U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[Coco]

^^But by process of elimination, we could see what weighting / valuing was not used.

I spent a lot of time working on a spreadsheet on this issue four years ago, lol. There was no way they used the same weighting / valuing formula for each skater.

And again, I'm not sure that is a bad thing. Athletes go into slumps and they also get on hot streaks. Those are powerful trends that shouldn't be ignored.

 

[clairecloutier]

I agree that trend is important and should be taken into account. However I see no reason why the same formulas/values should not be applied to all skaters in consideration. You could simply include trend as one of the factors.

 

[Coco]

That would be a much better and more transparent way to do it. I think they want to have their cake and eat it too, ultimately. Complete Control!

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

Even under the last Olympic criteria, 2016 Skate America would not be considered.

For the five events that have already take place, the ones under consideration are:

Chen:
3. 2017 Worlds: 4th
5. 2017 4C's: 12th
6. 2017 US Nats: 1st

Wagner:
3. 2017 Worlds: 7th
5. 2017 4C's: N/A
6: 2017 US Nats: 2nd

Nagasu:
3. 2017 Worlds: N/A
5. 2017 4C's: 3rd
6: 2017 US Nats: 4th

Bell:
3. 2017 Worlds: N/A
5. 2017 4C's: 6th
6: 2017 US Nats: 3rd

Zhang:
3. 2017 Worlds: N/A
5. 2017 4C's: N/A
6. 2017 US Nats: 5th

Tenell:
6. 2017 US Nats: 9th
7. 2017 Jr. Worlds: 7th

Andrews:
7. 2017 Jr. Worlds: 12th

Mariah Bell was on the Worlds team this year. IIRC she placed 12th overall (9th in the FS).

 

[kwanfan1818]

One of the problems with trend is the limited number of data points, plus you have to decide, is it number of points? Is it % increase? What is the baseline to determine improvement or lack of improvement?

But mainly, it's that they don't want to tell anyone, and they want to reserve the right to make it up as they go along and go with their guts like any jury.

 

[Willin]

They'll never use the criteria. They have them so they say they can have them, but as people have pointed out the weighting on the criteria is not entirely clear - giving them a lot of room to maneuver. The athletes are also well aware that if they want to go to the Olympics, they have to go through the USFSA (unless they are able to compete for another country), so there's no use complaining. Skaters also know that they only thing they can do is skate their best and hope for the best, so they'll all focus on that.

 

[Coco]

We should keep stats on skaters who have consecutive elements with no URs and 0/+ GOE.

 

[clairecloutier]

Picking the Olympic team according to who has the least URs. That is some inspiring criteria.

 

[jlai]

No matter what USFS does re selection, someone will complain. If they stick to one set of criteria, people say they hang on to outdated thinking and don't improve the criteria. If they try to tweak it, someone will complain they do not have consistent criteria over the years. Those sort of complaints always make me go ?????.

Not that I am a USFS fan, mind you. They have had their share of screw ups. But their screw ups, imho, aren't with the Olympic selections. Their biggest screw ups are generally the stuff that don't catch so much publicity. Like why the heck did Dornbush go to 4cc the one year he placed outside top ten at nationals.

I think having a so-called explainable number for everything seems to make the general public happy, but as a number analyst at work, who thinks a lot of numerical metrics are bull shit, I also think quantitative analysis is way overvalued over qualitative analysis. But that doesn't stop nonstatistical staff at work from wanting to put a number on everything, because numbers are 'politically safer'. And then they turn around and misapply the numbers

 

[Coco]

I just think the stat on GOE would be interesting...for us as fans.

Sort of like a career batting average or a +/- for skaters.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Picking the Olympic team according to who has the least URs. That is some inspiring criteria.

Or, to put it another way, reward the skaters for proper technique.

 

[AxelAnnie]

I bet that if URs received a zero score you would see them cleaned up really quickly.

 

[DimaToe]

Picking the Olympic team according to who has the least URs. That is some inspiring criteria.

