U.S. Women [#3]: Skating Clean

[Marco]

@Louis ' comments were fair and he had said the same about Karen a while ago before China and France. That said, it wasn't like her UR problems were a secret from the Fed or a new thing this season. Same for Alysa and Mariah - both had jump issues too. Mariah didn't even have a sal at Worlds. It was simply a shame that Amber and Lindsay didn't step up when they could have - not just at Nationals but also over the entire season, and Bradie was too injured, to make things more competitive. No one was exactly doing Karen any favours but it was more so that her competitors couldn't catch up even though her jumps were handicapped.

Happy for Alysa, but sad for Mariah. Like Karen, this was probably her last shot as her jumps start to desert them.

 

[Karen-W]

I'm really enjoying all the moral panic about Karen's competing at Worlds and representing the U.S. internationally in the Fall. Think of the children!!! Down to listing all of her URs from when she was a juvenile. Yeah, they should totally consider how skater's are called with international panels before selecting the Olympic team and not just use National results...oh wait, they do! I think Karen's scores were equivalent or better than any other women internationally save Liu, so...

Actually, Mariah had the highest score of the season after Alysa, and Amber was within a 1.5 of Karen's SB, IIRC.

https://results.isu.org/isujsstat/sb2021-22/sbtswto.htm

Audrey Shin also, btw, managed to beat Karen's SB at 4CCs. We'll see if Lindsay can best it in her last comp of the season at Jr Worlds in a few weeks.

Karen was in Group 3 priority status ahead of Amber & Lindsay in Group 4 by virtue of her Worlds 2021 result. Which is fair. The skaters who earned that priority status across all disciplines got there fair and square, but I don't see any reason why they should have necessarily been prioritized over the skaters/teams who were in Group 4 status going into Nationals. While achieving a Top 10 result is important, I don't buy into the notion that any of the skaters/teams who were in Group 3 were necessarily better bets at managing that feat at the Olympics than the ones who were in Group 4.

FWIW, looking at both the Olympic & Worlds 1st alternates -

Lindsay's SB (which was at one of her JGPs) as well as both her Challenge Cup and Warsaw Cup scores were all higher than Karen's Olympics Women's event score (though Karen's combined scores for the TE would have been higher) and would have landed her somewhere around 12th or 13th vs Karen's 16th.

Amber's SB (SkAm) would have placed her 6th at Worlds, so one place higher than Karen, but about 9 points better.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but I'm not buying the argument that Karen is so much appreciably better than either of the 1st alternates. She's wildly inconsistent, regardless of the high PCS she receives. Think how much higher she'd be scoring if she actually had the technical side dialed in. Argue in favor of PCS all you want but TES matters too.

 

[Deleted member 221]

I've thought it would be really handy if there was a computer-based system that would record takeoff edges, pre-rotation and landing rotation on the ice. There would need to be agreement on what is acceptable, but after that, it would eliminate a whole lot of the argle-bargle and rampant inconsistency between callers.

We may be close to that point, at least for the elite levels. During the Olympics, the cameras were displaying the skaters' jump height, down to the centimeter*. This is a slightly easier computer vision application than jump rotation, but I'd think a computer vision algorithm could be trained to do it, at least on replay. It could probably also learn to read the tracings, although getting the cameras in place might be tricky. And the contrast of the tracing v. the ice v. other "noise" from previous skaters could be an issue.

*Karen Chen, IIRC, had one of the higher totals among women, with 0.4m+ lutzes. While we're scrutinizing her rotations, I'm also OK if she gets a bonus for a lutz that's a good 10cm higher than many others.

 

[Karen-W]

I've thought it would be really handy if there was a computer-based system that would record takeoff edges, pre-rotation and landing rotation on the ice. There would need to be agreement on what is acceptable, but after that, it would eliminate a whole lot of the argle-bargle and rampant inconsistency between callers.

We may be close to that point, at least for the elite levels. During the Olympics, the cameras were displaying the skaters' jump height, down to the centimeter*. This is a slightly easier computer vision application than jump rotation, but I'd think a computer vision algorithm could be trained to do it, at least on replay. It could probably also learn to read the tracings, although getting the cameras in place might be tricky. And the contrast of the tracing v. the ice v. other "noise" from previous skaters could be an issue.

*Karen Chen, IIRC, had one of the higher totals among women, with 0.4m+ lutzes. While we're scrutinizing her rotations, I'm also OK if she gets a bonus for a lutz that's a good 10cm higher than many others.

