U.S. Men 2021-22 season news & updates

[Karen-W]

Jackie Wong's tweet indicates that actually, it would be Jason's international scores that would give him the nod. As it should.

Except that's exactly what this would be!

I think Ilia is going to be amazing for the US men - in a year or two. He's already excellent now. I have no doubt he's their future leader. But this season he has not shown that he is better than Jason at the Senior level at any event - except just once, here, at the short program at Nationals. And that's not enough, nor should it be.

You're gonna hang yourself on believing Jackie Wong knows what the IC will do. Tara seemed to have a totally different take on what will happen if Ilia beats Jason. I'd say that based on what they did with the Women's alternate spots, Jason's spot isn't as safe as you've been saying all fall, but we'll see. They still have to skate tomorrow.

 

[olympic]

OMG. That was the best competition in US Nats history! I say right now the US and JPN are #1 in depth for men. RUS has a lot of men that can show up on any given day but they are 50-50 at best

 

[carriecmu0503]

But why should nationals get high weight in the decision? It's only one competition that's also very generously judged (inflated GOE, ignoring various 'q' and UR, almost no edge calls, and so on). There's a good reason to take a skater BOW into account and if Jason skates a close to clean FS tomorrow (or at least not bomb it) his BOW as defined by the USFS criteria makes him worthy. Even if two skaters are in the same selection group there are defined ways to pick between them, and that's where BOW comes into play.

Sure, it you want to tie a nice pretty BOW around a maximum ceiling of about 9th place at the Olympics, and that is with help from others.

 

[carriecmu0503]

delete duplicate.

 

[angi]

Sure, it you want to tie a nice pretty BOW around a maximum ceiling of about 9th place at the Olympics, and that is with help from others.

You don't seem get what BOW means.

 

[misskarne]

Tara seemed to have a totally different take on what will happen if Ilia beats Jason.

You're gonna hang yourself on Tara Lipinski's judgement?

Yeah, I'll stick with Jackie, thanks. He was wrong once, but I doubt he's wrong on this.

 

[carriecmu0503]

You don't seem get what BOW means.

I FULL well know what it means! You seem to not know what sarcasm means! And, let's not act like Malinin, who won to JGPS and made the JGPF this year, doesn't have a pretty little BOW of his own.

 

[Trillian]

Sure, it you want to tie a nice pretty BOW around a maximum ceiling of about 9th place at the Olympics, and that is with help from others.

Jason was 7th at Worlds less than a year ago and beat all but a few of the top skaters in the world in 2021, so I’m not sure why you’re set on 9th as his ceiling. That’s been his floor. It’s certainly possible he’d finish 9th, but if he has “help,” as you put it, his track record suggests his ceiling is higher. Ilia has not posted scores internationally to suggest he’s a medal contender. So to argue that he should go to the Olympics because he could medal and Jason couldn’t has no basis in the reality of what these two skaters have done so far this season. I get that you don’t see the point of Jason Brown, but he’s one of the top-ranked skaters in the world, so it’s possible the selection committee will see something you don’t.

 

[VGThuy]

I suggest we all adjourn this argument until tomorrow after the Mens LP and after seeing how everyone skated.

 

[missing]

I've been thinking about the Jason/Ilia BOW.

Jason took silver and bronze at his two Grand Prix events. He made the GPF but would have been seeded fifth or maybe sixth (there's only so much research I can do between events).

Ilia took gold at his two Grand Prix events and would have been seeded second at the JGPF.

I think it's a legitimate argument that competing against their peers, Ilia's BOW in terms of the Grand Prixes they were entered in, is superior to Jason's. And since they could only compete against their peers, I don't see why one set of Grand Prixes should be held as more significant than the other.

If you accept that argument, why shouldn't a head to head competition at Nationals be the deciding factor in determining who goes to the Olympics?

 

[VGThuy]

I've been thinking about the Jason/Ilia BOW.

Jason took silver and bronze at his two Grand Prix events. He made the GPF but would have been seeded fifth or maybe sixth (there's only so much research I can do between events).

