U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

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Willin said:
@Frida80 But the point isn't that they think she'll get on the podium, the point is that she's someone they can trust to have a respectable finish. She's someone that they think can hit even if everyone else is bombing. I'm sure they know that she (or any US lady) would need a ton of other skaters to falter for a US lady to reach the podium. Ashley is the one US lady that they can trust most to take advantage of that opportunity should it arise.
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Honestly, I think in business terms. A stable performer is good for the team event. But when the FS comes, NBC will broadcast the top two Americans briefly and then the podium. In the end, just like all sports we lose in, the ladies will be overlooked by the American crowd, forgotten by the bulk of Americans, and we will all go back to normal. A stable lady won’t be as engaging to audiences if she’s not winning without something else to keep viewers interested. A better reason to bring a skater is because she A. Is a dynamic and exciting skater (which Ashley is!) B. Has a great story that make people root for her or C. Has a ton of potential and the potential to make the podium next time with some experience (Gracie 2014.)

Ashley may want a podium finish and should strive towards it. But if USFS is just setting themselves up for disappointment if they as a whole believe she can get it. In fact, I don’t think they do believe it. Everything seems to point to them focusing on Nathan, while ladies has become of far less interest this year.
 
AngieNikodinovLove said:
I still feel Wags has a good deal of clout with USFSA.

It is once again because of her (and also Karen) that USA can send 3 ladies yet again to The Olys. It wasnt because of Mariah.

Im still feeling Ash and Mirai for Olys, and the better of Karen or Bradie at Nats. (It will also be interesting to see who fares better at SA among Karen and Bradie.)
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Breaking news...three spots are due to Karen. If Karen had preformed like Ashley we wouldn't have three spots. Ashley was good enough to earn two spots, she needed help from someone skating better to get 3. Even Ashley indicated Karen pulled out what was needed for that 3rd spot. So using the "because of her" logic would seem to indicate Karen should get a spot regardless of this year :)
 
Or 7th and 8th.

Regarding body of work, the underlying and unspoken factor in 2014 was that Ashley was still on an upwards trajectory.

I don't think anyone believes that to be the case anymore. Even if she gets back to or surpasses her level in 2016, that level has been eclipsed by at least two Japanese and possibly two additional Russians, not to mention at least one Canadian and the return of Carolina Kostner.

So even if Ashley does her absolute best at the Olympics, her placement is going to be ...not even top 5 potentially depending on how others do.

I think the US media would be much more accepting of someone like Mirai or a newcomer doing their best and finishing 6th, 7th or 8th, then they would be of Ashley doing her best and finishing so much lower than she had in the recent past.

Additionally, at a certain point USFS really has to take a look at the much bigger picture and consider what choosing someone based on their body of work does to up and coming skaters.

Over time, it becomes a morale issue. There has to be an exceptionally good reason for them to deviate from Nationals results and select someone based on body of work. The body of work has to be extremely compelling, the Nationals performance has to be extremely out of character and the stakes, such as in team competition, have to be extremely high.

If all three of those factors aren't met, I say they shouldn't do it because the harm to morale of other skaters and the disincentivization of competing well is too great.
 
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Carolla5501 said:
Breaking news...three spots are due to Karen. If Karen had preformed like Ashley we wouldn't have three spots. Ashley was good enough to earn two spots, she needed help from someone skating better to get 3. Even Ashley indicated Karen pulled out what was needed for that 3rd spot. So using the "because of her" logic would seem to indicate Karen should get a spot regardless of this year :)
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Where did you NOT see (AND KAREN). Jeesh, read! Leave the drama tonight to Atlanta Housewives PLEASE!

And ASH, it needs to add up to 13, and Mariah didn't bust a move.

And also Karen is underperforming the most so far this season IMO between the 3 (Ash, Mirai and Karen).
 
I agree. Ashley’s Worlds medal was two seasons ago. Neither she nor anyone else is so far ahead of the pack NOW that they should be a shoo-in if they don’t perform at Nationals (or 4CCs, if that should become a factor... I’ve always favored using it as a skate off for Worlds but not so sure for the Olys, due to the timing).
 
Coco said:
Or 7th and 8th.

Regarding body of work, the underlying and unspoken factor in 2014 was that Ashley was still on an upwards trajectory.

