U.S. Women [#5]: Remain on the Dance Floor

[Karen-W]

Ava Marie Ziegler has withdrawn from nationals and has been replaced by Brooke Gewalt

https://x.com/anythinggoe/status/1748028178210152651?s=46&t=t-qfJxDjad9-j4B-GsMqGg

Ava Marie Ziegler has withdrawn from Nationals

2024 Prevagen U.S. Figure Skating Championships Lineup Announced - U.S. Figure Skating Fan Zone

More than 180 athletes have qualified for the 2024 Prevagen U.S. Figure Skating Championships, which will take place Jan. 22-28 in Columbus, Ohio.

usfigureskatingfanzone.com

She is still listed on the 4CCs entries list but that hasn't been updated since Monday. I am so bummed for her having to WD from Nationals.

 

[Wyliefan]

That sucks. If there's an injury, I hope it isn't serious.

 

[Firedancer]

Ava Marie Ziegler withdrew to focus on 4CC:

Ava Ziegler withdraws from figure skating nationals to focus on Four Continents

Ava Ziegler, the U.S.' No. 2 women's singles skater this season, will miss nationals.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Rukia]

That is certainly a choice

 

[jlai]

Ok, so now I wonder if USFS delays annoucing the world team or not. (I doubt it, they never do but you never know)

 

[Wyliefan]

Well, now we can have a poll over who made the worse choice, Kaiya or Ava!

 

[Karen-W]

Ok, so now I wonder if USFS delays annoucing the world team or not. (I doubt it, they never do but you never know)

I think it will depend on how the other leading contenders for the Worlds team skate at Nats.

I worry that Ava is putting too much pressure on herself to do very well/medal at 4CCs.

 

[tony]

Well, now we can have a poll over who made the worse choice, Kaiya or Ava!

Only if it is solely US-based fans who get to share their opinion

 

[Debbie S]

I think it will depend on how the other leading contenders for the Worlds team skate at Nats.

I worry that Ava is putting too much pressure on herself to do very well/medal at 4CCs.

She would have had a better chance of medaling at Nats than at 4CC. Why couldn't she do both? Others are. Nats placement can also determine envelope funding for next season. Plus by finishing top 5 at Nats, skaters get an automatic bye to next year's Nats....maybe she'll get a bye anyway based on fall int'ls but we don't know what will happen between now and then.

 

[honey]

I have to wonder if she has an assurance that the world team will not be picked until after 4CC. Otherwise it seems like she is just asking to get played out of a spot at worlds before she ever gets to show her stuff at 4CC.

This is extremely odd reason they have given for not doing nationals. Not sure I entirely buy it tbh.

 

[Karen-W]

She would have had a better chance of medaling at Nats than at 4CC. Why couldn't she do both? Others are. Nats placement can also determine envelope funding for next season. Plus by finishing top 5 at Nats, skaters get an automatic bye to next year's Nats....maybe she'll get a bye anyway based on fall int'ls but we don't know what will happen between now and then.

Yeah - at best, I think she's penciled herself in as 1st or 2nd alternate for Worlds.

 

[BittyBug]

It does seem odd but I assume that she and her team made this decision in consultation with U.S. Figure Skating.

 

[Rukia]

It does seem odd but I assume that she and her team made this decision in consultation with U.S. Figure Skating.

Maybe they did consult them and were given some kind of reassurances (although I would be surprised by this but stranger things have happened)

edited to say lol that's exactly what you said but my brain read it a different way anyway we agree it's weird but who knows

 

[leilaofpaper]

I hope this doesn’t put too much pressure on Ava to perform well at 4CCs.

 

[Karen-W]

It really is a strange decision. The Women's FS at Nats is next Friday night. I don't think USFS would have begrudged her if she requested to depart for Shanghai on Saturday and skip the gala. To just WD from Nats completely... Does she not want to risk her reputation by finishing lower at Nats than one of the alternates?

 

[jlai]

She would have had a better chance of medaling at Nats than at 4CC. Why couldn't she do both? Others are. Nats placement can also determine envelope funding for next season. Plus by finishing top 5 at Nats, skaters get an automatic bye to next year's Nats....maybe she'll get a bye anyway based on fall int'ls but we don't know what will happen between now and then.

She would need to place top 2 to be assured of a place at worlds right? Not as easy as one thinks.
In the past, ladies who peak at nationals sometimes have a slump at 4cc. So it depends on where you wanna put your focus.
4CC is a big competition for someone with 1.5 senior season under her belt. If (Big IF) she think she has a shot at worlds if she does well at 4cc, perhaps it is better to focus there?
With her win at NHK, is she guaranteed of team c?

 

[Karen-W]

She would need to place top 2 to be assured of a place at worlds right? Not as easy as one thinks.
In the past, ladies who peak at nationals sometimes have a slump at 4cc. So it depends on where you wanna put your focus.
4CC is a big competition for someone with 1.5 senior season under her belt. If (Big IF) she think she has a shot at worlds if she does well at 4cc, perhaps it is better to focus there?
With her win at NHK, is she guaranteed of team c?

No - she's actually guaranteed Team A-Tier 2 -

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2024-2025%20Athlete%20Support%20Funding%20Criteria.pdf

 

[Vagabond]

She would have had a better chance of medaling at Nats than at 4CC. Why couldn't she do both? Others are. Nats placement can also determine envelope funding for next season. Plus by finishing top 5 at Nats, skaters get an automatic bye to next year's Nats....maybe she'll get a bye anyway based on fall int'ls but we don't know what will happen between now and then.

