U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[Vagabond]

I've been away so long
I may go wrong
And lose my way.

Who will find fame and fortune?

Who will find peace of mind?

And whose dreams will turn to dust?

 

[mag]

Responding back to the last US ladies thread, Frank also coaches Scott Dyer, a Japanese skater whose name I forget, not to mention he works with a ton of other kids in the LA area as well as a few adult skaters. Oh, and between Michelle and Mirai there was this guy named Evan

I am fairly sure if he wanted to retire, he would.

 

[Jarrett]

San Jose is so soon but feels a lifetime away.

 

[Debbie S]

Responding back to the last US ladies thread, Frank also coaches Scott Dyer, a Japanese skater whose name I forget

Daisuke Murakami. I believe he grew up in CA, and competed in the U.S. through Novice level, then switched to representing Japan (I think his parents grew up there?) internationally.

I think coaching Evan to the OGM was the pinnacle of Frank's career, the last item he wanted to accomplish. At this point, I would speculate that he takes on (and keeps) the students he wants and is probably working more for the love of skating and teaching than a desire to rack up medals.

 

[Frau Muller]

Does any US lady stand a chance to make top 5 at the next Olympics? If so, who? Just thinking that there will be 3 Russians, 2 Japanese and at least 2 Canadians standing in the way. Maybe the component scores will help our ladies?

 

[Maximillian]

Does any US lady stand a chance to make top 5 at the next Olympics? If so, who? Just thinking that there will be 3 Russians, 2 Japanese and at least 2 Canadians standing in the way. Maybe the component scores will help our ladies?

Karen Chen just finished 4th at Worlds last year, so I would think that would be a pretty big indicator of what she is capable of. And I really don't think lightening is going to strike twice for the Canadian ladies.

 

[Willin]

Ashley did finish 2nd at Worlds a couple of years ago with the same programs she's doing this year, so I wouldn't count her out. I think a lot of US ladies are capable of getting to the top 5 - IF, and only if, they perform well. At the last two Olympics we had a lady finish 4th.

 

[mag]

Karen Chen just finished 4th at Worlds last year, so I would think that would be a pretty big indicator of what she is capable of. And I really don't think lightening is going to strike twice for the Canadian ladies.

Well I would say that the Canadian women have the same chance of having lightening strike twice as Karen does, if not more. If I was betting, I would say the podium will have some combination of Russia, Canada, and Japan. The remaining Russians, Canadian (not including our third woman who will be lucky to make the free!) Japanese, and Karen will fill out the remaining 8. Carolina could slip into the top eight, but most likely she will be 9 or 10 with one of the other American women.

Now that I have written that, I am sure I have forgotten someone!

 

[Simone411]

Does any US lady stand a chance to make top 5 at the next Olympics? If so, who? Just thinking that there will be 3 Russians, 2 Japanese and at least 2 Canadians standing in the way. Maybe the component scores will help our ladies?

This is my answer to your question. I would definitely say that a few of the US Ladies may have a chance at that podium. One thing to remember is there have been several figure skaters throughout the years that were "favored" to win Gold or be on the podium, but it didn't go quite as planned. The reason for that is that no one on this earth is perfect all the time.

I would say that Ashley Wagner, Karen Chen, Polina Edmunds or even Mirai Nagasu could have a good chance because nothing is impossible just like Ashley being a Worlds Silver Medalist.

 

[Maximillian]

At this point, I think there is only one spot available on the podium for a non-Russian. I would expect that Medvedeva and Zagitova will be taking two places. I would expect a Japanese lady to take the other spot...the more erratic U.S. and Canadian ladies are more of a long shot, IMO.

 

[DimaToe]

How I'd see it (very early) in the season

Gold and Silver-Between Medvedeva and Zagitova, I'd throw Higuchi in there but she's so inconsistent.