I don't think anyone believes that to be the case anymore. Even if she gets back to or surpasses her level in 2016, that level has been eclipsed by at least two Japanese and possibly two additional Russians, not to mention at least one Canadian and the return of Carolina Kostner.

So even if Ashley does her absolute best at the Olympics, her placement is going to be ...not even top 5 potentially depending on how others do.

I think the US media would be much more accepting of someone like Mirai or a newcomer doing their best and finishing 6th, 7th or 8th, then they would be of Ashley doing her best and finishing so much lower than she had in the recent past.

Additionally, at a certain point USFS really has to take a look at the much bigger picture and consider what choosing someone based on their body of work does to up and coming skaters.

Over time, it becomes a morale issue. There has to be an exceptionally good reason for them to deviate from Nationals results and select someone based on body of work. The body of work has to be extremely compelling, the Nationals performance has to be extremely out of character and the stakes, such as in team competition, have to be extremely high.

If all three of those factors aren't met, I say they shouldn't do it because the harm to morale of other skaters and the disincentivization of competing well is too great.
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I think the bottom line here is that the US Ladies have reached a new bottom!
Is there anyone who is skating consistently well?
Karen skates beautifully....except when she doesn't which is more often than not.
Mirai could skate beautifully - except her 3A has seemed to put an even harsher light on her UR's. And she doesn't have that IT factor out on the ice.
Ashley has the UR problems, and last season was a mess. But, she can sell the hell out of a program. Had she come out of the gate and won her GP....then she would have been starting to make a case for herself.
Mariah Bell............on paper, she should be fabulous........but she doesn't stand up.
Courtney Hicks is good, but not great....but she should have been.

I cannot imagine that either a competitive Gracie or Polina will show up at Nationals. And I hope Gracie does not.........I can't imagine that in just a couple of months she will have been able to address and overcome the issues that crippled her soul.

So, that leaves us, exactly where? Nowhere.

As if that were not bleak enough, there are 1,000 Russians, 750 Japanese, and two Canadians who are most likely going to out skate anything our Ladies can put out on the ice.

I don't see how the Group Medals have anything to do with it. I can't see that any of our Ladies will add much to the conversation. The Shibs and Nathan can....but not Pairs or Ladies. So, where does that leave Team USA..........(I could be totally wrong on this...........given that I don't know how the teams are put together, and how they are scored as a group. And, frankly, I do not think the Team Event is Olympic Worthy.)

I think I am a little depressed about the entire thing. I need to find a cocktail!
 
Isn't is strange how 2016 Worlds was not that long ago, just 1.5 years, yet seems sooo long ago?

I think Ashley can medal at the Olympics, IF she hits SA, makes it to the GPF, skates well there and regains her Nationals crown. Then, she has to make sure that her planned jumps are rotated, her spins get LV 4 and she sells the hell out of Satine one last time.
 
AngieNikodinovLove said:
Where did you NOT see (AND KAREN). Jeesh, read! Leave the drama tonight to Atlanta Housewives PLEASE!

And ASH, it needs to add up to 13, and Mariah didn't bust a move.

And also Karen is underperforming the most so far this season IMO between the 3 (Ash, Mirai and Karen).
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you didn't like the fact that I pointed out that Ashley didn't deserve a spot just because she got seventh last year? LOL

I don't think I am the one with the drama issue. I didn't feel the need to scream at anyone
 
Ashley was top 5 two years in a row before the last Olympic year, plus she was a gpf medalist in 2014. Her body of work was very very good.
This year I don't think any lady has done enough body of work to gurantee a spot
 
Maybe we should take a deep breath and get out of the habit and tendency of over-indulging in over-criticism of U.S. ladies. It almost seems like a sad addiction in here. Sure there's lots to critique, but perhaps more focus on trying to not have over-expectations might be a good idea. There are a lot of talented ladies in the U.S., and if they find their mojo, that will be a good thing and a nice bonus. But breathe. ;) If what we desire and hope for and keep our fingers-crossed for our fave U.S. ladies doesn't happen, there is life after figure skating. :) What will be, will be.

