The Dance Hall 6: We're All Off Our Rockers 2018-2019

Bigbird

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I don't really understand why people think WeaPo will medal. If h/d didn't have that disaster skate at 4CC then they probably would have been 3rd not to mention they have G/P have been on their heels. They clearly won't beat p/c and very possibly at least one of the russian teams will beat them too. I think a top 5 finish is more realistic for them. Of course we have seen more surprising things happen in ice dance but I am not betting for them to be on the podium.
Their RD is bank and they know how to peak at worlds besides they almost won in Saitama a few years ago with one of their best FD's ever, Yo Soy Maria. I never count them out at worlds, ever. But H/D and the Russians will be gunning for that podium. S/B will have a great shot because they are in the last RD group, but I find their skating skills hideous and as the season has progressed I find both their programs wanting. S/K and H/D will also be very determined to prove that their previous performances were a fluke. So all in all everyone will be on edge.

So I believe calm and steady will win the race, in the end.
 

sharsk8s

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Why would anyone have thought Weaver & Poje would medal last year? Or finish fourth the year before? Or finish fifth the year before? Or finish third the year before? Or finish second the year before? When have Weaver & Poje ever finished in the same place one would have predicted based on their season?

(Basically, if Chock & Bates have good odds, then I don't know why Weaver & Poje wouldn't? They've both still split results basically 50% of the time over the past 5 years).
Since we are entering a new quad I don't think results of the past are taken as much into consideration (p/c's jump took place in the first year of a new quad). If you are using that philosophy w/p should definitely beat h/d, s/b, s/k, etc since they beat them for a majority of the last 4 years. Also I agree they are unpredictable at worlds, they have gotten medals when no one expected them to and they also haven't podiumed/got 3rd when everyone thought they were clear favorites for the gold. I am not saying there is no chance of them medaling, ice dance is extremely unpredictable. I just don't think they are one of the top picks for a medal if everyone skates well.
 

Dobre

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I just don't think they are one of the top picks for a medal if everyone skates well.
So . . . here's the thing. I ask myself who I think the top picks for a medal are if everyone skates well. And then I ask myself what I think the odds are that certain teams will skate well. And these two lists clash significantly.

Anyway, I would be very happy if everyone skates well. Maybe they will. But 100% clean competitions are very rare in ice dance these days. Usually teams feel the pressure & they make mistakes. Sometimes they make small mistakes. Sometimes they make big ones. Who was predicting the results for Europeans? (Somebody maybe got this one if they looked at past history instead of just paying attention to the current season's results). Who was predicting the results for 4CCs?

If everyone skates well, that will be terrific. I like to see teams that are proud of their performances. To heck with the results. But very rarely these days do we get 100% clean performances. And even if we get mostly clean performances, like we just did at Junior Worlds, the ranks can be all switched around. If the GPF results were translated to Worlds the same way the JGPF results were translated to Junior Worlds, the results would be 1. Stepanova & Bukin, 2. Guignard & Fabbri, 3. Hubbell & Donohue, 4. Zagorski & Guerreiro, and 5. Sinitsina & Katsalapov. (I don't know what the results will be at Worlds, but they won't be that;)).
 
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yurokis40

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Weaver and Poje skate well at worlds and chock and bates usually choke a worlds so all of a sudden they are world beaters , they only won 4cc because it was in their home country G&P were robbed and should have easily won, last tine worlds was in japan there was no US team on the podium, their free dances don't merit world podium seriously romeo and Juliet and Elvis , especially when the junior team that won just skated to a difficult piece called warsaw concerto.
 

sharsk8s

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c/b beat w/p at worlds in 2015 and 2016. I very much agree that it is extremely unpredictable and am in no way counting w/p 100% out of a podium finish. I personally don't think they will be top 3 but completely respect anyone who thinks otherwise. I do think that they have a good chance of being in the top 3 after the RD I just don't know if that will hold up after the FD
 

Lara111

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Why would anyone have thought Weaver & Poje would medal last year? Or finish fourth the year before? Or finish fifth the year before? Or finish third the year before? Or finish second the year before? When have Weaver & Poje ever finished in the same place one would have predicted based on their season?

(Basically, if Chock & Bates have good odds, then I don't know why Weaver & Poje wouldn't? They've both still split results basically 50% of the time over the past 5 years).
I love W&P - hope they medal - 2nd
 

vireo

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It’s hard to predict how Weaver/Poje will fare at Worlds, simply because they have competed so little this season and always on relatively friendly turf and in front of friendly panels. IIRC, they have competed three times this season, all in North America, two of the three in Canada. The tech specialist at each of the three competitions was Canadian.

I’m curious to see who is on the tech panel at Worlds. Will Wea/Po’s luck hold, or will they finally have to face a non-Canadian TS? If the latter, will it make a difference in their scores?

Also, Weaver/Poje chose to skip the grand prix. (Other teams who didn’t do a full GP season had mitigating circumstances such as injury). Will judges care? Might they be influenced by the perception that teams who exposed themselves to the rigors of a full competitive season are somehow more deserving?

