2017 Grand Prix LADIES: your off-season thoughts on matchups, TBD spots?

Marco

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I'm not giving up until the Russian test skates, then I'll let it go.

I guess it largely depends on what the Fed wants / who the Fed likes. If the Fed likes the skater, they can easily brush any subpar performances off as early season jitters. If the Fed doesn't like the skater, then yes perhaps a bad skate there can have immediate consequences in terms of support.

I believe if Sotnitkova had wanted to skate at the GPs, she and Plushenko would at least voice out her wish, so that she could lock in an event or two and only pull out later when she really isn't ready.
 

DobrinFan

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I believe if Sotnitkova had wanted to skate at the GPs, she and Plushenko would at least voice out her wish, so that she could lock in an event or two and only pull out later when she really isn't ready.

How exactly would she had locked up an event or 2? She has no SB and WR of 80. In other words no guarantee of getting 1 GP event let alone 2. The only thing she could have realistically hoped for is a host pick but many ladies are fighting for that 1 spot.
 
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clairecloutier

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Unless someone goes completely viral over the summer, I think it is going to be a toss-up between Polina (giving her a shot at making GPF) and Tessa.

Honestly curious why you think Tessa is one of the top contenders for SA. Let's face it, last season she had no international accomplishments and bombed badly in the FS at Nationals. Are you saying she should get it based on potential and one good SP at Natls?
 

Marco

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How exactly would she had locked up an event or 2? She has no SB and WR of 80. In other words no guarantee of getting 1 GP event let alone 2. The only thing she could have realistically hoped for is a host pick but many ladies are fighting for that 1 spot.

As a returning skater? I honestly don't know how it works anymore though. Rules keep changing and are being applied quite inconsistently.

Honestly curious why you think Tessa is one of the top contenders for SA. Let's face it, last season she had no international accomplishments and bombed badly in the FS at Nationals. Are you saying she should get it based on potential and one good SP at Natls?

Pure politics of course. Didn't Caroline Zhang also get a couple of SA invites during her slower years?
 

AngieNikodinovLove

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Pure politics of course. Didn't Caroline Zhang also get a couple of SA invites during her slower years?

Yes, and one of them finished last.

I think Miner and her, sadly, their time has passed.

Im all for Polina, Hicks, Pierce, Glenn and Tennell getting the SkAm spot first.
 

kwanatic

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@kwanatic, would you like to cross-post/share your GP ladies thoughts here? :)

Sure! I guess it does make more sense in this thread anyway, lol! :lol:

Repost from the other thread:

I follow the junior ladies the same way I follow the senior ladies so I'm really excited about the newbies this year. Main newbie seniors are going to be Alina Zagitova, Marin Honda, Polina Tsurskaya, Kaori Sakamoto and Yuna Shiraiwa.

Zagitova is probably going to make the biggest splash. She's Russian, she's an Eteri protege, and she can land all of her jumps in the bonus. For me she was lacking depth as a skater last year (nothing but jumps really) but if her team can upgrade her programs and coax a bit more of a performance out of her she'd be really good. I expect to see her on every podium whether she improves her presentation or not. Just the trend of things...

Honda is the one I'm most looking forward to seeing. She's a dream. Very soft lyrical style, great knees, lovely edges, great connection to her music and choreo, and she's very polished. She's definitely ready to be a senior. In addition to the aesthetics of her skating Marin is strong technically too (nice jumps, good spins, etc.). She can be a temperamental skater from time to time but overall she's a strong competitor. I expect to see her on the podium as well.

Tsurskaya is the most effortless jumper Russia has. Her jumps are big, airy and light with good technique, lots of speed, coverage and ride out. She grew a lot last season in terms of her presentation which should help her fit into that senior role easily. Tsurskaya is a bit injury prone though so I don't know how durable she'll be for the season. However, if she skates well she'll medal at her events too.

