What will Dance field look like in 2018-19?

[VGThuy]

The Shibs, hopefully, will do well this season and then retire. I think they could benefit from a little independence.

Independence from what? They seem pretty content with their lives at the moment and where they're going.

It's interesting people think the Shibs will retire after 2018. People thought they would retire or wouldn't make it another four years after 2014 as well. Maia is only 23 and not much older than some of the recent male seniors in the U.S. Alex is a bit older but will be 30 by 2022, which isn't that old in ice dance years. I do think the competition will only get more difficult by 2022 and they have to think about whether they want to keep up the stress of competition both internationally and domestically, and whether they want to take advantage of other, newer opportunities that seem to be opening up for them. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if they kept competing.

 

[skatingguy]

The one million dollar question I vote for an Asian team. If they're clever, Chinese.

If the Chinese are paying attention, there will be a team showing up on Marie-France's doorstep the day after the World Championships end. The Chinese are hosting in four years, as I'm sure everyone knows, and I would imagine that they'd like to compete for a medal in the team event. They've got a chance this year, but four years from now, a stronger dance team (top 10) would be a big boost to their medal hopes.

 

[starrynight]

Reminds me a bit like how everyone rushed to join Marina Zoueva's group after DW and VM left.

 

[SLIVER]

Don't think we should fall into the trap that Montreal is the be all and end all of all dance schools.
That error has made been made many times, Dubova, Linichuk, Canton and even Pasquale had about 14 very strong teams not long ago.
Montreal is amazing and the mix of French and North Am schools works so well but V/M and P/C are generational talents and not just products of MTL.
In fact I think if they don't make the error of taking on more teams next year, their school will be a much bigger success, h/d and the Danes have tons more room to grow and need to be the centre of attention of their coaches.
I don't buy that everyone can get exactly the same attention, it's just not humanly possible. Same ice time maybe but it's not possible to be invested in all the teams in the same way.
Zazoui was on the cusp of the same, with Delobel, Pechalat, then it all became too much when she took on Cappellini too, who hated it and didn't even last a whole season. A year later the school was pretty much done. Ice dance is super fickle, not taking anything away from MTL but other centres need developing too and can do work that is just as good.

 

[caseyedwards]

If the Chinese are paying attention, there will be a team showing up on Marie-France's doorstep the day after the World Championships end. The Chinese are hosting in four years, as I'm sure everyone knows, and I would imagine that they'd like to compete for a medal in the team event. They've got a chance this year, but four years from now, a stronger dance team (top 10) would be a big boost to their medal hopes.

Almost All choreo for Chinese dance has been done by krylova and camerlengo so they surely know North America is where they must go and will be going to dubreuil!

 

[dramagrrl]

If Gilles and Poirier think they are going to have a smooth quad as Canadian champions (especially if/once WP retire), they should already start watching their backs. Two Montreal teams - current two-time junior Canadian champions Lajoie/Lagha and senior fourth-place team Soucisse/Firus - are progressing extremely rapidly, while GP have been stalled for (IMO) at least the past two seasons and definitely this season.

 

[starrynight]

G/Ps scores at Canadian Nationals seemed to indicate the Canadian fed is pushing them hard though.

 

[caseyedwards]

Don't think we should fall into the trap that Montreal is the be all and end all of all dance schools.
That error has made been made many times, Dubova, Linichuk, Canton and even Pasquale had about 14 very strong teams not long ago.
Montreal is amazing and the mix of French and North Am schools works so well but V/M and P/C are generational talents and not just products of MTL.
In fact I think if they don't make the error of taking on more teams next year, their school will be a much bigger success, h/d and the Danes have tons more room to grow and need to be the centre of attention of their coaches.
I don't buy that everyone can get exactly the same attention, it's just not humanly possible. Same ice time maybe but it's not possible to be invested in all the teams in the same way.
Zazoui was on the cusp of the same, with Delobel, Pechalat, then it all became too much when she took on Cappellini too, who hated it and didn't even last a whole season. A year later the school was pretty much done. Ice dance is super fickle, not taking anything away from MTL but other centres need developing too and can do work that is just as good.

Of teams going to Euros 5 are Dubreuil but 5 are also Novi. 4 are Canton. I think the teams know they will be dealing with very busy people but it’s about a seal of approval! Better to be in any North American school then be training in Paris or Kiev! Everyone with power in ice dance is going to schmoozing in Montreal or novi so why would anyone want to be in Moscow? You aren’t in the epicenter!

 

[RoseRed]

The one million dollar question I vote for an Asian team. If they're clever, Chinese.

That would make sense, especially since they already have a young Japanese team.

And to other people's points, I'm thinking one new senior team, not five. Which would be fine, since they would be effectively taking Tessa and Scott's "spot". Same total number of teams.