It will be interesting to see how things shake out with Wea/Po.
 

Colonel Green

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It’s hard to predict how Weaver/Poje will fare at Worlds, simply because they have competed so little this season and always on relatively friendly turf and in front of friendly panels. IIRC, they have competed three times this season, all in North America, two of the three in Canada. The tech specialist at each of the three competitions was Canadian.
I wouldn’t classify 4CC as relatively friendly turf. There are many contexts where North America would be friendly terrain, but in this specific instance they were competing in what was effectively a Canada vs. USA contest being held in the USA.
 

Bigbird

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The judges will not care what you did in the first part of the season, they never do. What they want to see is what have you got now. They are expecting great performances now, if you give it you'll get the scores, if S/K for example are shaky, yet again, and I don't mean a major twizzle disaster necessarily, they will tank their PCS and GOEs. So I strongly believe it's the cool cuccumbers that have an edge. So my favourites for the top 5 are P/C, C/B, W/P, H/D and G/F in that order. It's about time that Fabbri in particular gets some love for just how sublime he's become. His tango expression is so on point!
 

chantilly

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I wasn’t expecting a podium finish unfortunately for W and P, friendly panel or not.
Their RD is fantastic true, but their FD is just OK even when skated well, and their twizzles even when performed well are usually scored lower(rightly so IMO)Also I think G and P have either beaten them in the free or come close to their scores and have the buzz.

Personally I’d have them above both Russian teams. But I think C and B have a better full package then they do this season, even though I find the last third of their FD a bit cheesy.

H and D have just OK programmes but they still have the edge skating skills and technically IMO.

If they clean up their errors, I expect a podium finish. Likely silver.

But like everyone says, who knows. But I will be surprised if no Russian team is on the podium. Despite whether I think they belong there or not.

S and K maybe deserve it despite the fact I think their FD is overwrought and their RD isnt quite right to the rules.

Anyway I do hope we have a decent rivalry for gold the next quad.

But having said that 2-10 will be where the real excitement lies.

I’m curious to see what W and P will do if they don’t do well at Worlds.
 

lauravvv

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I 100% agree. I think both american and both russian teams have some sort of momentum and could be on the podium. I am not sure if it will even be clear after the RD because all of the teams have been within the same range, it might be something like a four way tie before the FD
Or it can be a five way tie after the RD if W/P don't mess up their twizzles again, since their RD is really good (and it was scored higher than their FD at 4CC in terms of PCS). Of course, their FD is comparatively weaker.

S and K maybe deserve it despite the fact I think their FD is overwrought and their RD isnt quite right to the rules.
It seems you have the two Russian teams mixed up. S/K's RD is one of the most traditional and well liked. It's S/B who have the paso-flamenco themed RD (although currently there is no serious proof that it has been influencing judges negatively). Both teams have FDs that can be described as "overwrought", though, although I personally more or less like both.
 

chantilly

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Or it can be a five way tie after the RD if W/P don't mess up their twizzles again, since their RD is really good (and it was scored higher than their FD at 4CC in terms of PCS). Of course, their FD is comparatively weaker.

It seems you have the two Russian teams mixed up. S/K's RD is one of the most traditional and well liked. It's S/B who have the paso-flamenco themed RD (although currently there is no serious proof that it has been influencing judges negatively). Both teams have FDs that can be described as "overwrought", though, although I personally more or less like both.
Thanks. I did. I rarely get tv coverage of skating, let alone dance so I mostly get to see videos.
But I was talking about S and K’s FD. I don’t mind S and B’s but I do think S and K are better skaters over all.

But I prefer watching S and B, especially him.
 

Bigbird

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Thanks. I did. I rarely get tv coverage of skating, let alone dance so I mostly get to see videos.
But I was talking about S and K’s FD. I don’t mind S and B’s but I do think S and K are better skaters over all.

But I prefer watching S and B, especially him.
I remember B from their libertango FD from a few seasons ago and HIS skating and interpretation gave me the impression that they would be stellar this year, but alas it is what it is. The other pairs are getting much better where SS are concerned but they seem to be stagnating. It will hurt them in the future I think, her skills are just really sub par.
 

sharsk8s

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"The atmosphere at the rink in Gadbois hasn't changed much, even with Worlds preparations. Chock said that some couples have started work on next season's pattern dance, the Finnstep."

I guess this is confirmation that the pattern is finnstep
 

yurokis40

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All I know is G&P better make a move quick, Lajoie and Lagha are coming up fast for a Canadian team to win world juniors they must be amazing only 2nd time in history, I can easily see them doing a V&M or P&C and move up very fast.
 

levineismine

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"The atmosphere at the rink in Gadbois hasn't changed much, even with Worlds preparations. Chock said that some couples have started work on next season's pattern dance, the Finnstep."

I guess this is confirmation that the pattern is finnstep
I was coming here to post the same. Now that it's officially out from the skaters, I can say we'll be posting an interview with Fournier-Beaudry/Sorensen in the next couple of days where they talk a little about the finnstep decision.
 
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