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AxelAnnie

Like a small boat on the ocean...
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Oh my. Ashley (who I was prepared to dislike) looked really good. Karen OTOH she does not have enough 'tude for Carmen.........and I am not sure she realized there was music going on at all. Goodness............and I know one cannot tell from a video, but she looked awfully slow out there.
 

Firedancer

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Not bad from either.

If that is ASh's total score then her free was scored around 134. Do you know if there were many UR's or 2foots?

I'm at work so I only had time to watch Ashley. She popped the last jump on the 3 jump combo & 2 footed the lutz at the end of the program. But other than that she looked good. She is back in the red MR dress.
 

jiejie

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:( I thought Ashley's program was lackluster, considering it's not a new program for her so the "first time out of the blocks" excuse can't be applied here. It looked slow, it felt stale. I expected to see fresh choreographic tweaks--but didn't. The UR's and flutz are still there. Spins still not improved. I am a big Ashley fan, but am so disappointed. I think even with completion of the jumps she missed (second 2A not in combination, pop on the salchow in combo), this is very vulnerable even trying to make top 3 at Nationals. I'd say she has some work to do before her first GP, to get all this cleaned up, polished and re-sparkling, and get momentum going.
 

Willin

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@jiejie It's also a fancam at an odd angle on an ice sheet that's smaller than most competition rinks are. Just like all the fancams from summer competitions, I'm not going to judge a program from it.

I do agree that I wish there was some fresh choreography, though. I thought there would be since she brought Benji Schwimmer on when she announced that she was returning to it...
 

Lanie

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These rinks are not Olympic sized rinks so it can be difficult for the skaters to transition on for these sorts of events.

Maybe choreo was taken out and such to accommodate. I hope? I expected to see a fresh take on MR, not going back tot the same old. @jiejie, "stale" is right. Sigh.
 

vesperholly

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These rinks are not Olympic sized rinks so it can be difficult for the skaters to transition on for these sorts of events.
Most rinks aren't Olympic-sized and skaters train on NHL-sized rinks all the time.

I really hope Ashley at least gets a new dress for MR. The program felt slow and stale to me, too. :shuffle:
 

Lanie

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Most rinks aren't Olympic-sized and skaters train on NHL-sized rinks all the time.

I really hope Ashley at least gets a new dress for MR. The program felt slow and stale to me, too. :shuffle:

I am spoiled by our rink which has Olympic and NHL, so us skaters use the Olympic rink all the time.

Ashley is such a hard worker and so talented, it's a shame she felt the need to go back to this to just get that spark back in her skating.
 

mag

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It was hard to tell, but is it possible that she will not combo the 2A's and leave the combo for the second half?
 

DimaToe

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Lol, Wagner will medal on the GP. Yeah she is like Kwan post 2003 (injured and barely hanging on) but what got her medals in the past wasnā€™t natural talent but that endless grit to deliver ā€œbeyondā€ her capabilities, weā€™ve underestimated Wagner plenty in the past, I think we wouldā€™ve learned our lesson by now :p
 

RoseRed

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Sad to agree with you...wonder if any US woman will earn one this year.
CoR: Mirai and Mariah - there's Evgenia, Wakaba, Elena R., Carolina - maybe Mirai could get a bronze. I doubt either of them will beat Wakaba and we know Medvedeva's untouchable.

SC: Karen and Ashley - there's Kaetlyn, Maria S., Anna P., Marin - one of the US ladies could get bronze. I'd be surprised to see either beat Kaetlyn, especially at home, and Marin did just beat both of them in the States. Maria didn't look that great at test skates, but that's very early, so we'll see after Finlandia and who knows where Anna's at. Karen and Ashley could also lose to all four of them.

CoC: Gracie Gold - there's Gabby Daleman, Alina Z, Elena, Mai, Marin, Wakaba - even if Gracie does end up competing, that's a super deep field.

NHK: Mirai and Mariah - there's Satoko, Evgenia, Carolina, Polina T. - again bronze is possible, maybe even silver, just because behind Evgenia those ladies have question marks do to injury or lower tech, but again they could all beat Mirai and Mariah.

