The Dance Hall, Part 4: To Helsinki & Back -- Seeking Rhumba Magic ...

There's a big chance for some major moves in junior dance, especially in America where McNamara/Carpenter and Parsons have been staples for so long.

I think it will be those three teams though:
Carreira & Ponomarenko
Lewis & Bye
The Greens

The speed for these three teams is stronger than the rest of the U.S. junior dance field. C&P gained a lot of experience this season. L&B were catastrophic at sectionals & struggled on the twizzles most of the season, but they laid it down at Nationals and are a more mature & experienced team than most of the U.S. junior dance field. They medaled on the JGP and at the Youth Olympics. While the Greens laid it down pretty much everywhere except the SD at Nationals. It's always a big challenge moving up into international competition, but their speed & tough lifts make them fit right in among the more experienced teams. Defeated L&B twice, Lajoie & Lagha once, and split placements with C&P once. (Also won advanced novices at the NRW Trophy and the Bavarian Open, the latter with an invalid element). Gropman & Somerville scored very close to the Greens at Nationals, but that was with G&G swallowing a fall.

Note: It's interesting that Haines & Kozuta, the novice gold medalists, were not listed in the international selection pool, while the novice silver medalists were listed the season before. But Gunter & Wein were the lowest finishers of the ISP athletes at Junior Nationals, and I do think it is wise to get them back out on the JGP. H&K were a brand new team, together less than a year, and he was already 18. (Pretty impressive, though, to win Eastern sectionals and a novice title with only a few months of experience together). Assuming they are still together, I would guess both they and the Elders would be likely to move up to juniors domestically.

Isabella Amoia and Luca Becker are now listed as a team on the Wheaton site, and it should be worth watching to see where they fit in.
 
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I am not surprised at all that Haines & Kozuta are not on ISP. This means USFSA has some common sense when they pick teams to represent USA.
 
I am not surprised at all that Haines & Kozuta are not on ISP.
Well, H/K (and other junior teams) could still be added to the ISP depending on how they perform in summer competitions. Being in the ISP does not guarantee an international assignment, however.
 
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Well, H/K (and other junior teams) could still be added to the ISP depending on how they perform in summer competitions.

Which makes perfect sense for such a new team. Beyond the athletes who competed on the JGP last season, the U.S. has a lot of relatively new junior partnerships that swapped placements last season.
 
For those interested, Sarah Rasher posted her list of personal favorite programs of the season: http://thefinersports.com/2017/05/10-great-ice-dance-performances-of-2016-17/


I do agree that the US team for Junior Worlds will most likely be Carreira/Ponomarenko, Lewis/Bye, and the Greens, but there's still a chance for a young and/or new team such as Gunter/Wein, Gropman/Somerville, or Efimova/Petrov to make a big improvement over the summer and fight for a spot. The field is more open than its been in years, and everyone should try to take this as their chance.
 
Re-posting from the OES news thread in GSD:
https://instagram.com/p/BS66TnRF63q/

It seems Tran/Ambrulevicius have retired.
They competed at 3 Europeans and one Worlds (Helsinki) together: http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00034774.htm

ETA: It sounds like Taylor Tran has retired from her message - maybe Saulius A. hopes to continue?

From the Japanese news thread in GSD last week:
Emi Hirai of Hirai/[Marien] De La Asuncion announced her retirement. According to her post it sounds Marien also retired. Best wishes for her(their?) second life.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BTzJNLblA2s/
They competed at five 4CC and six JPN Nationals together: http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00014049.htm

ETA #2 - Marien's message in French and English on May 8th: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...980051.1073741825.670380050&type=3&permPage=1
 
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Speaking of Japanese dance teams, I've been wondering about Muramoto/Reed and why they didn't score better this year at their events. The season before, they seemed to start off well; and I thought they looked not bad at Skate America. Any thoughts on this? I never had time to sit down and analyze their protocols or anything.
 
Speaking of Japanese dance teams, I've been wondering about Muramoto/Reed and why they didn't score better this year at their events. The season before, they seemed to start off well; and I thought they looked not bad at Skate America. Any thoughts on this? I never had time to sit down and analyze their protocols or anything.

I was wondering the same thing. People seemed excited about them last season, and they seemed to be looking pretty good at Skate America. I actually liked their programs, and I like her a lot. Canton really needs to address the inconsistent level issues.
 
So when are some of the American dance teams going to give us some studio dancing to go up against P/C and V/M?