Ilia took gold at his two Grand Prix events and would have been seeded second at the JGPF.

I think it's a legitimate argument that competing against their peers, Ilia's BOW in terms of the Grand Prixes they were entered in, is superior to Jason's. And since they could only compete against their peers, I don't see why one set of Grand Prixes should be held as more significant than the other.

If you accept that argument, why shouldn't a head to head competition at Nationals be the deciding factor in determining who goes to the Olympics?

Also look at the scores and Ilia’s scores at his one senior international competition. And probably adjust for no quads in the SP and adding like 3-5 points in the LP for the missing choreo sequence. Ok, now I’m leaving this argument till tomorrow.

 

[becca]

Jason was 7th at Worlds less than a year ago and beat all but a few of the top skaters in the world in 2021, so I’m not sure why you’re set on 9th as his ceiling. That’s been his floor. It’s certainly possible he’d finish 9th, but if he has “help,” as you put it, his track record suggests his ceiling is higher. Ilia has not posted scores internationally to suggest he’s a medal contender. So to argue that he should go to the Olympics because he could medal and Jason couldn’t has no basis in the reality of what these two skaters have done so far this season. I get that you don’t see the point of Jason Brown, but he’s one of the top-ranked skaters in the world, so it’s possible the selection committee will see something you don’t.

Frankly I am not a fan of body of work when it comes to middling results. And to me 7th in the world is middling.

Jason unless a lot of people make a lot of serious errors is never going to be an individual world or Olympic medalist. He has had years and years to develop quads and compete technically.

Illia is very young and yes I would say his body of work is not that impressive but he is also young. He is also someone who has the talent to be a world and Olympic medalist in the future.

It would be a mistake not to give him Olympic experience now.

Body of work has its place but it is problematic if to Holds up skaters who have had years to win world and Olympic medals and didn’t. Over younger skaters.

Think in terms of 2026 and the good chance Illia could be our top man there and the difference between him having experienced the pressure of an Olympic Games versus not.

 

[Tavi]

Wow. I don’t know what will happen, but I hope that nobody bombs tomorrow and that whatever decision is ultimately taken is supported by reference to the selection criteria. People who are advocating for Ilia and who don’t like body of work need to read the selection criteria. No, it doesn’t guarantee Jason’s selection, but it’s a factor the committee, if honest, will take into account.

To throw a little fuel on the irrelevant issue of who’s publicly supporting who for the men’s team:

Ilia: in addition to everybody’s favorite little teenage jumper but not so favorite broadcaster Tara L, TSL thinks USFS will send an all quad mens team to distract from the weakness of our women.

Team USA and NBC Olympics have both tweeted individually about Nathan, Vincent, and Jason, but not Ilia. Plus Jason and Nathan are plastered all over NBC media and Jason is a featured model for Team USA and the Oly uniform.

Make of that what you will. Which is to say, not much. I hope.

 

[olympic]

IF both Jason and Ilia skate their best, I am at peace with any decision by the USFSA.

Why not split the difference, Jason - Olympics and Ilia - Sr. Worlds if they both are 3rd and 4th in some order

 

[becca]

IF both Jason and Ilia skate their best, I am at peace with any decision by the USFSA.

Why not split the difference, Jason - Olympics and Ilia - Sr. Worlds if they both are 3rd and 4th in some order

Well I think that would be unfair to Illia. If he wins third he wasn’t given an opportunity to develop a body of work. And having Olympic experience is important. You support your talented people and get them out early. He could be their hope for OGM in 2026. Japan’s young talent is going. You will be given their youngest guy a huge step up in preparation for 2026. It’s a mistake

But then this is a federation that didn’t even get behind Nathan right away.

 

[concorde]

While I have no knowledge of this even being a possibility I wouldn't be surprised to see talk of Ilia skating for a different country like what was happening with Mirai back in the day.

Why would Ilia do that?

And exactly what country would he represent? Please don't say that it would be the country his parents represented. His parents were not from there but they were assigned that country to represent when the USSR split.