IdF: Gracie and Polina E. - there's Kaetlyn, Alina, Mai and Maria - we don't know how Polina's going to look after her injury, but even if she's progressing well, that's a strong group.

SA: Karen, Ashley, Bradie - Gabby, Polina T., Satoko, Anna - one of the US ladies could medal - I think Gabby will be on the podium. Satoko or Polina T. have the talent, just injury question marks. If Anna's on I think she'll beat the US girls too, but who knows.
 

leafygreens

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Lol, Wagner will medal on the GP. Yeah she is like Kwan post 2003 (injured and barely hanging on) but what got her medals in the past wasnā€™t natural talent but that endless grit to deliver ā€œbeyondā€ her capabilities, weā€™ve underestimated Wagner plenty in the past, I think we wouldā€™ve learned our lesson by now :p

The difference being this year her peak level (2016 worlds) is not going to be good enough. It has nothing to do with her capabilities personally but that the skating world has progressed and she has stagnated. Supposedly she is working on her spin levels, speed etc. but nothing looks any different. People like to say "she chooses to peak later" but this program is seriously bad and with American inflation. Is she really going to appear in four months with magically improved spins? If she wants an Olympic individual medal as she states, she will have to improve beyond 2016 world's, not just be the best for HER. At this point in the season she would have to start off being at least that good and improve on it each time, not start off with her 2012 self. Mirai is already landing multiple triple axels and has always had great spins. Med/Zag plus the Japanese are going to make this a very tall order even to get a GP medal.
 

DimaToe

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The difference being this year her peak level (2016 worlds) is not going to be good enough. It has nothing to do with her capabilities personally but that the skating world has progressed and she has stagnated. Supposedly she is working on her spin levels, speed etc. but nothing looks any different. People like to say "she chooses to peak later" but this program is seriously bad and with American inflation. Is she really going to appear in four months with magically improved spins? If she wants an Olympic individual medal as she states, she will have to improve beyond 2016 world's, not just be the best for HER. At this point in the season she would have to start off being at least that good and improve on it each time, not start off with her 2012 self. Mirai is already landing multiple triple axels and has always had great spins. Med/Zag plus the Japanese are going to make this a very tall order even to get a GP medal.

Wagner with UR jumps is still miles above the rest (Minus Janny, Osmond, Kostner) in presentation and overall delivery of a cohesive program. Yeah Iā€™m aware she isnā€™t at her absolute peak as an athlete but at the same time Wagner shows her best when she is an underdog.IMO sheā€™s still as much of a contender as Honda and Dalemen for an individual bronze. Wagner knows how to deliver when the more naturally talented skaters falter under pressure, even if she if being held together by tape this season I know better than to count her out.
 

Iluvid

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@jiejie It's also a fancam at an odd angle on an ice sheet that's smaller than most competition rinks are. Just like all the fancams from summer competitions, I'm not going to judge a program from it.

I do agree that I wish there was some fresh choreography, though. I thought there would be since she brought Benji Schwimmer on when she announced that she was returning to it...
This competition was at Paramount iceland, it is Olympic size. I've competed there a few times and i dont really like the ice surface. Its a very old rink where the first Zamboni was. I love the red dress but thinking she may get a new one.
 

artsciboy

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:( I thought Ashley's program was lackluster, considering it's not a new program for her so the "first time out of the blocks" excuse can't be applied here. It looked slow, it felt stale. I expected to see fresh choreographic tweaks--but didn't. The UR's and flutz are still there. Spins still not improved. I am a big Ashley fan, but am so disappointed. I think even with completion of the jumps she missed (second 2A not in combination, pop on the salchow in combo), this is very vulnerable even trying to make top 3 at Nationals. I'd say she has some work to do before her first GP, to get all this cleaned up, polished and re-sparkling, and get momentum going.

