U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

[olympic]

With what Osmond just did this weekend at Autumn Classic I see her repeating as silver at the Olys. Zagitova has technical score but a clean Osmond I think can get silver and ALSO have the highest PCS of anyone this season.

I think the best USA chick this season will be Bradie. With Mirai and Karen nipping at her heels.

Ash is the wild card depending how many URs there will be. (Mirai too)

@olympic I wouldn't count Kostner out of a bronze at all. Judges just throw PCS scores at her.

When I was kid growing up, we called the Cleveland Browns 'The Cardiac Kids'. You never knew what you were going to get and it would give you a heart attack just watching. I feel the same way about US ladies

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

With so many seasoned high PCS women hanging around I don't think these newbies will be a big factor. Comparing Osmond to Mahara last night. This very talented Japanese teen still looks juniorish. No matter how easy her jumps look I don't see judges choosing her over a clean - let's say - Pogorilaya. All the the new ones will face this.

Back to the thread topic. No, no US lady on the podium. Chen looks too much like what is already out there. Love Ashley, but feel she's winding down, naturally. Mirai would have to have a Tuk-2015 season to be taken seriously. Again we love her, but not likely.

Sticking with Med, Osmond and Pogo. Spoiler cold be Daleman who ended last season on such a ranp-up.

 

[aftershocks]

At this point, I think there is only one spot available on the podium for a non-Russian. I would expect that Medvedeva and Zagitova will be taking two places. I would expect a Japanese lady to take the other spot...the more erratic U.S. and Canadian ladies are more of a long shot, IMO.

Really? Then it's because of politics because neither Med nor Zagitova should be getting the high PCS they are receiving! At least Zagitova is less histrionic but both of them are a bit studied in the way they present themselves on the ice. And neither are that great with interpreting and feeling the music. They both move well and can rotate, which apparently means everything to ISU. And with backloading their tech they can rack up a lot of points. Medvedeva was over-scored with 80 pts this early in the season! The irksome thing is the hype and the way that their lack of maturity is viewed as just okay. When they do make technical mistakes, they aren't harshly judged. Of the Russians, I really like better Polina Turskaya whose skating I find much more genuine and musical re her presentation skills. But unfortunately, Turskaya has health issues.

As far as the Olympics, I think I will let the fall events unfold first. Plus, I think there will be a strong push for Osmond should she perform strong in the GPs. Turnabout is fair play. The Russians strongly pushed for Lipnitskaya and Sotnikova in the lead-up to Sochi. Their PCS scores began to rise suddenly. And it was plain obvious the push was for one or both not just to be on the Olympic podium, but for at least one (preferaby Lipnitskaya) to win gold. When Lipnitskaya faltered, Sotnikova saw her chance. Plus Sotnikova was hungry and fired up after being left off the team event for Russia.

Not to be counted out are Mai Mihara and Marin Honda, who are both very strong. I especially think that Mihara has an Olympic worthy fp, and she's capable of competing extremely well (Despite the fact she didn't do so well at Worlds earlier this year, she did win 4CCs). The Russians are very strong competitors, but they are helped by over-hyped perception of their invincibility and this alarming Lolita-syndrome that has taken over ladies figure skating.

That's the reason I will root strongly for Osmond, Daleman, Nagasu. All three are much more mature and are more solid performers with a better feel for the music at their best. Plus I enjoy Daleman's powerful skating -- these are real ladies and not teeny-boppers.

Of course it will be hard to knock Med off her pedestal with the PCS gifts from the judges. Med has had to show not much over the course of her young career except that she can rotate, mime in overstudied fashion, wrap her arm over her head incessantly, and make OTT faces.

If U.S. ladies perform well, they should place well, but will likely have a difficult time reaching the podium. There are too many candidates, plus too much hype over the Russians and up-and-coming phenoms. So it looks like the only hope for North America is that Osmond and Daleman continue to shine and stake claim for that podium, with the political clout of Skate Canada behind them. U.S. fed has zip political clout and no clue how to play politics even if they did have more power.

 

[Coco]

I am curious to see Zagitova's PCS on the GP series. She has many good qualities, but she seems juniorish.

 

[coppertop1]

USA has three spots, Chen will likely make the team as will Ashley. The battle will be for the third spot with Nagasu, Bell, Gold, and a few others battling it out. I can see Chen and Wagner as dark horses if one of the contenders faulter, which has been known to happen at the Olympics.

 

[Frau Muller]

Kostner may be like Witt in 1994. If very lucky, she may be 6th based on propping up in the 2nd mark.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

USA has three spots, Chen will likely make the team as will Ashley. The battle will be for the third spot with Nagasu, Bell, Gold, and a few others battling it out. I can see Chen and Wagner as dark horses if one of the contenders faulter, which has been known to happen at the Olympics.

hmmmm I think the only shue-in is Bradie who you didn't mention.

