U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Not even that. She's too young to bring alcoholic beverages back into the United States.

Mama Edmunds can put them in her hand luggage.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Has reigning national champ, and fourth at last year's worlds, Karen Chen fallen off the face of the planet

As for Polina at TB, she simply needs to show that she's on the upswing and is doing better then she did at her last outing. She needs to keep showing improvements. If she can then focus on nationals, skate great there and place top 3 I don't see why she should be counted out. Mirai is still a wild toss up and Karen is currently treading downwards (SA will be VERY crucial for her)

With Gracie away for the time being, I am wondering now if the attention that was almost entirely on her, has been refocussed on Karen. As the defending national champion, she must be feeling tremendous pressure to live up to that title

 

[Willin]

@NAOTMAA I don't think there's any chance that Polina makes the Olympic team if she's just showing improvements, even if she's Top 3 at Nationals. Ashley, Mirai, Karen, and Courtney have all put out somewhat good skates. Mariah hasn't been clean, but also hasn't been a total disaster. Bradie's looked good so far (we'll see at Skate America). That's six right there I'd say USFSA would pick ahead of her, if only because they're already ready. I'm sure USFS agrees that you'd rather take someone that's been ready for the Olympic season as opposed to someone who's still getting ready.

I bet (I hope) Polina knows this and is either working her butt off right now or has decided to compete at her hometown Nationals with the expectation of having her friends watch her compete one last time, not a trip to the Olympics.

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

The competition is in Grenoble. C'est la vie!

Grenoble not so bad. B&B in French Alps. Worse ways to spend a few days.

 

[Sylvia]

Coming up this week is the 3 Sectionals. The most competitive segment is probably senior ladies. Some speculation about potential qualifiers based on the current rosters compiled by Sylvia:

Eastern: Chiera, Ma, Serafini, ??
Midwestern: Lin, McIsaac, Miller, Rydberg
Pacific: Andrews, Hong, Le, Nguyen

I'd love to see Emily Chan qualify in Mids. Love her beautiful presentation.

Emily hasn't competed much this year (AFAIK) but at least she had the 6th highest total score from Regionals. The top 6 scorers were:
Brynne McIsaac 171.00 (SW1; Mids)
Maxine Marie Bautista 166.33 (UGL1; Mids)
Megan Wessenberg 150.37 (NE1; Easterns)
Diana Zhu 150.07 (UGL2; Mids)
Vivian Le 148.55 (SWP1; Pacifics)
Emily Chan 146.05 (SW2; Mids)

* = listed in USFS' International Selectional Pool; internationals are noted below, along with Regionals Byes

E (15): Jordan Bauth, Haley Beavers, Franchesca Chiera* (Bye), Kjerstyn Hall, Morgan Leighow, Kristina Levitina, Emmy Ma* (Bye; 2 JGP, 1 bronze), Katie McBeath, Grace Moyer, Heidi Munger, Paulina Pawlak, Rebecca Peng, Olivia Serafini, Megan Wessenberg* (Bye but elected to compete; WD from CS Autumn Classic), Camilla Zhang

M (14): Maxine M Bautista, Julia Budnick, Emily Chan, Avery Kurtz*, Ashley Lin* (Bye; 1 JGP), Brynne McIsaac, Lydia Menscher, Hannah Miller*, Taylor Morris, Cristina Rackley, Lyndsay Ream, Alexandra Rogers, Paige Rydberg* (Bye; CS USIC), Diana Zhu

P (16): Starr Andrews* (Bye; 1 JGP), Grace Cohen, Alexis Gagnon, Vanna Giang, Julie M Fennell, Tessa Hong* (Bye; 1 JGP), Courtney Kirschke, Emma Krinsky, Vivian Le*, Kaitlyn Nguyen* (Bye; 2 JGP), Nina Ouellette*, Elena Pulkinen, Livvy Shilling* (Bye; CS Autumn Classic), Julie Suzuki, Sierra Venetta, Alice Yang

ETA:

Competed as a senior internationally before this year: Miller, Chan, Chiera
Competed on JGP in 2016 and/or 2015: McIsaac, Ouellette, Le, Rydberg, Chan, Peng
Competed at past Youth Olympic Games -- Bauth in 2012 and Giang in 2016
Competed as a junior internationally (not JGP or YOG) before: Beavers, Yang, Serafini
Competed as a senior nationally before but not internationally: McBeath, Munger, Gagnon, Pulkinen

 

[RD]

Still early, but I think as a preliminary assessment, Wagner, Chen and Nagasu appear to be the front-runners for the US Oly Team. Jury will be out on Wagner and Chen as SA approaches; and Nagasu will have a question mark on her at Nationals as she has fallen short there several times (will she finally put it together when it counts?).

