Jonesing for GP 2018-19

kwanfan1818

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June is almost here, so, in preparation and impatient anticipation, if the GP selection rules remain the same for 2018-19 as in last season then:

1. Guaranteed two: From 2018 Worlds, Singles 1-12, Pairs and Dance 1-10, with skaters/teams moving up for vacancies (retirements and not skating GP)
2. Guaranteed one: SB Top 24 and WS Top 24 not already guaranteed two
3. "Priority consideration" for two: Comeback skaters/teams 1-6 at Worlds in the last ten years (2009-2018 Worlds).
4. "May be considered" for another non-host choice: Comeback skaters/teams and split couples 7-12 at 2016 or 2017 or 2018 Worlds
5. "Included in the process" age-eligible Jr. Worlds medalists and JGPF winners.

Reminder: No one moves up the SB list because of retirements, skaters who aren't age-eligible for seniors, etc. People can move up the WS list, but the skater/team has to be removed from the list by request of the Fed, and that has been rare in recent memory.

The GP Announcement omits the rules for split couples who placed 1-6 with a different partner, so it isn't clear whether it's within the last ten or two or some other number of prior championships, and it's also not clear whether this applies to skaters who've had more than one partner since the split. For example, does Mervin Tran, who placed 3rd at 2012 Worlds with Takahashi -- three partners ago, within the last ten Worlds -- qualify as a split couple with a new partner?

Except for a few educated guesses -- like if Savchenko is coaching in Obertsdorf and Chicago, and Massot is coaching in France, when skaters announce that their next year is full and they are taking all of the opportunities, etc. etc. (Rippon, the Shibs), Fernandez saying he might come back for Euros -- I've tried to stick to official announcements and/or Jackie Wong's site, so, yes, there may be retired skaters among the ones listed. And for comeback skaters, Czisny and Flatt and Rochette, etc. would qualify technically, but I'm not there.

For those guaranteed two, if someone else does retire or decide to skip GP, other skaters teams replace them, and there will be bump-ups into the higher selection groups.

So here is the outline at this time:

Ladies:

Guaranteed two from Worlds:
  • Selection Group 1:
    • 1-Kaetlyn OSMOND (CAN)
    • 2-Wakaba HIGUCHI (JPN)
    • 3-Satoko MIYAHARA (JPN)
  • Selection Group 2:
    • 4-Carolina KOSTNER (ITA)
    • 5-Alina ZAGITOVA (RUS)
    • 6-Bradie TENNELL (USA)
  • Selection Group 3:
    • 7-Gabrielle DALEMAN (CAN)
    • 8-Maria SOTSKOVA (RUS)
    • 9-Loena HENDRICKX (BEL)
  • Selection Group 4:
    • 10-Mirai NAGASU (USA)
    • 11-Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA (KAZ)
    • 12-Mariah BELL (USA)
Next in line: Schott (13), Lecavalier (14)

Guaranteed one from Top 24 SB:
  • 2-Evgenia MEDVEDEVA (RUS)
  • 9-Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)
  • 10-Mai MIHARA (JPN)
  • 11-Polina TSURSKAYA (RUS)
  • 13-Elena RADIONOVA (RUS)
  • 16-Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (RUS)
  • 18-Dabin CHOI (KOR)
  • 19-Marin HONDA (JPN)
  • 21-Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA (RUS)
  • 22-Daria PANENKOVA (RUS) (newly age-eligible)
  • 23-Yura MATSUDA (JPN)
  • 24-Mako YAMASHITA (JPN) (newly age-eligible)
Not age-eligible: Trusova, Kostornaia, Tarankanova

ETA:
Next in line (not Top 24 WS): Shiwaira (26), Kihara (27), Samodurova (29) -- both have skated only junior internationally to date -- Leonova (30), Sakhanovich (32), Lim (34)


Guaranteed one from Top 24 WS:
  • 12-Karen CHEN (USA)
  • 17-Rika HONGO (JPN)
  • 20-Nicole SCHOTT (GER)
  • 24-Nicole RAJICOVA (SVK)
Qualified for Comeback:
  • Gracie Gold (Top 6 last 10 years)
Junior Worlds Medallists and JGPF Champion who are age-eligible and otherwise not guaranteed as spot:

As if.
 
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Tinami Amori

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question, to understand the system: why is Gracie Gold qualifies for comeback, and for example Ashley Wagner does not?
 

Sylvia

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question, to understand the system: why is Gracie Gold qualifies for comeback, and for example Ashley Wagner does not?
Because Gracie did not compete at all last season (though we have no indication as of now if she is even thinking about competing in 2018-19).

