U.S. Ladies [#19]: Do You Know the Way to San Jose?

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Willin said:
@Spun Silver I mean, her inconsistency didn't stop them from marketing her as US Lady #1 going into worlds last year, even after she bombed at 4CC
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Yeah, but now she’s accumulated even more inconsistency. The pattern is not triumphant, for now at least. Ashley is the one with the slew of medals. Also, the time between Nats and Worlds is short -I’m sure the decision to market her as no.1 was made before 4CCs.
 
Do we really need to worry about American no. 1? Ashley has all the endorsements and attention right now and even if she places third at Nationals that won’t change. I hate to think that whoever wins Nationals should be denied any attention just because she may not be Ashley, and it goes along with people’s ideas of this sport playing favorites. Anyway, what does being put forth as America’s no. 1 mean anyway? We’ve seen one domestic competition’s rankings being upended at the next competition (in all sports) just because it’s sport and people perform differently.
 
Spun Silver said:
I hope Karen skates well enough to go too, but at the point it’s hard to see her being sent as US no. 1. She is just way too high risk. Unless Karen suddenly turns her season around, if Ashley makes it to the Olympics at all, she’s earned the right to go as US no. 1 and that is how the media and the international judges will see her, IMO.

Karen is wonderful but very frustrating. It is like being a Sasha fan all over again, but times 10. Or 100. If she goes, it will be as the brilliant but inconsistent youngster who represents the future.
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Nonsense. It will be a brilliant but inconsistent youngster who represents the present. She is less high risk now than she was last season. Now, she has a fourth place finish from Worlds on her resume. How many people thought she would snag that last season? If she does the job, she'll get the marks. If she doesn't, she won't.

Spun Silver said:
Yeah, but now she’s accumulated even more inconsistency.
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Again, nonsense. Karen's ratio of inconsistency versus consistency is essentially the same. It's just that people get all hyped up and excited and try to convince themselves that athletes will suddenly transform and meet their own expectations. Well, she surpassed mine. She put out two strong competitions and proved she could compete with the top five in the World. Karen isn't a good candidate for the team event. But she is a good candidate for the individual one. She will have to get the job done at Nationals.
 
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Dobre said:
Nonsense. It will be a brilliant but inconsistent youngster who represents the present. She is less high risk now than she was last season. Now, she has a fourth place finish from Worlds on her resume. How many people thought she would snag that last season? If she does the job, she'll get the marks. If she doesn't, she won't.



Again, nonsense. Karen's ratio of inconsistency versus consistency is essentially the same. It's just that people get all hyped up and excited and try to convince themselves that athletes will suddenly transform and meet their own expectations. Well, she surpassed mine. She put out two strong competitions and proved she could compete with the top five in the World. Karen isn't a good candidate for the team event. But she is a good candidate for the individual one. She will have to get the job done at Nationals.
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I think you misunderstood my post. I am a fan of Karen’s and well aware of her highs and lows. My post had to do with who would be seen as US no. 1 between Karen and Ashley, emphasis on *seen.* I know more about media than judging so I was thinking about media narratives which are highly simplistic. Karen and Ashley both have a lot riding on SA and Nats, and if Ashley comes out on top, there’s no way Karen will be perceived as the US leading lady. That has nothing to do with how she might actually perform at the Olympics. It could be a replay of 2010. Mirai was the future. Then suddenly: Could the future be here? And the future IS here!
 
As long as Ashley medals at SA (and maybe even make GPF), her spot for the Olys should be safe. Safe as in she will obtain good enough PCS (and beneficial calls) at Nationals to give her a comfortable cushion to make top 3 without controversy and can avoid the 2014 situation. Ashley has been getting 8s and 9s internationally so no one will challenge her getting 9s at Nationals.

I am struggling to remember the last time the US sent more than 1 break-through 'newbie' to the Olympics who did not go to the previous Worlds, when they had the option. In 2014, it was Polina; In 2010 it was Mirai; In 2006 it was Kimmie and Emily but they had no choice since Michelle withdrew and Jennifer retired; In 2002 it was Sasha; In 1998 all three went to 1997 Worlds; In 1994 they sent the veterans; In 1992 they sent the reigning Worlds podium; In 1988 all 3 went to 1987 Worlds... Esp now that there is a team event, they need someone with established PCS.

Here is everyone's rough PCS range this season - since everyone plans 7 triples and 2 2axels (except Mirai with 8 triples and 1 2axel), the scoring potential really lies in PCS.