2 others between Ash, Mirai and Karen (the 2 with the least amount of URs)

Dont think will factor: Courtney, Polina, Caroline

 

[Willin]

@AngieNikodinovLove Bradie is hardly a shoo-in. She's only had two Senior B's (3rd and 4th place), no Senior GP, and only one Junior international medal (not at a JGP or Junior Worlds). She was amazing at her Senior B this year, but that's one competition without a large crowd or US TV coverage or hype. We'll see how she does at Skate America if she is indeed the host pick for that.

That's not to say I don't think she can make the team - I think she has a good chance to get that 3rd spot if she keeps performing how she did - just that it's not a guarantee at all.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

^^^ She's my shoo-in for personal reasons. Least amount of pressure. UR's seem to be mostly in check, seems mentally strong, seems prepared early. With her I feel like I know what Im gonna get. With Ash, Mirai and Karen just depends on the moment of the day.

Negatives (to me): seems juniorish. She will be the Polina of 18. Silver or Gold at USA Nats.

Just like Karen was the surprise 3 yrs ago and Polina before her. She will be my surprise pick for this season (not because she's my fav or something just because its a feeling).

 

[Debbie S]

Based on the 'body of work' selection criteria USFS has already laid out, Karen and Ashley are pretty much locks for the Oly team, provided they stay healthy and their GP seasons aren't a total disaster. Bradie is one of several contenders (Mirai, Gracie, Mariah, Polina, etc) for the 3rd spot.

 

[Wyliefan]

It really is remarkable that there's only been ONE repeat ladies' medalist in the past four Worlds! Makes one feel that almost anything could happen at this Olympics -- aside from Janny losing. I'd bet my life savings on her if I were a betting woman.

 

[her grace]

Based on the 'body of work' selection criteria USFS has already laid out, Karen and Ashley are pretty much locks for the Oly team, provided they stay healthy and their GP seasons aren't a total disaster.

Does anyone have a link to the 2018 Olympic Selection Criteria? If it follows the same pattern as the 2017 world selection criteria, then the committee will only be looking at results from this season and the season prior. If the committee is only looking at this season and last, then Wagner's 2016 world silver isn't supposed to even be considered.

Here's Wagner's results that would be considered if the criteria is the same:

"Athletes shall be selected based upon performance(s) in the events below.

Tier 1
- 2018 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: TBD
- 2017 ISU Grand Prix Final: TBD
- 2017 ISU World Figure Skating Championships: 7th

Tier 2
- 2017 Grand Prix Series Competitions: TBD
- 2017 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships: DNC

Tier 3
- 2017 Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions: DNC
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: 2nd
- 2017 World Junior Figure Skating Championships: N/A
- 2017 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final: N/A"

To me, that's a pretty slim body of work, and she's going to need to earn her way like everyone else this season.

 

[jlai]

Does anyone have a link to the 2018 Olympic Selection Criteria? If it follows the same pattern as the 2017 world selection criteria, then the committee will only be looking at results from this season and the season prior. If the committee is only looking at this season and last, then Wagner's 2016 world silver isn't supposed to even be considered.

Here's Wagner's results that would be considered if the criteria is the same:

"Athletes shall be selected based upon performance(s) in the events below.

Tier 1
- 2018 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: TBD
- 2017 ISU Grand Prix Final: TBD
- 2017 ISU World Figure Skating Championships: 7th

Tier 2
- 2017 Grand Prix Series Competitions: TBD
- 2017 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships: DNC

Tier 3
- 2017 Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions: DNC
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: 2nd
- 2017 World Junior Figure Skating Championships: N/A
- 2017 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final: N/A"

To me, that's a pretty slim body of work, and she's going to need to earn her way like everyone else this season.

yup. Since there are no consistent US ladies anymore, O spots are more up for grabs than they are for US men. Wagner is no longer as consistent as she was 4 years ago, so 4th is actually likely to put her off the O team.

 

[Maximillian]

Never mind...

 

[Willin]

Does anyone have a link to the 2018 Olympic Selection Criteria? If it follows the same pattern as the 2017 world selection criteria, then the committee will only be looking at results from this season and the season prior. If the committee is only looking at this season and last, then Wagner's 2016 world silver isn't supposed to even be considered.

To me, that's a pretty slim body of work, and she's going to need to earn her way like everyone else this season.

You left out a big part of the season prior to this one in Ashley's body of work: 1st at Skate America.

Even if they go by these criteria, she's still got a pretty strong resume compared to some of the Olympic Hopefuls (Gracie, Polina, Bradie, Starr, Tessa, Amber). Mirai arguably has a better body of work 2016-2017 in medal count and 4CC, but she didn't have finishes as high as Ashley at other events both participated in (GP events & Nationals) and didn't go to Worlds.

