Pre-season poll: Which 3 U.S. Men do you want to see at the 2018 Olympics?

[rfisher]

I had to google to remember who did win the bronze

Yep. He who stands on his feet longest has the best chance of an Olympic medal.

 

[misskarne]

Yep. He who stands on his feet longest has the best chance of an Olympic medal.

Aha! The Bradbury Principle. Well, and we know Steve Bradbury is Australian...

 

[rfisher]

Aha! The Bradbury Principle. Well, and we know Steve Bradbury is Australian...

I call it the Mick Fanning principle. Punch out the shark and you win. Also divorce your wife who is taking all your hard earned winnings and you win more.

 

[Jammers]

I see someone like Andrew Torgashev making a big move at Nationals. He lost a year due to injury and as we saw with Kaetlyn Osmond it takes at least a year to just get back into the groove of competing and he's at that age where the young guys make huge improvements in their skating in just a matter of months and he already has great skating skills. All he needs is to get his 3axel stable and keep attacking those quads and he will move up in a hurry. Post 2018 it will be the young guys dominating like Nathan, Vincent, Andrew T and Alex K. I'm sure Adam, Max, Grant and Ross are probably done after the Olympic year because i don't see them being able to keep up with the new kids.

 

[Bellanca]

Because it's similar to how many posted about Nathan Chen last season. Vincent is upsetting the apple cart for some who truly want whoever it is that they want to make the Olympic team, and "some kids" are getting in the way of that with their more objective TES advantage.

I agree, and I will admit that I am shamelessly pulling for Nathan
and Vincent to be on the team. Should this be the case, the drama will be for spot #3.

However, I certainly understand fan indifference to the idea that Nathan
and Vincent could (possibly) take a spot away from their favorite skater, despite the fact that both men had an extremely impressive and successful season. It is human nature (IMO) to be slightly indifferent, for some, if they were not on board in the first place.

As for the third spot, let's say that a solid, clean skate from Jason lands him on the team over solid, clean skates from Max and Adam, or vice-versa. Yikes! We can probably count on a fair amount of

A fan's passion and loyalty for 'their' skater(s) can run pretty deep, and should not be underestimated.

I try to follow a (self-imposed) rule from a fan's standpoint, and that is, if the skaters that I am hoping to make the team do not, I will be genuinely happy for those who do. Keeping in mind that everyone really wants it, and they train very hard to get it.

 

[StitchMonkey]

So I was looking at past years nationals and noticed something.

• In 2012 Max Aaron was 8th, in 2013 he won gold - arguably being the story of the event.
• In 2013 Jason Brown was 8th, in 2014 Riverdance happened and he won silver- arguably being the story of the event.
• In 2014 Adam Rippon was 8th, in 2015 he had a major breakthrough/comeback and surged to second - arguably being the story of the event.
• In 2015 Nathan Chen was 8th, in 2016 Nathan lands 4 quads and wins bronze - arguably being the story of the event.
• In 2016 Vincent Zhou was 8th, in 2017 he surged to second - ok maybe not the story of the event, but he sure as hell was a story of the event and made his splash - it even was the silver which is the most common.

I think we have a trend, I think we have a lucky spot number 8 going on... will skater 8 from 2017 U.S. Nationals rise to the occasion and continue the trend?

In 2017 Sean Rabbitt was 8th... Can he have a Riverdance moment and make the Olympics? Why not? Stranger things have happened than everyone's favorite ginger making the Olympics with a magical skate... I think I might have to totally be on Team Rabbit for the Olympics!

Team Nathan for TES, Jason for being the veteran, and Sean Rabbit for why the hell not for the 2018 Olympics!

 

[meggonzo]

I voted for Nathan, Vincent and Adam because I like all of them. I don't care that Nathan and Vincent are young. Injuries have robbed both of them of more than a years competitiveness and if they make the top 3 at nationals, I hope they go. I just hope the US goes with the top 3 at Nationals and avoids the if they do not.

As to who will medal at the Olympics? That is always a total crap shoot. Just look at the bronze medal winner at Sochi.

The only guy that can finish outside the top 3 and still get put on the team is Nathan.