Here's the link to the Omega cameras they had at the Olympics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTXr-YalcWU

It looks like they're using 3D tech to assess/evaluate the skater's body as well, which might be able to determine the rotations.

 

[Wyliefan]

I'm really enjoying all the moral panic about Karen's competing at Worlds and representing the U.S. internationally in the Fall. Think of the children!!! Down to listing all of her URs from when she was a juvenile. Yeah, they should totally consider how skater's are called with international panels before selecting the Olympic team and not just use National results...oh wait, they do! I think Karen's scores were equivalent or better than any other women internationally save Liu, so...

And then there's all the handwringing over injured skaters daring to show their faces. How is it that Loena is a heroine for showing up injured and Karen should be remorseful for doing the same?

 

[VGThuy]

People act like Karen didn’t earn her spots at Nationals or something. It’s not like she placed behind all these wonderful people and was named to the Olympic team anyway.

 

[barbk]

I'm really enjoying all the moral panic about Karen's competing at Worlds and representing the U.S. internationally in the Fall. Think of the children!!! Down to listing all of her URs from when she was a juvenile. Yeah, they should totally consider how skater's are called with international panels before selecting the Olympic team and not just use National results...oh wait, they do! I think Karen's scores were equivalent or better than any other women internationally save Liu, so...

Unless she was skating junior somewhere this fall, every comp I listed for her was a senior event.

And then there's all the handwringing over injured skaters daring to show their faces. How is it that Loena is a heroine for showing up injured and Karen should be remorseful for doing the same?

Well, unlike Karen, Leona earned positive GOE on all her jump elements in the SP at Worlds and 6 of her jump elements in the Free. So, despite her injury, it didn't seem to affect her ability to rotate and land jumps.

I get Karen going to the Olympics. If she wasn't landing jumps in practice at home, she probably should have passed on Worlds.

 

[concorde]

What is going on with Bradie? I know that she was injured this season but what about future plans.

 

[Coco]

And then there's all the handwringing over injured skaters daring to show their faces. How is it that Loena is a heroine for showing up injured and Karen should be remorseful for doing the same?

I think you are overstating or misstating what happened and what people are reacting to.

The issue is how the injured skater will be able to score vs. how the alternate skater would have scored.

Not aware of Belgium's #2, let alone their alternate. They are probably one and the same.

 

[Wyliefan]

But we can't know these things beforehand. Karen scored low here, but overall she's had a tendency to score higher internationally than Amber and Lindsay.

 

[Rukia]

This small sample of our off-season posting has me praying for early program announcements to rant about

 

[LeafOnTheWind]

Including stats on rotation and edge calls from international judging for US team selection is not about Karen. It's about all of US ladies skating going forward. I'm hoping something like that can encourage proper jump technique long before they ever make it to the senior level. A lot of people are gushing about Isabeau Levito being one of our next big stars and all I see is more of the same issues we've had for a long time now.

After years of just pretty skating I'm over it from all of them. I do wonder how much bad technique affected confidence if you are just never sure you will get credit for jumps.

ETA: They don't have to win medals. I will settle for their jumps counting when they do them. Baby steps.

 

[layman]

I am very happy for Alysa Liu. I knew she could do it (medal at World's in her Senior Debut year). She's had such a long, exhausting season with so many changes, challenges and adversities. I like the grace with which she has handled everything. I don't know if she wants to continue but what she has already achieved is absolutely incredible!

 

[Frau Muller]

What is going on with Bradie? I know that she was injured this season but what about future plans.

I was about to ask the same thing! Without Russians or Safonova of Belarus, we’re looking at new possibilities for Bradie & other USA women without quads or 3-axels.

 

[barbk]

But we can't know these things beforehand. Karen scored low here, but overall she's had a tendency to score higher internationally than Amber and Lindsay.

That's why injured skaters need monitoring. Trusting a skater to give up a spot at Worlds/Olympics due to injury hasn't worked out well at all. Whether it is delusion, magical thinking, or simply believing that they can power through it, skaters are unreliable narrators of their own competitive readiness.

 

[kwanfan1818]

And then there's all the handwringing over injured skaters daring to show their faces. How is it that Loena is a heroine for showing up injured and Karen should be remorseful for doing the same?