Thanks for starting your annual Grand Prix "pre-announcement" thread, @kwanfan1818! (P.S. You mean "Guaranteed one from Top 24 WS:" [World Standings] for the shorter list of names.)

I'm told the GP selection meeting will take place near the end of June this year.
 
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meggonzo

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What is the difference from the two groups that have one guaranteed from Top 24 SB? :confused:
 

kwanfan1818

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Men:

Guaranteed two from Worlds:
  • Selection Group 1:
    • 1-Nathan CHEN (USA)
    • 2-Shoma UNO (JPN)
    • 3-Mikhail KOLYADA (RUS)
  • Selection Group 2:
    • 4-Alexei BYCHENKO (ISR)
    • 5-Kazuki TOMONO (JPN)
    • 6-Deniss VASILJEVS (LAT)
  • Selection Group 3:
    • 7-Dmitri ALIEV (RUS)
    • 8-Keegan MESSING (CAN)
      • 9-Misha GE (UZB) (retired according to Jackie Wong)
    • 10-Michal BREZINA (CZE)
  • Selection Group 4:
      • 11-Max AARON (USA) (retired)
      • 12-Alexander MAJOROV (SWE) (retired according to Jackie Wong)
    • 13-Keiji TANAKA (JPN)
    • 14-Vincent ZHOU (USA)
    • 15-Paul FENTZ (GER)
Next in line: Ponsart (16), Rizzo (17), Kerry (18). In case Bychenko actually does retire and/or Brezina meant he'd be in Saitama as a coach or was kidding in his tweet.


Guaranteed one from Top 24 SB:
  • 3-Yuzuru HANYU (JPN)
  • 5-Boyang JIN (CHN)
  • 9-Sergei VORONOV (RUS)
  • 10-Jason BROWN (USA)
  • 17-Kazuki TOMONO (JPN)
  • 20-Han YAN (CHN)
  • 21-Alexander SAMARIN (RUS)
  • 22-Jorik HENDRICKX (BEL)
  • 23-Daniel SAMOHIN (ISR)
  • 24-Morisi KVITELASHVILI (GEO)
Next in line (not Top 24 WS): Cha (25), Nguyen (28), Reynolds (29), Kerry (33), Miner (34), Paniot (35)

ETA: Fernandez (4) and Rippon (11)would qualify in this category. Fernandez said he may want to skate at Euros again, and Rippon said his upcoming year is busy, but they both have the option if they want it. The lists don't include retired skaters unless it matters to someone else moving up for the guaranteed two from Worlds.

Guaranteed one from Top 24 WS:
  • ETA: 20-Matteo RIZZO (ITA) -- see RoseRed's post below
  • 21-Roman SAVOSIN (RUS)
  • 23-Alexei KRASNOZHON (USA)
Qualified for Comeback:

I'm not seeing any likely suspects.

Junior Worlds Medallists and JGPF Champion who are age-eligible and otherwise not guaranteed a spot:
  • Alexey Erokhov (JWC 1)
  • Matteo Rizzo (JWC 3)
 
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Sylvia

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Why is Zagitova not listed?
Because she's listed as being guaranteed for 2 due to her Worlds placement. If the skater or team placed in the top 12 (singles) or top 10 (pairs/dance) at 2018 Worlds, kwanfan is not listing them again on the SB or WS list.
Except for a few educated guesses -- like if Savchenko is coaching in Obertsdorf and Chicago, and Massot is coaching in France, when skaters announce that their next year is full and they are taking all of the opportunities, etc. etc. (Rippon, the Shibs)
Savchenko/Massot and the Shibutanis already have announced via their federations that they are taking an indefinite break from competition (Shibs for the entire 2018-19 season).
ETA: Rippon has yet to announce his plans and said in an interview published on 5/22/18 that he will consult with Arutunian first before making a decision.
 
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kwanfan1818

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Pairs:

Guaranteed two from Worlds:
  • Selection Group 1:
      • 1-Aljona SAVCHENKO / Bruno MASSOT (GER) Not that it would be surprising thatSavchenko could win even if her partner was living in another country and they practiced through Skype and he was going to Lamaze classes and then staying up all night with a newborn, but, I'm guessing not.
    • 2-Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV (RUS)
    • 3-Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES (FRA)
    • 4-Natalia ZABIIAKO / Alexander ENBERT (RUS)
  • Selection Group 2:
    • 5-Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE (ITA)
    • 6-Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO (CAN)
    • 7-Xiaoyu YU / Hao ZHANG (CHN)
  • Selection Group 3:
    • 8-Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV (RUS)
    • 9-Cheng PENG / Yang JIN (CHN)
    • 10-Valentina MARCHEI / Ondrej HOTAREK (ITA)
      • 11-Anna DUSKOVA / Martin BIDAR (CZE) split
    • 12-Tae Ok RYOM / Ju Sik KIM (PRK)
Next in line: Hocke/Blommaert (13), Ziegler/Kiefer (14).