And of course not all the teams have identical attention in the training. There are four main coaches, Sam Chouinard also works with teams on and off the ice. They have 11 full time teams that I know of, which is reasonable for that number of coaches, I think. For example, Pascal Denis works a lot with the younger teams, and isn't listed for the top senior teams (V/M, P/C, H/D, FB/S or S/F). And FB/S have him listed as a former coach.

 

[manhn]

If we had this thread exactly four years ago, not that many would have expected the return of V&M, the split of I&K, the split of the Spanish team, the retirement of P&I, and the continued careers of W&P, C&L and B&S. I actually thought dance this past quad was pretty stable. Pairs, on the other hand, was all over the place.

 

[caseyedwards]

Not once did a Russian team medal at gpf or worlds and it’s still considered political player in dance! Why? You saw the end of the Russian ice dance program! Huge!

 

[Vagabond]

If we had this thread exactly four years ago, not that many would have expected the return of V&M, the split of I&K, the split of the Spanish team, the retirement of P&I, and the continued careers of W&P, C&L and B&S. I actually thought dance this past quad was pretty stable. Pairs, on the other hand, was all over the place.

If we had had this thread exactly four years ago, who would have predicted that within fifteen months Pappadakis and Cizeron would be World Champions? Their mothers, maybe. That's two people.

 

[dramagrrl]

G/Ps scores at Canadian Nationals seemed to indicate the Canadian fed is pushing them hard though.

Not really. The judges basically did everything in their power to get Weaver and Poje back in silver medal spot by giving them an enormous score in the FD while GP were around seven full points behind. If Andrew hadn’t had such a huge mistake in the SD, forcing the judges to give GP a sizeable lead, GP would have ended up third, as usual.

Will SC politik for GP more if/when they are Canada’s highest ranked dance team? Yes, very likely. Will they also drop them like a hot potato if a rising young team starts getting similar marks internationally? Very probably.

 

[skatingguy]

Not really. The judges basically did everything in their power to get Weaver and Poje back in silver medal spot by giving them an enormous score in the FD while GP were around seven full points behind. If Andrew hadn’t had such a huge mistake in the SD, forcing the judges to give GP a sizeable lead, GP would have ended up third, as usual.

Keep in mind that Piper made a mistake in the free dance on the twizzles that cost them a few points and then the silver would not have been so close.

 

[Bigbird]

Dmitri will not skate with Elena I.
That's almost against everything he stands for
With Victoria ? Why ? Maybe qhe could continue with Nikita if his mental allows him too.

Bobrova would never allow that to happen. She is still more than a little annoyed that this little lazy, chubby ice dancer, with a little dollop of talent and grit, has two Olympic medals to her one.

 

[cocotaffy]

If we had had this thread exactly four years ago, who would have predicted that within fifteen months Pappadakis and Cizeron would be World Champions? Their mothers, maybe. That's two people.

I'd actually say four people including the dads
But P/C are staying in the game, they said so during a Q&A this season.
I can see W/P staying till Montreal World. G/P are definitely gonna try to become Canada number 1.

 

[Vagabond]

I'm guessing the dads were more realistic. Two or three years.

 

[legjumper]

Assuming the retirement of Weaver/Poje, I think Gilles/Poirier are positioned to become the new Canadian leaders, at least for the next season or two. But with the rapid improvements of both Soucisse/Firus and Lajoie/Lagha, G/P obviously won't be able to rest on their laurels over the next four years. As G/P seem unusually vulnerable to the quality of their program concepts (e.g., huge marks for last season's tango, weak marks for this season's Perry Mason), it's not implausible that by 2022, the Canadian ice dance scene could be much like the current American one, with three teams neck-and-neck internationally even though one looked like the presumptive leader at the beginning of the quad.

 

[casken]

Dmitri will not skate with Elena I.
That's almost against everything he stands for
With Victoria ? Why ? Maybe qhe could continue with Nikita if his mental allows him too.

Monko comeback?

 

[slipchuk]

I honestly think Gilles & Poirier will never be Canadian #1. I see Weaver & Poje staying until atleast the Montreal worlds in 2020. BTW if they arent used in the Team Event at the Games I see a good shot they stay in for 2022. Then if W&P retire after 2020, I think teams like Soucisse & Firus (or atleast Soucisse & Firus) will have overtaken Gilles & Poirier already. IMO they have already peaked and it isnt that good.

The only thing they have going in their favor is Paul Poirier has many friends in Skate Canada. I used to be good friends with one of his uncles, and I have friends in Toronto with inside info of a lot that goes on, so I can confirm that for a fact, and it is explains much of his longtime overscoring and overrating in Canada, which continues to this day, but at a certain point there is also so much politics can do, and you tire of it with someone you can only take so far.

 

[MarieM]

IMO Hubbell&Donohue will emerge at the top after this season, if not this season. And it'll be hard to get them out of the top.
I have high hopes for Stepanova, but IMO, they need another technical coach to help her skate better.
P&Cizeron will have to explore another genra, because as good as they are, they're going to take some hit for it in the next quad.