Kaori Sakamoto hasn't gotten as much attention as Marin but she's a strong skater. She's the Japanese junior champ and she won bronze at the Final and at junior worlds. Kaori's overall skating was a bit blah in terms of her appeal last season but she's a powerhouse: fast, great edges, huge jumps and she's a steady competitor. If her team has revamped her packaging she could turn some heads this season. She'd probably be my dark horse pick.

Yuna Shiraiwa is another who hasn't gotten as much attention. She was a top 5 finisher on the JGP and finished top 5 at junior worlds the last two seasons (5th last year). She's solid overall but right now she's a generically pleasant skater a la Mai Mihara. She needs better packaging to catch people's eye. I think she'd be a solid 5th-7th in her events this season.


Last season's crop of juniors was the best I'd seen in a long time so I'm super excited to see how they will shake up the standings this season. There are several who are still on the junior level (Eunsoo Lim, Anastasiia Gubanova, Rika Kihira) who we'll hopefully see in the 2018-2019 season and beyond.
 

RoseRed

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Zagitova is probably going to make the biggest splash. She's Russian, she's an Eteri protege, and she can land all of her jumps in the bonus. For me she was lacking depth as a skater last year (nothing but jumps really) but if her team can upgrade her programs and coax a bit more of a performance out of her she'd be really good. I expect to see her on every podium whether she improves her presentation or not. Just the trend of things...

Honda is the one I'm most looking forward to seeing. She's a dream. Very soft lyrical style, great knees, lovely edges, great connection to her music and choreo, and she's very polished. She's definitely ready to be a senior. In addition to the aesthetics of her skating Marin is strong technically too (nice jumps, good spins, etc.). She can be a temperamental skater from time to time but overall she's a strong competitor. I expect to see her on the podium as well.

Tsurskaya is the most effortless jumper Russia has. Her jumps are big, airy and light with good technique, lots of speed, coverage and ride out. She grew a lot last season in terms of her presentation which should help her fit into that senior role easily. Tsurskaya is a bit injury prone though so I don't know how durable she'll be for the season. However, if she skates well she'll medal at her events too.

I'll be interested to see how these three especially stack up at their first GPs.

At Skate Canada, Marin faces plenty of strong ladies: Kaetlyn Osmond, Ashley Wagner, Karen Chen, and Anna Pogorilaya. Kaetlyn is the most solid of those 4 imo, and Karen and Anna are more wild cards. Karen because consistency so far isn't something she's shown a lot of, and Anna because of what happened at Worlds. I'd be shocked if Kaetlyn wasn't at least on the podium, so there's a pretty good chance for Marin to be one of the other two medalists. But Ashley and Anna do have higher SBs than Marin (Ashley's was at WTT, but she's scored high in previous seasons too), and Karen is close. Obviously that doesn't mean they'll beat Marin, but it is conceivable that she could end up 4th if two of them deliver really well. Then at CoC, she has Alina, who'll probably beat her if both deliver (like at JWC), Gabby who is capable of it (Marin is also capable of beating her I'd say), Mai who is quite strong technically, Wakaba who's beat her at Japanese nationals the last couple of years, and Elena Radionova who had an up and down season, but still had GP medals last season. So again, she's a strong contender, but the fields are deep.

I'm more sure about Alina medalling at both events due to her super strong tech score. At IdF, she has Kaetlyn and Mai Mihara as her biggest competition, so even if they beat her, she'd get a medal. And as for Polina, at NHK, she has Evgenia, Satoko, and Carolina as the biggest names. If Satoko comes back strong from her injury (and doesn't get UR calls) and Carolina gives a strong performance with improved tech, maybe even a good skate from Polina could miss the podium, but that field seems fairly open behind Evgenia. And then SA is another crowded field, with Polina T., Gabby, Satoko, Anna, Ashley and Karen, who can all beat each other depending on how strong they skate.
 

Karpenko

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I really hope Caroline gets the Skam TBA, she deserves a GP IMO because of Gracie Gold (bless her) getting two of them. I know the ISU ranking, seeded skaters, time away from competition, yadda yadda, but she's currently top 5 in the US and was an alternate for 2017 Worlds. She deserves a GP assignment.