Guaranteed one from Top 24 SB:
  • 2-Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN (CHN)
  • 5-Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV (RUS)
  • 12-Julianne SEGUIN / Charlie BILODEAU (CAN)
  • 15-Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA (USA)
  • 16-Tae Ok RYOM / Ju Sik KIM (PRK)
  • 18-Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM (USA)
  • 19-Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII (RUS)
  • 20-Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC (USA)
  • 21-Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR (AUS)
  • 23-Annika HOCKE / Ruben BLOMMAERT (GER)
  • 24-Miriam ZIEGLER / Severin KIEFER (AUT)
Next in line (not Top 24 WS): Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (26, she's newly age-eligible), Stellato/Bartholomay (27), Panfilova/Rylov (29, she's newly age-eligible), Efimova/Korovin (32), Ruest/Wolfe (33), Kostiukovich/Ialin (34, she's newly age-eligible), Hase/Seegert


Guaranteed one from Top 24 WS:
  • 19-Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER (USA) -- see clairecloutier's post below
  • 22-Yumeng GAO / Zhong XIE (CHN)
  • 24-Lola ESBRAT / Andrei NOVOSELOV (FRA)
Qualified for Comeback:

I'm not seeing any likely suspects.

Split Couples:
  • Tran and new partner, if they let him go back to Takahashi (WC3 within the last ten WCs, if it's the rule of ten)
  • Duskova and Bidar would qualify with new partners (WC11 in 2018)
  • Ilyushechkina would qualify with a new partner (WC6 in 2017)
If the Chinese Fed starts partner-switching, Peng, Zhang, Yu, and Jin in any new configuration would qualify as split couples, regardless of the number of seasons to which the rule applies.

Junior Worlds Medallists and JGPF Champion who are age-eligible and otherwise not guaranteed a spot:
  • Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (JWC1)
  • Kostiukovich/Ialin (JWC2)
  • Mishina/Galiamov (JWC3)
 
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kwanfan1818

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Dance:

Guaranteed two from Worlds:
  • Selection Group 1:
    • 1-Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON (FRA)
    • 2-Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE (USA)
    • 3-Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE (CAN)
  • Selection Group 2:
    • 4-Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE (ITA)
    • 5-Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES (USA)
    • 6-Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER (CAN)
  • Selection Group 3:
    • 7-Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN (RUS)
    • 8-Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO (RUS)
    • 9-Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI (ITA)
    • 10-Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER (USA)
Next in line: Muramoto/Reed (11), Smart/Diaz (12). If C/L, for example, decide to call it a day or skip GP.


Guaranteed one from Top 24 SB:
  • 13-Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV (RUS)
  • 14-Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND (GBR)
  • 16-Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV (POL)
  • 17-Sara HURTADO / Kirill KHALIAVIN (ESP)
  • 18-Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS (CAN)
  • 19-Laurence FOURNIER BEAUDRY / Nikolaj SORENSEN (CAN) -- ETA: would need an exception to compete before 20 Jan 2019 (one year after the 2018 Euros FD).
  • 20-Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED (JPN) 21-Betina POPOVA / Sergey MOZGOV (RUS)
  • 22-Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS (USA)
  • 24-Olivia SMART / Adrian DIAZ (ESP)
Next in line (not Top 24 WS): Loboda/Drodz (30), Abachkina/Thauron (31) -- ETA: split, per Jackie Wong, see RoseRed's post below -- Min/Gamelin (34)

The Shibs are not planning to skate in the immediate future -- see Sylvia's post above -- or they'd qualify, as would
Bobrova/Soloviev, who've said that they are not competing together this coming season.

Guaranteed one from Top 24 WS:
  • 17-Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER (USA)
  • 18-Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC (FRA)
  • 20-Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU (CHN)
  • 21-Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO (USA) (have skated juniors only internationally to date)
  • 22-Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (RUS) (have skated juniors only internationally to date)

Qualified for Comeback:

I'm not seeing any likely suspects.

Split Couples:
  • If Soloviev teams up with someone else, he'd qualify as WC5 in 2017.
Junior Worlds Medallists and JGPF Champion who are age-eligible and otherwise not guaranteed a spot:
  • Ushakova/Nekrasov (JWC3)
 
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misskarne

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Vincent gets Max's guaranteed two, basically.

