Who Do You Think Will Opt Out of Worlds?

[Mrs. P]

I'm confused, mate.

Chen was the top finisher at worlds in Helsinki in sixth place. Brown finished in 7th. Together, their total of 13 points earned the US three spots this season at worlds and the Olympic Games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_World_Figure_Skating_Championships#Men

I think it's more that Nathan was expected to finish in the top 3, especially after his 4CC win, basically would allow Jason to only have to finish in the top 10 (or even 11th or 12) behind the likes of Kolyada, Kovtun, etc. But when he didn't do that, Jason basically had to beat everyone other than those who finished above Nathan.

In fact, after the SP, even with a 93+ program, Jason was in 8th. Had he stayed there, the U.S. would have lost the third spot. Both of them contributed, no doubt, but Jason had to do more than I think people expected him to do.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I think it's more that Nathan was expected to finish in the top 3, especially after his 4CC win, basically would allow Jason to only have to finish in the top 10 (or even 11th or 12) behind the likes of Kolyada, Kovtun, etc. But when he didn't do that, Jason basically had to beat everyone other than those who finished above Nathan.

In fact, after the SP, even with a 93+ program, Jason was in 8th. Had he stayed there, the U.S. would have lost the third spot. Both of them contributed, no doubt, but Jason had to do more than I think people expected him to do.

From memory, Nathan was having boot issues in Helsinki.

With all those quad attempts, his equipment really takes a beating.

Here's hoping he can make the podium in Milan.

 

[Mrs. P]

From memory, Nathan was having boot issues in Helsinki.

With all those quads, his equipment really takes a beating.

Here's hoping he can make the podium in Milan.

Yeah, not saying Nathan didn't have valid reasons for his issues, but I think Jason has proven that he can contribute to three spots. It's less crucial here now that Vincent seem to have been peaking at the right time and Nathan will likely redeem himself with a Worlds podium finish, but again, it would be nice to have back-up in case someone struggles, be it Adam or Jason.

On the other hand, I kind agree with the sentiment that Ross should have gotten SOMETHING with that silver place finish at Nationals.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Yeah, not saying Nathan didn't have valid reasons for his issues, but I think Jason has proven that he can contribute to three spots. It's less crucial here now that Vincent seem to have been peaking at the right time and Nathan will likely redeem himself with a Worlds podium finish, but again, it would be nice to have back-up in case someone struggles.

At least the point system allows countries the potential of three spots, where before 1997, skaters or teams had to make the podium for that to happen.

 

[Mrs. P]

At least the point system allows countries the potential of three spots, where before 1997, skaters or teams had to make the podium for that to happen.

You mean because of ordinals made it tough for skaters to move much after the SP?

Edited: Oh the whole 13 for 3 spots/28 for 2 spots point system was implemented in 1997?

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

You mean because of ordinals made it tough for skaters to move much after the SP?

No, in 1997, the ISU changed the team qualification system for worlds and Europeans.
Prior to that, the top individual result would determine how many skaters went to next year's world or European championships.

Athletes final placings would earn their country a certain number of points.

One example is if a country has a skater finish sixth, and one seventh, their point total (13 points) would allow three skaters in the same event the next season.

I'll see if I can find the full description for you at some point, as it is quite involved.

 

[jlai]

I think it's more that Nathan was expected to finish in the top 3, especially after his 4CC win, basically would allow Jason to only have to finish in the top 10 (or even 11th or 12) behind the likes of Kolyada, Kovtun, etc. But when he didn't do that, Jason basically had to beat everyone other than those who finished above Nathan.

In fact, after the SP, even with a 93+ program, Jason was in 8th. Had he stayed there, the U.S. would have lost the third spot. Both of them contributed, no doubt, but Jason had to do more than I think people expected him to do.

Personally I find the expectation that Nathan should win worlds or medal at first world to be a bit much, just like it's a lot to ask Nathan to win the OGM in the second senior year. 6th in first worlds was a good outing. It's more like they expected more of him than others who went to worlds first time.

Other than Jin and Hanyu, who medalled at first worlds? Not even Chan did.

On another note, US does NOT have a history of men successful at worlds at a young age, for whatever reasons. Evan medalled at worlds in first try but he was 19 by then. Nathan was 17 at first worlds.

 

[Mrs. P]

Personally I find the expectation that Nathan should win worlds or medal at first world to be a bit much, just like it's a lot to ask Nathan to win the OGM in the second senior year. 6th in first worlds was a good outing. It's more like they expected more of him than others who went to worlds first time.

Other than Jin and Hanyu, who medalled at first worlds? Not even Chan did.

On another note, US does NOT have a history of men successful at worlds at a young age, for whatever reasons.

Technically, 2015 Worlds was Jason's debut since he did not compete in 2014. But it didn't really feel like a debut since he did the Olympics the year before. But I get your point.

