U.S. Women [#5]: Remain on the Dance Floor

[Theatregirl1122]

You can only compete against those at the event. Ava Marie and Lindsey came in 1st and second, so they did the best it was possible to do at that event.

 

[Lacey]

Kind of amazed that NBC actually played the National Anthem portion of the medal ceremony for Ava Marie at NHK on the recap show today. Seems like they never did that for Nathan and I can’t recall them doing that for Ilia or Isabeau either.

Johnny said Ava’s jump technique was much improved and that before she would jump up with her arms and then pull them in and now she is better at pulling them in quicker. He also said he loved Lindsay’s “icy cool” and “steely” demeanor.

Ava got a story on CNN’s website too. As did Isabeau and Ilia when they won.

Yes, & Ava (is it always w. Marie?) actually sang the words to the Nat. Anthem, & NBC filmed that part, good for her!

Also it was sweet to see Ava & Lindsay greet with huge hugs when they first saw each other after the rankings had figured out that they were 1-2, both enthusiastically greeting each other--no matter who won, they finished together. NBC took the time for that also, maybe we have a new, don't laugh, personable NBC?

Someone above mentioned the change in Ava's coaching to Oleg Makarov & Larisa Selezneva as being shockingly new. Well, I noticed Ava was thrilled to grab hands with whomever was her woman coach (Larisa?) in the K&C, so she seems happy. Personally, I see nothing wrong w. changing coaches any time, there are many possible reasons.

I knew Ava's mother, Tricia Mansfield, when she was single & skating out of Wilmington & came to Ardmore to also be coached by Diane Aigle. Tricia ended up switching to her pro career there before she went to NJ. One of my girls took from her. My girls both went into dance, so we gave Tricia up as a singles coach, but she was a GREAT teacher & person & was very understanding of our needs. She must be so thrilled that Ava is doing so well! Ava's jumps are very high so the 3-3s will come, & she got a lot of points for her triple whatever it was/2Ax/2Ax. I see tremendous growth & better style in her arm positions and overall beauty. She is doing fine and can only get better.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I am watching the current TSL from yesterday. I still can’t believe Allisa wants to participate in these, however, David did say and criticize USFSA for not having Ava with a second assignment at skate America and that due to be giving the skaters all these sKate offs like at champ camp when the US already knew before that they were going to give it to Clare and then he says what has Claire done…

wow

this podcast or episodes are so long that I can watch them all in one sitting

 

[jlai]

Nats ends on Sunday. 4CCs practices start on Tuesday but the competition doesn't begin until Thursday. The quickest flight combo I can find on Google leaves Columbus early Monday for Detroit with a 2.5 hr layover and a 16hr flight directly to Shanghai which would have them arriving Tuesday mid-afternoon.

Google Travel

www.google.com

Theoretically, if the USFS was willing to let them skip the Gala, the women, pairs and dance entrants could depart over the weekend as soon as their competitions are complete, but I don't see that happening.

Also, I think you're confusing 2024 4CCs with 2023 4CCs (which the USFS took over from Australia). According to this post - https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...24-future-bids-discussion.108353/post-6261975 - Shanghai was one of two bids for 2024 4CCs as of May 30, 2022 and they were selected to host at the ISU Congress the next month. As of March 2022, per that same thread, 2024 4CCs was still TBC by the ISU. The conflict with it being the week immediately following US Nats is purely on the USFS since Columbus wasn't announced as the host city until January 2023.


France was originally supposed to host the GPF but they backed out last summer and the CFSA put in a bid for Beijing to host. The ISU took them up on the offer (we have no idea if there were other bids or if Beijing was the only one).

So how do you think usfs would pick the 4cc team? This is unprecedented or is it?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

So how do you think usfs would pick the 4cc team? This is unprecedented or is it?

whoever has done a triple axel

 

[Karen-W]

So how do you think usfs would pick the 4cc team? This is unprecedented or is it?

Well, it all depends on which skaters WANT to go to 4CCs. I agree with most who expect Isabeau to pass - she's going to Beijing next week and certainly doesn't need the WS points for Worlds. Any of the rest would benefit from going to 4CCs. Unless Starr has an exceptional competition at Golden Spin, the three with the best scores internationally this season are Amber, Lindsay and Ava Marie - and it's not really close between them and the next tier, so those are the three I would select for the team.

 

[Marco]

Well, it all depends on which skaters WANT to go to 4CCs. I agree with most who expect Isabeau to pass - she's going to Beijing next week and certainly doesn't need the WS points for Worlds. Any of the rest would benefit from going to 4CCs. Unless Starr has an exceptional competition at Golden Spin, the three with the best scores internationally this season are Amber, Lindsay and Ava Marie - and it's not really close between them and the next tier, so those are the three I would select for the team.