 

[olympic]

So I was looking at past years nationals and noticed something.

• In 2012 Max Aaron was 8th, in 2013 he won gold - arguably being the story of the event.
• In 2013 Jason Brown was 8th, in 2014 Riverdance happened and he won silver- arguably being the story of the event.
• In 2014 Adam Rippon was 8th, in 2015 he had a major breakthrough/comeback and surged to second - arguably being the story of the event.
• In 2015 Nathan Chen was 8th, in 2016 Nathan lands 4 quads and wins bronze - arguably being the story of the event.
• In 2016 Vincent Zhou was 8th, in 2017 he surged to second - ok maybe not the story of the event, but he sure as hell was a story of the event and made his splash - it even was the silver which is the most common.

I think we have a trend, I think we have a lucky spot number 8 going on... will skater 8 from 2017 U.S. Nationals rise to the occasion and continue the trend?

In 2017 Sean Rabbitt was 8th... Can he have a Riverdance moment and make the Olympics? Why not? Stranger things have happened than everyone's favorite ginger making the Olympics with a magical skate... I think I might have to totally be on Team Rabbit for the Olympics!

Team Nathan for TES, Jason for being the veteran, and Sean Rabbit for why the hell not for the 2018 Olympics!

Eh. Sean seems like a genuinely nice guy, but he can't land a 3A. I don't think he's a threat

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

It was interesting watching the world championships live and in person last March / April.

I love that Nathan and his team see that quadruple jumps are making a name for their charge against the toughest competition out there, and that the judges are recognising him for that as well. He really is fearless when it comes to quads.

I'll probably get a lot of heat for this, but at the moment, for me there really is no comparison between Jason and Nathan as skaters. Sure, Jason does not have a consistent quad, but his audience connection, musicality, presentation, edging, carriage, crossovers, and posture, are light years ahead of Nathan.

The good news is that Nathan is improving each season, and his short program in 2016/17 is a reflection of great packaging. The free skate last year, when his jumps went south, no so much. There really wasn't a great deal of linking or content between set ups.

Nationals is going to be tough, with about five or six guys competing for three spots in South Korea.

 

[el henry]

whole post

Nathan is one smart cookie; he knows what the judges reward and he gives it to them. His precision, tenacity, and determination are remarkable.

I am frustrated with Nathan because I can't help but think that this precision and dedication is why his presentation suffers so much. And yes, IMO, it suffers. Not because I am a Jason uber, not because I want to see Jason beat Nathan (I may be an uber, I'm not stupid), and not because I am so willfully tied to "my" skater I can't see Nathan's true artistry. I don't see it because I. Don't. See. It. Maybe someone else does, but I don't, and Nathan's sixth grade ballet teacher won't convince me.

That said, if Nathan had even half of Jason's skating and performance package, or Jason had even half of Nathan's jumps, watch out world.

 

[Tahuu]

I can't see Nathan's true artistry. I don't see it because I. Don't. See. It. Maybe someone else does.

Maybe you have never seen Nathan or Jason skate live? Jason may have better showmanship but Nathan has better edge quality. Nathan’s artistry is not all trash as you think. Indeed some do see it or how could you explain his FS at 2016 and 2017 US Nationals were awarded best performance by PSA professionals? Are those skating judges, coaches, and choreographers so much worse than you? Mind you these are what they considered in awarding the best performances: Artistry, Charisma/Appeal, Balance, Originality, Drama/Emotion, Music, Costuming, Humor, Showmanship, Quality, Theme, Technical Ability.

 

[Tahuu]

Here are the jump success rates (jumps without negative GOE / total jumps) of the contenders at ISU competitions per http://skatedb.net/modules/skateDB/index.php. Max, Josh and Vincent have impressive 3A success rate. I wish USFS have coach Tom Z teach 3A and Rafael teach quads to the skaters at Champs Camp.