I have no idea how to predict any of the competitions, other than Medvedeva will win both of them. There will probably be at least 3 Russian ladies in the final. That's all I've got so far.
 

personwhoishere

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I'll be interested to see how these three especially stack up at their first GPs.

At Skate Canada, Marin faces plenty of strong ladies: Kaetlyn Osmond, Ashley Wagner, Karen Chen, and Anna Pogorilaya. Kaetlyn is the most solid of those 4 imo, and Karen and Anna are more wild cards.

You know the landscape of ladies skating has changed dramatically when Kaetlyn Osmond is being considered the most "solid" skater an event. :lol:
Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled, it's just this time last year no one would've made a statement like that.
 

RoseRed

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You know the landscape of ladies skating has changed dramatically when Kaetlyn Osmond is being considered the most "solid" skater an event. :lol:
Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled, it's just this time last year no one would've made a statement like that.
I know, I paused when I wrote that for the same reason. She really moved up the ranks last season.
 

Karpenko

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She still has to hit though, but if she does she'll easily make the final. The only thing holding Osmond back is her competitive nerves, she's so improved but so inconsistent. I just can't handle it, those huge falls and weird mistakes just drive me up the wall, but she's also a world silver medalist. If she can finally do a squeaky clean competition she'll be the only non-Russian that could challenge Janny next year IMO (who knows though, there's probably going to be some surprises next year outside of Janny winning).

I really hope they went with her personality more this time in her program choices, I miss the sassy 2013 number. She's massively improved since then so I'd imagine a program like that for her would make a huge impact. Don't contain that charisma anymore, unleash the beast and make it sparkle. :glamor:
 

Dobre

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If she can finally do a squeaky clean competition she'll be the only non-Russian that could challenge Janny next year IMO.

Quiz time: Medvedeva was beaten on base value by a non-Russian during both the free skate at Worlds and the free skate at World Team Trophy this year.

Know who? (Also defeated Osmond on TES in the FS by 4.2 points at Worlds).

The same athlete was defeated on base value & TES by a junior-now-moving-up-to-seniors during the free skate at their nationals.

Know who?
 
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Spun Silver

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Quiz time: Medvedeva was beaten on base value by a non-Russian during both the free skate at Worlds and the free skate at World Team Trophy this year.

Know who? (Also defeated Osmond on TES in the FS by 4.2 points at Worlds).

The same athlete was defeated on base value & TES by a junior-now-moving-up-to-seniors during the free skate at their nationals.

Know who?
Daleman, Mihara (Higuchi)?
 

Karpenko

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I know I'm wrong but I'll say Michelle Kwan. :glamor:

And Yuzuru Hanyu :summer:

It has to be Mihara (or Higuchi)

Japan could easily upset all of the Canadian ladies/Americans/Russians except for Medvedeva next season. I'm not counting them out, and I'm excited to see ALL of them.
 
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Karpenko

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Quiz time: Medvedeva was beaten on base value by a non-Russian during both the free skate at Worlds and the free skate at World Team Trophy this year.

Know who? (Also defeated Osmond on TES in the FS by 4.2 points at Worlds).

The same athlete was defeated on base value & TES by a junior-now-moving-up-to-seniors during the free skate at their nationals.

Know who?

So I actually bothered to look it up, and it's Mai Mihara.

Bless your heart if you think she has enough time to get anywhere near Medvedeva on the second mark though. Janny will be pulling in the 9.5-10's next season, a lot of people might not be ready for that or willing to accept it.

Please don't fool yourself into thinking that isn't going to happen (not singling you out @Dobre but just a rant/PSA to fans in general about Med's scoring), because it is. It doesn't really matter if it's 'deserved or not', those scores will be there. Why wouldn't they be, when they've been there this entire time and only keep going up? She never misses and keeps improving. She has every single world record, whether she 'should' have them or not. If she doesn't biff it up somehow, she's in for a big coronation this year. Respect her authoritah.