What would be exciting is if Isabeau ran away with the title and skipped 4CCs, and Amber, Lindsay and Ava Marie were too close to call at Nationals and had to fight for that 2nd World spot at 4CCs. Too bad USFS seldomly used 4CCs as a decider.

Do we already know who the caller is for the women competition at 4CCs? That would very much decide Lindsay's fate.

 

[Karen-W]

What would be exciting is if Isabeau ran away with the title and skipped 4CCs, and Amber, Lindsay and Ava Marie were too close to call at Nationals and had to fight for that 2nd World spot at 4CCs. Too bad USFS seldomly used 4CCs as a decider.

They won't this time either, I don't believe.

 

[Ena Grins]

The USFS Worlds selection procedures say they'll choose the team right after the Nationals free skate events finish, per usual. My curiosity is around how the 4CC skaters will perform at Nationals, especially if any decide to withdraw or focus on peaking for 4CC, and how that might impact Worlds selection. TBH though - I think most skaters will still prioritize Nationals, even if they're assigned.

 

[Coco]

So they are picking the 4ccs team before nationals?

 

[Karen-W]

So they are picking the 4ccs team before nationals?

Yes, the 4CCs team is being selected on Dec 11th & 12th, after the GPF & Golden Spin.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

The USFS Worlds selection procedures say they'll choose the team right after the Nationals free skate events finish, per usual. My curiosity is around how the 4CC skaters will perform at Nationals, especially if any decide to withdraw or focus on peaking for 4CC, and how that might impact Worlds selection. TBH though - I think most skaters will still prioritize Nationals, even if they're assigned.

Does the selection document address whether you can be considered for worlds if you withdraw from nationals for non-injury reasons?

 

[VGThuy]

Yes, the 4CCs team is being selected on Dec 11th & 12th, after the GPF & Golden Spin.

Wow, that’s very new.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

Does the selection document address whether you can be considered for worlds if you withdraw from nationals for non-injury reasons?

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2024%20World%20Team%20Selection%20Procedures.pdf

Here's the selection document.

 

[toddlj]

And here's the one for 4CCs (that mentions selection dates of 12/11 and 12/12 that Karen-W referred to above)

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2024%20Four%20Continents%20Selection%20Procedures.pdf

I wonder if they will list several alternates and then possibly shake up the team after nationals.

 

[Karen-W]

And here's the one for 4CCs (that mentions selection dates of 12/11 and 12/12 that Karen-W referred to above)

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2024%20Four%20Continents%20Selection%20Procedures.pdf

I wonder if they will list several alternates and then possibly shake up the team after nationals.

Doubtful. The 4CCs team will most likely travel directly from Columbus to Shanghai and will need to have their airline tickets and visas before Nats.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Interesting I don’t like it, but interesting, lol

I wonder if they will pick skaters that are up-and-coming and eligible for the event and perhaps not focus on Isabeau Amber and Lindsay…

although if they did do that, and then those three place top three at nationals, one of them would not go to worlds or 4 cc.

so we just have another week or so to go until the Grand Prix final and golden spin starts, I think I can hold on

 

[Karen-W]

Interesting I don’t like it, but interesting, lol

I wonder if they will pick skaters that are up-and-coming and eligible for the event and perhaps not focus on Isabeau Amber and Lindsay…

although if they did do that, and then those three place top three at nationals, one of them would not go to worlds or 4 cc.

so we just have another week or so to go until the Grand Prix final and golden spin starts, I think I can hold on

Why don't you like it?

The USFS is doing their best to give the skaters assigned to 4CCs the best possible chance for success by selecting them this far in advance.

Additionally, the USFS has been, for several years, moving away from strictly selecting the Worlds or 4CCs teams based on the results of Nationals.

Isabeau is the only one of the three you mention who won't need the WS points from 4CCs to help with her WR for Worlds start orders. Right now, Lindsay is 15, Audrey 17, Amber 18 & Ava Marie 23 in the WS. They're going to drop behind a bunch of Pinzarrone 20 and a bunch of Euro women once those points are added. Presuming one of Lindsay, Amber or Ava Marie makes the Worlds team, they're going to need the points from 4CCs to get into the penultimate group for the SP at Worlds.

 

[VGThuy]

I think USFS is finally updating its international strategies and adopting and adapting some procedures other federations utilize but still have Nationals be a big influencer on deciding the Worlds and Olympic teams even though the BOW criteria becomes even more important and laid out for the latter.

 

[toddlj]

The performance data in the appendix sure doesn't help with this. None of them went to the olympics, or finished top 3 at 2023 4CCs or 2023 World Juniors. Only two ladies have any points at all.