As uninspiring as it may seem though wouldn't it be a wise choice for that 3rd post at least? For someone like Wagner at least her PCS will make up for that UR or 2 she might get, but someone that might not get PCS in the 8's, fully rotating their jumps would greatly help, and in that case it fully would make sense to take that into consideration, as awful as it might seem to some to make presentation an afterthought. Beyond that it'd send a message to the younger skaters, rotate those triples and you'll have a better shot at the big assignments, because whether we like it or not under this version of IJS that is what matters more than a cohesive program

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

I think having a so-called explainable number for everything seems to make the general public happy, but as a number analyst at work, who thinks a lot of numerical metrics are bull shit, I also think quantitative analysis is way overvalued over qualitative analysis. But that doesn't stop nonstatistical staff at work from wanting to put a number on everything, because numbers are 'politically safer'. And then they turn around and misapply the numbers

Thanks for that. I'm trained as a statistician and recognize that the numbers you pick have a big effect on the result you get. The IJS has changed skating partly because it attracts fans and judges who believe in collecting, describing and assigning meaning to numbers. At some point the numbers take on their own meaning separate from the thing (skating) that they measure. We argue about what we count and not what we see.

There's nothing sacrosanct about a number approach. You don't need them, particularly in the quantity described in this thread, to know good skating.

 

[Marco]

I like what I see from Karen so far. The bad thing is that the 3lutz3toe(UR) and the 3flip(e) don't seem fixable in the short term. Looks to be quite consistent this time of the season, compared to her past records and the other US ladies.

I love Ashley, but I just don't know what to expect anymore. Wouldn't it be quite horrible if skipping 4CCs earlier this season would ultimately cost her an Olympic spot in the body of work argument?

Mirai and Mariah are next in line. I think Mirai having a slightly better free skate (with non-horrible music cuts) may help her in the end. Mirai has the history of acing the Nationals right before the Olympics. Her main goal really is to not tank her GPs, or at least place better than Mariah.

I think we should not put too much pressure on Gracie and Polina, for obvious reasons.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

I like what I see from Karen so far. The bad thing is that the 3lutz3toe(UR) and the 3flip(e) don't seem fixable in the short term. Looks to be quite consistent this time of the season, compared to her past records and the other US ladies.

I love Ashley, but I just don't know what to expect anymore. Wouldn't it be quite horrible if skipping 4CCs earlier this season would ultimately cost her an Olympic spot in the body of work argument?

Mirai and Mariah are next in line. I think Mirai having a slightly better free skate (with non-horrible music cuts) may help her in the end. Mirai has the history of acing the Nationals right before the Olympics. Her main goal really is to not tank her GPs, or at least place better than Mariah.

I think we should not put too much pressure on Gracie and Polina, for obvious reasons.

Bradie Tennell may be a strong contender too, the way she's been skating so far.

 

[Marco]

Polina won her JGPs and made JGPF and placed 2nd at Nationals to make the team in 2014. Bradie has 1 GP only so I think she would have to ace that along with a top two at Nationals to have a shot against these other ladies who had a stronger body of work.

From a skating angle, I find her style still relatively juniorish and does not have the command of the top US ladies. She sure can jump though!

On a political / commercial front, I wonder if the USFS would even allow an upset to happen like it did in 2014. Karen is the up and comer with the whole package who dazzled with a 4th place finish at Worlds. Ashley is the only lady to have medaled at Worlds since 2006 and has been a top US star since 2012. Mirai has a feel good come back story after the 2014 saga and a 3axel, and a couple of 4CCs medals in this quad. I honestly can't even see Mariah get past these three even if she beat one of them at Nationals.

As dark horses, I would root for Mariah but I don't love her long program. If Gracie or Polina are ready by Nationals, I hope it happens for either of them.

 

[coppertop1]

I think Mirai's chances are better now than they were in 2014. Between 2010-2014, she was inconsistent and had some lacklustre results, as including poor performances at Nationals. Ashley worked hard to improve and overtook her. Then Gracie Gold emerged and was declared the Next One. Polina was young and very promising. Now, things have changed. I do think Ashley will be on the team. Karen probably will. The third spot is wide open. Gracie and Polina are both questionable. So is Mariah. Saying Bradie is a shoo-in feels like a stretch.

 

[Willin]

@coppertop1 Not to mention in 2014 Mirai had no coach. I think she has a great shot at making it this year - she's definitely in attack mode, and she has a coach that USFS loves.