She could be skating to bee sounds and it'll be musical and magnificent, even if she's swatting at bees because of Averbukh. They will give her high marks for how artistic the bee swatting is, how much they respect her for hitting all the damn time, and how it's all done on the buzz of the music. I mean this year alone she waved, she rang, she stared, she wandered the streets through a terrible tragedy (while George Bush speaks), she got her picture taken, SPASIBA, she jumped rope. 10.

Not enough whine, or the following... :rolleyes: :argue: :lynch: :scream::huh: :yikes: :soapbox: all season long changed a thing or phased her one bit, so I'd get prepared. [/PSA]

That said I LOVE Mai Mihara's skating :swoon: and would love to see an artistic growth from her!
 
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Karpenko

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And to continue, you can think that Marin Honda is the best thing since sliced bread (I'm not quite there, more like bread that hadn't been sliced yet. A very worthy future champion who I enjoy more than Medvedeva) and she's going to be brand new. She can have triple axels and clean programs next year. She's brand new and will not be getting the PCS to compete with Medvedeva (whether or not you think she deserves to is irrelevant.), and Med's GOE is always there for her no matter what. Mao didn't have someone with Med's PCS to contend with when she turned senior in 2006, so that argument isn't working IMO.

Same for Zagitova. I also don't understand why some seem to think the newbies won't fold in an Olympic season, while Evgenia possibly could? In what universe?! I'd bet on Medvedeva hitting over anything and everything in figure skating.

All of y'all dreamers need to prepare yourselves for what is very likely going to happen with the OGM. She's given no dents in that armor to speak of and deserves some damn respect for it by now (from some people who still refuse to show it, nobody in particular but you all know who you are).

Forgive my rant and PSA, it's been building up since the GPF and maybe a bit OTT in this thread - but just get with it already. She's going places and not budging.
 
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mag

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@Karpenko ITA about Med. She is not going anywhere and it will be a fight to the end. I certainly don't see her folding under pressure. I do think her PCS is a bit high, but I think that is directly connected to her consistency. The judges are totally relaxed when she skates. They know she will be clean, or if there is a small mistake it will have absolutely no effect on the rest of the program. It puts them in a good place mentally and they reward her for that. This is not a criticism of either the judges or Med. It is simply the way the brain works.

The opposite is true of Osmond. She should, by direct comparison, generally get higher PCS than Med. She has better skating skills, edges, speed, better quality jumps, when she lands them, and IMHO, better musical interpretation. That said, I believe the judges are on edge when Osmond takes the ice. Will she hit it or will she zamboni the ice with her butt? The judges are not relaxed and ready to enjoy the show, they are on edge. That affects the way the brain interprets what they see.

Now if Osmond can come out this season with fab programs and be consistently clean throughout the GP and nationals, then, sports fans, we will have a horse race at the Olympics! I would still say Med has the advantage, but the gap will be smaller.
 

Spun Silver

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And to continue, you can think that Marin Honda is the best thing since sliced bread (I'm not quite there, more like bread that hadn't been sliced yet. A very worthy future champion who I enjoy more than Medvedeva) and she's going to be brand new. She can have triple axels and clean programs next year. She's brand new and will not be getting the PCS to compete with Medvedeva (whether or not you think she deserves to is irrelevant.), and Med's GOE is always there for her no matter what. Mao didn't have someone with Med's PCS to contend with when she turned senior in 2006, so that argument isn't working IMO.

Same for Zagitova. I also don't understand why some seem to think the newbies won't fold in an Olympic season, while Evgenia possibly could? In what universe?! I'd bet on Medvedeva hitting over anything and everything in figure skating.

All of y'all dreamers need to prepare yourselves for what is very likely going to happen with the OGM. She's given no dents in that armor to speak of and deserves some damn respect for it by now (from some people who still refuse to show it, nobody in particular but you all know who you are).

Forgive my rant and PSA, it's been building up since the GPF and maybe a bit OTT in this thread - but just get with it already. She's going places and not budging.
You and @mag are probably right. I am not very keen on Med and to me consistency + boring still equals boring, but I still expect she will win the OGM. i am not pinning my hopes on Honda either. But I think in time Zagitova can surpass Med because she has the technique, the consistency and she's not boring! Can she do it her very first year in seniors, and the Olympic season? Um, not likely... but let me dream for a few months.
 