I don't see any young teams emerging at the moment, even in the russian dancers, because IMO, there is not one training center that is good enough at the moment. Some are getting there, but it's going to take at least 4 years.

 

[Rafter]

I honestly think Gilles & Poirier will never be Canadian #1. I see Weaver & Poje staying until atleast the Montreal worlds in 2020. BTW if they arent used in the Team Event at the Games I see a good shot they stay in for 2022. Then if W&P retire after 2020, I think teams like Soucisse & Firus (or atleast Soucisse & Firus) will have overtaken Gilles & Poirier already. IMO they have already peaked and it isnt that good.

The only thing they have going in their favor is Paul Poirier has many friends in Skate Canada. I used to be good friends with one of his uncles, and I have friends in Toronto with inside info of a lot that goes on, so I can confirm that for a fact, and it is explains much of his longtime overscoring and overrating in Canada, which continues to this day, but at a certain point there is also so much politics can do, and you tire of it with someone you can only take so far.

Poirier does or Carol Lane does?

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Weaver and Poje stay until 2020. I can also see either Soucisse & Firus or Lajoie & Lagha surpassing G&P. Especially if G&P don’t start feeling the love from international judges.

 

[slipchuk]

I agree it as much Carol Lane as Poirier, or more. Carol Lane also has a TON of clout high up in Skate Canada.

I agree with all you said. I really dont see G&P ever becoming Canadian #1 but we will see.

MarieM I agree with you on Hubbell & Donohue. Although overtaking P&C if they stay wont be easy, but it could happen if P&C's style falls out of favor somewhat. I do expect them to start a reign as the U.S #1 atleast.

 

[chapis]

What does H/D need to win over P/C? What are their shortcomings compared to P/C?

 

[Debbie S]

P&Cizeron will have to explore another genra,

So will H/D. They can't do a blues again for the 3rd time and they're pretty much tapped out on the slow, pretty, lovey-dovey programs. I don't see them staying for another full quad, maybe 2 more years until Montreal Worlds, but that will probably depend on them making enough money from comps and shows to support their training. They've talked about the financial difficulties of training in Canada where their visas don't allow them to work.

What does H/D need to win over P/C? What are their shortcomings compared to P/C?

They need more transitions and more complex choreo, in addition to branching out to new genres (and getting their levels). Their current FD brings the heat and is a good vehicle for them, but the construction could be better. The pattern tends to take them around in circles, not really covering the whole ice.

It will be interesting to see where the style preferences go over the next quad. This quad, there has been a shift toward slow/pretty/tinkly programs. While the skating has been gorgeous, it's gotten a little boring. I would like to see a shift back toward more drama and excitement of the D/W variety. I think D/W showed that you can have amazing skating combined with more exciting music/themes.

 

[sap5]

I think D/W showed that you can have amazing skating combined with more exciting music/themes.

There have been many, many teams that have shown this possibility.

 

[legjumper]

What does H/D need to win over P/C? What are their shortcomings compared to P/C?

They need more transitions and more complex choreo, in addition to branching out to new genres (and getting their levels). Their current FD brings the heat and is a good vehicle for them, but the construction could be better. The pattern tends to take them around in circles, not really covering the whole ice.

Totally agree with @Debbie S. Of the top three teams at U.S. Nationals, H/D had the best skating skills and the simplest choreography/simplest ice coverage in both programs. I felt this way seeing those three teams live at 2016 Worlds as well.

Directly in comparison to P/C, I see H/D at a disadvantage in the areas of agility and lightness (as well as the aforementioned complexity). Watching P/C skate is like watching the wind flow over and wrap around rocks, trees, a stream...air in continual motion. Watching H/D skate is...not. H/D have a lot of power in their skating, but it comes with a certain amount of heaviness...a sort of "the train stays on the track" feeling. Perhaps a better comparison here would be to Virtue/Moir - a team that also has a more powerful, heavier look than P/C but is also hugely agile. The way V/M are able to turn and maneuver their bodies while still delivering power is incredible; if H/D could move like that, they would. But they don't. Relative to both P/C and V/M, H/D don't have the same range of upper body expression - I don't mean the superficial things like how they hold their arms, but the complexity of how their upper bodies can move and express. Both P/C and V/M have much more range there.

 

[casken]

I think H&D would have to transform into different people to be able to overtake P&C.

If the politics of the #1 US dance team walking right into 9.50+ PCS no matter what continues, (Remember when C&B were the recipients of that?) I guess H&D can put themselves close enough to take advantage of a big error, or suspicious level calls against P&C.

 

[chapis]

I think H&D would have to transform into different people to be able to overtake P&C.

What do you mean? Their skating skills are not good enough?

 

[casken]

What do you mean? Their skating skills are not good enough?

Because of their body types, they'll never have the effortlessness or ease, IMO.