I never had huge expectations with Nathan really, but I think the fact he won 4CC beating Hanyu is what prompted the podium placement expectation at Worlds.
***

Anyway, trying to go back to the topic -- do we have a sense of which ladies might skip? Maybe Carolina?

Ice Dance will be a pretty full field I think. I think Virtue and Moir will be the only top team who will not be there. That means an extra medal opportunity for someone. Could see a two-U.S. team podium a la 2016, but it would be kinda neat for Cappelini/Lanotte to get a medal at home worlds.

EDITED:

No, in 1997, the ISU changed the team qualification system for worlds and Europeans.
Prior to that, the top individual result would determine how many skaters went to next year's world or European championships.

Athletes final placings would earn their country a certain number of points.

One example is if a country has a skater finish sixth, and one seventh, their point total (13 points) would allow three skaters in the same event the next season.

I'll see if I can find the full description for you at some point, as it is quite involved.

Thanks for this explanation! I actually had wondered why certain teams only had a certain number of spots in the 1990s -- I hadn't realized there was a different system in place.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Personally I find the expectation that Nathan should win worlds or medal at first world to be a bit much, just like it's a lot to ask Nathan to win the OGM in the second senior year. 6th in first worlds was a good outing. It's more like they expected more of him than others who went to worlds first time.

Other than Jin and Hanyu, who medalled at first worlds? Not even Chan did.

On another note, US does NOT have a history of men successful at worlds at a young age, for whatever reasons. Evan medalled at worlds in first try but he was 19 by then. Nathan was 17 at first worlds.

Conversely, Rudy Galindo medalled at his first and only world championship, which was wonderful to see.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Anyway, trying to go back to the topic -- do we have a sense of which ladies might skip? Maybe Carolina?

I would think all of the Italians would want to be in Milan.

Kostner, Marchei / Hotarek, and Cappellini & Lanotte, would be definite medal hopes on home ice.

 

[Mrs. P]

I would think all of the Italians would want to be in Milan.

Kostner, Marchei / Hotarek, and Cappellini & Lanotte, would be definite medal hopes on home ice.

Ha, I don't know why I wouldn't think Carolina wouldn't want to compete at her home country. It's 4 a.m here. LOL

On the other hand Carolina's never fared great at home either.

 

[jlai]

Conversely, Rudy Galindo medalled at his first and only world championship, which was wonderful to see.

That wasn't his first year at senior however. In fact that was his last year. Still a good happy ending

Evan medaled at first worlds but he already did some senior events for couple of seasons.

 

[Erin]

Conversely, Rudy Galindo medalled at his first and only world championship, which was wonderful to see.

First and only year in singles, but of course he had competed twice at Worlds before in pairs

 

[Tavi]

Jason will give extra insurance, in any case, should he be sent. In fact, he may have an interesting advantage given that he won't have any of the post-Olympics hangover others might have. Not to mention that he'll be completely under the radar, which is a really good spot for him.

If Javi/Patrick/Yuzu don't show up it would be cool to see all three U.S. men in the top six, I think it's totally possible. That would be possible with Adam or Jason --but Jason has the extra PCS to get there. I found it interesting that Adam didn't really get Jason's "artist" PCS. Jason's PCS average is 91.00. (Compared to 87.87 for Nathan, 86.12 for Adam and 75.12 for Vincent).

Actually it's pretty complementary to Vincent. Vincent scores high TES and Jason scores high PCS and obviously Nathan will likely lead the team in overall score.

But we'll see. I know it seems like Adam isn't going to go, but a lot of folks thought Jeremy wasn't going to go after Sochi and he did.

Regarding karne's point, Nathan basically finished way lower than expected in 6th so Jason basically had no room for error and had to basically be the best of the "non-top 6" and he was.

I agree it’s not a sure thing Adam will withdraw from Worlds. In declining the NBC job, he said he loves being part of Team USA and representing his country. That suggests to me that he may not yet be ready to transition away from competitive skating, and that there’s a good chance he won’t withdraw from Worlds unless he’s absolutely exhausted.

As to Worlds last year, many people seem quick to blame Nathan’s lower than expected 6th place finish on boot problems (which may well be true), but far fewer are willing to credit Jason with outperforming expectations and placing 7th in a stellar field less than 4 months after being diagnosed with a stress fracture.

 

[Mrs. P]

I agree it’s not a sure thing Adam will withdraw from Worlds. In declining the NBC job, he said he loves being part of Team USA and representing his country. That suggests to me that he may not yet be ready to transition away from competitive skating, and that there’s a good chance he won’t withdraw from Worlds unless he’s absolutely exhausted.