2022 Olympics/ 2023 Worlds Champion receives 12 points, 2-3 receives 10 points, 4-8 receives 5 points (better placement of the two)
2023 Four Continents Top 3 receives 6 points, 4-5 receives 3 points
2023 World Juniors Top 3 receives 8 points
2023 U.S. Championships Champion receives 4 points, 2-3 receives 2 points

Isabeau: 2023 Worlds 4th - 5 points, 2023 US Champs 1st - 4 points. Total 9 points.
Amber: 2023 US Champs 3rd - 2 points

 

[Coco]

So nationals is everything

 

[Wyliefan]

So nationals is everything

We've come full circle.

 

[Allskate]

I don't think there's any chance that Isabeau would agree to do Four Continents. She got burned out last season. I doubt she wants to, yet again, travel half way around the world for a competition, instead of preparing for Worlds. Especially so soon after Nationals. There's no guarantee that she will make the Worlds team, but I would be shocked if she agreed to do Four Continents.

ETA: The selection criteria include taking into consideration whether athletes have demonstrated the ability to medal at the current ISU World Figure Skating Championships and have requested additional preparation for the current ISU World Figure Skating Championships. That clearly would include Ilia and C&B. This probably also includes Isabeau, since she came in fourth at Worlds last season and has qualified for the GP Final and has a relatively high world ranking. (I'm not saying that she is likely to medal at Worlds. I'm just saying that she probably falls into the category of demonstrating the ability to medal.)

Presuming one of Lindsay, Amber or Ava Marie makes the Worlds team, they're going to need the points from 4CCs to get into the penultimate group for the SP at Worlds.

I don't think it's worth traveling half way around the world to compete so soon after Nationals. IMO, they would be better off preparing for Worlds even if Four Continents would have changed what group they were in at Worlds.

 

[Karen-W]

The performance data in the appendix sure doesn't help with this. None of them went to the olympics, or finished top 3 at 2023 4CCs or 2023 World Juniors. Only two ladies have any points at all.

2022 Olympics/ 2023 Worlds Champion receives 12 points, 2-3 receives 10 points, 4-8 receives 5 points (better placement of the two)
2023 Four Continents Top 3 receives 6 points, 4-5 receives 3 points
2023 World Juniors Top 3 receives 8 points
2023 U.S. Championships Champion receives 4 points, 2-3 receives 2 points

Isabeau: 2023 Worlds 4th - 5 points, 2023 US Champs 1st - 4 points. Total 9 points.
Amber: 2023 US Champs 3rd - 2 points

Those points are then multiplied by a factor of 15, so Amber has 30 points and Isabeau has 135 points.

We've been discussing all of this in the NQS thread - starting with the following post -

U.S. Figure Skating announces 2023-24 National Qualifying Series (NQS) competitions + Series Finals dates/locations

Thorngren doesn't get a bye? So she has to compete at Easterns? Her NHK Trophy assignment is Nov. 24-26 and Easterns ends on Nov. 5 so I assume she won’t get a bye (in the past, internationals held in Asia would give skaters a bye if their Sectional took place 2 weeks before or after, IIRC)...

www.fsuniverse.net

Specifically -

the selection pool includes the following:

1) Top 5 from the "Calculation of Overall Athlete Performance Data" (for 4CCs the athlete/team must have submitted an Intent to Compete form prior to the Int'l Committee's meeting on Dec 11-12)
2) Top 5 from US Nationals (2023 for 4CCs, 2024 for Worlds)
3) Top 10 from 2023 Worlds
4) All 2022 Olympic Team Members
5) Any athlete/team in the Top 24 of the CURRENT season's World Rankings
6) Any other athlete/team if unanimously approved by the Int'l Committee

So, the Selection Pool for each discipline should be:

Men - 7 - Malinin, Ma, Kapeikis, Torgashev, Pulkinen, Brown, Naumov
Women - 7 or 8 - Levito, Ziegler, Glenn, Andrews, Seo, Thorngren, Lin-Gracey, Shin (currently SWR #21)
Pairs - 6 - Liu/Nagy, Kam/O'Shea, Plazas/Fernandez, Martins/Bedard, Mokhova/Mokhov, Chan/Howe
Ice Dance - 9 - Chock/Bates, Pate/Bye, Brown/Brown, Green/Parsons, McNamara/Spiridonov, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Zingas/Kolesnik, Bratti/Somerville, Hawayek/Baker

I don't think there's any chance that Isabeau would agree to do Four Continents. She got burned out last season. I doubt she wants to, yet again, travel half way around the world for a competition, instead of preparing for Worlds. Especially so soon after Nationals. There's no guarantee that she will make the Worlds team, but I would be shocked if she agreed to do Four Continents.

I agree about Isabeau probably passing on 4CCs after her experience last year. She is already going to China for the GPF and probably won't want to make the trip right after Nats.