Max Aaron
4S + 55.1 % (27/49)
4T + 0.0 % (0/2)
3A + 76.7 % (46/60)
3Lz + 66.0 % (31/47)
3F + 9.1 % (1/11)
3Lo + 85.0 % (17/20)
3S + 55.0 % (11/20)
3T + 83.3 % (20/24)
2A + 58.3 % (7/12)

Jason Brown
4T + 0.0 % (0/13)
3A + 57.8 % (37/64)
3Lz + 72.2 % (52/72)
3F + 72.5 % (37/51)
3Lo + 86.4 % (19/22)
3S + 72.7 % (16/22)
3T + 73.3 % (33/45)
2A + 100.0 % (41/41)

Nathan Chen
4Lz + 58.3 % (7/12)
4F + 76.9 % (10/13)
4S + 20.0 % (1/5)
4T + 45.0 % (9/20)
3A + 44.8 % (13/29)
3Lz + 88.6 % (31/35)
3F + 92.6 % (25/27)
3Lo + 93.8 % (15/16)
3S + 100.0 % (9/9)
3T + 78.4 % (29/37)
2A + 100.0 % (12/12)

Joshua Farris
4T + 11.1 % (1/9)
3A + 77.8 % (21/27)
3Lz + 74.1 % (20/27)
3F + 58.8 % (10/17)
3Lo + 57.1 % (4/7)
3S + 77.8 % (7/9)
3T + 80.0 % (12/15)
2A + 100.0 % (2/2)

Adam Rippon
4Lz + 0.0 % (0/15)
4S + 0.0 % (0/2)
4T + 16.7 % (1/6)
3A + 45.7 % (43/94)
3Lz + 75.2 % (76/101)
3F + 80.6 % (54/67)
3Lo + 85.3 % (29/34)
3S + 82.9 % (29/35)
3T + 75.0 % (45/60)
2A + 87.5 % (21/24)

Vincent Zhou
4Lz + 100.0 % (1/1)
4S + 22.2 % (2/9)
3A + 81.8 % (9/11)
3Lz + 88.9 % (16/18)
3F + 91.7 % (11/12)
3Lo + 77.8 % (7/9)
3S + 100.0 % (6/6)
3T + 76.9 % (10/13)
2A + 87.5 % (7/8)

 

[Tavi]

Maybe you have never seen Nathan or Jason skate live? Jason may have better showmanship but Nathan has better edge quality. Nathan’s artistry is not all trash as you think. Indeed some do see it or how could you explain his FS at 2016 and 2017 US Nationals were awarded best performance by PSA professionals? Are those skating judges, coaches, and choreographers so much worse than you? Mind you these are what they considered in awarding the best performances: Artistry, Charisma/Appeal, Balance, Originality, Drama/Emotion, Music, Costuming, Humor, Showmanship, Quality, Theme, Technical Ability.

I read el henry's post over twice. Nowhere does she say that Nathan or his artistry are "trash". She said that in her opinion, his presentation suffers because he focuses on executing jumps. She also says that she doesn't see him as artistic. That is her opinion and she's entitled to it, just as you're entitled to yours.

Regarding Nathan's edge quality, you're again entitled to your opinion, but it's only that - your opinion - and many people I know who were at Worlds this year disagree with you. I haven't seen him live, but I have seen Jason live 3x, and I can say that - in my opinion - he has beautiful edge quality, and his edge quality, power, and speed have improved significantly in the past 3 years. As to the PSA award, it's nice that Nathan won it, but you forgot to mention - or maybe you didn't know - that Jason won it in 2014 and Adam won it in 2015.

Finally, as to the statistics you cite in your other post, I'm going to say here what I said to you on GS when you posted something similar in an apparent attempt to argue that Jason shouldn't have been put on the Worlds Team this year: there's no evidence that a skater's past performance accurately predicts his future performance. And by including very old data for Jason and Adam, and data from competitions when Jason was injured or recovering, you make both of them look like worse jumpers than they currently are.

For example, based on your statistics, there's no way Jason should have landed all three 3As clean with +GOE at Worlds, nor should he have done the same thing at WTT. But he did. If I recall, on GS you were also attempting to argue that he was a mediocre skater with a lifetime senior average of - what - 242 + or - 12 points? Based on your statistics, there's no way he should have achieved the highest quadless short program score ever recorded at Worlds, or achieved a total score of 269+ - but he did.