I have to say, seeing some of the teams dance off the ice is really interesting and clarifying. Did the Shibs post some off-ice dance videos when they were working on their hip hop SD?
 
So when are some of the American dance teams going to give us some studio dancing to go up against P/C and V/M?

I have to say, seeing some of the teams dance off the ice is really interesting and clarifying. Did the Shibs post some off-ice dance videos when they were working on their hip hop SD?

Very briefly in their 2016 retrospective vlog:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2inMxxDvrg&feature=youtu.be&t=72

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2inMxxDvrg&feature=youtu.be&t=98
 
Speaking of Japanese dance teams, I've been wondering about Muramoto/Reed and why they didn't score better this year at their events. The season before, they seemed to start off well; and I thought they looked not bad at Skate America. Any thoughts on this? I never had time to sit down and analyze their protocols or anything.

OK, I think it's a really good question so I went back to look through the results. And having done so, here's what I honestly think. I think it's so tight down in the lower dance ranks that anything can happen between the teams currently ranked between #16 (Wang & Liu) and #23 (Muramoto & Reed). M&R hit the absolute top of that range at Worlds last season & the absolute bottom of it this season at Worlds. They've been all over the map in the meantime, and their protocols & placements are listed below.

Muramoto & Reed earned level 3 on their blues pattern all season until WTT. So that cost them a couple points in the SD all year and explains why they were never able to earn more than two level 4's in the short, despite repeatedly earning 5 level fours in their FD. When all is said and done, however, Muramoto & Reed finished 24th at Worlds because they blew the twizzles in the short dance and swallowed a level one on that element. They lost over four points on it alone. Their component mark is within half a point of Smart & Diaz who were in 16th after the SD and swallowed their own level one twizzle sequence in the free.

If M&R had earned those four points, they'd have been sitting right behind Wang and Liu after the short. Might have lost to W&L and Agafanova & Ucar anyway; but with a solid skate, that would have been it, I think. For perspective, both W&L and A&U had two level two footwork sequences in the FD and A&U had a level three in it as well. Interestingly, M&R defeated A&U head-to-head three times this season: Dance Chicago, U.S. Classic, Skate America. All of the teams in this competitive range are struggling with the footwork sequences so while that would improve M&R's chances, it isn't the difference among these particular teams.

Here are Muramoto & Reed's levels from this season:

Dance Chicago: They debuted at Dance Chicago, which supposedly did publish protocols; but they seem to have been taken down. M&R finished 3rd there with an SD score of 54.9 and an FD score of 85.56. They finished behind Hawayek & Baker and Thomas & Eaton; however, three spots above Agafanova & Ucar during the SD before A&U pulled out.

U.S. Classic: Despite a tough caller, Muramoto & Reed actually did better than the entire field on the levels here.
Short Dance: 3, 3, 3, 3, 4 (This, fyi, was three points higher in base value than Hubbell & Donahue, who won)
Free Dance: 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2 (Still two points higher in base value than Hubbell & Donahue)
M&R finished second here, above Smart & Diaz, Min & Gamelin, and Agafanova & Ucar.

Skate America:
Short Dance: 4, 3, 2, 2, 2 (Chris blew the twizzles, and he just cannot do this). Last in the SD. This one hurt.
Free Dance: 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2. 8th in the FD. Ahead of Agafanova & Ucar and Min & Gamelin. Tied on the base value with Ilinykh & Zhiganshin and Pogrebinsky & Benoit.

NHK Trophy:
Withdrew due to injury. I don't remember what the injury was and it didn't take them out for too long, but it didn't do them any favors this season.

Mentor Torun Cup:
Short Dance: 4, 3, 3, 2, 2 (3rd in the SD behind Kaliszek & Spodiriev and Hurtado & Khaliavin)
Free Dance: 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2 (2nd in the FD) Tied the leaders, Kaliszek & Spodiriev, on the base value.

Four Continents:
Short Dance: 3, 3, 3, 2, 2 (lost a level on the twizzles). Lost the base value by three points to Min & Gamelin and 2 points to Wang & Liu. Ironically, tied Gilles & Poirier for BV with her fall.
Free Dance: 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 1 (1 on the twizzles. This killed M&R. Only the 14th BV here).

Asian Games:

Short Dance: 4, 4, 3, 3, 3
Free Dance: 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2. (Second behind Wang & Liu in both dances. The Koreans didn't compete).

Worlds:
Short Dance: 4, 3, 3, 2, 1 (blew the twizzles--lost @ four points on that element alone).