But...no one else has stepped up or has the history those three have if it was to come close. Hicks, sorry but not happening. Edmunds, we'll see in France but she's still coming back from injury.

 

[Willin]

I think Hicks has a shot. A very outside shot, but certainly a shot. She's matched Mirai's best GP finish this season and beat Karen at Skate Canada. Certainly to make it she'll need Mirai, Karen, and/or Ashley to falter while she skates clean, which seems unlikely, but its not impossible, so I'm not counting her out.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Mama Edmunds can put them in her hand luggage.

One in each skate.

 

[NAOTMAA]

@NAOTMAA I don't think there's any chance that Polina makes the Olympic team if she's just showing improvements, even if she's Top 3 at Nationals. Ashley, Mirai, Karen, and Courtney have all put out somewhat good skates. Mariah hasn't been clean, but also hasn't been a total disaster. Bradie's looked good so far (we'll see at Skate America). That's six right there I'd say USFSA would pick ahead of her, if only because they're already ready. I'm sure USFS agrees that you'd rather take someone that's been ready for the Olympic season as opposed to someone who's still getting ready.

I bet (I hope) Polina knows this and is either working her butt off right now or has decided to compete at her hometown Nationals with the expectation of having her friends watch her compete one last time, not a trip to the Olympics.

How exactly is "somewhat good skates" or "hasn't been clean, but also hasn't been a total disaster" good enough Are the standards for the American ladies that low Surely descriptions like that would indicate that while we have some front runners nothing is shut and closed and its still open for possibly somebody else if the situation shows itself.

As for the girls you mentioned...
1. Courtney Hicks always does better at the GP then at nationals, she always bombs there. And even if she has improved in the artistry area I have yet to see evidence that the USFSA is really behind her. They could have given her SA since she had only 1 GP assignment but passed her over.
2. Mirai, has every season shown to be a roller coaster of good and bad at the GP. She does poor the first event and much better the second and heads into nationals with optimism only to usually chock when the chips are really down. So far the script is the same.
3. Karen Chen is so prepared this season she dumped her LP and started from scratch. And regardless of what program she's skating to she's been nothing but lackluster. It's been nothing but downhill since last year's break though and expectations have been high
4. Ashley has the most consistent nationals record. But she seems so determined to not repeat 2014 it could end up happening regardless of all her willpower and determination. She was inconsistent in 2010 so who knows perhaps the Olympic season nationals isn't her friend. And last season and this season so far she hasn't exactly lit the ice on fire.
5. Mariah is flat out inconsistent no matter where she is. She had a great SA last year and a great LP at last nationals but after that, what?
6. Bradie has definitely shown to be the most ready so far this season. SA will definitely be a test for her and the USFSA making her the host pick shows their interested in her. If anything she has the most going for her because she has the most clean slate.

So far this season all of these girls, except perhaps Bradie, have shown they are anything but "already ready" for Olympic competition. Unless they change the story line they usually follow at nationals then its wide open. And none of them here fit the "body of work" rule so its likely top 3 to go.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

How exactly is "somewhat good skates" or "hasn't been clean, but also hasn't been a total disaster" good enough Are the standards for the American ladies that low Surely descriptions like that would indicate that while we have some front runners nothing is shut and closed and its still open for possibly somebody else if the situation shows itself.

