U.S. Women [#2]: The Unbearable Lightness of Beijing

[Theatregirl1122]

Based on Body of Work stats, I'm now leaning towards:

1st alternate - Lindsay (median international scores = top 10 in World)
2nd alternate - Amber (median international scores = top 15 in World)
3rd alternate - Gabby (4th at Nationals, but doesn't have the international resume)


As for Team Competition, they need a Test Skate for Alysa Liu. If she does well, I'd have Alysa do both SP and LP in Team Competition. Mariah's jump content may struggle to beat the top Canadian lady (Schizas) and also the top Georgia lady (Gubanova - who is originally from Russia and has multiple 3/3s).

Sorry, unless I have the wrong info, Lindsay's median is 184.40 and Amber's is 183.41. They are both in group 4 with the top 15 in the world. How did you calculate Lindsay's median as being above 193.40? Did I miss a score?

 

[Karen-W]

Based on Body of Work stats, I'm now leaning towards:

1st alternate - Lindsay (median international scores 187.61 = top 10 in World)
2nd alternate - Amber (median international scores 183.46 = top 15 in World)
3rd alternate - Gabby (4th at Nationals with 188.11, but the scores are highly inflated at Nationals!)


As for Team Competition, they need a Test Skate for Alysa Liu. If she does well, I'd have Alysa do both SP and LP in Team Competition. Mariah's jump content may struggle to beat the top Canadian lady (Schizas) and also the top Georgia lady (Gubanova - who is originally from Russia and has multiple 3/3s).

Doesn't work that way according to the Selection Criteria. Once the Group placements are finalized after the results of Nationals are known, they're then ranked according to their BEST international score. Amber is ahead of Lindsay due to her 201.02 at SkAm.

Here's the update to the Group rankings:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 / Pending Successful Petition* AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds W – 217.20	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds W – 208.44 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds W – 193.44 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds W – 178.10 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Group 2 - Alysa Liu* (205.74 Cranberry; 219.24 CS Lombardia; 207.40 CS Nebelhorn; 206.53 SCI; 202.90 NHK) withdrawn from Nationals 1/7 (C19), 3rd after SP

Group 3 -

• Mariah Bell (179.42 Cranberry; 190.79 IdF; 210.35 Rostelecom) 1st 2022 Nationals
• Karen Chen (208.63 Worlds 2021; 173.00 CS ACI; 202.49 CS Finlandia; 183.41 SCI; 194.00 IdF) 2nd 2022 Nationals

Group 4 -

• Amber Glenn (183.46 CS Finlandia; 201.02 SkAm; 175.83 NHK; 183.36 CS Golden Spin) withdrawn from Nationals 1/7 (C19), 14th after SP
• Lindsay Thorngren (181.45 JGP Courchevel 1; 193.77 JGP Ljubljana; 184.40 CS Warsaw; JGPF) 5th 2022 Nationals
• Gabriella Izzo (182.76 US Classic; 155.78 CS Warsaw; 167.96 CS Golden Spin) 4th 2022 Nationals

Others with International Assignments

• Starr Andrews (155.25 CS ACI; 177.63 SkAm; 157.35 CS Austria)
• Hanna Harrell (158.89 CS Golden Spin)
• Audrey Shin (174.73 Cranberry; 172.46 CS Lombardia; 160.78 SkAm; 169.99 CS Austria)
• Sierra Venetta (159.72 Cranberry; 177.40 US Classic)

 

[shuilee]

Thanks for the correction. In that case, it sounds like the selection committee should go with:

1st Alternate - Amber Glenn
2nd Alternate - Lindsay Thorngren
3rd Alternate - Gabby Rizzo

 

[Karen-W]

My best guess as to the Olympic team, Olympic alternates, 4CCs, Jr Worlds and Worlds assignments:

Olympics:
1 - Mariah Bell (Team Event)
2 - Karen Chen
3 - Alysa Liu
Alt 1 - Amber Glenn
Alt 2 - Lindsay Thorngren
Alt 3 - Gabriella Izzo

4CCs:
1 - Gabriella Izzo
2 - Audrey Shin
3 - Hanna Harrell
Alt 1 - Starr Andrews
Alt 2 - Sierra Venetta
Alt 3 - Lindsay Thorngren (she'll get WS points from Jr Worlds)

Jr Worlds:
1 - Isabeau Levito
2 - Lindsay Thorngren
3 - Clare Seo (Jr Champion)
Alt 1 - Kate Wang
Alt 2 - Ava Ziegler
Alt 3 - Josephine Lee

Worlds:
1 - Mariah Bell
2 - Karen Chen
3 - Alysa Liu
Alt 1 - Amber Glenn
Alt 2 - Lindsay Thorngren
Alt 3 - Gabriella Izzo

 

[wickedwitch]

I saw this on twitter for those who have already or will in the next few days test positive: https://twitter.com/DahliaSkates/status/1479546259069353994

I read the IOC playbook. If you recover from COVID within 30 days of the Olympics, you have to have two negative PCR tests 24 hours apart submitted 8 working days before departure, on top of the two listed in the tweet. That means ~1 week for recovery and tests starting now.

