Anthony Hopkins stopped the Chadwick Boseman train here, so we’ll see what that means for Oscar. The Father is getting a last minute surge and we all know the movie is Oscar bait. It does continue BAFTA’s trend of not awarding African-American (male) talent. McDormand winning here means she’s alive for the race as some thought the voting block may have used this opportunity to award someone off-the-wall given that it wasn’t the same old choices.
Going into Oscar, Best Actress looks like:
Andra Day - Golden Globe Drama
Carey Mulligan - [Broadcast] Critic’s Choice and a slew of critics awards
Frances McDormand - AACTA, BAFTA, Satellite, and a slew of critics awards, including The National Society of Film Critics. Whatever she didn’t win she was runner-up.
Viola Davis - SAG, runner-up status or third among a slew of critics.
Vanessa Kirby - Venice Film Festival Volpi Trophy winner (lots of winners there end up with the Oscar, especially this decade). Her film was kind of a hit on Netflix.
BAFTA, AACTA are important because there is overlap with Academy membership (think of all the Brits and Aussies nominated and who have won) but this year BAFTA is funky because a jury did the nominations for certain categories including Best Actress and only McDormand and Kirby were nominated among the Oscar contenders.
SAG is important because the actor’s branch is the largest branch of Academy membership. However, it includes thousands more actors than the Academy does and their tastes are more populist.
We know the Golden Globes set the stage in terms of which films have the most publicity and campaign power, but this year is also a bit different as it’s a longer award season and films like The Father is only now getting to the height of their campaign.