 

[gkelly]

Has this article been posted upthread?

Ilia Malinin Prepares from All Angles Before U.S. Championships

 

[Allskate]

Tara seemed to have a totally different take on what will happen if Ilia beats Jason.

Tara was saying what she wants to happen, not what would happen based on the rules. I don't think that anybody should be surprised that Tara favors putting the youngster on the team.

I'm just thrilled that the men's short program was such a great competition and that we have so many awesome skaters to choose from for the Olympic team. Nathan pushed himself even more technically. That was the best I can remember watching Vincent skate. Jason was phenomenal. And I like Ilia even more than I liked these other three guys when they were his age. It's fantastic.

 

[becca]

Tara was saying what she wants to happen, not what would happen based on the rules. I don't think that anybody should be surprised that Tara favors putting the youngster on the team.

I'm just thrilled that the men's short program was such a great competition and that we have so many awesome skaters to choose from for the Olympic team. Nathan pushed himself even more technically. That was the best I can remember watching Vincent skate. Jason was phenomenal. And I like Ilia even more than I liked these other three guys when they were his age. It's fantastic.

But it’s a problem if the rules are set up so that a young extremely talented skater cannot get experience in favor of skater with moderate results.

This doesn’t mean I won’t feel for Jason but he is never going to be a world or Olympic medalist unless a lot of people make a lot of mistakes.

Illia is someone who had the technical goods to be competive with the top men. He needs experience. Japan will be sending their young talent.

The Olympic pressure is pressure is pressure like no other. This gives them an opportunity to send him there with no pressure or expectations. It could be invaluable in 2026.

Jason had had years to develop technical goods to be competitive in the men’s field than didn’t.

I am for body of work in some circumstances. But in this type of scenario it’s a real mistake.

 

[soogar]

I hate to say this but if Ilia skates well and beats Jason, he’s going to the Olympics. They sent Vincent in 2018 and it paid off with Vincent’s bronze worlds medal. Jason is fortunate that he has an Olympic medal and an Olympics experience. I love Jason’s skating but if Ilia stands up, he will easily outscore him because of all those quads.

 

[Allskate]

But it’s a problem if the rules are set up so that a young extremely talented skater cannot get experience in favor of skater with moderate results.

Putting aside the fact that Ilia has been competing, you are arguing what the rules should be. That is not relevant to what the rules already are and is not relevant to my point that Tara was not predicting what would happen if Ilia finished third, which is what several people here seemed to be claiming. She was stating her wish, not analyzing how the rules apply. What you wish the rules and result would be is a totally different issue. Your desire for Ilia to gain Olympic experience, whether valid or not, does not change the rules or what Tara actually said.

 

[aml78]

Wow. I don’t know what will happen, but I hope that nobody bombs tomorrow and that whatever decision is ultimately taken is supported by reference to the selection criteria. People who are advocating for Ilia and who don’t like body of work need to read the selection criteria. No, it doesn’t guarantee Jason’s selection, but it’s a factor the committee, if honest, will take into account.

To throw a little fuel on the irrelevant issue of who’s publicly supporting who for the men’s team:

Ilia: in addition to everybody’s favorite little teenage jumper but not so favorite broadcaster Tara L, TSL thinks USFS will send an all quad mens team to distract from the weakness of our women.

Team USA and NBC Olympics have both tweeted individually about Nathan, Vincent, and Jason, but not Ilia. Plus Jason and Nathan are plastered all over NBC media and Jason is a featured model for Team USA and the Oly uniform.

Make of that what you will. Which is to say, not much. I hope.

So was Ashley in 2018. I love Jason but I think Ilia is about to pull a Polina.

 

[misskarne]

I hate to say this but if Ilia skates well and beats Jason, he’s going to the Olympics. They sent Vincent in 2018 and it paid off with Vincent’s bronze worlds medal. Jason is fortunate that he has an Olympic medal and an Olympics experience. I love Jason’s skating but if Ilia stands up, he will easily outscore him because of all those quads.