Why the doom and gloom? Ashley deservedly beat Karen here and didn't even skate her best (nor should she have...its barely October in the Olympic season). Go back and watch her old Moulin Rouge programs - there are tweaks (particularly in the first section). Now, I'm not sure if I like them as compared to the previous versions of Moulin Rouge, but they're there. Hard to tell which jumps are UR (or not) based on the fancams, but its not like any of the US ladies have come out of the gates this season guns blazing (see both Mirai AND Karen at the US Challenger event and the number of URs they had there). As for Ashley's lutz edge - I still say its on a flat edge and unless judges start punishing the World Champion herself more regularly (and they did at least at the recent Challenger event), Ashley's does not deserved to be called a flutz. Ashely had a good debut and she's only going to improve from here. Considering that she beat Karen - whose had multiple competitions this year already - on her first outing, I think Ashley is more than on track.
 

chapis

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Her Moulin Rouge lost the wow factor. And what was the point of this competition for her? she did not have new choreography or costume. Those judges were international?, because otherwise those scores are not very reliable. I see why Rafael did not bother to attend this competition.
 

AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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Why the doom and gloom? Ashley deservedly beat Karen here and didn't even skate her best (nor should she have...its barely October in the Olympic season). Go back and watch her old Moulin Rouge programs - there are tweaks (particularly in the first section). Now, I'm not sure if I like them as compared to the previous versions of Moulin Rouge, but they're there. Hard to tell which jumps are UR (or not) based on the fancams, but its not like any of the US ladies have come out of the gates this season guns blazing (see both Mirai AND Karen at the US Challenger event and the number of URs they had there). As for Ashley's lutz edge - I still say its on a flat edge and unless judges start punishing the World Champion herself more regularly (and they did at least at the recent Challenger event), Ashley's does not deserved to be called a flutz. Ashely had a good debut and she's only going to improve from here. Considering that she beat Karen - whose had multiple competitions this year already - on her first outing, I think Ashley is more than on track.

For sure,

I mean for me when I watched the program I realized that I have the whole thing memorized. I knew exactly what element was coming up and recognized the choreography. I do hope she freshens up the choreo and the look of the program.

But if people think Ash may not medal based on this performance than count Karen out too, for Ash Beat Karen here.....

But I will give Ash the benefit of the doubt for this season. I do wish she wasnt rolling out 100% recycled programs (especially for an Oly year who wants to do rehashes for both programs? Id take this opportunity to debut some smoking new programs) but I do think she has the potential to deliver points.
 

kwanatic

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I'm disappointed in her decision to return to Moulin Rouge for the third time in 4 years. I love the program (both in 2015 and 2016) but I think she's gone as far as she's going to go with this one. As a result it does seem a little stale and :yawn: this time around. I expect she'll have a new dress by the GP (which might help, as superficial as that sounds) but the program needs an overhaul. New choreography or even a slightly different music edit would have freshened it up. Honestly I'd have preferred to see her try to revamp Black Swan or do something completely different. I understand her reasoning for going for what she knows but I'm not happy with it.

As for the competition, she looked okay to me. Ashley has never been the fastest skater, biggest jumper, best spinner, etc. but she knows how to get the job done when she needs to. Her 3F-3T looked solid and the other jumps were pretty good for it to be the beginning of October. I fully expect a clean Karen to beat Ashley (as she should IMO) but Karen had bigger errors here so Ashley squeezed out the win. Of course she's going to need a lot more to get by this season on the GP but for this to be her first time out, I say good job.

I'm not confident any of the US women can medal on the GP this year. I'd be shocked to see anyone place higher than 3rd at an event this season. The field was already deep and with the two Canadians expected to medal plus the additions to the Japanese and Russian line ups, there isn't much room on the podium for the US women to get lucky. I hope they do but the odds are stacked a little higher against them this season.
 