Mirai: high 7s to low 8s
Mariah: low to high 7s
Ashley: low to high 8s
Courtney: low to high 7s
Karen: low to high 7s
Tennell: mid to high 7s at Challenger
 
I do not support artificially inflating PCS marks to push Wagner into the top 3 independent of her skating quality. Frankly it would be insulting to her (never mind rest of field) as I think she is perfectly capable of placing in the top 3 on her own merit. If the pressure gets to her, then it gets to her and she should be marked accordingly, like in 2014.

If USFS wants Wagner on the team *that* badly, then either mark her fairly and name her to the team anyway, or announce her candidacy before Nationals and then let the chips fall. The latter option might be if she WINS SA AND GPF.
 
AngieNikodinovLove said:
lol, I didn't?

I guess you don't like the fact that I wore green today?

makes about as much sense as what you said.

go settle in for Housewives. Nene gonna bring it.
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I don't care what you wear. And I hate to tell you this, but your retort of choice about the housewives isn't working because I've never watched one of the shows in my life. This board is all the reality drama I need in my life


Butyou did make me laugh so thanks!
 
RD said:
It’ll ultimately depend on how Wagner does at SA and whether she can qualify for GPF, but *so far* I think the argument for her over Nagasu is a bit weaker this time than it was back in 2014.
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Not only is Wagner's position weaker, but Nagasu's position is stronger. She, too, has a body of work now. Nagasu medaled at 4CC last season and skated better in the post-season than Wagner did. Nagasu's current season best score is better than Wagner's. Frankly, if Nagasu finished 3rd and Wagner 4th, I wouldn't be surprised if the silver medalist got the boot. Kicking Nagasu off for Wagner a second time would be a PR nightmare.
 
her grace said:
Not only is Wagner's position weaker, but Nagasu's position is stronger. She, too, has a body of work now. Nagasu medaled at 4CC last season and skated better in the post-season than Wagner did. Nagasu's current season best score is better than Wagner's. Frankly, if Nagasu finished 3rd and Wagner 4th, I wouldn't be surprised if the silver medalist got the boot. Kicking Nagasu off for Wagner a second time would be a PR nightmare.
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My theory is Ashley either gets held up to 3rd or she free falls to 5th or so. And I think it's possible they could just let her drop. Yes, she has the endorsements, but that money is going to Ashley not USFSA so are they motivated to help her? And I don't think she has the fan following someone like Kwan did to protect her.

I like Ashley. I admire her honesty and willingness to touch subjects USFSA would like to hide in a closet, but... I am not sure they are as in love with her as we think.
 
RD said:
I do not support artificially inflating PCS marks to push Wagner into the top 3 independent of her skating quality. Frankly it would be insulting to her (never mind rest of field) as I think she is perfectly capable of placing in the top 3 on her own merit. If the pressure gets to her, then it gets to her and she should be marked accordingly, like in 2014.

If USFS wants Wagner on the team *that* badly, then either mark her fairly and name her to the team anyway, or announce her candidacy before Nationals and then let the chips fall. The latter option might be if she WINS SA AND GPF.
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I don't support that either but I do feel it will be arranged.

From PR angle, I think they will love to promote the whole Ashley and Adam friendship thing.

Let's face it. I know this doesn't qualify for body of work considerations but is relevant for consistency considerations. Ashley is still the only Worlds medalist in US ladies in the past 10 years and she did it just 2 years ago. No other current US lady has medaled in every single GP season this entire quad (she actually started her streak in the 2009-2010 season).

If it comes to that, I think it will be easy to justify sending Ashley over basically anyone in the US (if they want to). Conversely, will it be as easy to justify NOT sending Ashley in favour of anyone (but Karen) based on Nationals placement alone?
 
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flyingsit said:
Wagner is going unless she completely crashes and burns. She is in so many of the Olympic promos that they're building her up (along with Nathan Chen) as THE US figure skater to watch.
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Just as Kwan, Lipinsky and Bobek were shoo-ins as the three US ladies going to the 1998 Olympics! As Tonia Kwiatkowsky famously declared in Kiss n' Cry after getting lower-than-expected scores and not making the team: "Well, they got the three who are on the Campbell's soup cans." In 2017/18, Ashley is our "Campbell's Soup Gal"...the one with special marketing points.
 
Marco said:
I don't support that either but I do feel it will be arranged.

From PR angle, I think they will love to promote the whole Ashley and Adam friendship thing.

Let's face it. I know this doesn't qualify for body of work considerations but is relevant for consistency considerations. Ashley is still the only Worlds medalist in US ladies in the past 10 years and she did it just 2 years ago. No other current US lady has medaled in every single GP season this entire quad (she actually started her streak in the 2009-2010 season).