 

[coppertop1]

I didn't know about her not having a coach. That wouldn't help. I agree, Mirai definitely seems focused. Being left of the Olympic Team may have been a wake up call. Her 3A attempt at US Classic was impressive It looked pretty close. Just a two foot landing and maybe a bit underrotated but a good attempt. Having a 3A in her arsenal will definitely make the USFSA take a a second look at her.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

^^^ Yeah but following it up with 100% URs for all the other triples may not. I'm more on alert to that UR festival than the 3 axel unfortunately.

Not sure why they are talking about doing a quad in the future, if that quad gets downgraded to a double. (At that point wouldn't it be considered a spin? lol)

Anywhoooo I do think our gal will be on The Oly Team!!!! I hope she keeps hitting and keeps emoting!!!

 

[coppertop1]

Yeah her URs are a problem and it's a hard habit to break. I do think Mirai looks focused and more determined than she has in a while and I hope she makes it. I've always liked her and I want her to put it together when it counts. Some skaters do break through when they're in their 20s. I can see Nagasu doing that.

 

[GullyGirl84]

I mean, technically in the US International classic LP, Mirai rotated 3 out of 8 planned triples (plus got an under on a double toe, had a fall, and a ! on the lutz). For comparison, Karen rotated 3 out of 7 planned triples (and had a fall, and had an e on the flip). Not that it makes it better, but-

Though Karen generally has put out some good LPs on the grand prix in the past, where Mirai really doesn't seem to get momentum going until much later in the season. It will be interesting to see how both of them do at Japan Open (Mirai in general kind of has the Marked Woman reputation when it comes to unders ).

 

[Doggygirl]

I love Ashley, but I just don't know what to expect anymore. Wouldn't it be quite horrible if skipping 4CCs earlier this season would ultimately cost her an Olympic spot in the body of work argument?

I was just thinking this very thing. Along with wondering if she will have any regrets over not doing any challenger events. I know she does not historically do them, but it seems a lot of the podium contenders are out there challenging this year, and it's part of the "body of work" potential, correct? I think she must be banking on placing top 3 at US Nationals and that will be good enough.

 

[kwanfan1818]

If USFS does not change its mind and does use the last Worlds criteria for the Olympic team selection, Challenger Series events are not considered part of the "body of work".

 

[Jammers]

Bradie Tennell may be a strong contender too, the way she's been skating so far.

Bradie is the new Rachael Flatt. A consistent skater who lacks charisma and won't win many events but who doesn't make mistakes and beats more talented skaters. She's a threat to make the Olympic team.

 

[DimaToe]

Bradie is the new Rachael Flatt. A consistent skater who lacks charisma and won't win many events but who doesn't make mistakes and beats more talented skaters. She's a threat to make the Olympic team.

At Bradie's age Flatt was already a Junior World Champion and a U.S. Champion. I get the comparison, but I think Bradie at this point is being overestimated. The best she's managed is 7th at junior words and although she's gone up against some big names already, i think we won't know how much she will really factor into the conversation until we see how she is scored at Skate America.

 

[Jammers]

At Bradie's age Flatt was already a Junior World Champion and a U.S. Champion. I get the comparison, but I think Bradie at this point is being overestimated. The best she's managed is 7th at junior words and although she's gone up against some big names already, i think we won't know how much she will really factor into the conversation until we see how she is scored at Skate America.

Flatt faced much less competition in her time then Bradie is now both in Juniors and Seniors.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

I think Mirai's chances are better now than they were in 2014. Between 2010-2014, she was inconsistent and had some lacklustre results, as including poor performances at Nationals. Ashley worked hard to improve and overtook her. Then Gracie Gold emerged and was declared the Next One. Polina was young and very promising. Now, things have changed. I do think Ashley will be on the team. Karen probably will. The third spot is wide open. Gracie and Polina are both questionable. So is Mariah. Saying Bradie is a shoo-in feels like a stretch.

I don't think anyone here has said that Bradie is a 'shoo-in'. I myself feel she is a contender with a shot given her performances so far.

I also feel that this Olympic season is a great chance for Mirai. I think this is the strongest she's ever looked and I hope her 'body of work' leaves no question that she should be named to the Olympic team!

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Skating can be such a crap shoot at the best of times. Unless you're Medvedeva, there are no guarantees.

A skater in January is very different from say, one in August. One can assume at Nationals, they will be ready and in their best physical and competitive form.

The 'Body Of Work' ruling bothers me a little. I would choose the athletes on the podium.