U.S. Men 2021-22 season news & updates
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Coco
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Gave him the Olympic berth in 2014? Um....ok..
Vagabond
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The Selection Criteria are better than the old Body of Work, but they don't properly account for certain situations such as a young skater on the upswing.
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Karen-W
How long do we have to wait for GP assignments?
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Just a refresher, one last time before tomorrow night...
If the results from the SP hold then Malinin will move into Group 3 alongside Jason. At that point... Who knows? The IC just went with Linsday as Alt 1 over Amber in the women despite Amber's SkAm score being nearly 17 points higher than Lindsay's Warsaw Cup score.
Men
Group 1 - Nathan Chen (320.88 Worlds 2021; 269.37 SkAm; 307.18 SCI; GPF)
Group 2 - Vincent Zhou (70.51 Worlds 2021; 288.26 Cranberry; 284.23 CS Nebelhorn; 295.56 SkAm; 260.69 NHK; GPF)
Group 3 - Jason Brown (262.17 Worlds 2021; 262.52 CS Finlandia; 259.55 SCI; 264.20 IdF; GPF)
Group 4 -
Others with International Assignments
Tomoki Hiwatashi (205.17 Cranberry; 213.11 CS Lombardia; 221.77 SCI; 217.08 NHK) withdrawn from Nationals 1/6
Max Naumov (223.15 Cranberry; 207.39 US Classic) withdrawn from Nationals 12/9
Yaroslav Paniot (210.84 Cranberry)
Camden Pulkinen (179.50 Cranberry; 208.99 US Classic; 204.24 CS Finlandia; 193.18 NHK; 237.97 Rostelecom)
Eric Sjoberg (221.12 US Classic; 189.38 CS Warsaw; 212.77 CS Golden Spin) withdrawn from Nationals 1/7
Dinh Tran (176.72 US Classic)
If the results from the SP hold then Malinin will move into Group 3 alongside Jason. At that point... Who knows? The IC just went with Linsday as Alt 1 over Amber in the women despite Amber's SkAm score being nearly 17 points higher than Lindsay's Warsaw Cup score.
| Group 1 Highest Priority | Group 2 | Group 3 | Group 4 Lowest Priority | |
| CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS | Placed in the top 3 AND | Placed in the top 5 / Pending Successful Petition* AND | Placed in the top 3 OR | Placed in the top 5 OR |
| CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES * | Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds M – 289.18 | Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds M – 272.04 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds | Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds M – 245.99 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds | Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds M – 225.55 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds |
Men
Group 1 - Nathan Chen (320.88 Worlds 2021; 269.37 SkAm; 307.18 SCI; GPF)
Group 2 - Vincent Zhou (70.51 Worlds 2021; 288.26 Cranberry; 284.23 CS Nebelhorn; 295.56 SkAm; 260.69 NHK; GPF)
Group 3 - Jason Brown (262.17 Worlds 2021; 262.52 CS Finlandia; 259.55 SCI; 264.20 IdF; GPF)
Group 4 -
- Jimmy Ma (230.59 Cranberry; 233.58 US Classic; 228.12 SkAm; 195.09 CS Warsaw; 250.97 CS Golden Spin)
- Ilia Malinin (214.64 JGP Courchevel 1; 245.35 JGP Austria; 222.55 CS Austria; JGPF)
Others with International Assignments
Yaroslav Paniot (210.84 Cranberry)
Camden Pulkinen (179.50 Cranberry; 208.99 US Classic; 204.24 CS Finlandia; 193.18 NHK; 237.97 Rostelecom)
Dinh Tran (176.72 US Classic)
I am not saying that in the selection criteria. Right now Jason does not have the international scores to put him in anything other than group 3.
Further there is an asterisk that says that they can take into account other data. Ilia scored very high close to top 10 worlds at a JGP with less elements and men not belong allowed to do quads in the short.
Skaters per the rules are prioritized if they show they can score around the top 5 in the world. Jason hasn’t all season.
missing
Well-Known To Whom She Wonders
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I like this whether it involves Jason or Vincent.
I think the value of Nationals is degraded if head to head matchups are meaningless. I don't think BOW should be held up as an impenetrable shield when certain athletes haven't had the opportunity to compete against each other. And I really dislike the concept of an athlete being held back. Japan currently has a number of very strong men skaters. If Kagiyama had been held back for a year he wouldn't be reigning World Silver medalist with a great shot at medaling at the Olympics.
I'm an equal opportunity fan. Heck, I'd have been fine with Kamila winning Rostelecom Cup Men's. She had the point total to do so!
Karen-W
How long do we have to wait for GP assignments?
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No, it doesn't. The selection criteria says this:
Make of that what you will but it's almost impossible to compare Jason and Ilia's international scores. My bet is that they consider "forecasting peak performance" and "scores at the most important time of the year, immediately preceding the 2022 OWG" as deciding factors if Ilia blows it out of the water tomorrow, consistency or trending scores be damned.
misskarne
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Now you're being disingenuous and you damn well know it, becca.