Ziegler can't earn World Standings points at Nationals, but she can earn them at Four Continents. Maybe that's what matters more to her right now.

We all knew that skaters who competed at both Nationals and Four Continents would have to make haste and cross several time zones between the competitions. This is one way around the problem.

 

[PRlady]

Ava Marie Ziegler has withdrawn from nationals and has been replaced by Brooke Gewalt

https://x.com/anythinggoe/status/1748028178210152651?s=46&t=t-qfJxDjad9-j4B-GsMqGg

Nooooooo. Between this and H/B’s withdrawal I’m bereft of my uberdom.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Whoaaaaa this is crazy, I think USFSA did itself a disservice by naming a team before US nationals.

For that matter, why doesnt Amber and Lindsay withdraw as well since USFSA seems to already name Isabeau as US champion.

but at least I now know she’s not injured and this is giving me some drama, like 1990s drama that I have been missing

 

[Wyliefan]

Nooooooo. Between this and H/B’s withdrawal I’m bereft of my uberdom.

I was thinking of you with all this. don't know what you did to offend the skategods, but we need to find a way to undo it!

 

[jlai]

Whoaaaaa this is crazy, I think USFSA did itself a disservice by naming a team before US nationals.

For that matter, why doesmy Amber and Lindsay withdraw as well since USFSA seems to already name Isabeau as US champion.

but at least I now know she’s not injured and this is giving me some drama, like 1990s drama that I have been missing

But I thought they have to name a team? That's not an option?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I wonder if USFSA has already constructed the women’s world’s team already. And if Ava is part of it

 

[jiejie]

Ziegler can't earn World Standings points at Nationals, but she can earn them at Four Continents. Maybe that's what matters more to her right now.

I think that is exactly what's going on. Team Ziegler is playing the long game and looking ahead to next season. I'm sure this decision was made after 1) looking at the Entries List for 4CC and 2) consulting with USFS.

Entries: Looking at potential competitors to Ava, I see maybe 8: Schizas, Chiba, Mihara, Watanabe, Kim, Lee, Glenn, Thorngren. IMO, Watanabe, Kim, Thorngren are the main threats, assuming Ava herself doesn't implode. Schizas is having issues this season, Chiba can't seem to get it together, Mihara is depleted, just not herself this season, Lee (like Mihara) was already beaten by Ava at NHK, and Glenn is unreliable especially her FS. Team Ziegler has probably done the math and figures that worst case, a 4th place at FCC is worth 612 points. Even if she got to Worlds, she'd have to place 7th or better to get at least the equivalent amount of points...and she knows that isn't likely to happen. A win at 4CC--tough but possible--is worth 840 points, worth better than a 5th place finish at Worlds.

USFS: Has undoubtedly looked at the international scores of all the US ladies, and who is trending up (Ziegler, Thorngren), vs who is going sideways or even down (everybody else in contention for a Nationals medal). Might also have discussed (warned) Ziegler that skipping Nationals is a black mark against Worlds selection but if she was OK with potentially being skipped over this year, so be it. I'd be pretty sure that USFS wouldn't commit to holding a Worlds' spot as TBA until after FCC was over. But they could if they wanted to.

It's a gamble for Ziegler, but in her shoes, I'd be tempted to do the same thing. It's an interesting strategy, let's see if she can produce. A win at FCC or even a medal, would definitely get her further up the World Standings ladder and in better position for next season.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

. IMO, Watanabe, Kim, Thorngren are the main threats,

thank God it’s just your opinion

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

USFS: Has undoubtedly looked at the international scores of all the US ladies, and who is trending up (Ziegler, Thorngren

omg what do you put in your breakfast cereal? You’re so biased lol.

Glenn trended up she went from 5th to a medal, bronze I believe

Ava only had one single assignment, which was to substitute someone who withdrew, so there’s no trending.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Can’t wait to the boys and Alissa disect this over at TSL but who can sit down for 90 minutes to watch all that lol

 

[jiejie]

omg what do you put in your breakfast cereal? You’re so biased lol.

Glenn trended up she went from 5th to a medal, bronze I believe

Ava only had one single assignment, so there’s no trending.

I'm looking at trending scores, not placements. (Hint: skating scores website is your friend) Glenn's bronze with a score of 185.39 isn't all that impressive--she had a bad SP, great FS, but got a bit lucky that Chaeyeon Kim messed up her FS. I actually like Amber, but years of following her inability to put 2 strong performances together in one competition, has made me throw up my hands in surrender. It's not lack of ability, it's control of her nerves that she just can't manage. If she could, she'd be a 210+ scoring skater and with the 3A, could whoosh past Levito.

For any of the skaters, look at scores from ALL internationals from the season, including Challengers (and B's, if any of the ladies participated, I can't remember those).

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

but years of following her inability to put 2 strong performances together in one competition,

yeah, but then you should apply your same theories and principles to everyone… Years of Lindsay and inability to rotate triple jumps… She got lucky in Japan.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Anyway, this certainly is interesting it’s giving me the drama that I like. Lol I still wonder if the worlds team has been named but the public doesn’t know about it. I really would like to think Ava wants on that world team and wouldnt jeopardize anything to not be on it.