Hendrickx has been lauded for skating so well while being injured, but the only thing considered heroic about showing up injured was that she is the only skater from Belgium with the senior minimums, and the best chance for two spots for Women in Belgium, two spots being harder to lose. They have the 17-year-old Jade Hovine, who still needs the SP senior minimum, but even more importantly, Nina Pinzarrone, who has well exceeded the senior minimums in junior competition, is slated to compete at Jr. Worlds, and who is 15. Depending on what happens with the age rules for next season, especially with the Russian Women out, they may go with the original proposal and grandfather in 15-year-olds for 2022-23 season, in which case, she can be sent out for her senior minimums.

There were other US Women who could have been sent and who were official alternates to Chen, who wasn't so dominant that spots absolutely depended on her, like on Hendrickx.

 

[Karen-W]

Hendrickx has been lauded for skating so well while being injured, but the only thing considered heroic about showing up injured was that she is the only skater from Belgium with the senior minimums, and the best chance for two spots for Women in Belgium, two spots being harder to lose. They have the 17-year-old Jade Hovine, who still needs the SP senior minimum, but even more importantly, Nina Pinzarrone, who has well exceeded the senior minimums in junior competition, is slated to compete at Jr. Worlds, and who is 15. Depending on what happens with the age rules for next season, especially with the Russian Women out, they may go with the original proposal and grandfather in 15-year-olds for 2022-23 season, in which case, she can be sent out for her senior minimums.

There were other US Women who could have been sent and who were official alternates to Chen, who wasn't so dominant that spots absolutely depended on her, like on Hendrickx.

Nina Pinzarrone turned 15 in the fall. She won't be senior age-eligible meet season.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Nina Pinzarrone turned 15 in the fall. She won't be senior age-eligible meet season.

According to the original ISU proposal, 15-year-olds are eligible for senior competition in 2022-2023. The age raises to 16 in 2023-24, and to 17 in 2024-25. Did I miss where they decided to present another proposal to raise the age to 16 for 2022-23?

 

[Karen-W]

According to the original ISU proposal, 15-year-olds are eligible for senior competition in 2022-2023. The age raises to 16 in 2023-24, and to 17 in 2024-25. Did I miss where they decided to present another proposal to raise the age to 16 for 2022-23?

Even if the proposal passes as is, Nina still won't be senior eligible next season, since she turned 15 after July 1. She won't be age eligible until the next Olympic season if the proposal passes as is.

 

[tony]

Even if the proposal passes as is, Nina still won't be senior eligible next season, since she turned 15 after July 1. She won't be age eligible until the next Olympic season if the proposal passes as is.

Yes she will. It’s 15 by the previous July 1 before the fall season starts, so she will be old enough in August for senior internationals/Challengers.

 

[VGThuy]

Unless they change the age limits this summer, but I guess that wouldn't affect those who turn 15 by July 1 of this year.

 

[Karen-W]

Yes she will. It’s 15 by the previous July 1 before the fall season starts, so she will be old enough in August for senior internationals/Challengers.

Oh, duh. I was thinking she was 14. My brain is officially fried, lol.

 

[her grace]

That's why injured skaters need monitoring. Trusting a skater to give up a spot at Worlds/Olympics due to injury hasn't worked out well at all. Whether it is delusion, magical thinking, or simply believing that they can power through it, skaters are unreliable narrators of their own competitive readiness.

This, exactly. Where was the monitoring? Or why did USFS make such a big deal about Flatt skating injured if they don't care and will let you skate so long as they're informed?

OTOH, Chen's placement was still pretty high, considering how she skated. It's not like she let the team down.

 

[jlai]

Ultimately Chen was still in the picture because of the relative lack of depth compared to dance and men.

 

[LeafOnTheWind]

Have we heard anything about Bradie lately?

 

[Karen-W]

Have we heard anything about Bradie lately?

Not that I have seen. I was looking at the GP rules and both she and Kihira should be eligible for a host GP spot plus put on the SB Top 75 list using their Worlds 2021 score to be included in the pool of skaters who can be selected for 1 assignment after the seeded & top 24 WS/SB get assignments. If she is healthy and wants to continue, I expect, especially with the absence of the Russians, for her (and Rika) to get 2 assignments out of the gate.

 

[Maximillian]

Actually, Mariah had the highest score of the season after Alysa, and Amber was within a 1.5 of Karen's SB, IIRC.

https://results.isu.org/isujsstat/sb2021-22/sbtswto.htm

Audrey Shin also, btw, managed to beat Karen's SB at 4CCs. We'll see if Lindsay can best it in her last comp of the season at Jr Worlds in a few weeks.