ETA: The selection criteria include taking into consideration whether athletes have demonstrated the ability to medal at the current ISU World Figure Skating Championships and have requested additional preparation for the current ISU World Figure Skating Championships. That clearly would include Ilia and C&B. This probably also includes Isabeau, since she came in fourth at Worlds last season and has qualified for the GP Final and has a relatively high world ranking. (I'm not saying that she is likely to medal at Worlds. I'm just saying that she probably falls into the category of demonstrating the ability to medal.)

They let Ilia and KniFraz skip a home 4CCs last year to do Art on Ice, so I'm pretty sure that all three of Ilia, ChoBat and Isabeau won't have any pressure to compete at 4CCs this year.

I don't think it's worth traveling half way around the world to compete so soon after Nationals. IMO, they would be better off preparing for Worlds even if Four Continents would have changed what group they were in at Worlds.

We're going to have to agree to disagree on this. I think, especially for the ones who aren't named to the Worlds team, they absolutely WILL want to go to 4CCs. It isn't just about the SP group they're in at Worlds (though that will be a consideration, for sure), but also about being in the Top 24 at season's end, which guarantees at least 1 GP assignment. With the exception of pairs, which has the smallest fields for each GP, every single skater/team who was ranked in the SB and WS Top 24 got 2 GP assignments straight out of the gate. We've all seen how scores rise as the season progresses and no one would be foolish enough to pass on one last opportunity to improve their SB (Amber is currently 22 on the SB), nor would they pass up those crucial ISU Championships points added to their WS.

 

[Allskate]

I think, especially for the ones who aren't named to the Worlds team, they absolutely WILL want to go to 4CCs

If they aren't named to the Worlds team, ITA. But, I was responding to your comment that said, "Presuming one of Lindsay, Amber or Ava Marie makes the Worlds team, they're going to need the points from 4CC to get into the penultimate group for the SP at Worlds." My point is that I don't think it's worth it to try to immediately travel more - half way around the world to a very different time zone -- and do well under those circumstances just to try to get into a better group at Worlds. I think they would be better off preparing for Worlds. But, hopefully, the skaters and their teams and USFS have a decent understanding of the pros and cons. (I'm not confident of that. I think Isabeau needed more of a break last year and should not have gone to 4CC even though it was in the U.S. and it wasn't as close to Nationals as this year.)

 

[kwanfan1818]

If I've done the math correctly on the WS points, Levito needs to finish 6th or higher at GPF in order to remain in the final group for Worlds, even if the Mihara and Watanabe join Sakamoto on the Japanese Worlds team, Haien Lee and Yelim Kim are on the Korean Worlds team, with Pinzarrone and Gubanova competing in Montreal, and they all end up on the podium at 4C's or Euros. Neither Yoshida nor Sumiyoshi can catch her mathematically.

ETA: If they're going, it might be better to go to 4C's directly off of Nationals than to have a week of waiting in between, where they can't really get in a full week of training before they're on the road again.

 

[Karen-W]

If they aren't named to the Worlds team, ITA. But, I was responding to your comment that said, "Presuming one of Lindsay, Amber or Ava Marie makes the Worlds team, they're going to need the points from 4CC to get into the penultimate group for the SP at Worlds." My point is that I don't think it's worth it to try to immediately travel more - half way around the world to a very different time zone -- and do well under those circumstances just to try to get into a better group at Worlds. I think they would be better off preparing for Worlds. But, hopefully, the skaters and their teams and USFS have a decent understanding of the pros and cons. (I'm not confident of that. I think Isabeau needed more of a break last year and should not have gone to 4CC even though it was in the U.S. and it wasn't as close to Nationals as this year.)

Oh, Isabeau had no need to do 4CCs last year, definitely.

I think it's a different situation for these three, though. There will be plenty of time for Worlds prep with a good 7 weeks after 4CCs to Worlds.

I just can't see any of these women, apart from Isabeau, banking on the notion of making the Worlds team. They're going to take this opportunity and run with it, even if the turnaround from Nats is really tight.

 

[skatingguy]

If I've done the math correctly on the WS points, Levito needs to finish 6th or higher at GPF in order to remain in the final group for Worlds, even if the Mihara and Watanabe join Sakamoto on the Japanese Worlds team, Haien Lee and Yelim Kim are on the Korean Worlds team, with Pinzarrone and Gubanova competing in Montreal, and they all end up on the podium at 4C's or Euros. Neither Yoshida nor Sumiyoshi can catch her mathematically.

ETA: If they're going, it might be better to go to 4C's directly off of Nationals than to have a week of waiting in between, where they can't really get in a full week of training before they're on the road again.

I really hope she doesn't find a way to finish lower than 6th.

 

[kwanfan1818]

She needs to finish.

 

[kwanfan1818]

(With hospitals in Beijing overwhelmed by respiratory illness impacting children, who knows what kinds of protocols they may put in place for foreigners to enter and to compete in China.)