World Team Trophy:

Short Dance: 4, 4, 4, 2, 2 (higher levels than Wang & Liu)
Free Dance: 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3 (same levels as Wang & Liu, higher than Lauriault & Le Gac)
 
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So when are some of the American dance teams going to give us some studio dancing to go up against P/C and V/M?

I have to say, seeing some of the teams dance off the ice is really interesting and clarifying. Did the Shibs post some off-ice dance videos when they were working on their hip hop SD?

I would love to see them dancing more off the ice. There are people who surprise you, for example Meryl, I do not enjoy her dancing on the ice very much, but on the floor she is great.
 
Thank you @Dobre for that analysis of Muramoto/Reed's season! So basically, it sounds like their season wasn't really as bad as I thought, but just a few crucial mistakes really hurt them at Skate America, 4CCs, and Worlds.

I think you're right that the competition for spots 15-25 or so on the World level is nearly as intense as the battle for spots 3-10.

With so much parity, I almost feel like the ISU needs to introduce some new, additional, or harder technical elements so that the field can start to differentiate and loosen up a bit. But I have no idea what those elements would be, or if that's feasible?? ....
 
Do you think changing it from a -3 to +3 GOE range to a -5 to +5 GOE range would help? I feel like the callers have all the power in determining results now and I sort of wish that could change somewhat. I also think because of that, the fear of losing levels has taken away a lot of the dance from the programs.
 
Do you think changing it from a -3 to +3 GOE range to a -5 to +5 GOE range would help? I feel like the callers have all the power in determining results now and I sort of wish that could change somewhat. I also think because of that, the fear of losing levels has taken away a lot of the dance from the programs.

I agree on both points. I don't like that the callers are basically controlling the outcome right now. There are many problems with that, IMO.

I'm not sure that -5 to +5 will fix the situation. Right now in pairs, at least, there is often inconsistency in how judges score GOE--except at the top, where the problem can be general GOE inflation. My concern is that -5 to +5 could just exacerbate these trends. Scores for V/M, P/C, Med, Hanyu could become even more untouchable, whereas I wonder if scores in the mid-range will become even more unpredictable from event to event. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.
 
For the sake of inquiry, here are the current GOE-only results/rankings from Worlds. I cannot say this exercise helped clarify my understanding of where all these teams stand, LOL. If anything, they are even more tangled now!

Note: I did all these calculations on a not-so-healthy calculator. Some of them could certainly be wrong.

Total GOE from Worlds:

1. P&C 27.22 Papadakis & Cizeron (win the overall GOE because V&M took a sufficient GOE hit on the trip in the FD footwork. All but one judge took something from the element, though the controller did not).

2. V&M 25.72 Virtue & Moir (see above)

3. Shibs 23.14 The Shibutanis (finished 3rd in GOE in both dances)

4. B&S 21.92 Bobrova & Soloviev (finish 6th on GOE in the short, but fourth overall & in the free)

5. H&D 21.12 Hubbell & Donohue (Interestingly, there is no negative GOE for a fall/invalid element because there is no GOE for it at all. They finish 5th on GOE in the short & 7th in the free, but remain 5th in it overall)

6. C&B 21.02 Chock & Bates (There is negative GOE for blowing your twizzles and earning a level one. C&B finish 4th on GOE in the SD and 8th on it in the FD, dropping overall to H&D on it by 0.1 overall)

7. C&L 20.7 Cappellini & Lanotte (finish 8th on GOE in the short and 5th in the free, which lands them 7th)

8. W&P 20.09 Weaver & Poje (Although W&P finished fourth overall, they were actually 6th in both portions of competition. In reverse fashion, they finished 7th on GOE in the SD, 6th in the free, and wind up 8th overall here).

9. G&P 18.49 Gilles & Poirier (Tie with C&L for 8th on GOE in the short, drop below S&B in the free, and wind up 9th on GOE overall)

10. S&B 18.02 Stepanova & Bukin (Tenth in the short, 9th in the free)

11. T&T 14.09 Tobias & Tkachenko (Eleventh in the short, twelfth in the free, but come out ahead in 11th on GOE because G&F took a hit on GOE in the SD)

12. G&F 13.62 Guignard & Fabbri (Thirteenth on GOE in the short, eleventh in the free, wind up 12th overall)

13. FB&S 12.88 Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson (Twelfth in the short, thirteenth in the free with negatives on the messy twizzles)

14. W&L 10.29 Wang & Liu (On GOE, W&L come out ahead of two teams they lost to at worlds, finished 17th on GOE in the SD, but 14th in the free & overall).