Bronze-Osmond, Honda, or Higuchi

4th and 5th- Daleman, and whoever decides to be the top U.S. woman by the time the Olympics roll around. I think the peak for the U.S. women is 4th place. I believe that the Canadians have more of an advantage because they fully rotate those triples more often.

 

[Maximillian]

But they also implode a lot...

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Does any US lady stand a chance to make top 5 at the next Olympics? If so, who? Just thinking that there will be 3 Russians, 2 Japanese and at least 2 Canadians standing in the way. Maybe the component scores will help our ladies?

Ummmmm and an Italian

 

[olympic]

I agree w/ the assessment that the podium will be Medvedeva, Zagitova and a lady from JPN. I think the big spoiler will be Osmond.

I don't think Kostner is a factor for a podium placement. I just don't.

And I would say the US ladies are more erratic than the Canadian ladies right now (Osmond and Daleman). Two of our top ladies (Chen and Nagasu) lost to a Junior from JPN on US soil. Osmond is in control of her Senior B this weekend, at least after the SP. US ladies need to stop whiffing on easy jumping passes if they want a shot.

 

[Tinami Amori]

I think it is too early in the season to predict which skater is aiming for the podium, or top 5 or top 10.

 

[Willin]

@Tinami Amori ITA. We have 4-5 more months of potential injuries (or potential effects of currently healing injuries), personal drama, coaching changes, newly developed nerves, relapse to previous nerves, etc. before the Olympics.

Not to mention the Olympics are usually kinda crazy. While the expected winner usually rises to the top, there's usually at least one favorite for the podium who can't handle the pressure of being a favorite. Especially in ladies, there's also usually at least one person on the podium out of left field.

 

[coppertop1]

Zagitova hasn't competed in the senior ranks before this season. I don't think we should bank so heavily on her. That doesn't always work. Look at Lipnitskaya struggling after the team event. Don't count your chickens.

 

[DreamSkates]

This is my answer to your question. I would definitely say that a few of the US Ladies may have a chance at that podium. One thing to remember is there have been several figure skaters throughout the years that were "favored" to win Gold or be on the podium, but it didn't go quite as planned. The reason for that is that no one on this earth is perfect all the time.

I would say that Ashley Wagner, Karen Chen, Polina Edmunds or even Mirai Nagasu could have a good chance because nothing is impossible just like Ashley being a Worlds Silver Medalist.

I agree except Polina Edmunds. Gone for how long - it takes time to rebuild - is she really up to the level of Wagner or Chen at this point?

 

[kwanfan1818]

Lipnitskaia was in Russia at the home Olympics, where the team gold was huge, and the media was all-encompassing. Zagitova most likely won't be the only Russian Ladies skater in the TE, if they split Ladies (which I think they will this time), and the Olympics aren't a home Olympics showcase.

 

[coppertop1]

I agree except Polina Edmunds. Gone for how long - it takes time to rebuild - is she really up to the level of Wagner or Chen at this point?

I think it varies. It usually takes an entire season to get back to form. Remember how much Osmond struggled?

 

[Maximillian]

@Tinami Amori ITA. We have 4-5 more months of potential injuries (or potential effects of currently healing injuries), personal drama, coaching changes, newly developed nerves, relapse to previous nerves, etc. before the Olympics.

Not to mention the Olympics are usually kinda crazy. While the expected winner usually rises to the top, there's usually at least one favorite for the podium who can't handle the pressure of being a favorite. Especially in ladies, there's also usually at least one person on the podium out of left field.

But this is a sporting fan's message board and it's the beginning of the season, what the hell do people expect? I can guarantee you that fans of other sports prognosticate and make predictions on their respective fan media platforms at the beginning of the season. Whether or not these predictions are accurate in the long run is irrelevent, it's all about the conversation, since this is, after all a platform for fans of competitive figure skating to communicate with one another. I don't think there's any virtue in not making predictions at this juncture and if you don't want to, then don't.