Dobre

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And to continue, you can think that Marin Honda is the best thing since sliced bread (I'm not quite there, more like bread that hadn't been sliced yet.)

Marin is not the junior who defeated Mai's TES in the free skate at Japanese Nationals;).

I tend to fall in love with underdogs that are more underdog material than Marin. LOL. I like her, but tug-on-my heartstrings underdog material she is not. Marin is lovely though. I am looking forward to seeing her live at Skate Canada.

Mai Mihara went from being @the 4th best Japanese junior lady last season to 5th in the World. I'd say climbing five spots is nothing compared to that; but I expect Medvedeva will win. Not because I think she is the greatest female skater of the current generation but because I think she is the greatest competitor. (She wouldn't be the first greatest competitor of her generation to lose if she did, but I wouldn't bet against her. Though Zagitova was certainly rock material this season as well).

While we're at it, Kaetlyn went from the 24th season's best last season (right behind . . . Mai Mihara) to the 4th best SB this season (still right behind . . . Mai Mihara). Both feats are pretty impressive.
 

kwanatic

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I honestly have nothing against Evgenia and I respect the hell out of her for being so consistent all the time. It's rather remarkable when you think about it. Her misses are few and far between and the negative points of her skating are few and minor in the grand scheme of things. I agree with @Karpenko about being relaxed when you watch her. She's very reliable to the point where when she does make a mistake it's shocking. She's the most steely competitor I've ever seen and she's definitely set up for a major coronation this season if everything remains the same.

I still find her lack of artistic range a bit aggravating (all of her programs are extremely similar in their feel/tone/expression) but you can't deny that she's amazing. I find her scores to be borderline ridiculous but the truth is she's so far ahead of the field it really doesn't matter how much she wins by anymore. I wouldn't dispute any of her victories so in that sense, a win is a win regardless of the score. And it's not like she's competing against a weak field; there are some great skaters out there but no one comes close to her.

It's just the way it is. I don't see anything other than an injury of some sort slowing her down. Puberty was the question mark last season but it seems to have been very kind to her. I think she's unstoppable.

There are a number of skaters I prefer to her but until they can deliver the way she does, there's nothing to discuss. She's the poo, plain and simple. It's something I've accepted and acknowledge without hesitation. I've never seen a more dominant competitor in this field.
 

Spun Silver

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Marin is not the junior who defeated Mai's TES in the free skate at Japanese Nationals;).

I tend to fall in love with underdogs that are more underdog material than Marin. LOL. I like her, but tug-on-my heartstrings underdog material she is not. Marin is lovely though. I am looking forward to seeing her live at Skate Canada.

Mai Mihara went from being @the 4th best Japanese junior lady last season to 5th in the World. I'd say climbing five spots is nothing compared to that; but I expect Medvedeva will win. Not because I think she is the greatest female skater of the current generation but because I think she is the greatest competitor. (She wouldn't be the first greatest competitor of her generation to lose if she did, but I wouldn't bet against her. Though Zagitova was certainly rock material this season as well).

While we're at it, Kaetlyn went from the 24th season's best last season (right behind . . . Mai Mihara) to the 4th best SB this season (still right behind . . . Mai Mihara). Both feats are pretty impressive.

You are starting to sound like a baseball announcer with these fabulous stats. I mean that only in the best way.
 
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Karpenko

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Don't get me wrong Medvedeva dislikers - I totally see where every critique is coming from. I've done it myself. But the judges have to turn their taste off when evaluating her based on COP. She's musical, she's beautiful, she's fluid and has lots of transitions.