If we must rewrite 2014 ad nauseam: Gracie Gold was the favorite and US fed was determined to see Gracie win U.S. Nationals that season, despite Ashley Wagner pretty much having carried U.S. ladies discipline since 2012, and competing in back-to-back GPF competitions, winning bronze. There was no way Ashley was not going to make the 2014 Olympic team, and US fed hinted at that fact in advance. However, they also did not seem eager for Ashley to get too close to Gracie in the scoring. Unfortunately, Ashley helped them out by making a small jump error in the sp. But there was still no reason for Ash to be downgraded so heavily to place behind a newbie out of juniors in Polina Edmunds.

The dark horse was of course, Mirai Nagasu, who was skating without a coach. It was Mirai who upset U.S. fed's applecart with how well she skated. If it had been up to some people in U.S. fed, Mirai's career would have been over after her previous year's disaster at U.S. Nationals. But much like Ashley after 2010 Nationals, Mirai had decided she was not done yet with her competitive career. Mirai skated her heart out. Polina was the gifted up-and-comer. Gracie was the uber-talented favorite newly minted under the expertise of Frank & Lori. Ashley was the veteran and the defending National champion with international experience and recognition. Mirai was the scapegoat. And somehow to this point, Mirai can't seem to shake skating like she has to prove something outside of just being herself, and believing in her own power.


The new Iced Coffee podcast hosted by @glorybox64 and friend, provides some interesting reflections on Karen and Mirai at their Grand Prixs this season:
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/coffee-and-bars
https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/threads/new-figure-skating-podcast-iced-coffee.102062/

I agree with @glorybox64's observations: Why the misstelps with Karen and her team not coming up with better ideas for her for the biggest season in her skating career? I feel that Karen should have continued with the success of her last year's sp and then focused on finding an Olympic season fp to match her gorgeous On Golden Pond sp. Her training time could have been more efficiently spent that way. She also needs some help with working out tempering the power on her opening triple lutz combo in order to consistently land both jumps; fixing her technique there seems like it should be a priority. On the bright side, Karen is extremely talented, and she just needs the right focus and well-paced attention to detail to make it all SING (as Dick Button would say ;)). Karen needs to stop rushing, slow down a bit and start believing in her own power.

I also agree with @glorybox64's assessment of Mirai's performances so far this season. What an extremely talented young lady. She has everything to bring it home! But will she? For Mirai, it's about not forgetting about selling her programs. So while Mirai's triple-axel is cool, she needs to not allow her focus on the 3-axel to mess with her mind and her other jumps, and her performance qualities.

Hopefully Ashley gains some inspiration and brings it. Karen and Mirai have it all and could be highly competitive, if ... Mariah Mariah, they call the wind Mariah ... Courtney came on like a runaway train, and she made strides in attempting to fiercely rise like a Phoenix. Now, she's exploring her aesthetic side with some wonderful programs this season, but when it comes down to it, does she believe she's the best? Amber Glenn should believe she's the best, but ... :( Are Bradie and Starr the stars of the future? :drama: Ladies is not my thing anymore, so I can sit back and be calm and chill about whatever happens. Watching the men and ice dance for me is more exciting and nail-biting. And I enjoy watching pairs always.
 
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olympic said:
Actually if Karen had performed like Ashley, Ashley would have risen 1 place to 6th
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Yes, but - a sub-par Chen could have easily placed below 7th, especially if she had bombed the SP.

Bottom line: BOTH skaters did what they needed to do to get that particular job done.
 
I don't think people are getting the point I (and people in the know) are making about Ashley being a lock for the team.

It has nothing to do with medal potential - it has to do with potential not to be a disaster. Ashley may not be at the top of her game still, but she's consistently decent. Since Sochi, the lowest placement Ashley's gotten at any of her 12 international competitions in the last Olympic Cycle (all GPs/GPFs/Worlds) is 7th, and her average placement at competitions is 3.41. To compare (Senior Competitions in this Olympic Cycle):

-Ashley (4 Competitions): Avg. 3.41, Med. 3, Range 1st-7th
-Courtney (11 Competitions): Avg. 4.27, Med. 4, Range 2nd-9th
-Karen (13 Competitions): Avg. 6, Med. 5, Range 3rd-12th
-Mariah (14 Competitions): Avg. 6.35, Med. 7, Range 2nd-13th
-Mirai (16 Competitions): Avg 4.63, Med. 4.5, Range 1st-10th
-Polina (8 Competitions): Avg. 5.63, Med. 5, Range 1st-13th