If it comes to that, I think it will be easy to justify sending Ashley over basically anyone in the US (if they want to). Conversely, will it be as easy to justify NOT sending Ashley in favour of anyone (but Karen) based on Nationals placement alone?
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I disagree on the Adam angle. I don't think he's going to get the promo regardless of where he finishes. The man USFSA and NBC will be pushing in Nathan.

Now.... I can see Ashley, Nathan and their joint coach as a selling point. However, Raf doesn't seem into PR :)
 
Carolla5501 said:
My theory is Ashley either gets held up to 3rd or she free falls to 5th or so. And I think it's possible they could just let her drop. Yes, she has the endorsements, but that money is going to Ashley not USFSA so are they motivated to help her?
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In 2014, USFS and Wagner shared a sponsor (Hilton).

I don’t know if that is the case this year.
 
Based on her current scores, and the fact that UR's will be judged less harshly at nats, I would bet Ashley finishes easily in the top 3. She will sell the hell out of her programs and PCS scores will follow.
 
chattila said:
Just as Kwan, Lipinsky and Bobek were shoo-ins as the three US ladies going to the 1998 Olympics! As Tonia Kwiatkowsky famously declared in Kiss n' Cry after getting lower-than-expected scores and not making the team: "Well, they got the three who are on the Campbell's soup cans." In 2017/18, Ashley is our "Campbell's Soup Gal"...the one with special marketing points.
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Ohhhhhhh, really? I WAS GLUED to those Nats..... How did I miss Tonia saying this??????
 
alchemy void said:
I really think a Tennell/Wagner/Nagasu Olympics team is by far the most likely scenario.

Chen has a lot to do before Nationals, coming off a national championship and 4th at Worlds, she has had a disasterous autumn season so far.
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yeah, thats what Ive been thinking for a few weeks too.

Karen has been the most underperforming so far. She'd have to slay SkAm and Nats to persuade me.
 
I doubt they would drop Nagasu again—that would be bad PR, and Nagasu has done well, medaling at 4CCs 2 years in a row & finishing a respectable top 10 at worlds 2016. Wagner, though consistent in her way, tightens up under certain types of pressure, & Oly year nationals is not her competition. Whether she gets a spot if she’s 4th or 5th depends on the podium. Chen/Nagasu/Zhang? Zhang gets booted. Chen/Nagasu/Tennell? If Tennell scores 130 at SkAm & beats Wagner there, that’s our team. And we still have to see if Gold manages to come back, or if Edmunds makes big strides, or how Tennell’s PCS (and competition nerves) hold up on the GP.

It’s pretty wild that we ended up with 3 spots this year & there are no clear locks for top 3 at nationals—most nail-bitingly tense long program ever?
 
Its funny that we talk of Chen having a "disastrous" season and not Ashley when the seasons' best scores are this:

30 183.94 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2017 29.10.2017
31 183.85 Angela WANG USA ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2017 08.10.2017
32 183.00 Nana ARAKI JPN ISU JGP Minsk Arena Cup 2017 22.09.2017
33 182.57 Courtney HICKS USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2017 29.10.2017
34 182.32 Karen CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 16.09.2017

I don't take first GP events all that seriously especially when many skaters switched programs right beforehand...let us calm down and see how Skate America pans out.
 
chattila said:
Just as Kwan, Lipinsky and Bobek were shoo-ins as the three US ladies going to the 1998 Olympics! As Tonia Kwiatkowsky famously declared in Kiss n' Cry after getting lower-than-expected scores and not making the team: "Well, they got the three who are on the Campbell's soup cans." In 2017/18, Ashley is our "Campbell's Soup Gal"...the one with special marketing points.
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I was curious about this statement. I just watched Kwiatkowski and I didn't hear her say this in the Kiss n Cry in 1998. She didn't love her short program required scores, but seemed to like her presentation scores. In the long program, she looked sad but kept saying Thank you. Was this a statement in a press conference? I know many of us were thinking Kwan, Lipinski and Bobek were shoo-ins.
 
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Clay said:
I was curious about this statement. I just watched Kwiatkowski and I didn't hear her say this in the Kiss n Cry in 1998. She didn't love her short program required scores, but seemed to like her presentation scores. In the long program, she looked sad but kept saying Thank you. Was this a statement in a press conference? I know many of us were thinking Kwan, Lipinski and Bobek were shoo-ins.
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That statement may be urban legend.
 
chattila said:
Just as Kwan, Lipinsky and Bobek were shoo-ins as the three US ladies going to the 1998 Olympics! As Tonia Kwiatkowsky famously declared in Kiss n' Cry after getting lower-than-expected scores and not making the team: "Well, they got the three who are on the Campbell's soup cans." In 2017/18, Ashley is our "Campbell's Soup Gal"...the one with special marketing points.
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Tonia giving SHADE. How did I miss that?
 
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