One thing about her that you can't see on TV is that she does her jumps all on different areas of the ice, and she's always creating interesting patterns with lots of ice coverage. It wasn't until I saw Yuna Kim live in 2009 that I was :wideeyes: about her skating skills and the control she had, I was blown away by her and can't believe some of the things I'd used to harp on about her (Unpointed toe, lack of extension, etc). Yuna Kim has way better SS than anyone I've ever seen in ladies skating, but point is she might be less :yawn: when you see her in the rink, in relation to the other ladies. Her programs are easy for her.

Osmond not beating Med has so much to do with Osmond falling more times than I can even count. You can't build momentum and then fall apart. Nope. Missed opportunity at this point, now you have 8 months to get it together compared to Evgenia (compared to Evgenia's 2 entire seasons). I would think Kaetlyn winning silver would be like a gold to her at this point, at least until Janny retires. I hope those who want someone else to win will still be fair with Evgenia if it doesn't happen.

Meanwhile, Janny keeps hitting, so if it's ever a toss-up between them - what a complete and total slap in the face it'd be to Evgenia if they indeed DID go with Osmond. I think at some point last season, we all needed to step back and realize that Janny is the poo. She is a massive competitor who can break ever faux paux in existence and still kick every bodies :kickass:

Plus she's a rebel just for kicks now. She's been feelin' in since 1966 (2016) now. Might be over now, but she feels it still. :whistle:

No matter what they go with for her programs next year, the rest of the field is completely screwed unless she blows it.
 

clairecloutier

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I get it @Karpenko that Medvedeva is incredibly dominant. But sorry, I am still ((yawn emoticon?)) so far. And I have seen Med live twice, and it was no revelation. I saw Yuna live once, and that was a singular, not-to-be-forgotten experience, totally :wideeyes:, as you put it. Seeing Med live evoked no similar emotions/appreciation in me.

In the WTT LP, I enjoyed Med more than I probably ever have before, and for the first time in a while, I felt something from her skating. If she continues in that vein next year (and gets some half-decent programs), maybe I'll become more appreciative.

For now, I respect that she is technically brilliant.
 

Karpenko

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I just think it's unrealistic to expect some sort of miracle, that's my whole point really. The judges keep showering her with love, that doesn't mean we have to do the same or agree with it, but it does mean that people shouldn't be surprised (or overly butt hurt) about it if it happens next year. This is one of the most obvious things I've ever seen. She does at the very least deserve massive respect IMO.

And yes, no ifs ands or buts about it, Yuna Kim > Janny. I don't even have to see Janny live to realize that, but we're left with a different set of competitors now.

And for the record, for me, as far as enjoyment goes: Mao, Carolina, Lipnitskaya, Yuna, Marin Honda, Tuktamysheva, Pogorilaya, Ashley, Karen Chen, Leonova, Surya Bonaly > Evgenia Medvedeva, but that doesn't mean that she's not the best. Acknowledging that someone is the best, even if you think they're boring, is what I'm getting at. You can't argue that anyone else should have beaten her for 2 years now really, so why expect some sort of miracle next year when she'll be that much more experienced?

I'm not saying you have to enjoy her :p it's kind of hard with all of the literal choreography, but that it shouldn't be a huge punch in the gut if your favorite doesn't beat her at the Olympics.
 
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Karpenko

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My god I've turned this into Janny overkill :barefoot: I just chose this thread for the PSA and could've scaled back a bit. :shuffle:

Let's talk about Satoko. I'm extremely interested to see how tiny queen Satoko Miyahara (who also > Janny for me, I forgot her above because I was going to town) rebounds next season! :cheer: With good health and two detailed programs, I think she's got a great shot at the GPF since she's the reigning silver medalist. She's being forgotten amidst the Higuchi/Mihara/Honda hype train. I fully expect a healthy Satoko to make the top 5 in Pyeongchang. She's also someone who I'd give higher CH marks to than Medvedeva.
 

clairecloutier

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Right @Karpenko. I'm not arguing that Medvedeva won't win. It certainly looks like she will. It's just that it's possible to acknowledge that she will win, but still not be excited about her or agree with her PCS marks.

I have to be honest and say that this entire quad in senior ladies has been very forgettable to me. I am more excited about what may lie ahead in the quad to come.
 

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