Hurricane Irma

[TOADS]

While the affects of Harvey are still being felt and will be for a long, long time to come, attention has to turn to Irma which is currently churning in the south Atlantic.

The chances are slowly increasing that there will be a strike on the US. The models have been changing from day to day. Yesterday it looked like it could strike southern New England. This morning the track has shifted south and now looks like a direct hit on the Chesapeake Bay. This is going to be the trend over the next week as each model run shifts the point of landfall up and down the coast. One model has Irma actually going west and entering the Gulf of Mexico. Right now I am leaning away from that solution. In any case, landfall will sometime around Sunday September 10th.

This could be ugly.

 

[annie720]

While the affects of Harvey are still being felt and will be for a long, long time to come, attention has to turn to Irma which is currently churning in the south Atlantic.

The chances are slowly increasing that there will be a strike on the US. The models have been changing from day to day. Yesterday it looked like it could strike southern New England. This morning the track has shifted south and now looks like a direct hit on the Chesapeake Bay. This is going to be the trend over the next week as each model run shifts the point of landfall up and down the coast. One model has Irma actually going west and entering the Gulf of Mexico. Right now I am leaning away from that solution. In any case, landfall will sometime around Sunday September 10th.

This could be ugly.

Don't want to hear this. I'm flying to Baltimore this morning and not scheduled to leave until the 13th.

 

[Debbie S]

Holy crap! People in Baltimore and the Eastern Shore still remember the effects of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Isabel in 2003 when downtown streets and buildings were flooded and homes along the Bay and rivers were destroyed. We avoided the brunt of Sandy when it went north. Hoping and praying Irma stays out at sea. We're supposed to get the remnants from Harvey tomorrow and Sunday.

 

[skategal]

Oh no!! Crossing fingers this blows itself out.

 

[TOADS]

Some of the latest model data is in. Back to a New England strike later on Monday.

This thing is going to be a royal pain in the ass over the next 10 or so days.

 

[TOADS]

Rest of the models are in and they all agree in bringing Irma to north of the Bahamas by next weekend. The longest range of the models takes it to New England early Wednesday morning, the 13th.

One piece of good news is none of the models takes Irma into the Gulf.

 

[Simone411]

That's great for the Gulf, but now my prayers are for everyone in New England. Praying that it dissipates into nothing! <3

 

[TOADS]

18z model run now has Irma hitting NYC on Sunday the 10th.

What to take away from this run and all previous runs is that while the exact landfall location can't be pinned down this far out, we are getting a range along the eastern seaboard where there is a good chance Irma will come ashore.

 

[Debbie S]

^^ That explains why my NYC/NJ friends are now freaking out on FB. Ugh, I hope the storm just tracks northeast and dies at sea.

No mention of Irma on today's weather forecast. They probably don't want to cause mass panic.

 

[TOADS]

There is a consistency developing from model run to model run in bringing Irma into the NYC/ southern New England area on Sunday September 10th. Unless something changes drastically over the next several days, it's becoming increasingly likely that the Northeast is going to take a strike from Irma.

What is also disturbing that for the last day now, the models are hinting at yet another hurricane to affect New England the following weekend.

Needless to say the pattern is extremely active and this is the peak of the hurricane season.

 

[icie]

Thank you so much for sharing your insight with us.

 

[skatesindreams]

Thank you so much for sharing your insight with us.

Seconding this!

 

[BittyBug]

Right now I am leaning away from that solution.

I was reading some comments about Irma elsewhere and the author also used the term "solution" to characterize a forecast. Why are forecasts "solutions" and not "scenarios"?

 

[TOADS]

I was reading some comments about Irma elsewhere and the author also used the term "solution" to characterize a forecast. Why are forecasts "solutions" and not "scenarios"?

A lot of Meteorologists use the term solution, I have used scenarios which is actually a better description

Speaking of scenarios, the latest model offering is back to a Chesapeake Bay landfall.

 

[Debbie S]

Speaking of scenarios, the latest model offering is back to a Chesapeake Bay landfall.

 

[BittyBug]

Thank you, @FGRSK8 . This was the article I read: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...xpected-to-become-a-category-4-in-days-ahead/ . I guess it makes sense if you think of models as a series of equations, with the outcome (forecast) being the solution, but I never thought of it that way until I suddenly noticed the many references to that word in the Irma discussions.