In 2014 Jason's BOW was actually very comparable. His GP results were a bronze and fifth (as well as a silver at Nebelhorn). He was also the reigning Junior World silver medallist, though this was not considered. Meanwhile, the other main contenders: Max Aaron (GP: bronze and 7th, gold US Classic), Jeremy Abbott (GP: bronze and 6th), and Adam Rippon (GP: silver and 4th).
So as you can see, bronze and fifth stacks up quite nicely next to those other GP results, and he and Max were the only two out of those four who also did CS events. In other words, Jason's BOW was absolutely comparable, and the situation was totally unlike this one.
Vagabond
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@Karen-W You are right, as you have been throughout this season. I prefer these criteria to what came before, but I don't think they're perfect, especially when it comes to young skaters who are rapidly improving or those who miss part of the season but perform well at Nationals. I think it's more of an issue in the former situation in the latter.
I mean… Every single one of Jason’s international scores is higher than any single one of Ilia’s scores, including the senior event where Ilia was on a level playing field. So I wouldn’t go all the way to “impossible.” But yes, there are other factors worth considering and if Ilia has another great skate tomorrow would certainly be one of those factors.
On the other hand, if Jason has another great skate tomorrow, he’s also peaking at the right time. His peak just doesn’t involve quite as many of those spinny things in the air that everyone gets so excited about.
It’s all a lot of ifs. We’re going to have an amazing Olympic team regardless, if the skating tomorrow is even half as good as it was today. (And they don’t all test positive for YKW next week.)
I love this thread so much 
Really, it's fantastic reading. I hope all men in the final flight (well, and Camden and Yaroslav) deliver similar performances tomorrow to what we saw today. Those 7 are so far ahead of the rest of the pack but there's some real overall skating quality in the earlier groups, too.
Really, it's fantastic reading. I hope all men in the final flight (well, and Camden and Yaroslav) deliver similar performances tomorrow to what we saw today. Those 7 are so far ahead of the rest of the pack but there's some real overall skating quality in the earlier groups, too.
Karen-W
How long do we have to wait for GP assignments?
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Well, I did say "almost impossible" not "impossible".
I agree, tomorrow is, hopefully, going to be another fantastic display from our men. The dance teams really brought it tonight and we can only hope for the same from the men!
i didn’t remember much everything of 2014. It’s been that long just as he was an upcomer.
One could point Illia qualified first into the Junior GPF. Junior worlds wasn’t an option.
It’s not like his quads are questionable at times like Vincent. I don’t think Ilias talent is questionable technically.
I have been consistent through the years on the fact that I think young skaters who show talent to compete at the highest levels should be given priority over skaters who have shown they cannot compete technically.
This isn’t a knock on Jason who is a beautiful skater. But he is a top ten not a top three or top five. Ilia i think very quickly could be a top five if given the chance to compete.
Except most of Ilia’s scores come from Juniors. They aren’t comparable. Time and time again Junior skaters jump up to seniors and immediately get a big PCs boost. They also have less elements and are not allows to do quads in the short.
People were arguing about this with Vincent four years ago. And he ended up on the world podium a year later. Something Jason has never achieved even though yes Jason is more consistent than Vincent obviously.
Ilia technically is stronger than Vincent was four years ago.
Karen-W
How long do we have to wait for GP assignments?
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You know, reading the five bullet points over with regard to Jason and Ilia... The same bullet points are each their weakness and their strength.
Jason IS consistent and that's great but he has no real upward or downward trend. His scores from Worlds 2021 through 3 fall events are within a 5 point range. Yeah, he is consistently scoring somewhere that lands him in the Worlds Top 10, but he's not scoring anywhere that gets him into Worlds Top 5 let alone near the podium.
Ilia is the opposite. His scores are inconsistent as heck - which is to be expected of a young athlete who doesn't have the same level of competitive experience as someone 9 years older, especially when you add in the total lack of a junior international season last year. Having said that, he's shown that he has the potential to score at least as high as Jason has done internationally with that really great JGP Austria result. No, the CS Austria SP didn't go as well but he did bounce back rather nicely in the FS.
I don't know what the IC will do but, given how hard it is to really compare their international scores, my gut says that the Nationals result might carry more weight than some of you are going to like should the standings remain the same tomorrow as they are now.
Jason IS consistent and that's great but he has no real upward or downward trend. His scores from Worlds 2021 through 3 fall events are within a 5 point range. Yeah, he is consistently scoring somewhere that lands him in the Worlds Top 10, but he's not scoring anywhere that gets him into Worlds Top 5 let alone near the podium.
Ilia is the opposite. His scores are inconsistent as heck - which is to be expected of a young athlete who doesn't have the same level of competitive experience as someone 9 years older, especially when you add in the total lack of a junior international season last year. Having said that, he's shown that he has the potential to score at least as high as Jason has done internationally with that really great JGP Austria result. No, the CS Austria SP didn't go as well but he did bounce back rather nicely in the FS.
I don't know what the IC will do but, given how hard it is to really compare their international scores, my gut says that the Nationals result might carry more weight than some of you are going to like should the standings remain the same tomorrow as they are now.