They sent Vincent in 2018 because not only did he finish ahead of all of the Senior skaters who beat him during the regular season, all three of those Senior skaters who beat him during the regular season completely melted down at Nationals. It was a totally unforeseen and completely different circumstance.

If Jason skates well tomorrow he should not be denied the spot he's earned according to the criteria. If he has a 2018-style meltdown we can have a different discussion but that's highly unlikely.

 

[Allskate]

So was Ashley in 2018. I love Jason but I think Ilia is about to pull a Polina.

Ashley did not have a good year leading up to the 2018 Nationals, and I don't see her as comparable to Jason. Having said that, depending on what happens in the long program, I can still see Ilia making the Olympic team over Jason and based on the actual rules. No matter what happens, an excellent skater will go to the Olympics and another excellent skater won't. I'm hoping for a whole bunch of great performances.

 

[Karen-W]

They sent Vincent in 2018 because not only did he finish ahead of all of the Senior skaters who beat him during the regular season, all three of those Senior skaters who beat him during the regular season completely melted down at Nationals. It was a totally unforeseen and completely different circumstance.

If Jason skates well tomorrow he should not be denied the spot he's earned according to the criteria. If he has a 2018-style meltdown we can have a different discussion but that's highly unlikely.

The problem is that skating well won't be enough to cut it if Ilia has another JGP Austria or NQS-Leesburg type of FS where he goes out there and nails nearly everything. The BV alone is going to annihilate Jason's GOE/PCS lead and then some. We'll see what happens tomorrow but looking at the skate order, with Ilia following Ma and Zhou, the judges could be on a quad-lovefest high and hitting +4 or +5 for all the quadsters.

 

[thvu]

Yeah, I'll stick with Jackie, thanks. He was wrong once, but I doubt he's wrong on this.

He was wrong on something objective, that he could have read and seen the truth. Instead he hid behind an anonymous person. So he was wrong on something completely objective, and now you put your faith in his subjective opinion? Someone too proud to be bothered to read the actual rules?

 

[tony]

I kinda feel like we are circling back to the conversations a month or two ago where we were considering this scenario. It's highly unlikely, although I would love it, that both Brown and Malinin skate lights out in the LP. We see how pre-Olympic Nationals tend to play out, even though I think we'd all love to see it happen here after such standout short programs.

One thing for sure, though, is that Malinin can really run away with the TES tomorrow afternoon even if Jason is on again. I think Jason got away with a questionable rotation call today and if Malinin is on fire again, the distance between the two is going to be substantial when all is said and done IMO.

And I find it very hard to believe USFS would not send a 4 or 5 or however many he's going for clean quad performance over a non-quad performance IF that's the type of skating we get tomorrow. I just don't see it happening. JMO.

Who knows what happens with Chen and Zhou though. Nathan looked a little tight today and escaped an underrotation call, as well. Anything can happen.

 

[soogar]

They sent Vincent in 2018 because not only did he finish ahead of all of the Senior skaters who beat him during the regular season, all three of those Senior skaters who beat him during the regular season completely melted down at Nationals. It was a totally unforeseen and completely different circumstance.

If Jason skates well tomorrow he should not be denied the spot he's earned according to the criteria. If he has a 2018-style meltdown we can have a different discussion but that's highly unlikely.

I’m co-signing on Karen-w’s post that Ilia’s base value with his quads will obliterate Jason’s BOW. I don’t think anyone can make the argument that a guy with only triples should go over a guy with multiple quad jumps.

 

[becca]

I’m co-signing on Karen-w’s post that Ilia’s base value with his quads will obliterate Jason’s BOW. I don’t think anyone can make the argument that a guy with only triples should go over a guy with multiple quad jumps.

And didn’t Ilia score well on the Junior Grand Prix too. The only reason Jason’s body of work is stronger than Ilias is because he is older.

 

[VGThuy]

And didn’t Ilia score well on the Junior Grand Prix too. The only reason Jason’s body of work is stronger than Ilias is because he is older.

The body of work only accounts for this season’s competitions plus 2021 Worlds. Also, check out the scores for both Jason and Ilia.