15. N&N 9.98 Nazarova & Nikitin (16th in the SD, 16th in the free, 15th overall)

16. K&S 9.61 Kaliszek & Spodiriev (19th in the SD, 15th in the free)

17. A&U 8.94 Agafanova & Ucar (15th in the SD, 18th in the free)

18. S&D 8.47 Smart & Diaz (18th in the SD, 17th in the free with negatives for the twizzles--because we live in backwards world? Or because my calculator is bad? Or because so much of the competition was cut?)

19. L&P 6.19 Lorenz & Polizoakis (21st on GOE in the SD, 19th in the FD)

20. M&G 5.67 Min & Gamelin (22nd in GOE in the SD, 20th in the FD with negatives for the fall on their twizzles)

(Note-Lauriault & Le Gac were 14th on GOE in the SD, but missed the cut & did not compete in the free. Fear & Gibson were 20th on GOE in the SD and likewise missed the cut)

FYI, Muramoto & Reed, whom we were discussing earlier, finished 23rd on GOE in the short with negative GOE on the twizzles. Exactly the same place they finished in the real competition. There are also 7 teams from the top 20 with GOE that reflects their final standings: The Shibs, Stepanova & Bukin, Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson, Agafanova & Ucar, Smart & Diaz, Lorenz & Polizoakis, and Min & Gamelin. However, if Lauriault & Le Gac and Fear & Gibson, etc. had not been cut after the SD, those final four placements might not have lined up so neatly.


Do you think changing it from a -3 to +3 GOE range to a -5 to +5 GOE range would help? I feel like the callers have all the power in determining results now and I sort of wish that could change somewhat. I also think because of that, the fear of losing levels has taken away a lot of the dance from the programs.

Since GOE reflects only the execution of the elements, I think it will only strengthen their importance.
 
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For the sake of inquiry, here are the current GOE-only results/rankings from Worlds. I cannot say this exercise helped clarify my understanding of where all these teams stand, LOL. If anything, they are even more tangled now!

Note: I did all these calculations on a not-so-healthy calculator. Some of them could certainly be wrong.

Total GOE from Worlds:

1. P&C 27.22 Papadakis & Cizeron (win the overall GOE because V&M took a sufficient GOE hit on the trip in the FD footwork. All but one judge took something from the element, though the controller did not).

2. V&M 25.72 Virtue & Moir (see above)

3. Shibs 23.14 The Shibutanis (finished 3rd in GOE in both dances)

4. B&S 21.92 Bobrova & Soloviev (finish 6th on GOE in the short, but fourth overall & in the free)

5. H&D 21.12 Hubbell & Donohue (Interestingly, there is no negative GOE for a fall/invalid element because there is no GOE for it at all. They finish 5th on GOE in the short & 7th in the free, but remain 5th in it overall)

6. C&B 21.02 Chock & Bates (There is negative GOE for blowing your twizzles and earning a level one. C&B finish 4th on GOE in the SD and 8th on it in the FD, dropping overall to H&D on it by 0.1 overall)

7. C&L 20.7 Cappellini & Lanotte (finish 8th on GOE in the short and 5th in the free, which lands them 7th)

8. W&P 20.09 Weaver & Poje (Although W&P finished fourth overall, they were actually 6th in both portions of competition. In reverse fashion, they finished 7th on GOE in the SD, 6th in the free, and wind up 8th overall here).

9. G&P 18.49 Gilles & Poirier (Tie with C&L for 8th on GOE in the short, drop below S&B in the free, and wind up 9th on GOE overall)

10. S&B 18.02 Stepanova & Bukin (Tenth in the short, 9th in the free)

11. T&T 14.09 Tobias & Tkachenko (Eleventh in the short, twelfth in the free, but come out ahead in 11th on GOE because G&F took a hit on GOE in the SD)

12. G&F 13.62 Guignard & Fabbri (Thirteenth on GOE in the short, eleventh in the free, wind up 12th overall)

13. FB&S 12.88 Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson (Twelfth in the short, thirteenth in the free with negatives on the messy twizzles)

14. W&L 10.29 Wang & Liu (On GOE, W&L come out ahead of two teams they lost to at worlds, finished 17th on GOE in the SD, but 14th in the free & overall).

15. N&N 9.98 Nazarova & Nikitin (16th in the SD, 16th in the free, 15th overall)

16. K&S 9.61 Kaliszek & Spodiriev (19th in the SD, 15th in the free)

17. A&U 8.94 Agafanova & Ucar (15th in the SD, 18th in the free)

18. S&D 8.47 Smart & Diaz (18th in the SD, 17th in the free with negatives for the twizzles--because we live in backwards world? Or because my calculator is bad? Or because so much of the competition was cut?)