As for the girls you mentioned...
1. Courtney Hicks always does better at the GP then at nationals, she always bombs there. And even if she has improved in the artistry area I have yet to see evidence that the USFSA is really behind her. They could have given her SA since she had only 1 GP assignment but passed her over.
2. Mirai, has every season shown to be a roller coaster of good and bad at the GP. She does poor the first event and much better the second and heads into nationals with optimism only to usually chock when the chips are really down. So far the script is the same.
3. Karen Chen is so prepared this season she dumped her LP and started from scratch. And regardless of what program she's skating to she's been nothing but lackluster. It's been nothing but downhill since last year's break though and expectations have been high
4. Ashley has the most consistent nationals record. But she seems so determined to not repeat 2014 it could end up happening regardless of all her willpower and determination. She was inconsistent in 2010 so who knows perhaps the Olympic season nationals isn't her friend. And last season and this season so far she hasn't exactly lit the ice on fire.
5. Mariah is flat out inconsistent no matter where she is. She had a great SA last year and a great LP at last nationals but after that, what?
6. Bradie has definitely shown to be the most ready so far this season. SA will definitely be a test for her and the USFSA making her the host pick shows their interested in her. If anything she has the most going for her because she has the most clean slate.

So far this season all of these girls, except perhaps Bradie, have shown they are anything but "already ready" for Olympic competition. Unless they change the story line they usually follow at nationals then its wide open. And none of them here fit the "body of work" rule so its likely top 3 to go.

Agreed.

So far Wagner is the only US lady to have medalled at the Grand Prix Series. A medal at Skate America seems likely. Although she is up against Tsurskaya, Leonova, Daleman and Tennell in Lake Placid.

I still don't think skating to old material is doing Ashley any favours. To me, all both programs are highlighting so far are her weaknesses.

 

[Willin]

@NAOTMAA I'm not saying the other ladies have been amazing, just that they're way ahead of where Polina is. They look as ready (or not ready) as the US ladies usually do in the fall. Based on the criteria:
Tier 1
- 2018 U.S. Figure Skating Championships - N/A
- 2017 ISU Grand Prix Final - N/A
- 2017 ISU World Figure Skating Championships - Karen 4th, Ashley 7th, Mariah 12th

Tier 2
- 2017 Grand Prix Series Competitions - Ashley (SC 3rd), Courtney (SC 4th), Karen (SC 7th), Mirai (RC 9th, NHK 4th), Mariah (RC 6th, NHK 9th)
- 2017 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships - Karen 12th, Mirai 3rd, Mariah 6th

Tier 3
- 2017 Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions - Mirai 2nd, Karen 3rd, Bradie 4th, Courtney 4th, Mariah 5th, Polina 13th
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships - Karen 1st, Ashley 2nd, Mariah 3rd, Mirai 4th, Bradie 9th, Courtney 12th
- 2017 World Junior Figure Skating Championships - Bradie 7th
- 2017 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final - N/A

Let's compare the first internationals of this season of these six skaters. Also, let's consider factors other than score (since those vary from competition to competition):

• Ashley (Skate Canada) - 3rd place, 183.94 (61.57/122.37), 5 Fully rotated triples, two 3-3 combos, 0 falls
• Bradie (Lombardia) - 4th place, 196.70 (64.34/132.36), 10 Fully rotated triples, two 3-3 combos, 0 falls
• Courtney (Autumn Classic) - 4th place, 174.16 (59.77/114.39), 8 Fully rotated triples, one 3-3 combo, 2 Falls
• Karen (USIC) - 3rd place, 182.32 (66.18/116.14), 5 Fully rotated triples, two 3-3 combos, 1 Fall
• Mariah (USIC) - 5th place, 168.66 (60.68/107.98), 8 Fully rotated triples, two 3-3 combos, 1 Fall
• Mirai (USIC) - 2nd place, 183.54 (63.81/119.73), 6 Fully rotated triples, one 3-3 combo, 1 Fall
• Polina (Finlandia) - 13th place, 142.20 points (49.62/92.58), 1 Fully rotated triple, no 3-3 combo, 4 falls

Now - even if we go by these (first competitions out as opposed to season bests), Polina is 26.46 points back from the next lowest scoring lady and 41.34 points off the 3rd best score. That's a huge gap to make up by nationals - one I'd think is near impossible for her to make up given the circumstances. (ie. her mistakes didn't look like a one-time meltdown, more bad conditioning or lack of training)

 

[Marco]

The lucky thing for Ashley is that her closest competitors at the national level, Karen and Mirai, also suffer from UR issues. So a strict caller will likely pull all three down and a lenient caller will benefit everyone.

Ashley's tendency to not fall will help her make the team.

