Jonesing for GP 2018-19

mysticchic said:
for Skate America, I am guessing Hubbell and Donohue (seeded), Bradie, Nathan (seeded), and Alexa and Chris.
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Bradie would also be seeded (finished 6th at Worlds).

Given that Osmond will almost certainly be at Skate Canada the next week, that’s good news for fans of Japanese ladies who are going to Skate America, since it means Higuchi or Miyahara is likely at Skate America with Tennell.
 
Question, will Osmond and Daleman be at Skate Canada? I would think SC would want to split them up, but Daleman is the reigning national champ.
 
mag said:
Question, will Osmond and Daleman be at Skate Canada? I would think SC would want to split them up, but Daleman is the reigning national champ.
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Do they really need to split them? Gabby has never medalled on the GP before.
 
RoseRed said:
Do they really need to split them? Gabby has never medalled on the GP before.
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Splitting them gives Skate Canada the option to send a guaranteed two extra skaters on the Grand Prix (host spots) versus one if both skaters went to the event. It’s pretty likely that no other Canadian ladies earn an event outright, at least initially.
 
Tony Wheeler said:
Splitting them gives Skate Canada the option to send a guaranteed two extra skaters on the Grand Prix (host spots) versus one if both skaters went to the event. It’s pretty likely that no other Canadian ladies earn an event outright, at least initially.
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That's the biggest reason to split them imo.
 
mysticchic said:
for ice dance (from each group) for SA
H&D
G&P (or if C&L if they don't retire)
H&B
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I'll be a little surprised--not a lot, but a little--if Hawayek & Baker go to Skate America. They finally have two guaranteed berths, and they've been invited to SA twice in the last three years. This year, they don't need the home invite and three other competitive teams might. Time to run with the big boys, I think, and fight the battle away from home. We'll see, though.
 
i think USFS will take H&B to protect them and try to get them a medal. Might be bronze, but still a medal. That was why I picked G&P for the 4-6 seeded spot. it give H&B a chance to beat them.
 
alchemy void said:
All this analysis over Ashley’s Grand Prix status and she probably doesn’t even want to do it. :lol:

However, if she somehow was really serious about competing next season, she could try for a Grand Prix event. If that doesn’t happen, and the USFS sees she’s training well, I guarantee she would have her pick of Challenger events to make a comeback and prove she’s serious.
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USFS has generally given Challenger assignments based on summer competitions or monitoring sessions. Ashley hasn't done a summer comp in years, and she hasn't done any Challenger events. The only fall event she has done is the invitational Japan Open, with a big paycheck.
 
mysticchic said:
i think USFS will take H&B to protect them and try to get them a medal.
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My guess is that USFSA intends to send out every one of their top-24 ranked dance teams twice on the GP this season. Let all those teams fight it out tooth and nail.

But we'll see.
 
Dobre said:
My guess is that USFSA intends to send out every one of their top-24 ranked dance teams twice on the GP this season. Let all those teams fight it out tooth and nail.

But we'll see.
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There are only 4 teams that would be on there. H&D (Shibs) c&b, H&B, P&P. the 1st 3 are getting 2. P&P should also get 2.
summer qualifying events really only work for singles and pairs. LP has been used in the past very rarely for ice dance.
Next would be Mc&C.
 
mysticchic said:
There are only 4 teams that would be on there.
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USA has 6 competing teams ranked in the top 24 Worlds Standings. (Actually 8, but we are not counting the Shibs or Pogrebinsky & Benoit). If USFSA plays their cards right, it is possible all six could win two spots. Might depend on retirements, but as you implied, there are 4 teams that should be ranked high enough to win 2 non-host spots outright. And two that could get in if 1. enough teams retire, 2. another country chooses to invite one of them, or 3. those teams are invited to Skate America.

Such a scenario, of course, is not guaranteed at all. Last season, the Parsons were ranked high enough that they would have been a logical selection for two non-host spots; but they didn't receive the second invite. There are fewer U.S. teams this season, however. And if Hawayek & Baker travel, then there is room for a second team at Skate America. H&B needed that spot in the past. They were in a very similar situation to the Parsons and McNamara & Carpenter right now. But H&B don't need it this season.

And USA may have teams that do. That's all I'm saying. Maybe it's not a priority. But we are talking about teams that have defeated and/or split placements with the likes of Lauriault & Le Gac, Wang & Liu, Hurtado & Khaliavin, Nazarova & Nikitin, Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson, Popova & Mozgov, Smart & Diaz, Skoptcova & Aleshin, Lorenz & Polizoakis, Shpilevaya & Smirnov, & Min & Gamelin. It would be a good thing to get those teams out on the Grand Prix, especially considering that there will be limited room in the post season and--particularly if Chock & Bates are really a question mark, healthwise--as there is a possibility that some of those teams could be fighting for a Worlds berth this season.