And people keep on saying Jason Olympics Ilia for worlds but in reality the better scenario for USFSA would be the opposite one.
Send Jason to earn the spots for worlds next year and Illia to the Olympics where nothing is on the line.
Although it would be cruel to Jason.
Send Jason to earn the spots for worlds next year and Illia to the Olympics where nothing is on the line.
Although it would be cruel to Jason.
Based on your analysis, it’s also possible they realize they might end up needing one of these guys in the team event (I don’t wish anything on anyone, but realistically?) and they go with the one who has a proven track record just in case. Could go either way. And if one or both of these guys has a worse day tomorrow, that changes the whole conversation regardless.
No. Chen would almost certainly do the short program and Zhou would likely do the long. If one of them would be out, then the one remaining does the short and whoever the other team USA member is can do the long. Brown wouldn't be needed for anything, and even if someone would be needed for a hypothetical LP with only 5 nations competing, Malinin would have just as good a chance of finishing where Brown would place against JPN, RUS, CAN, and whoever else qualifies (let's say CHN).
Brown is not 'needed' in the same way Rippon was not needed for the 2018 team event, as some people tried to suggest his naming to the team was based upon. That argument in 2018 was very weak IMO. Adam finished 4th of the 5 guys in the mens LP.
Why would they use him in the team when they have Vincent and Chen. I would put either Nathan or Vincent up twice before I would go Jason. If they want gold they need first in men in both events and Jason won’t give them that
misskarne
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Oh, convenient.
Vincent's been to Worlds three times, becca. What were his other two results?
We finally agree on something.
But four years ago Vincent had at least made his Senior GP debut, even if it hadn't gone well. He had scores from Senior events and a body of work from Senior events to work with. There was also a wider pool of contenders for those spots.
Do you also hold Elena Liashenko in higher regard for all of her top 10 placements versus someone who got onto the podium? Brown is absolutely great, but who cares about what Zhou has done in his other two attempts when he has a medal (so far) to show for it?
VGThuy
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Hasn’t shown up in his international scores yet and that’s accounting for this cycle having +-5 range compared to the +-3 range from four years ago. Vincent was also showing scores comparable to what Jason and Adam were getting at his senior events in the Fall of 2017-18... Something Ilia failed to get close to at his senior event this fall. Even if you were to add twenty points to Ilia’s two junior scores, only one comes close to Jason. His senior score isn’t even close. And there’s no real deficit in the LP as the men can do quads there and they have the same amount of jumping passes as senior men. You can add 3-5 points for choreo sequence and be generous and add five points to PCS (I do think that’s generous) and do the same for the SP and maybe add ten points for missing quads for the SP. Jason is still highly competitive with Ilia.
Now, if Ilia skates lights out in the LP and blows Jason away, then I’m all for Ilia making the team, especially if Jason implodes. However, I think we should let the scores dictate who should make the team. Every other argument about placing Ilia over Jason moves away from fair play and goes into supposition territory which is unfair and unsportsmanlike. Don’t like that Jason scores well internationally? Blame the international judges and IJS for rewarding what he does well.
It’s not Ilia’s fault that there was a world wide pandemic that but all junior events last year out the window. If he had been able to compete in Juniors last year it’s quite possible he would do Seniirs this year.
He qualifies first in the JGPF. And put up a big number in Austria. Ilia skates like he did today he will move up like wild fire in the Senior men’s field anyone who says anything different isn’t being objective.
The best they are looking at from Jason is maybe a top seven. Ilia could probably do that to
If Jason places top three at nationals I am fine with him on the team. However I don’t think Jason has done enough to warrant placement if Ilia beats him.
I said before I am not a fan of body of work unless a skater has show repeatedly that they are top five Olympic/world medal medalist worthy.
As for Vincent he has a world medal. He is scoring world medalist worthy scores this season.
You aren’t losing much of anything taking Ilia over Jason given Jason is not likely to medal
They wouldn’t, obviously. But there’s a pretty big unknown out there in terms of the health of all the athletes, and USFS thought getting them all together in one place a month before the Olympics was a good idea anyway. I sincerely hope all these kids will stay healthy from now until the end of time, but I can’t imagine the selection committee would make any decisions without considering plan B at this point.
And I'm curious how using Brown in a field of 5 in the LP is going to be any different than using Malinin?
I don’t see why it would hurt to use Ilia. His short might score very well.
Might not make a difference, but we know Jason could be high as second - he’s beaten everyone but the Japanese men among the likely competitors. We don’t know what Ilia would do.
I don’t find the team event argument that compelling either, honestly. But I also don’t think any of this is anything besides wild speculation until we see what happens tomorrow. Jason is the only skater in group three right now. When there’s another one, we’ll see what the committee does. Like I said before, I think we’ll have a great team regardless. This is light years ahead of where the U.S. men we’re in 2018, and lots of talent in the pipeline too.
If Jason beats those other men that’s because they made mistakes. Kolyoda a lot of them. (Something he is likely to do) Ilia could also beat them with mistakes. I frankly think the US would use Chen in both before they put in Ilia or Brown.