I can't vouch for the accuracy, but hopefully Alysa and Amber gets better soon.

 

[VGThuy]

I saw this on twitter for those who have already or will in the next few days test positive: https://twitter.com/DahliaSkates/status/1479546259069353994

I can't vouch for the accuracy, but hopefully Alysa and Amber gets better soon.

That doesn’t bode well for the skaters who just got exposed and probably won’t get symptoms till five days later or something.

 

[Karen-W]

That doesn’t bode well for the skaters who just got exposed and probably won’t get symptoms till five days later or something.

The IOC is going to have to revisit these requirements with the Chinese government with Omicron going wild.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

hmmm sooooooo only Starr and the 2 women straight out of juniors did 3/3s???

 

[VGThuy]

hmmm sooooooo only Starr and the 2 women straight out of juniors did 3/3s???

In this case, it wouldn’t have mattered if Karen placed her 3Toe after her 2A or her 3Lz since it got called > anyway. Now had her 3Toe got ratified, she would have been close to matching Levito’s base value and she had a ratified 3/3.
Of course, had Levito had her Sal on her 3/1/3 called clean, she would have been ahead by where she is now with Karen’s clean 3toe.

 

[On My Own]

Olympics:
1 - Mariah Bell (Team Event)
2 - Karen Chen
3 - Alysa Liu
Alt 1 - Amber Glenn
Alt 2 - Lindsay Thorngren
Alt 3 - Gabriella Izzo

Why do you think Amber will be chosen as first alternate over Izzo and Thorngren? She did very badly in the SP, and didn't compete in the LP (even if for understandable reasons).

 

[VGThuy]

Why do you think Amber will be chosen as first alternate over Izzo and Thorngren? She did very badly in the SP, and didn't compete in the LP (even if for understandable reasons).

Because of the selection criteria.

 

[On My Own]

Because of the selection criteria.

I didn't realize Glenn was doing decently on the selection criteria. I don't remember her being particularly good at international competitions...

 

[VGThuy]

I didn't realize Glenn was doing decently on the selection criteria. I don't remember her being particularly good at international competitions...

Her LP score at Skate America was actually pretty good in comparison to the worlds scores and also, nobody outside the top 2 plus Alysa who are age-eligible did better.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I pretty much 100% agree with all of @karen-W’s team picks except I’d list more than 3 Olympic alternates. I’d list the rest of the 4CC team and alternates.

 

[Karen-W]

I pretty much 100% agree with all of @karen-W’s team picks except I’d list more than 3 Olympic alternates. I’d list the rest of the 4CC team and alternates.

The Selection Criteria doc says the IC shall name at least 1 and up to 3 alternates, otherwise I'd be naming more also, lol.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

Amber Glenn tested positive as well.

I was a already in a million depressions because of Brandon and Alysa. I enjoyed the ladies FS but I was bummed out again when they announced on NBC that Amber withdrew too. There will be favorite individual performances for me, but this will go down as one of my least favorite Nationals ever.

 

[gkelly]

It's still a national championships, and competing is still important to make the Olympic team.

It's still a national championships, and it still serves all the other purposes that Nationals serves in non-Olympic years.

Nevertheless, because of the potential for illness and withdrawals, it's less satisfying that in non-***** years, especially for those who get sick and/or have to withdraw.

 

[Frau Muller]

…..t this will go down as one of my least favorite Nationals ever.

I couldn’t have said it better.

 

[Coco]

I have a feeling that Izzo may be 1st or 2nd alternate. Primarily due to Skate Club of Boston pull but "trending" and the significance of Nationals will be cited as the reasons. Also, it is possible Thorngren hurt herself slightly on that opening axel attempt last night ...who knows.

 

[pointbleu]

Doesn't work that way according to the Selection Criteria. Once the Group placements are finalized after the results of Nationals are known, they're then ranked according to their BEST international score. Amber is ahead of Lindsay due to her 201.02 at SkAm.

Here's the update to the Group rankings:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 / Pending Successful Petition* AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds W – 217.20	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds W – 208.44 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds W – 193.44 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds W – 178.10 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Group 2 - Alysa Liu* (205.74 Cranberry; 219.24 CS Lombardia; 207.40 CS Nebelhorn; 206.53 SCI; 202.90 NHK) withdrawn from Nationals 1/7 (C19), 3rd after SP

Group 3 -

• Mariah Bell (179.42 Cranberry; 190.79 IdF; 210.35 Rostelecom) 1st 2022 Nationals
• Karen Chen (208.63 Worlds 2021; 173.00 CS ACI; 202.49 CS Finlandia; 183.41 SCI; 194.00 IdF) 2nd 2022 Nationals