 

[aftershocks]

Obviously, loving them all, I'd want to see all of them. It's too hard to choose.

On paper, it will probably come down to Nathan, Jason, Adam, Vincent, Joshua, Max (but only three can make the team). Surely Grant and Ross will be strong contenders as well. Timothy seems to need more opportunities to compete and to develop more strength and resilience competitively.

I am done with male skaters that are pretty to watch but uninterested in competitive technical content.

What do you mean 'uninterested'? All these guys know that quads are needed in the current environment, and they are all trying to acquire them, several having sustained serious injuries in the pursuit. Skating is about more than the jumps. If it's only about tech content, then get rid of music, costumes, spins, spirals, footwork, and just have a jumping contest.

 

[genevieve]

I put Grant Hochstein. I think there would have to be some epic meltdowns and season inconsistencies by others for that to happen, but it would be super cool.

 

[aftershocks]

even though he's not a jumper

I like your post overall, except it's inaccurate to say that Jason is not a jumper. More accurately, Jason is an all-around skater who has difficulty getting enough height and fast rotations to complete the extra quad revolution, although he has landed a quad more than once in practice and at least once in competition, despite the judges refusing to credit him. Jason has good technique and he can do all of the jumps. It's the extra revolution, for physical and body structure reasons, that is more challenging for him. He got the 3-axel and he's worked hard at trying to master the quad. He's left no stone unturned in his efforts. Moreover, Jason is a great competitor who is usually very consistent and well-trained. The way he gutted out commendable performances at 2017 U.S. Nationals while injured deserves respect and admiration.

Artistry is subjective, but I know what you mean. As for audience connection, some skaters are naturally more charismatic than others. Julian Yee is right at the top in that area, for me. So is Misha Ge. Boyang Jin went from being a fairly bland performer to having as much audience connection as any skater this past season.

Having charisma does not always translate into artistic talent. The performances by both Jason Brown and Adam Rippon at Skate America were some of the best of the season, especially in their unique ability to weave a story, as well as to skate with consistent technique. Attempting that extra quad revolution is difficult for both of them, and yet they each managed to land a successful quad last season (Jason did not receive the quad credit he should have at SA, and Adam did receive credit at TEB). Obviously in the current environment, they each still need to fully master a quad, and then acquire at least one more to compete for the international podium. Their exceptional performance and artistic abilities too often do not receive adequate credit, because the judging emphasis rests heavily on the side of TES. With exceptional TES, a skater's PCS will increase.

I would have to disagree with you regarding Jin. He was pretty cute and outgoing even before last season which does not mean he connects as well with the audience in the same way as more accomplished interpreters of the music who also have good technical skills. Jin is obviously a better jumper than he is a performer. His ability to interpret the music is still weak, and he like many skaters needs to improve his blade work/ skating skills. Jin still mostly skates over the music, but his fed paid for coaching assistance and choreography that helped Jin effectively utilize broad gimmicky mugging to the audience & judges in a bid to increase his PCS points. The judges bought it to a degree mainly because of Jin's TES abilities. I know a lot of people like Jin's Spiderman program. It's not horrible, but it's not great skating either.

With Nathan showing everyone how to skate consistently with five quads at U.S. Nats and 4CCs, Jin ratcheted up his game to improve his consistency and he landed four clean quads at Worlds, despite having had an up-and-down season overall. Jin still needs a lot of work to become a more complete skater, but he's a walking billboard for what quads can do for you. Nathan took the message sent by Jin winning bronze at 2016 Worlds and Nathan hammered it home and then some in his first senior international season. Albeit Nathan was unable to take full advantage of his opportunties at 2017 Worlds due to boot woes, and yet he battled valiantly and showed grit. Meanwhile, Nathan is no slouch artistically. But if you want quads, quads, and more quads, skaters are forced to focus less on artistic development. Still, Nathan has far fewer weaknesses in that area than Jin.