The skies are angry. Record heat on the West coast. Massive monsoons in India. Lots of activity in the Atlantic. It seems like we are experiencing more extremes and with greater frequency.

 

[TOADS]

Latest offerings from the models have landfall further south in North Carolina very early Monday morning September 11th. Being a week a way, this will likely change, often.

 

[BittyBug]

@FGRSK8 do you have any insight into how the storm will behave after it hits land? Will it travel up the coast while retaining strength or will it's power diminish once it makes landfall?

 

[TOADS]

@FGRSK8 do you have any insight into how the storm will behave after it hits land? Will it travel up the coast while retaining strength or will it's power diminish once it makes landfall?

It will continue to move northwest towards Ohio. The problem is it could release a lot of rain in the mountains in the Ohio Valley.

 

[judiz]

Figured, husband returning to hospital in Wisconsin and best estimate has bed opening the same week the storm hits NYC and we would be flying out.

 

[Simone411]

18z model run now has Irma hitting NYC on Sunday the 10th.

What to take away from this run and all previous runs is that while the exact landfall location can't be pinned down this far out, we are getting a range along the eastern seaboard where there is a good chance Irma will come ashore.

Well that being the day of my birthday, my wish will be that it doesn't make landfall on the 10th, the 11th or any day and that it doesn't travel northwest to Ohio or any place on the map of North America.

 

[ChelleC]

It will continue to move northwest towards Ohio. The problem is it could release a lot of rain in the mountains in the Ohio Valley.

I hope you'll forgive me for hoping it tracks towards New England then.

Actually, I'd prefer it just stay out in the Atlantic.

 

[ballettmaus]

To be honest, I'm currently mostly concerned about the Caribbean Islands. Depending on strength, and how close Irma will pass, she has the potential to be very devastating. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/03/hurricane-irma-could-strike-u-s-east-coast-by-next-weekend-or-it-could-curve-out-to-sea/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-low_cwg-irma-1150am:homepage/story&utm_term=.623073874bda

The National Hurricane Center is predicting Irma to pass over or near the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, then to be near the eastern Bahamas by Friday. Beyond that, the spread in model tracks grows, but it usually does at such long lead times. Hurricane watches may be issued later Sunday for the Leeward Islands.

 

[twinsissv]

Mother Earth gave America a wondrous gift of a beautiful Solar Eclipse but now she seems to have teamed up with her buddy, Climate Change, to kick our butts! What's next? I shudder to think about it. Of course there are those who don't believe in Climate Change. They probably thought the Solar Eclipse was rigged as well.

 

[TOADS]

Irma is tracking further and further south.

All the models are now coming into agreement as far as what happens this weekend and it is not good.

Irma could come into Florida around Miami and run the entire peninsula to Georgia. This will not be a good thing...at all.

 

[Lara]

Not looking good for Puerto Rico the further south Irma goes. Just how bad a hit is it projected to be and is the wind or rain most to fear? My family's mostly in the northwest of the island.

 

[skatesindreams]

Irma could come into Florida around Miami and run the entire peninsula to Georgia.

I'm not looking forward to the possibility; as we had "issues" after getting 5 inches of rain in just over a hour, during a "ordinary" thunderstorm 3 days ago!

 

[meggonzo]

Thanks for keeping us up to date @FGRSK8

 

[TOADS]

All the latest model runs are in and all except one have the same solution. Hurricane Irma will make a turn north of Cuba and slam into southeastern Florida in the area of Miami.

The hurricane could be a cat 4, possibily a cat 5 before moving into Miami. A direct hit on Miami with a storm of that strength will be nothing less than catastrophic. What can be even more of a concern is that Irma could then parallel the east coast of Florida all the way to Georgia.

The overall affect will be Miami in shambles and the Eastern third of Florida badly damaged by winds. Unlike Harvey, the system should move along and not stall, thus the rainfall will be on the order of 6-12" which in the scheme of things is not too serious.

FEMA is going to have one serious problem.

 

[Debbie S]

(((people in FL)))

Was Hurricane Andrew in 92 a Cat 5?