Good to see Katia and Harley are guaranteed one, no federation shenanigans to keep them out this year. Brendan should be high enough to get at least one, but I'd love to see him graduate to two. I'm guessing Kailani is still too far away to pick one up in the initial selection, but hopefully she can pick one up later.
 

RoseRed

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@kwanfan1818 Kevin Reynolds has been clear he's done (source) so you can take him out of the next in line list. Also Matteo Rizzo should be under guaranteed one from WS (he's 20th) rather than JW medalist not otherwise guaranteed one.

And also, Abachkina/Thauron don't need to be listed under next in line because they split.

I excited to see the assignments when they come out.
 

missing

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I saw the following on Twitter (retweeted by a fellow FSUer):

Jack Gallagher‏ @sportsjapan 8h8 hours ago

The ISU has informed me that it could be as late as June 29 before the Grand Prix assignments are announced for the coming season. Last season they came out on May 26.
 

barbarafan

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Can they compete at GP for Canada already? I thought they have to sit out a year after their last competition which was Europeans.
That is what I thought. That is why they did not do Worlds so they could do Worlds this season. I think that is supposed to be their first International for Canada if they make the team.
 

Dobre

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Can they compete at GP for Canada already? I thought they have to sit out a year after their last competition which was Europeans.
My understanding is likewise that Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson should be sitting out the GP. And should be eligible to compete at an ISU event by 4CCs if F-B&S make it out of Canadian Nationals. Still, I think, 2-3 dance teams on the guaranteed dance spot list for this season that are in the question mark column for competing the GP this year. Waiting to see who signs up. (And maybe even then, who stays on the list).
 

kwanfan1818

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I thought I read something about F-B/S and an exception, but I'm probably confusing things. They could compete from 20 Jan 2019. From being transferred to CAN on the ISU SB and technical minimum lists, it looks like they can carry over their minimums earned competing for DEN. Four Continents 2019 starts in February, which is longer than a year after their last international together.
 

Mad for Skating

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So can Ashley Wagner get two spots this year, or will she be assigned one and then take the Skate America host pick?
 

kwanfan1818

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Everyone who is Top 75 SB, age- and otherwise eligible, and has the GP minimums (total or TES), unless otherwise exempted, like comeback and split couples and host skaters *can* get two spots, as long as everyone gets their guaranteed spots.

Although this hasn't yet been described in the GP Announcement, many here have posted that the host picks are selected first, not after guaranteed spots. So USFS can: 1. Assign her directly in the initial selection 2. Assign three other skaters initially or 3. Not assign her in the initial selection, but reserve a TBA, and either assign or not assign her later. (The deadline for filling TBA's is based on the date the initial acceptances are due, usually sometime in August, plus a number of days, but the Feds can do so before the deadline.)

If USFS assigned her to Skate America in the initial selection, no other Fed would have to give her a slot, since she's only ETA: had she been guaranteed one. Same with Medvedeva for Rostelecom Cup, or any other skater/team from a host nation guaranteed only one. Every year, there are skaters in this position who get two in the initial selection, including a host spot, so maybe there has to be dealing with other hosts to get two for a given skater/team, but hard to imagine other hosts passing up the chance to assign Hanyu or Jin or Sui/Han, for example.

If Pairs remains at 8 slots/event (total of 48), then it's usually a mathematical possibility that some guaranteed spots won't get them, although it involves the improbable and maybe impossible (Japan, France) scenario that all of the hosts choose only Pairs not guaranteed any. This season, 34 spots are guaranteed: 20 from Worlds, 11 from Top 24 SB, 3 from Top 24 WS. In theory, if every host filled its three spots with age-eligible Pairs not guaranteed any, that would be four slots too many in total.

Also, people have posted here that World medalists get to pick their events, although I'd pretty sure that doesn't include taking a host spot from someone in the same selection group, like, for example, Chen asking for SA and RC/NHK or P/C asking for IdF and SC/SA.
 
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kwanfan1818

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Is Ashley even guaranteed one spot? I don't see her on @kwanfan1818 's Top 24 SB or WS lists.
No: Wagner is SB 38 (from Skate Canada) and WS 33. The only WS points she earned last season were from Skate Canada, her only complete international competition last season. Her 2016-17 points were factored by 70%, and 2015-16 points dropped off.

ETA: I just assumed she'd been guaranteed one -- it seemed inconceivable to me that she'd fallen off every list. Thank you for asking, and I've updated the post above.
 

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