(On another note, I'm actually pretty surprised that Courtney's the closest as far as avg and median goes here! Also that she's got the second best worst placement of the US ladies)

For last season and this one so far (What really counts for selection):
-Ashley (12 Competitions): Avg. 4.25, Med. 4.5, Range 1st-7th
-Courtney (5 Competitions): Avg. 5.2, Med. 4, Range 3rd-9th
-Karen (8 Competitions): Avg. 6.125, Med. 6.5, Range 3rd-12th
-Mariah (8 Competitions): Avg. 5.4, Med. 5, Range 2nd-12th
-Mirai (8 Competitions): Avg 4.5, Med. 3.5, Range 1st-9th
-Polina (1 Competition): Avg. 13, Med. 13, Range 13th

Based on this, it looks like Mirai and Mariah are outperforming her cycle average/median this/last season (ie. recent improvement). Karen is doing slightly worse on average and worse on median. Courtney is worse on average but the same on median (due to small sample size). Ashley is worse on all measures, but still has the highest average placement, is 3rd on her median placement, and still has the best worst finish and the best best finish (well, tied with Mirai). That's what I mean - yeah, her trajectory is downwards, but it's still right up there in the top 3 of all ladies in all these measures.
I can try to graph all this and redo the calculations after the GP, but it doesn't change the fact that when Ashley's done poorly, she's done a lot less poorly than the other US ladies. And as the averages and medians suggest, she does poorly less often.
 
But the point you're not getting ;) is that the expectations for her will be far different then the expectations for pretty much anybody else.

So in terms of how the public will perceive the US ladies to have competed at the Olympics, sending Ashley as US #1, if she's not at her absolute best, is a risky proposition. And sending her over someone young is also risky.

Imagine Bradie wins (and has beaten Ashley at SA), followed by Mirai, with Ashley and Karen in a virtual tie for a distant 3rd.

What's the argument for denying Karen her opportunity?
 
Whatever happens at 2018 Nationals, I just hope the rankings are such where most people would agree with it and the committee just goes with the top 3. I can't deal with another 2014-like :argue: and negative attention from those outside the fandom. If another controversial selection is made, this sport will have two Olympic seasons worth of image issues.
 
@Coco Based on marketing, I think they're not pushing any US lady at US #1. That's why I don't get the point that the expectations for Ashley will be different or more than any other lady. Like I said, they're picking her for consistency, not for winning potential or future potential (they'll send one of the less consistent ladies for podium/future potential, hoping they're going to have a "good competition" at the Olympics). They're sending her because if the other two ladies we send bomb, they can still have a likely top-10 finish from Ashley to talk about.

From what I've seen, she is getting the most sponsorships and stuff, but they're not giving her the "winner's edit" as some call it. She's getting the generic skater edit and the generic skater commercials and the generic skater sponsorships. Karen's getting a good amount of attention in ads - particularly for Nationals. The only athlete USFSA is pushing as a potential champion or potential medalist at this point is Nathan Chen. Everyone else has generic ads.

I think the argument for denying Karen a spot would be that she's been very inconsistent over the past couple of seasons (and has the lowest best finish). But, that being said, I think that if she skates well at Nationals and gets on the podium there, she'll be the one USFS markets as the top US Lady and will be the one USFS will expect to have podium potential on a good day. Between that podium potential and the fact that she could be a star of the next Olympic cycle for USFS, I think she should be sent.
 
Karen has really been an enigma the past year. She didn't skate well in any competition last season.. except at the two competitions that counted most. And despite her inconsistency, she immediately becomes judges' pet when she delivers, as seen at both Nationals and Worlds. I'm not discrediting Karen's skating quality -- I am a big fan of her skating -- but I found it a bit bizarre that she was getting the 'nod' from the judges when she finally skates well, given her history of inconsistency. She has the 'it' factor more than any U.S. lady..but still. Given this history, I guess Karen is sure podium material if she skates decently at Nationals.

Ashley..I don't want to be a downer. But although I was thrilled for her when she won a silver medal in 2016, I do admit it was a gift and a result of home crowd favoritism. In most countries, the podium would have been Evgenia, Anna, and Satoko. Ashley would have been 4th, maybe 5th. Both Karen and Mirai have higher scoring potential, IMO, if they go clean. I also don't approve of skaters recycling BOTH programs... :shuffle: but that's besides the point.
 