 

[DreamSkates]

I think it varies. It usually takes an entire season to get back to form. Remember how much Osmond struggled?

Sure, makes sense. But I don't see Edmunds as ever having been as strong a skater as Osmond. But, you never know. We can only sit back and watch and see how everything progresses.

 

[Xela M]

Zagitova hasn't competed in the senior ranks before this season. I don't think we should bank so heavily on her. That doesn't always work. Look at Lipnitskaya struggling after the team event. Don't count your chickens.

Exactly. Why are people counting on her making the Olympic podium? What has she done exactly? Medvedeva's consistency is a unique exception and it's unlikely Zagitova will replicate it

 

[coppertop1]

Exactly. Why are people counting on her making the Olympic podium? What has she done exactly? Medvedeva's consistency is a unique exception and it's unlikely Zagitova will replicate it

She's young and extremely talented so people are excited. Zagitova may not even make the team with all the young talent in Russia. I think we should wait and see

 

[kwanfan1818]

Zagitova held off junior competition last season. Only four skaters in history have a total score higher than Zagitova in seniors, although she's clustered in with at least five other skaters. So it's clear she's getting senior marks in her first year as a senior.

Add in that, barring a miracle (or a disaster), the only truly competitive non-Russian at Euros will be Kostner, and if she gets to Euros, she'll be a heavy medal favorite at the major championship before the Olympics.

Add in the propensity of the best young Russian lady to land on championship pidiums, and you've got pretty good odds if you bet on her.

There are no US Ladies about which I would say even half of that, as much as I might like them.

 

[Simone411]

I agree except Polina Edmunds. Gone for how long - it takes time to rebuild - is she really up to the level of Wagner or Chen at this point?

ITA about taking time to rebuild. But I believe Polina is very serious about her situation, and she also has the determination and commitment to achieving her goal. That kind of spirit can make success out of something that no one else believes is possible. I believe that Polina will be one to watch during Nationals, and who knows, she might just make the team and surprise everyone.

 

[Spun Silver]

Zagitova held off junior competition last season. Only four skaters in history have a total score higher than Zagitova in seniors, although she's clustered in with at least five other skaters. So it's clear she's getting senior marks in her first year as a senior.

Add in that, barring a miracle (or a disaster), the only truly competitive non-Russian at Euros will be Kostner, and if she gets to Euros, she'll be a heavy medal favorite at the major championship before the Olympics.

Add in the propensity of the best young Russian lady to land on championship pidiums, and you've got pretty good odds if you bet on her.

There are no US Ladies about which I would say even half of that, as much as I might like them.

I reluctantly have to agree at this point in time, but Osmond and Daleman are another story. That is for another thread, though.

 

[Wyliefan]

I don't think Zagitova has Medvedeva's mental toughness, and without it, I think she could very easily miss the Olympic podium. Especially with Japanese and Canadian ladies in the mix -- and possibly even Karen Chen if she gets lucky enough to have the skate of her life at just the right time. (She was fourth in the world last season, and it's not such an enormous jump from fourth to third.) I could be wrong, but we'll see. When you get right down to it, nerves of steel seem to play an enormous part in who medals at the Olympics.

 

[Xela M]

Zagitova might not even make it out of Russia, let alone land on the Olympic podium. Russian nationals will not be a cake walk for any lady aside from Medvedeva.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I agree w/ the assessment that the podium will be Medvedeva, Zagitova and a lady from JPN. I think the big spoiler will be Osmond.

With what Osmond just did this weekend at Autumn Classic I see her repeating as silver at the Olys. Zagitova has technical score but a clean Osmond I think can get silver and ALSO have the highest PCS of anyone this season.

I think the best USA chick this season will be Bradie. With Mirai and Karen nipping at her heels.

Ash is the wild card depending how many URs there will be. (Mirai too)

@olympic I wouldn't count Kostner out of a bronze at all. Judges just throw PCS scores at her.