If, like for most Olympics, they go for results of the whole quad - it is no question that Ashley has the best resume of any US lady. 4 GP medals, a GPF medal, a world silver, National Gold, Silver, and Bronze, etc. Perhaps the best part of her resume as far as USFS is concerned? Her consistency. She's never gotten lower than 7th at a major international competition. The biggest problem for most US ladies isn't the potential, it's their tendency to cave under pressure. Ashley does mess up, but when she does it's often not bad enough to tank her scores like it is with some of the other US ladies. Even with the criteria, and even if they say they used them, they will not ignore this - exactly like what happened in 2014.

 

[her grace]

You left out a big part of the season prior to this one in Ashley's body of work: 1st at Skate America.

I didn't leave it out. The selection criteria (if it's the same as for worlds last year) leaves it out. The 2016 GPs aren't included; the upcoming 2017 GPs are.

If, like for most Olympics, they go for results of the whole quad . . .

If they do that, then I hope that's what's in the published criteria. Published criteria is supposed to help make this subjective process more transparent and fair. If USFS doesn't bother to follow its criteria, then the organization has serious problems. And frankly, I don't find results from 2015 or 2016 all that relevant--that was a lifetime ago in skating.

it is no question that Ashley has the best resume of any US lady. 4 GP medals, a GPF medal, a world silver, National Gold, Silver, and Bronze, etc. Perhaps the best part of her resume as far as USFS is concerned? Her consistency. She's never gotten lower than 7th at a major international competition. The biggest problem for most US ladies isn't the potential, it's their tendency to cave under pressure. Ashley does mess up, but when she does it's often not bad enough to tank her scores like it is with some of the other US ladies. Even with the criteria, and even if they say they used them, they will not ignore this - exactly like what happened in 2014.

In 2014, Wagner was coming off of medaling at the GP Final. Maybe she'll do that again, but if not, her position is substantially weaker than in 2014. She hasn't had a great international competition since 2016 Skate America, and she's darned lucky that she finished 7th at worlds with that poor LP. Maybe that was a blip. Maybe this fall she'll earn GP medals and set herself up well going into nationals. Maybe she'll only do okay, but still better than her fellow Americans. Or maybe she'll continue to tumble in the rankings such that her recent body of work won't be all that impressive. We shall see.

 

[olympic]

Re AW, has she ever given a definitive reason for the slump last season?

 

[Xela M]

Re AW, has she ever given a definitive reason for the slump last season?

Heartbreak

 

[Willin]

@olympic She's given vague references about personal problems like breaking up with her boyfriend making training hard. She's said the main problem was having trouble staying focused or keeping up motivation after her World Silver. Ashley seems to be one of those who is motivated by failing to live up to her expectations, and when she exceeded her expectations it was hard for her to grab onto some failure to motivate herself. I would bet her frustration about last season has given her new motivation.

@her grace So then who has a stronger resume than Ashley based on those criteria? Karen does and very, very maybe Mirai. But - Mirai was beaten by Ashley at Nationals and didn't go to worlds. But either way, Ashley's still easily top 3. She's not going to have to compete as hard as the other US ladies. And like I said, they have those criteria, but unless Ashley really screws the GP up, I think she's in based on her history and consistency.

 

[Debbie S]

Maybe she'll only do okay, but still better than her fellow Americans.

Well, yes, that's kind of the point. Ashley didn't medal at Worlds or GPF, but she did well enough at her GPs to qualify for the GPF, which none of the other contenders did. I hope Ashley will finish in the top 3 at Nats, but if she doesn't, unless at least 2 of the others have a standout season on the GP, including qualifying for the GPF, I would expect Ashley to be named to the team. Same with Karen.

 

[aftershocks]

Re AW, has she ever given a definitive reason for the slump last season?

I don't know if Ash has said anything specifically. She usually does not shy away from speaking openly, so maybe she has been quoted discussing last season. In general, the fact that Ash won the silver medal at Worlds in 2016 was a goal reached which can lead to a need for reflection, reassessing and redirecting goals -- perhaps even taking a breather during the off-season. Raf mentioned discussing with Ash her mindset re whether she would be ready to come back tough last season. Also, Ash experienced a break-up in her personal life, which can be a difficult adjustment. Stylistically, I never thought the Goth dark as night hair color ever suited Ashley, but did it reflect her overall mood?

ETA:
I see someone already posted just as I was posting, re Ash's split with her boyfriend maybe being a factor in how prepared she was mentally last season. And also the question of motivation after winning a World silver medal.

 

[her grace]

@her grace So then who has a stronger resume than Ashley based on those criteria?