Frida80 said:
Honestly, I think in business terms. A stable performer is good for the team event. But when the FS comes, NBC will broadcast the top two Americans briefly and then the podium. In the end, just like all sports we lose in, the ladies will be overlooked by the American crowd, forgotten by the bulk of Americans, and we will all go back to normal. A stable lady won’t be as engaging to audiences if she’s not winning without something else to keep viewers interested.
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Given the schedule as laid out at the moment for February 23rd, don't be surprised if the NBC main network opts to not show chunks of the women's long program in favour of the downhill portion of the women's alpine combined skiing event featuring Mikaela Shiffrin and Lindsey Vonn.
 
Willin said:
I can try to graph all this and redo the calculations after the GP, but it doesn't change the fact that when Ashley's done poorly, she's done a lot less poorly than the other US ladies. And as the averages and medians suggest, she does poorly less often.
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Thanks for those statistics, which are always helpful. Ashley's stats may also have something to do with her overall veteran status and rep internationally, which holds her in fairly decent stead with the judges. Ashley's past success is still worthy of respect. And in general, as the stats show, she's not performed horribly, albeit her results last season were not as great as anticipated after she'd broken U.S. ladies podium drought at 2016 Worlds.
 
Seerek said:
Given the schedule as laid out at the moment for February 23rd, don't be surprised if the NBC main network opts to not show chunks of the women's long program in favour of the downhill portion of the women's alpine combined skiing event featuring Mikaela Shiffrin and Lindsey Vonn.
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Sounds about right. No one knows Zhenia, so they don’t care if she wins or not. They do exactly like they are now with these ridiculously short NBC recaps and show only a few of the skaters and the top two Americans. Unless, by some miracle some lady becomes a contender between now and then.
 
^^ Sounds like what might happen. But there will still also be some hyping of the young Russian ladies phenom in the no-nothing U.S. mainstream media, just like what happened in 2014 with Lipnitskaya.

shady82 said:
... Ashley would have been 4th, maybe 5th...
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Ashley's placement at Worlds 2016 seemed partly dependent on whether Gracie had delivered. If Gracie had delivered and maintained her podium spot (even if not the top spot), Ashley would likely not have made the podium, unless Pogo had come down with splat-itis on that occasion! Still, let us please also give Ashley some credit and stop disrespecting the effort, resolve and talent it took for Ash to get to the point of even having the opportunity to skate well enough in her home country and finally break through to get on that Worlds podium. And this feat Ashley was able to accomplish even with the specter of U.S. ladies long podium drought hanging over her head, after Gracie had slightly faltered in the fp.

All of the dissing and naysaying afterward about Ashley winning silver is petty overkill IMO. I felt Ashley should have been in 3rd after the 2016 Worlds sp because she'd skated clean while Medvedeva fell. But as usual, Med's shortcomings are often overlooked by the judges who favor her fierce competitiveness and her normally consistent rotational abilities. Med's inordinately high PCS should be looked at askance moreso than the indulging in petty disregard for Ashley.
 
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SB Scores:

196.70 Bradie Tennell
194.40 Mirai Nagasu
188.56 Mariah Bell
183.94 Ashley Wagner
182.32 Karen Chen

Different events. Different callers. But still, it's an argument for someone else if you are looking for one. Ashley did medal in Canada. She looked ready, and she was. (Ashley is always ready early). But we don't really think she would have medaled with the same performance if she had been the one sent to Rostelecom or NHK. Do we? Looking forward to SA. All three U.S. ladies have something to show there.
 
Willin said:
@Coco

I think that if [Karen] skates well at Nationals and gets on the podium there, she'll be the one USFS markets as the top US Lady and will be the one USFS will expect to have podium potential on a good day. Between that podium potential and the fact that she could be a star of the next Olympic cycle for USFS, I think she should be sent.
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I hope Karen skates well enough to go too, but at the point it’s hard to see her being sent as US no. 1. She is just way too high risk. Unless Karen suddenly turns her season around, if Ashley makes it to the Olympics at all, she’s earned the right to go as US no. 1 and that is how the media and the international judges will see her, IMO.

Karen is wonderful but very frustrating. It is like being a Sasha fan all over again, but times 10. Or 100. If she goes, it will be as the brilliant but inconsistent youngster who represents the future.
 
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