Consider the fact that he actually took the job before realizing that he would lose his Olympic athlete credential, which tells me it's more that he wanted to enjoy the rest of his Olympic experience and cheering for his teammates and less about competing. think Adam did three solid performances here and I don't think it's crazy for him to decide to end on a good note rather than try to peak again at Worlds.

I agree with others it's a 50-50 tossup.

 

[Erin]

Consider the fact that he actually took the job before realizing that he would lose his Olympic athlete credential, which tells me it's more that he wanted to enjoy the rest of his Olympic experience and cheering for his teammates and less about competing.

I'm not sure that he did take the job. He said he learned about the job from hearing about it on twitter. I think the early reports of them hiring him were jumping the gun.

That said, I do agree it's a 50-50 tossup on whether we see him at Worlds or not.

 

[rfisher]

I would imagine Spain would greatly encourage Javi to go to Worlds. He would be able to get Spain spots for next year's Worlds.

It's not like they have somebody to really fill them. Javi can't carry Spain forever. He's done his part. Many, many times.

 

[SmallFairy]

Misha Ge posted a photo of himself on IG on skates in the ice, writing: I'm not done yet...
Whatever that means

 

[vesperholly]

Conversely, Rudy Galindo medalled at his first and only world championship, which was wonderful to see.

He did finish 5th at 89 and 90 Worlds with Kristi

 

[Tavi]

Consider the fact that he actually took the job before realizing that he would lose his Olympic athlete credential, which tells me it's more that he wanted to enjoy the rest of his Olympic experience and cheering for his teammates and less about competing. think Adam did three solid performances here and I don't think it's crazy for him to decide to end on a good note rather than try to peak again at Worlds.

I agree with others it's a 50-50 tossup.

Yeah, I think 50-50 is about right.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

He did finish 5th at 89 and 90 Worlds with Kristi

I was always a little bit sorry they never stayed through until 1992 as a team.

But as a singles skater, Rudi won an individual world medal in 1996 which was both unexpected and fantastic at the same time.

 

[AxelAnnie]

Duhamel and Radford will not go.
And Javi has washed his hands from figure skating.

Rude!

 

[Bellanca]

I'm not sure that he did take the job. He said he learned about the job from hearing about it on twitter. I think the early reports of them hiring him were jumping the gun.

And, of course, Christine Brennan was all over it...

 

[Sylvia]

Rude!

No, Javier was quoted as saying that in the medalists' press conference: https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/964384143604772870

Fernandez: At the end of the day, we are all friends and good competitors. I'm about to wash my hands of figure skating and they are going to keep going. It's exciting to see them compete well in the future. We are still holding our own, right Yuzu?

 

[AxelAnnie]

He actually said he was washing his hands of fugure skating? I find that impossible.

 

[Clay]

There's another article out there in Spanish that says Javi will not do the Olympics again and will not do full seasons. He will keep competing. This is consistent with his possible interest in winning one more European title, which he expressed this year at Europeans.

 

[screech]

Other than Jin and Hanyu, who medalled at first worlds? Not even Chan did.

On another note, US does NOT have a history of men successful at worlds at a young age, for whatever reasons. Evan medalled at worlds in first try but he was 19 by then. Nathan was 17 at first worlds.

I could have missed some, but going back the last 20 years or so, in addition to Jin and Hanyu:
Tatsuki Machida (2014)
Artur Gachinski (2011)
Evan Lysacek (2005)
Evgeni Plushenko (1998)
Alexei Yagudin (1997)

 

[jlai]

I could have missed some, but going back the last 20 years or so, in addition to Jin and Hanyu:
Tatsuki Machida (2014)
Artur Gachinski (2011)
Evan Lysacek (2005)
Evgeni Plushenko (1998)
Alexei Yagudin (1997)

Yes, they did but some of them actually didn't make senior debut that same year. So they had senior experience before the season during which they went to worlds and medalled. For instance, Evan went to 2 4ccs before even the season when he went to worlds. Machida was a senior veteran by the time he got sent. Yagudin did Euros the year before. Plushy had a full grp season the year before. Only Gachinski is considered "newbie senior" (though he went to some sr bs the season before) the year he went to worlds and medalled.

 

[screech]

Yes, they did but some of them actually didn't make senior debut that same year. So they had senior experience before the season during which they went to worlds and medalled. For instance, Evan went to 2 4ccs before even the season when he went to worlds. Machida was a senior veteran by the time he got sent. Yagudin did Euros the year before. Plushy had a full grp season the year before. Only Gachinski is considered "newbie senior" (though he went to some sr bs the season before) the year he went to worlds and medalled.

True, however your original post questioned who medalled at their first Worlds, not who medalled at worlds their first year in senior competition.

 

[jlai]

True, however your original post questioned who medalled at their first Worlds, not who medalled at worlds their first year in senior competition.

Yes I asked the question and the answer is mostly skaters who have had more senior experience.