies are young and still have a lot to learn and to fine-tune, especially under pressure. They can use this experience for growth, as I recall Charlie White indicated in his commentary.

YouTubers think Amber was underscored too.

LOL, she looks like Sotskova's lost sister... kinda true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQgVxWx6pwU

Maybe so, but she sure as heck don't skate like Sotskova's lost sister. Even Sotskova fans would have to admit Amber is much more sublime. Amber is really feeling this music! I hope she will always find music that she can draw this kind of passion and freedom from.