 

[Carolla5501]

Still early, but I think as a preliminary assessment, Wagner, Chen and Nagasu appear to be the front-runners for the US Oly Team. Jury will be out on Wagner and Chen as SA approaches; and Nagasu will have a question mark on her at Nationals as she has fallen short there several times (will she finally put it together when it counts?).

But...no one else has stepped up or has the history those three have if it was to come close. Hicks, sorry but not happening. Edmunds, we'll see in France but she's still coming back from injury.

Actually Nagasu has a history of "putting it together" when an Olympic berth is on the line

She's won a medal at the last two Nationals prior to the games. The first time they sent her to the games (where she performed well) and last time they sent Ashley.

Personally if it comes out with Nagasu 3nd and Wagner 4th this year I really hope USFSA doesn't "Gift" Wagner again. Once was plenty!

 

[Loves_Shizuka]

... if Nagasu finishes 3rd and Wagner 4th, again.

 

[RD]

It’ll ultimately depend on how Wagner does at SA and whether she can qualify for GPF, but *so far* I think the argument for her over Nagasu is a bit weaker this time than it was back in 2014.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

It’ll ultimately depend on how Wagner does at SA and whether she can qualify for GPF, but *so far* I think the argument for her over Nagasu is a bit weaker this time than it was back in 2014.

I still feel Wags has a good deal of clout with USFSA.

It is once again because of her (and also Karen) that USA can send 3 ladies yet again to The Olys. It wasnt because of Mariah.

Im still feeling Ash and Mirai for Olys, and the better of Karen or Bradie at Nats. (It will also be interesting to see who fares better at SA among Karen and Bradie.)

 

[Wyliefan]

It’ll ultimately depend on how Wagner does at SA and whether she can qualify for GPF, but *so far* I think the argument for her over Nagasu is a bit weaker this time than it was back in 2014.

Based on what? Ashley has one GP medal so far from this season. You can argue that she backed into it, but still, she has it. Mirai has finished her GPs for the season and got 4th and 9th. I'm not slamming her, I'm just looking at what we have to go on so far.

 

[GullyGirl84]

I feel like the only way for Ashley to "officially" be put on the team over someone else is if she really does very poorly at Nationals is if she were to medal at the Grand Prix final. Or maybe just making the final would be enough, which is still a possibility.

But to be honest, I think she will do just fine at nationals, and that the "body of work" thing won't come into play for anyone-but that people who have had the stronger track records over the last year will be scored most favorably, so as to avoid a 2014 like scenario. Might not be fair, but I think that's what we will realistically see happen. I think Ashley is the "safest" out of the other contenders, but weird things can happen in nationals years for everyone (Karen will also be dealing with being defending champion, which can play head games. Ashley and Mirai also have the experience of what a pre-olympics nationals is like, which the others don't. Though I guess Mariah and Courtney were there in 2014).

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Based on what? Ashley has one GP medal so far from this season. You can argue that she backed into it, but still, she has it. Mirai has finished her GPs for the season and got 4th and 9th. I'm not slamming her, I'm just looking at what we have to go on so far.

Agree with you about Ash. A medal is a medal.

However with Mirai instead of 4th and 9th, it makes more sense (to me) to say 9th and 4th so we can see the improvements.

One good thing about Mirai and Ash is that there aren't many deductions for falls, just usually UR festivals. And you never know when they are gonna happen.

 

[Willin]

Based on what I've heard through the grapevine, Ashley's spot is safe unless she bombs at Nationals and her second GP. USFSA feels like she's the most consistent US lady (as far as not popping and not falling), so she's a safe choice to send. They're also well aware that international judges like her. That is, if they send her, she may be an outside shot for the podium, but they don't expect her to be a splatfest of nerves at the Olympics. And if Ashley skates clean (minus URs), they can expect her to finish quite well.

 

[RD]

To start the 2013-14 season, Wagner was coming off a 5th place Worlds finish, she was defending national champ, she was a GPF medalist. Nagasu really had nothing comparable. Now, I wasn’t all gung-ho about the decision to send Wagner in 2014 - I had mixed feelings about it personally - but I certainly understood it and supported her as a member of Team USA. Turned out to be the right decision anyway...