19. L&P 6.19 Lorenz & Polizoakis (21st on GOE in the SD, 19th in the FD)

20. M&G 5.67 Min & Gamelin (22nd in GOE in the SD, 20th in the FD with negatives for the fall on their twizzles)

(Note-Lauriault & Le Gac were 14th on GOE in the SD, but missed the cut & did not compete in the free. Fear & Gibson were 20th on GOE in the SD and likewise missed the cut)

FYI, Muramoto & Reed, whom we were discussing earlier, finished 23rd on GOE in the short with negative GOE on the twizzles. Exactly the same place they finished in the real competition. There are also 7 teams from the top 20 with GOE that reflects their final standings: The Shibs, Stepanova & Bukin, Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson, Agafanova & Ucar, Smart & Diaz, Lorenz & Polizoakis, and Min & Gamelin. However, if Lauriault & Le Gac and Fear & Gibson, etc. had not been cut after the SD, those final four placements might not have lined up so neatly.




Since GOE reflects only the execution of the elements, I think it will only strengthen their importance.
This was interesting. I think I'll do the same for PCS.

1. V/M 96.8 (1st in SD, 2nd in FD - in both programs the difference between them and the French was around 0.3)
2. P/C 96.72 (2nd in SD, 1st in FD, without the error V/M might have closed the 0.27 FD difference if it affected scores like SS, PE, or TR)
3. Shibs 92.94 (4th in the SD, 3rd in the FD)
4. C/B 92.92 (3rd in the SD, tied with B/S for 4th in the FD, finished only 0.02 back of the Shibs and they probably could have gotten slightly higher SS and PE marks without the major twizzle error)
5. B/S 92.64 (5th in the SD, tied for 4th in the FD)
6. W/P 92.12 (6th in SD and FD, behind the same 5 teams in different orders: V/M, P/C, B/S, S/S, C/B)
7. C/L 91.43 (7th for both, in the 8's for TR in both, SS in SD)
8. H/D 91.08 (even though they were 3rd overall after the SD, they were only 8th in PCS for both programs, in the 8's for SS and TR in the SD, but not the free)
9. G/P 88.9 (9th for both, only 9+ was for IN in the free)
10. S/B 87.18 (10th for both)
11. G/F 83.46 (11th for both)
12. T/T 82.04 (12th for both)
13. FB/S 78.05 (13th for both)
14. K/S 75.94 (14th in both)
15. N/N 75.27 (15th for both)
16. W/L 73.46 (17th for both)
17. S/D 73.39 (18th in the SD, 16th in the FD)
18. A/U 73.35 (16th in the SD, 18th in the FD)
19. L/P 71.67 (20th in the SD, 19th in the FD)
20. M/G 69.04 (22nd in the SD, 20th in the FD)

L/LG were 19th in PCS in the SD, but placed 21st and didn't qualify for the FD.
M/R also had higher PCS than M/G, but didn't advance.
 
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Seriously, what are her options ? Is there a mysterious young talented ID skater hidden somewhere ? And if she wants a shot at the Olys, he has to be Russian, basically she won't be able to participate.
 
Maybe Zhulin could re group Elena and Nikita for just the Olympic season and Vika could be Stanislav Morozoved for a season :shuffle:

I think Elena would be better off just calling this Olympic cycle a wash and seeing what talents become available post PyeongChang. She's young enough, and talented enough that she could still be among the top of the ice dance world if ( if :shuffle: ) she has a partnership where the best of her abilities are able to shine.

My suggestion would be for her to team up with Daniel Eaton and skate for Uzbekistan. I know the Russian fed wouldn't ever let that happen but one could hope.
 
Ilinykh was born in Kazakhstan, wouldn't that make it easier to get citizenship there than Uzbekistan?
 
Yes. I must've had Malinina on the mind or something. Kazakhstan is what I meant.
would she be able to skate for Kazakhstan right away...maybe Denis Ten would like to do dance...She seems to be able to deal with head case men and his skating is beautiful (I do not see 5 quads in his future)
 
would she be able to skate for Kazakhstan right away...maybe Denis Ten would like to do dance...She seems to be able to deal with head case men and his skating is beautiful (I do not see 5 quads in his future)

I would love to see to Denis in dance, but I think he is short for this discipline.
 

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