Also, Curry and Cranston were both known more for their artistic chops. They each had to work harder to perfect their technical skills. This was especially true for Curry who was very inconsistent technically prior to upping his game while training with Carlo Fassi, with a focus on the 1976 Olympics. Of course, Cranston was a rebel and an outsider with a unique vision that many hardliners had a difficult time understanding. Cranston paid a heavy price during his early competitive career for being considered an oddball. So many things were different back then. Cranston and Curry chiefly pushed the sport forward with their unique artistic visions. And they had to improve their figures and their technical skills in order for their artistry to make a significant impact.

Re earlier reference to who won men's bronze in Sochi: The bronze medal at Sochi Olympics went to Denis Ten. I had to do some thinking, but I remembered without having to look it up. Since Denis won the silver medal at 2013 Worlds (and arguably should have won gold), his winning bronze at 2014 Olympics is not that surprising. Yes, Denis is not generally that consistent competitively, but he was very strong throughout 2014-2015 season, and then he began to falter. Once D10's reputation recently suffered with some fans and his results tanked, in certain quarters he's been dismissed as a punchline, unfortunately.

 

[rfisher]

I put Grant Hochstein. I think there would have to be some epic meltdowns and season inconsistencies by others for that to happen, but it would be super cool.

Aw, if Mr. Caroline made it to the Olympics, I'd probably shed a few happy tears. If they both went, well the world is probably ending anyway, I'd run naked through the streets cheering for them.

 

[MAXSwagg]

Nathan Chen superior edge quality and skating than Jason Brown? Very, very goofy-minded statement...

 

[aftershocks]

Team Nathan for TES, Jason for being the veteran, and Sean Rabbit for why the hell not for the 2018 Olympics!

Go Gingers in 2018!

Re Nathan & Jason, they are both decent in edge quality, with Jason having the 'edge' over Nathan. No one is better than Patrick Chan though. Nathan can surely improve his performance abilities, but he's no slouch in that department. He understands and has a good feel for the music, plus he's had ballet training.

Nathan's Michael Jackson program from 2015-2016 shows that he has good performance skills. It's just clear that Nathan's focus is more on the jumps, and he's a very good technician, having learned from Raf. Nathan's technique going into and out of jumps is better than Shoma Uno's even though Nathan doesn't have the flowy smooth quality that Uno mesmerizes the judges with. Slo-mo video makes it clear that Uno flutzes and he also pre-rotates some of his quads.

Jason is an excellent interpreter of the music, better than Chan, Uno, and Hanyu in my opinion! Jason also has good transitions and wonderful choreography. Of course, there is subjectivity. However, I believe that movement quality, interpretive abilities, and artistic qualities are measurable by people who are experts in judging performance abilities, movement qualities, musical interpretation and choreography. ISU judges for the most part don't seem to have great knowledge and training in how to judge PCS.

Where it can become more subjective IMO is when you have top-notch jumpers who are adequate performers vs skilled all-around skaters who are excellent artists and consistent jumpers, but who may not have mastered quads. So without the quads, the better artists are not always scored as fairly in some PCS areas where they might deserve higher scores than jumpers/decent performers who have multiple quads. It's also more subjective when you have skaters like Brian Boitano vs Brian Orser, or John Curry vs Toller Cranston. But when those guys skated, the compulsory figures and the politics factored in heavily, which generally made the difference. Or it came down to who skated more cleanly in the case of Battle of the Brians.

 

[Tahuu]

Max (4S, 4T), Josh (4T, 4S, 4Lo?) and Vincent (4S, 4Lz, 4F, 4T?) all up their antes for the Olympic season. Where is Jason? Just a couple weeks ago at the Aerial Challenge jump competition he wiped the ice with his heavy butt nearly 10 times on the 3A between the warmups and competition rounds. With no quad and regressed 3A, he will be left in the dust this year.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

^^^ Oh Dear!

 

[olympic]

Max (4S, 4T), Josh (4T, 4S, 4Lo?) and Vincent (4S, 4Lz, 4F, 4T?) all up their antes for the Olympic season. Where is Jason? Just a couple weeks ago at the Aerial Challenge jump competition he wiped the ice with his heavy butt nearly 10 times on the 3A between the warmups and competition rounds. With no quad and regressed 3A, he will be left in the dust this year.

Do you have information re Farris practicing a 4Lo, let alone including it in a program?