Well, a lot of the criteria hasn't happened yet, which was kinda my point. I'm not saying that Wagner won't deserve to go--she very well may, but IMO, she's not a lock at this point. YMMV

 

[kwanfan1818]

The Worlds selection criteria has been more restricted than the Sochi Olympic criteria. While there's no guarantee 2018 criteria will remain the same, in the document amended in June 2013 by USFS in response to the USOC documentation requirements, the 2014 criteria were, in priority order, with no Tiers:

1. 2014 US Figure Skating Championships
2. 2013 GPF
3. 2013 World Figure Skating Championships
4. 2013 Grand Prix Compeitions
5. 2013 Four Continents Championships
6. 2013 US Figure Skating Championships
7. 2013 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
8. 2013 JGPF

Only results from those competitions were up for discussion.

Top five at 2014 Nationals plus any of the following could be considered:

1. Results from the competitions listed above in priority order
2. Because ICSM wanted a skater/team to be considered decided there were extenuating circumstances.
3. By petition, with proper medical back-up for having missed one or both segments of the above competitions.

I suspect Tiers might be added.

ETA: Half of the top six criteria haven't even taken place, and none of the US Ladies are taking JGP by storm in terms of 2017 JGPF qualifying. Ma might be a long shot. Tennell has a 7th from Jr. Worlds.

 

[Willin]

@kwanfan1818 According to USFS's press release/IceNetwork article about the selection criteria for last year's worlds, that new criteria is the set of selection criteria they anticipate using for 2018. (Although they said they would, they also didn't say that they wouldn't be open to changing it)

 

[kwanfan1818]

Even under the last Olympic criteria, 2016 Skate America would not be considered.

For the five events that have already take place, the ones under consideration are:

Chen:
3. 2017 Worlds: 4th
5. 2017 4C's: 12th
6. 2017 US Nats: 1st

Wagner:
3. 2017 Worlds: 7th
5. 2017 4C's: N/A
6: 2017 US Nats: 2nd

Nagasu:
3. 2017 Worlds: N/A
5. 2017 4C's: 3rd
6: 2017 US Nats: 4th

Bell:
3. 2017 Worlds: N/A 12th (see Sasha'sSpins correction below)
5. 2017 4C's: 6th
6: 2017 US Nats: 3rd

Zhang:
3. 2017 Worlds: N/A
5. 2017 4C's: N/A
6. 2017 US Nats: 5th

Tenell:
6. 2017 US Nats: 9th
7. 2017 Jr. Worlds: 7th

Andrews:
7. 2017 Jr. Worlds: 12th

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

^^^ Although Bell did go to Worlds.

 

[vesperholly]

Add in that, barring a miracle (or a disaster), the only truly competitive non-Russian at Euros will be Kostner, and if she gets to Euros, she'll be a heavy medal favorite at the major championship before the Olympics.

Kostner could medal at Euros, but if only for lack of competition outside of Russians. She might garner top PCS, but her TES isn't close to being competitive.

 

[vesperholly]

Does anyone have a link to the 2018 Olympic Selection Criteria? If it follows the same pattern as the 2017 world selection criteria, then the committee will only be looking at results from this season and the season prior. If the committee is only looking at this season and last, then Wagner's 2016 world silver isn't supposed to even be considered.

Here's Wagner's results that would be considered if the criteria is the same:

"Athletes shall be selected based upon performance(s) in the events below.

Tier 1
- 2018 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: TBD
- 2017 ISU Grand Prix Final: TBD
- 2017 ISU World Figure Skating Championships: 7th

Tier 2
- 2017 Grand Prix Series Competitions: TBD
- 2017 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships: DNC

Tier 3
- 2017 Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions: DNC
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: 2nd
- 2017 World Junior Figure Skating Championships: N/A
- 2017 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final: N/A"

To me, that's a pretty slim body of work, and she's going to need to earn her way like everyone else this season.

It's a "slim" body of work because Ashley is ineligible for two Tier 3 criteria (juniors) and three of the five Tier 1 and Tier 2 events haven't even been competed yet!

 

[Coco]

Don't put too much energy into figuring out who is ahead or behind based on the selection criteria.

It's not a mathematical process.

The same formula is not used for each skater. Four years ago, when the same formula was applied to the top 4, there was no reasonable formula that gave us the team we ended up with. Basically, first year seniors' "body of work" was judged by different criteria than seniors with two plus years. I'm not sure that is a bad thing, but I don't believe it is specifically enumerated in the selection criteria.

 

[clairecloutier]

^^ As I recall, @kwanfan1818 argued several times last season that the competitions listed as criteria events were not given numerically weighted values, and that it was not stated by USFSA whether it was better to have high results in 1 or 2 criteria competitions versus mediocre results in 4 or 5 criteria competitions. Therefore, no meaningful analysis could be done of the skaters' results in the criteria events--except by those at USFSA, who knew how things were being weighted/valued.