Group 4 -

• Amber Glenn (183.46 CS Finlandia; 201.02 SkAm; 175.83 NHK; 183.36 CS Golden Spin) withdrawn from Nationals 1/7 (C19), 14th after SP
• Lindsay Thorngren (181.45 JGP Courchevel 1; 193.77 JGP Ljubljana; 184.40 CS Warsaw; JGPF) 5th 2022 Nationals
• Gabriella Izzo (182.76 US Classic; 155.78 CS Warsaw; 167.96 CS Golden Spin) 4th 2022 Nationals

Others with International Assignments

• Starr Andrews (155.25 CS ACI; 177.63 SkAm; 157.35 CS Austria)
• Hanna Harrell (158.89 CS Golden Spin)
• Audrey Shin (174.73 Cranberry; 172.46 CS Lombardia; 160.78 SkAm; 169.99 CS Austria)
• Sierra Venetta (159.72 Cranberry; 177.40 US Classic)

Juniors have one element less so their score will always be lower somehow. That should be taken into consideration too.

 

[barbk]

I'd be hesitant to send any of the Olympic alternates to 4CCs. Normally it serves as a consolation prize in Olympic years...but given the Omicron issues, you may wipe out a bunch of the Olympic alternates. Tough decision all the way around.

 

[wickedwitch]

She's getting lost in the shuffle a bit, but congrats to Hanna Harrell on her very solid competition! She was 6th in the LP (and should have been 5th, IMO) and 8th overall. She will be still be junior eligible next season. I'm not sure exactly what the USFSA's strategy should be with her, but they need to be sending her out to more events. IMO, she's one of the most talented girls they have at this time.

 

[olympic]

She's getting lost in the shuffle a bit, but congrats to Hanna Harrell on her very solid competition! She was 6th in the LP (and should have been 5th, IMO) and 8th overall. She will be still be junior eligible next season. I'm not sure exactly what the USFSA's strategy should be with her, but they need to be sending her out to more events. IMO, she's one of the most talented girls they have at this time.

Thank you. She really redeemed herself this year

 

[gatorinfl]

I was a already in a million depressions because of Brandon and Alysa. I enjoyed the ladies FS but I was bummed out again when they announced on NBC that Amber withdrew too. There will be favorite individual performances for me, but this will go down as one of my least favorite Nationals ever.

I agree. Plus I don’t like Peacock’s coverage and I’m too far from an NBC tower to get NBC.

 

[B.Cooper]

With all that the athletes have had to endure this season, sad to see so many w/d. And, agree with the statement above that this is probably my least favorite US Nationals in over two decades. We also were wondering when we might see the US ladies comeback to a jump technical level where they can compete for podium positions internationally....did not see evidence of that last night :-(

 

[Jammers]

With all that the athletes have had to endure this season, sad to see so many w/d. And, agree with the statement above that this is probably my least favorite US Nationals in over two decades. We also were wondering when we might see the US ladies comeback to a jump technical level where they can compete for podium positions internationally....did not see evidence of that last night :-(

It all comes down to a lack of good coaching. Tom Z and Tammy seem to be the go to coaches for so many skaters yet neither of them have what it takes to get these girls to the next level heck they can't even get their skaters to rotate their jumps. If US coaches don't get better this is the best we can do folks. Just look at some of the coaches for these ladies it's a far cry from the days of Frank Carrol or John Nicks. The talent is still there just look at the Olympics we dominate the Russians especially in the Summer Olympics if these skaters get the best coaches resources etc etc they can be as good as anyone in the world.

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

Wow, little talk of the skaters. Happy for Mariah. How wrong we can be. In the fall many assumed Mariah was done. Couldn't get her 3-3 tack. Many single 3's were looking wonky. With her "advanced" age it was likely she wouldn't get to the Olys.

Yes it's a crazy year but still great to see her get the title. I'm guessing her 3-3 will be back in the long by Bejing. I tink Alysa will get the 3rd spot. And, they'll split the team event. But, not sure how. Maybe Mariah for short and Karen for long?

 

[mtnskater]

She's getting lost in the shuffle a bit, but congrats to Hanna Harrell on her very solid competition! She was 6th in the LP (and should have been 5th, IMO) and 8th overall. She will be still be junior eligible next season. I'm not sure exactly what the USFSA's strategy should be with her, but they need to be sending her out to more events. IMO, she's one of the most talented girls they have at this time.

Her jumps did look good but in the arena her lack of skating skills, performance/musicality, line and stretch really need work. But truly some of her jumps with arms over the head were impressive.

 

[mtnskater]

So happy for Mariah to get a national title. Such an accomplishment after all the years of getting close while continuing to work and keep at it! She was radiating joy and celebration after the win all through the medal ceremony and afterward. And we were all celebrating with her! A lot of the audience stayed for the medals ceremony this time.

 

[Wyliefan]

Her jumps did look good but in the arena her lack of skating skills, performance/musicality, line and stretch really need work. But truly some of her jumps with arms over the head were impressive.

I'm a fan of Hanna, and I'm really glad she's back, but I miss the old spark in her skating. Probably too much to expect after she's had to deal with injury and battle to come back. Hope she gets that spark back one of these days!