I don't think a small competition in the earlier part of Summer is an indication where the men will be in the Fall, let alone next February.

 

[Sylvia]

I don't think a small competition in the earlier part of Summer is an indication where the men will be in the Fall, let alone next February.

Yup.

I saw Jason land a 3A-half-loop-3F combo in the Team Challenge warmup so it's not like he missed every 3A he tried that day -- from Jackie Wong's Twitter: https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/878705866681327616
I assume Jason has been focusing more on learning the choreography of his new programs lately, anyway.

 

[Tahuu]

We'll have to wait. It keeps the anticipation up.

 

[Tavi]

Max (4S, 4T), Josh (4T, 4S, 4Lo?) and Vincent (4S, 4Lz, 4F, 4T?) all up their antes for the Olympic season. Where is Jason? Just a couple weeks ago at the Aerial Challenge jump competition he wiped the ice with his heavy butt nearly 10 times on the 3A between the warmups and competition rounds. With no quad and regressed 3A, he will be left in the dust this year.

So I guess because you had to resort to being rude, you have no rational answer to the points I raised above? All I can say in response to yours is, it's nice those other guys are planning to up their tech, but since we haven't seen anything from them in competition yet, it doesn't seem very meaningful.

As to your prior posts, FYI, during the 2016-17 season, Jason's success rate with the 3A for all competitions, including the three where he was injured or recovering (NHK, Nats, 4CC), was 15/24 - 62.5% - not great, but higher than you give him credit for above by dragging in years-old data. Excluding those three comps, though, which is the more relevant number, it was 14/15, or 93%.

Finally, I thought perhaps you'd be interested in this:

https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/878705866681327616

Note Jackie's comment regarding the practices. It's a bit different than your opinion, wouldn't you say?

 

[jlai]

Edges - Chen is known for executing quick turns well, but I've seen that from Jason too.
Chen could use more power.

 

[bardtoob]

Nathan has very good edges, but he has not yet physically filled out so he is a bit slower, less powerful, and less deep than one might like to see. Give it a little time, even just until next season, because the basics are there. It was the same for Yuzuru in 2013.

 

[MAXSwagg]

But even Hanyu had better skating skills in 2013 comparatively. Even when he won 2010 Junior Worlds...

 

[misskarne]

Max (4S, 4T), Josh (4T, 4S, 4Lo?)

This is the second time you've posted this without a skerrick of evidence that Josh is even working on the 4Lo, let alone that he'll attempt it in competition. Just in case you have your sweetheart Colorado skaters mixed up, Max is the one who has tried a 4Lo in shows and practice. Josh has just got a 4S.

If you're going to keep repeating it at least pony up your reasons for doing so.

 

[ilovepaydays]

Do you have information re Farris practicing a 4Lo, let alone including it in a program?

This is the second time you've posted this without a skerrick of evidence that Josh is even working on the 4Lo, let alone that he'll attempt it in competition. Just in case you have your sweetheart Colorado skaters mixed up, Max is the one who has tried a 4Lo in shows and practice. Josh has just got a 4S.

I tried Googling it, but I couldn't find it - wasn't there an interview where Joshua said he hated the loop jump? I always thought if he was going to increase his difficulty for his comeback, he would stick with working with 4Ts and 4Ss.

Yes, the 4S in the practice video that Damon Allen posted looked gorgeous, but Joshua hasn't landed it in competition yet. And how many times has Joshua landed a 4T that was great?

Don't get me wrong: I love Joshua's skating and his comeback was the best skating news for me in a long, long time. But let's wait until he starts competing before we get too excited about his improved jump content.

Where is Jason? Just a couple weeks ago at the Aerial Challenge jump competition he wiped the ice with his heavy butt nearly 10 times on the 3A between the warmups and competition rounds. With no quad and regressed 3A, he will be left in the dust this year.

Um, don't these skaters fall - a lot - on a daily basis? Besides, this Olympic season will be a long, long, season and I'm not that concerned at what happened at the Aerial Challenge in mid June. Jason was probably still working on his fitness - his off season had basically just started (the vacation/road trips since the World Team Trophy).