Willin

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This competition was at Paramount iceland, it is Olympic size. I've competed there a few times and i dont really like the ice surface. Its a very old rink where the first Zamboni was. I love the red dress but thinking she may get a new one.
I didn't realize Paramount was full Olympic size. I'd thought it was smaller (Maybe I'm thinking of another rink?). I did hear about the ice quality though (from someone that trains there full time). The ice there is apparently very soft and not well maintained, which makes you skate a lot slower and makes everything require more effort/energy. I'd heard a couple years back that they were going to redo it, but if they haven't redone it that may be why Ashley looks slow. Some of the skaters in LA train there on Sundays due to limited freestyle elsewhere, but idk if Ashley's in that group.
Personally, I like skating on soft and terrible ice because it makes everything much easier when I get to competition ice (and ups my stamina), but if you're not used it, your performance can be affected. I've seen some younger skaters throw fits because they felt like they did a bad job competing on soft ice.
 

artsciboy

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I like Karen Chen well enough - but I'm baffled why people are pitching her as the second coming of Michelle Kwan. The only thing she has going for her is her speed - which is great and all - but her posture needs work. She gets her levels (most of the time), but others are better spinners (e.g., Nagasu). Her jumps/technical content are on par with others, prone to underrotations and edge calls (hey, like Wagner). She's competent as a performer but others are more convincing and less prone to false/awkward moments on the ice (e.g., Wagner). Karen has had some good performances, but she's also wildly inconsistent. Yes, she "saved" US' 3 spots for Olympics and Worlds this season, but Helsinki Worlds was a lackluster event for the ladies - I mean great that Karen finished 4th and all, but her performance and scores were in and around Rita Hongo circa 2016 Worlds' territory (and the latter placed 8th and arguably made more of an impact). Karen's good, but she is not above and beyond all of the other ladies in the US when clean. I still think that Ashley - if she is on - has the better package overall.
 

Coco

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I wonder how people's feelings about Ashley bringing her program back are shaping their perception of the YouTube video that was posted. I did see a few tweaks and the steps are different as well. And hey! At least you finished on the music this time!
 

Frida80

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I like Karen Chen well enough - but I'm baffled why people are pitching her as the second coming of Michelle Kwan. The only thing she has going for her is her speed - which is great and all - but her posture needs work. She gets her levels (most of the time), but others are better spinners (e.g., Nagasu). Her jumps/technical content are on par with others, prone to underrotations and edge calls (hey, like Wagner). She's competent as a performer but others are more convincing and less prone to false/awkward moments on the ice (e.g., Wagner). Karen has had some good performances, but she's also wildly inconsistent. Yes, she "saved" US' 3 spots for Olympics and Worlds this season, but Helsinki Worlds was a lackluster event for the ladies - I mean great that Karen finished 4th and all, but her performance and scores were in and around Rita Hongo circa 2016 Worlds' territory (and the latter placed 8th and arguably made more of an impact). Karen's good, but she is not above and beyond all of the other ladies in the US when clean. I still think that Ashley - if she is on - has the better package overall.


No one is saying she is the next Michelle Kwan. The only people that have made that comparison are ignorant YouTube commenters that say every slightly artistic Asian skater is the next Michelle Kwan. I see comments like that under Marin's video. It's very irritating. Mariah is being compared to Sasha Cohen and Nancy Kerrigan because she looks like them. And let's not forget people calling both Eunsoo and Young Yu the next Yuna Kim. People are quite annoying sometimes.

I was just thinking how different Karen is to Michelle. Their styles are so different. Michelle was such a light and lyrical skater and Karen prefers bold and dynamic music. Aside from the spirals, there is nothing similar about them.

That said, Karen is looking much stronger this season. This competition was an improvement over US Classic. It looks like she's changing her 3Lz technique so she can get her combo more consistent. If she can get some consistency, she should be solid for the team.

With Ashley, I've memorized her LP and noticed some changes. Like some of her awesome transitions are missing. I think she's going to replace them with other transitions to make it feel different. But I agree, this felt stale. Mostly because I've seen this program at it's best, and it's not there yet. And I wasn't a fan of the red dress, so hope she changes it to something else. But beating Kaetlyn is a massive task, considering how good her jumps are. I hope she can bring the right amount of freshness pared with some strong jumps at SC.
 

jenny12

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Very nice from Ashley. I'm still pretty disappointed in Karen's program this year. Still looks like all she does is skate around. I know Ashley doesn't have the most transitions in the world, but her program looks like an actual program. Karen just doesn't do anything aside from jump, spins, and spirals in her program. I do like Karen, but this program just isn't what it should be for someone who was National Champion last season.
 
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