(For what it's worth, Hawayek & Baker placed higher at SC than SA last season. There's no reason they can't medal off U.S. soil).

Note: Not to ignore them, it is also plausible that a team like Aldridge & Eaton could sneak past one of those top 24 WS teams at Lake Placid and have an argument for SA.

Note 2: Between them, the Parsons, McNamara & Carpenter, and Carreira & Ponomarenko have won 6 Junior World medals and earned 56 JGP dance spots for team USA.
 
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While it would be easier for them to be assigned to FRA and RUS, and good in the long-term for them to compete in JPN to develop a fan base, I'm hoping Z/G get assigned to either USA or CAN.
 
Dobre said:
Last season, the Parsons were ranked high enough that they would have been a logical selection for two non-host spots; but they didn't receive the second invite.
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The Parsons got the SA host pick and CoR, so they did have two GP events last year. It was McNamara/Carpenter who got just one event (CoC). But while the Parsons were 7th at CoR and 9th and last at SA, M/C were 5th at CoC.
 
euterpe said:
The Parsons got the SA host pick and CoR, so they did have two GP events last year. It was McNamara/Carpenter who got just one event (CoC). But while the Parsons were 7th at CoR and 9th and last at SA, M/C were 5th at CoC.
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The Parsons were high enough to be selected for two non-host spots last year. They were the highest ranked team on the SB list that was skipped over for two non-host spots. Teams lower down the SB list--like Loboda & Drozd and Lauriault & Le Gac--got the double non-host invites during the initial draw. Therefore, the Parsons needed the spot at SA and McNamara & Carpenter didn't get it. (M&C won the Lake Placid head-to-head during the summer, but the Parsons were likely selected based on winning the previous Junior Worlds). A similar scenario could happen again this season, but the odds may be a little better with one fewer top-24 U.S. team in the hunt.
 
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Not only had the Parsons won JW 2017, but they had also won the 2017 US Junior Championship over M/C, who placed 3rd behind Carreira/Ponomarenko.

At the 2018 US Senior Championship, the Parsons were 5th ahead of M/C, but by less than a point: the Parsons won the SD 72.69 to 69.16, but M/C won the FD 106.03 to 103.38.

Post Nationals, the two teams competed at 4CC where M/C were 4th with 160.12 (62.83, 97.29) and the Parsons 5th with 155.30 (60.18, 92.20).
 
Yes.

Which pretty much demonstrates why I think it would be good for USFSA to get both the Parsons and McNamara & Carpenter out on the Grand Prix twice. They've been splitting placements for a good 4 or 5 years now so both teams should be out there, getting the same level of experience as their international peers. And as Carreira & Ponomarenko are going to move up, then I'd try to get them out there as well. They are further down the SB list, but junior base values for scores weren't comparable to senior ones in the FD last season. So, by all means, try to get them all out there and let them fight it out tooth and nail. Just like these young teams have been doing for years now.

I think USFSA did a good job getting all the young dance teams multiple international assignments last season. McNamara & Carpenter had just as many competitions as the Parsons. There just wasn't room on the GP. But the placements on the GP are worth points on the WS list, the fields are more stacked, and the expectations are generally higher. So if possible, it would be nice to see these competitive young teams on the GP twice. And their head-to-head results both with each other and with international teams say they are competitive.

It's not easy to get spots for a lot of competitive teams in other countries (all the host countries have teams that could lose points to M&C or the Parsons, just as they had teams that could lose points to Hawayek & Baker) so SA is a possible means of mediating that.
 
The problem with the GPs for the young teams is, as you say, that they are competitive. What happens is that if they do get invitations, they are also likely to get low placements. That happened to the Parsons at CoR, where they placed 7th, below all the Russian teams. M/C were lucky to get CoC, because the Chinese teams are not as competitive as the dance teams of the other hosts, and they placed 5th, above all the Chinese teams.

Hawayek / Baker placed 4th at SC and 5th at SA. They were probably hoping to crack the podium in their 3rd GP season, but it didn't happen.

The GP isn't the only place for young teams to earn points toward WS. Challenger and B events are also valuable.

Hawayek / Baker have medalled in Challenger events for the past 3 seasons. Last season, they earned 513 WS points, only slightly less than the 554 points earned for GP events. In the 2016-2017 season, they earned 540 points, more than the 528 points earned for GP events.

McNamara/Carpenter earned 520 WS points in Challenger/B events last season, 262 WS points in the GP; the Parsons earned 495 Challenger/B WS points, 213 GP WS points.
 
Interesting. My spidy sense tells me we won’t see her compete at all next season.

I’ve never gotten the feeling that Kaetlyn is a very competitive person, and winning was not what drove her. That being said, with what she has accomplished, it’s got to be tough to have the motivation to put in the work to stay successful.

Especially with all the injuries I don’t begrudge her taking a step away from everything, but I’ll miss her!
 
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