Karen was in Group 3 priority status ahead of Amber & Lindsay in Group 4 by virtue of her Worlds 2021 result. Which is fair. The skaters who earned that priority status across all disciplines got there fair and square, but I don't see any reason why they should have necessarily been prioritized over the skaters/teams who were in Group 4 status going into Nationals. While achieving a Top 10 result is important, I don't buy into the notion that any of the skaters/teams who were in Group 3 were necessarily better bets at managing that feat at the Olympics than the ones who were in Group 4.

FWIW, looking at both the Olympic & Worlds 1st alternates -

Lindsay's SB (which was at one of her JGPs) as well as both her Challenge Cup and Warsaw Cup scores were all higher than Karen's Olympics Women's event score (though Karen's combined scores for the TE would have been higher) and would have landed her somewhere around 12th or 13th vs Karen's 16th.

Amber's SB (SkAm) would have placed her 6th at Worlds, so one place higher than Karen, but about 9 points better.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but I'm not buying the argument that Karen is so much appreciably better than either of the 1st alternates. She's wildly inconsistent, regardless of the high PCS she receives. Think how much higher she'd be scoring if she actually had the technical side dialed in. Argue in favor of PCS all you want but TES matters too.

No, this is a terrific argument, Karen Chen is inconsistent, 'BRING IN AMBER GLENN!!!' Yeah, that's the ticket...

 

[Karen-W]

No, this is a terrific argument, Karen Chen is inconsistent, 'BRING IN AMBER GLENN!!!' Yeah, that's the ticket...

That's not the point, and you would know it if you read my entire post (or any of my posts about the US Men's selection). A skater who is inconsistent and only showing an ability to land in the lower half of the top 10 at major internationals shouldn't be given a higher priority than a skater who is scoring just slightly lower (top 15 at major internationals) yet beats them at Nationals.

Now, I realize, this year at Nationals, Karen placed 2nd and there wasn't really much of an argument that either Amber or Lindsay (the two women who went into Nats in Group 4 status, vs Karen's Group 3 status) should be given the Olympic spot over her. But, after her skates in Beijing, knowing she was injured... I have a hard time believing that Amber would have done any worse.

 

[Tavi]

Let's recap Karen Chen's international competitions this year:

At Autumn Classic SP, Chen earned negative GOE on two jump elements.
At Finlandia SP, Chen earned negative or 0.0 GOE on two jump elements.
In the Canadian GP SP, Chen earned negative GOE on only one jump combo!
In the French GP SP, Chen earned negative GOE on all jumps except the axel.
In the Olympic Team SP, Chen earned negative GOE on all jumps except the axel.
In the Olympic Women's SP, Chen earned negative GOE on all jumps except the axel.
In the Worlds SP, she managed a positive GOE of .08 on the 3Lutz/3Toe along with a q, and biffed the planned 3 loop into a single.

At Autumn Classic FP, Chen earned negative GOE on 6 jump elements. A record, of sorts.
At Finlandia FP, Chen earned negative GOE on 3 jump elements.
In the Canadian GP FP, Chen earned negative GOE on 6 of her jump elements.
In the French GP FP, Chen earned negative GOE on 3 of her jump elements.
In the Olympic Team FP, Chen earned negative GOE on 4 of her jump elements.
In the Olympic Women's FP, Chen earned negative GOE on 4 of her jump elements and singled her planned solo 3 lutz.
In the Worlds FP, she had negative GOE on 3 jump elements, q notes on 2, and an under rotation on the third.

She earns q and/or under rotation calls at every international competition. She has a really solid double axel. Yay?

This isn't a problem with a skater who had a sprained ankle at the Olympics or a problem in one competition, two competitions, or three competitions. This is a skater who has become unreliable on virtually all her triples.

I didn’t check protocols for all of Karen’s competitions, but at several I did look at, including Autumn Classic, I noticed that many skaters were hit with -GOE and q/> calls on multiple jumps in both programs. I’m not saying Karen hasn’t struggled this season, but if you’re going to analyze how she was scored on her jumps, I think it’s only fair to put those scores in context.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I'm trying to think of the last time a U.S. woman won a medal on her World Championships debut. Kimmie Meissner in 2006 comes to mind.