But now Wagner has got 7th at Worlds, no GPF, and yes she’s got a medal at SC which is why I said it’s dependent on SA (and perhaps GPF should she make it) - Is that *in itself* enough, though, to override a lower placement at Nationals? Or at least as strong a case as before? Personally I don’t really see it, but *again* we’ll need to wait and see how Wagner concludes her 2017 GP run.

 

[Wyliefan]

Agree with you about Ash. A medal is a medal.

However with Mirai instead of 4th and 9th, it makes more sense (to me) to say 9th and 4th so we can see the improvements.

One good thing about Mirai and Ash is that there aren't many deductions for falls, just usually UR festivals. And you never know when they are gonna happen.

You're right, 9th and 4th. I was looking at the Web page the wrong way around.

 

[mag]

To start the 2013-14 season, Wagner was coming off a 5th place Worlds finish, she was defending national champ, she was a GPF medalist. Nagasu really had nothing comparable. Now, I wasn’t all gung-ho about the decision to send Wagner in 2014 - I had mixed feelings about it personally - but I certainly understood it and supported her as a member of Team USA. Turned out to be the right decision anyway...

But now Wagner has got 7th at Worlds, no GPF, and yes she’s got a medal at SC which is why I said it’s dependent on SA (and perhaps GPF should she make it) - Is that *in itself* enough, though, to override a lower placement at Nationals? Or at least as strong a case as before? Personally I don’t really see it, but *again* we’ll need to wait and see how Wagner concludes her 2017 GP run.

Ashely is also now a World Silver Medalist. Something she wasn’t in 2014. I don’t have a horse in this race, but Ashley deserves credit where credit is due.

 

[Frida80]

Based on what I've heard through the grapevine, Ashley's spot is safe unless she bombs at Nationals and her second GP. USFSA feels like she's the most consistent US lady (as far as not popping and not falling), so she's a safe choice to send. They're also well aware that international judges like her. That is, if they send her, she may be an outside shot for the podium, but they don't expect her to be a splatfest of nerves at the Olympics. And if Ashley skates clean (minus URs), they can expect her to finish quite well.

Ashley has an extremely remote chance at the podium. She’s been significantly outscored by several ladies that will be at the Olympics. At best she’s looking at a sixth place finish. The reason why Ashley should be on the team is just for the team event. There’s no harm in hoping for a miracle. But that’s what it would take for Ashley to beat Polina, Carolina, Wakaba, Mai, and either Alina or Kaetlyn.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Ashley has an extremely remote chance at the podium. She’s been significantly outscored by several ladies that will be at the Olympics. At best she’s looking at a sixth place finish. The reason why Ashley should be on the team is just for the team event. There’s no harm in hoping for a miracle. But that’s what it would take for Ashley to beat Polina, Carolina, Wakaba, Mai, and either Alina or Kaetlyn.

LOL, name a US gal that doesn't have a remote chance at the podium.

 

[Frida80]

LOL, name a US gal that doesn't have a remote chance at the podium.

At this point, US ladies should be going to that Olympics for the Olympic experience and a team medal. Nothing wrong with being just an Olympian.

 

[Willin]

@Frida80 But the point isn't that they think she'll get on the podium, the point is that she's someone they can trust to have a respectable finish. She's someone that they think can hit even if everyone else is bombing. I'm sure they know that she (or any US lady) would need a ton of other skaters to falter for a US lady to reach the podium. Ashley is the one US lady that they can trust most to take advantage of that opportunity should it arise.

 

[RD]

Ashely is also now a World Silver Medalist. Something she wasn’t in 2014.

Yes I know. I was looking solely at the past season in both cases - 2016 was two seasons ago, so I didn’t include it. Just like I didn’t factor in her 2012 National title or 4th place finish that year

 

[RD]

At this point, US ladies should be going to that Olympics for the Olympic experience and a team medal. Nothing wrong with being just an Olympian.

Not what Wagner wants though.

 

[mag]

At this point, US ladies should be going to that Olympics for the Olympic experience and a team medal. Nothing wrong with being just an Olympian.

I think all athletes should be going to the Olympics preparing to have a personal best performance. That is, after all, all they have control over. Train to have the skate of your life, get out there and go for everything, then let the chips fall where they may.

ETA: last sentence cut off